Friday, February 3, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI: Prop Joe

I'm Proposition Joe. You fuck with me, I'll kill your whole family.
For most people the Super Bowl is an excuse. An excuse to pretend to care about football, an excuse to have a party, an excuse to drink, an excuse to gamble, and an excuse to hope for passing glances at Gisele watching from a luxury box. If you need an excuse for any of those things, I feel bad for you.
Perhaps the best part about Prop Joe isn't that he's the coolest character in the Wire. He isn't even in the Top 5, but people all have nothing but positive things to say about him. The reason is that he's a character that can be put in any video game ever made. He's reassuring, and a guy that can get you (or your video game character) what you need. I can easily picture stopping into his mushroom hut to buy a womp womp in Mario Party or purchasing armor from him in Dragon Age or mimicking his dancing in Dance Dance Revolution. Think of any video game you can and Prop Joe fits in. 
But what about those who aren't Giants or Pats fans? The tried and true football fans whose teams fell barely short, disappointingly short, or were never close? To add some joy to this game for people that obsess about football, there are prop bets. You can bet on virtually every aspect of the Super Bowl. I picked some nice ones to pay attention to. All lines are courtesy of

Coin Toss 
Heads  -101
Tails  -101

Bet: Tails never fails.

Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off
Giants  -220
Patriots  170

Bet: Pats don't want the ball first. The Giants could trip things up by deferring if they win, but don't mess with success. Giants get the ball.

Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times w/o Other Team
Scoring (Conversions Excluded) 
Yes  -170
No  140

Bet: Seem like odd odds? Don't be fooled. A team scoring 3 times in a row is more common than you think. Stay away.

First Touchdown of the Game will be 
Passing Touchdown -200
Any Other Touchdown 160

Bet: While I think the first TD will be passing, pretty favorable odds if one of these teams can rush, QB sneak, defensive turnover, or kick/punt return their way to the end zone.

Jersey Number of Player to Score First Touchdown in Super 
Bowl XLVI 
Jersey Number o80.5(-110)
Jersey Number u80.5(-120)

Bet: The play makers in this game are all receivers. Whatever you heard about Rob Gronkowski's (#87) injury leading up to the game, rest assured he'll have enough adrenaline going to be around for the first TD.

Eli Manning - Will he Throw a 3rd Quarter Touchdown Pass - 
Must Play 
Yes  160
No  -200

Bet: Now, the Pats will probably be getting the ball out of halftime, and Madonna's 30 minute halftime show won't help, but seems like good odds to take.

Ahmad Bradshaw - Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt - Must 
Play (No Rush Attempt - Under is Winner) 
Yards on 1st Attempt o3.5(+105)
Yards on 1st Attempt u3.5(-135)

Bet: The Giants have a good play action game, and while the Pats D has been playoff strong, it's not too much to ask Bradshaw to bust off a 4 yard carry for his first touch.

Brandon Jacobs - Will he Play Soft - Must Play (debatable) 
Yes  180
No  -240

Bet: Ok, I made that up. How there isn't a highlight every game of Jacobs demolishing some defensive back is a mystery to me. 

Henry Hynoski - Total Rushing + Receiving Yards - Must Play 
(No Rush Attempt or No Reception - Under is Winner) 
Rushing+Receiving Yards o4.5(-130)
Rushing+Receiving Yards u4.5(Even)

Bet: This is the Gary Russell Award pick from Cousin Sal on the BS Report. Bascially if Hynoski touches the ball, you win. We need to start getting into some more dumber bets.

Victor Cruz - Will he Score a Touchdown - Must Play 
Yes  120
No  -150

Bet: I don't like Victor Cruz from an overall production standpoint in the Super Bowl. Outside of some spectacular plays, teams have sort have made him disappear from time to time. He's like a greater version of Torrey Smith. But + odds that he'll score a touchdown? Sure.

Tom Brady - Total Passing Yards - Must Play 
Total Passing Yards o320.5(-115)
Total Passing Yards u320.5(-115)

Bet: Not great odds, but this is an easy under. If Tom Terrific does throw for over 320, the Pats are losing.

Tom Brady - Will he Score a RUSHING Touchdown - Must Play 
Yes  450
No  -700

Bet: Don't knock Brady's sneak game. He showed in Baltimore he'll do what it takes to get those 6 points. And if you think he wouldn't be inclined to put the game away by jumping into the end zone and getting revenge on the team that gave him his greatest defeat ever...well, you don't know Tom Brady.

Deion Branch - Will he Score a Touchdown - Must Play
Yes  175
No  -220

Bet: He's a former Super Bowl MVP. Belichick loves this symmetry stuff.

Rob Gronkowski - Will he Score a Touchdown in the 1st Half - 
Must Play 
Yes  160
No  -200

Bet: If he does score, it'll be a 1st Half score.

Aaron Hernandez - Total Receptions - Must Play (No 
Receptions - Under is Winner) 
Receptions  o5.5(-115)
Receptions  u5.5(-115)

Bet: I'm not guaranteeing if Gronk is less than 100% Hernandez is just going to turn in a Gronk like performance. If the Giants can have Antrel Rolle focus on Hernandez, that will cause some difficulties. But the tightends are just too vital to the Pats offense that I can't see Hernandez pulling in less than 6 receptions.

Chad Ochocinco - Will He Have At Least 1 Reception - Must 
Yes  120
No  -150

Bet: No. Just no. Ocho has been a non-factor all year. Keep in mind that this was a player, when he was Chad Johnson, that was putting together a Hall of Fame resume. Now, he's a laughable bet with really next to no chance of making an impact positive impact in the Super Bowl! He can't learn the playbook, know where to be on the field, and aside from buying the team Dr. Dre Beats headphones, really has done nothing. With how his career is unraveling along with Terrell Owens, make note you "Give me the Damn Ball" receivers. Your time is nigh.

Who Will Have More on Feb 5th 2012 - Listed Players Must 
Play (Barclays Premier League) 
Wayne Rooney (Manchester United) Goals
(Soccer)  0(+220)
Brandon Jacobs (Giants) Touchdowns 0(-300)

Bet: Rooney has been off his game, but with Man U in a tie for first in the Premier League with Man City against a wobbly Chelsea squad, I could see #10 hitting the back of the net. Now if Jacobs does score, you're in trouble.

Super Bowl XLVI MVP (All Bets Action) (Dead Heat Rule 
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) 8-1
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) 15-1

Bet: It's too easy/boring to pick QB's so I'm not going to do that. It's not easy to dethrone the QB as MVP if you're a TE, but if Gronk can have a Gronk game, paired with his injury buzz; that's an MVP. Terrell Owens would have won MVP if the Eagles, you know, won the game. Bradshaw has been getting dumped on by a lot of odds makers, but he's a nice potential MVP. Truth be told, I would have liked to vote for a Giants defensive lineman like Osi Umenyiora who always makes big plays, but all I could get were 6-1 odds in the Field category. No thanks.

Player to score the 1st 
Touchdown (All Bets Action)
Jake Ballard (Giants) 20-1
Julian Edelman (Patriots) 40-1

Bet: Ah, the bet that gave me my biggest money win in my prop gambling life. Jordy Nelson last year (+1500). Normally for this I like to go with double digit odds because no one really knows, and who's going to be excited winning a 1st TD bet with Hakeem Nicks? I was on the Manningham bet bus, but with all the buzz of him being covered by Julian Edelman, I feel like it's too over done. So I'm taking higher odds and Jake Ballard. Speaking of Edelman, he catches, he returns kicks, he runs a little, and he's playing defense! That's a lot of ways to score a TD.

Tom Brady (Patriots) Total Passing Yards in Super Bowl XLVI
241-260 Passing Yards 10-1

Bet: There's no real reason to suspect Brady will go off in this game. He can manage it, have good numbers, no turnovers and win. But throwing for 350 yards? That would be surprising. This range of passing yards is the last before they drop to 8-1 and back up at the 341 passing yard mark.

Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) Total Rushing Yards in Super Bowl 
151-160 Rushing Yards 100-1
161-170 Rushing Yards 100-1
171-185 Rushing Yards 100-1
186-200 Rushing Yards 100-1
201 or More Rushing Yards 100-1

Bet: We're going roulette style on this one. Best 100-1 odds you'll find this year. Bradshaw gets going early, busts a couple big early runs and a late one to put the game away? Take your lump sum amount and spread it out to every range, mayyyyybe stopping at 186 and above, but at 100-1, why not?

Unfortunately I can't access the more ridiculous novelty prop bets. But from what I can remember I like: Kelly Clarkson and the under on the National Anthem, Kelly Clarkson at no mid-drift exposed (lock of the game), Madonna not wearing a jersey during the halftime show, the Gatorade bath will be blue, and the MVP will thank his teammates first.

As for the actual game? Well as an Eagles fan, I'm a loser either way, but if it's between Eli getting his second and Tom getting his fourth, I'd like the Pats to win. Sadly, it may play out differently.

Giants 31 Patriots 27

Gambling is a 27 point favorite to beat your humble narrator.

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