FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 5

Matt Schaub's job and his jersey are under fire in Houston. (cbssports.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Cute is what I thought when I heard that Houston Texans' fans were burning Matt Schaub jerseys after the Texans blew a 17 point lead and lost in overtime to the road weary Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. First off, you own a Matt Schaub jersey? Good thing there aren't any world class players on your team like Arian Foster or J.J. Watt. You opt for Schaub? #Smrt decision (h/t Keith Law).

Second, I found it cute that a franchise that has existed for 12 years had to suffer for 9 long seasons before they became one of the best teams in football. I understand the frustration and I respect the right to vent and boo, but burning jerseys? That's a bit much. That's reserved for fans that have been much more long suffering than the Texans (Google: Cleveland Cavaliers). I'm not passing judgment, believe me, I know what it's like to have a couple of idiots immediately brand your fan base. I'm sure if any Texans' fans are reading this, they're shaking their head at how stupid this was, but for me it was cute.

What the takeaway should be from Matt Schaub's critical interception in Sunday's game is that this is a franchise that is getting older. For the past 7 years the Texans have waited and begged and pleaded for Schaub to become something more than just a league average quarterback. Yes, you can win with league average, especially after the Texans developed one of the best defenses in the league, but this waiting period for Schaub is ultimately hurting them. Getting rid of him after 2 or 3 years would have been a bit hasty, but 5 or 6 years - now you have enough on the guy to make a clear decision. The Texans, however, decided to wait.

Sunday's game might have been the breaking point for the fans, but it should also have made a big impression on the Texans' GM Rick Smith. The window on this team is slowly closing. Andre Johnson's injuries are piling up, Arian Foster is slowing down, and the thing with a good defense is once you have one, then other teams come and get your players. Not that J.J. Watt is going anywhere but glue guys that make the defense strong all around get paid more money and make it more difficult for the team to hold onto them.

Unfortunately for the Texans, this is the NFL. Rarely do big-time trades happen, and even more rarely do big-time QBs hit the free agent market. If Schaub cannot rebound from this game and undoubtedly the most heat he has taken in Houston, then the Texans will have to look elsewhere. Developing a QB would have been a smart move a year or two ago, but as it stands, T.J. Yates is still the back-up and they didn't use a single pick in the 2013 draft on a QB. So now, they might have to take a look at Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman, or Michael Vick. There's the possibility of trading for a team's back-up, but again that seems to not be a step forward. 

What fantasy owners should take from this situation is that you don't want to spend your fantasy season riding a player that will ultimately drag you down. We are a quarter of the way through the season and there's still a lot of games to play. Players can turn it around, so if you feel strongly about a player - sure, stick with him, but if you have a C.J. Spiller on your hands don't sit on him and hope for the best. Make moves, go and overpay for a Frank Gore or Fred Jackson type. If you wait too long, you'll be out of the playoff hunt before you know it.

Hey, speaking of adding players, let's take a look at some Week 5 adds.

Robert Woods (10) has formed an immediate bond with E.J. Manuel (3) in Buffalo. (nfl.si.com)

Robert Woods, WR - BUF (13% owned) @ CLE

Sure Woods is a big, non-speedy receiver from USC. We've seen his type before. But Woods does appear to be different. He's playing virtually every snap, and using his quickness (i.e. not downfield speed) to make himself the preferred target of E.J. Manuel. 

Charles Clay, TE - MIA (48%) v BAL

Clay is taking advantage of his opportunity in Miami. The FB/TE is using his versatility and athleticism to get a lot of playing time alongside Ryan Tannehill. 

Justin Blackmon, WR - JAX (43%) +St. Louis Rams 

Back from suspension and back in our hearts, it's Justin Blackmon. Having Chad Henne throw him footballs does no one any favors, but Blackmon was on the end of double digit targets in each of his last 4 games last year. He has the potential to have huge games, but is worthy of a stash at this point.

Roy Helu, Jr., RB - WAS (13%) BYE

This is a precautionary add for any Alfred Morris owners. He dinged his ribs up, but fortunately has the Bye week to rest. I would expect Morris to be fine next week.

Brian Hoyer, QB - CLE (6%) v BUF

Hey, what can you say? When a guy plays well a guy plays well. Hoyer has led the Browns to two straight wins, and he comes from the Tom Brady School of Quarterbacking. He had a great game against a tough Bengals' defense, and now get's the terrible Bills' secondary on short rest. 

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Nate Washington, WR - TEN (16%) v KC

I fell for Washington's big play ability last year, and it got me nowhere, so I'm not buying this Nate Washington. This doesn't have as much to do with Jake Locker's injury as you may think. Ryan Fitzpatrick can air the ball out, but especially this week against the Chiefs along with Washington's inconsistency gives me reason to stay away.

THE 1%

Sean McGrath, TE - KC (0%) @ TEN

Thanks to injuries to the two TEs above him on the depth chart, the Bearded One is taking on a cult following in Kansas City. His catches have gone up each week, and we all know the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith will provide a lot of opportunities for McGrath.

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2013 Season Wrap-up and 100 Predictions/Comments for 2014

Chris Davis was fantasy's breakout star in 2013. (rantsports.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

I always feel bad near the end of the fantasy baseball season. I read, write, focus a lot of time and energy into it, but much like the actual baseball season, as the conclusion of the regular season approaches it becomes harder and harder to focus on. Especially when you try to write about it semi-monthly the approach, advise, and outlook of things becomes so narrowed. I mean if Craig Gentry is the 2nd most valuable player in the final two weeks of the season, what kind of advice can one really give? 

That's not to say I don't follow all of my teams through to the end. If you're going to dedicate so much time throughout the year, then it's foolish to just bail out of disinterest in the last week or so. Overall though this was a great fantasy year. I had a lot of nice calls early on, and outside of some mismanaged teams of my own, I finished in the top 3 in every league - including a clean sweep of my ESPN leagues (a championship auction and 12 team roto). Yes, I will be participating in some Yahoo! Winner's Leagues as well.

The best thing about fantasy baseball for me is that it's a perfect combination of endurance, skill, and luck to make it through a season. Predictions and hopes may be greatly exceeded or frustratingly underminded, but that's what playing this game is all about. Shockingly a lot of my predictions (the first time I've put them out for the public to see) weren't embarrassing. Even the round for round rankings I did had some decent insight. Every time a season comes to a close, I immediately miss fantasy, but at the same time you need to take a break and recharge your batteries and clear your head. 

So as we depart and before the free agents and trades and injuries and hopefully recoveries (Matt Harvey!) I want to close this season with 100 predictions/comments for 2014.

1	Mike Trout should be the #1 player taken in all drafts next year. No question.
2	Clayton Kershaw should be the #1 pitcher taken in all drafts next year. No question.
3	Chris Davis is no fluke. Even if his average dips a bit, he still has 50 HR potential. Top 10 player.
4	Yasiel Puig will be a good player, but people will draft him more for his first half of the season than his second.
5	It really was the year of the Cubans. Jose Fernandez should continue his dominance on the lowly Marlins.
6	Ryan Braun is a Top 15 player next year.
7	My starting SS in many leagues next year will be Andrelton Simmons.
8	Cliff Lee keeps on ticking. One of his best seasons to date.
9	I'm glad Manny Machado avoided serious injury, but his 2nd half slide can't be ignored.
10	Paul Goldschmidt, welcome to the Top 10 in the fantasy ranks for a long-time coming.
11	Pedro Alvarez will join the 40 HR club next year.
12	Edwin Encarnacion will bash 40 HR's next year too.
13	Albert Pujols returns in fine form. Looking like he did his last year in St. Louis.
14	Jason Kipnis avoided a 2nd half swoon. Showed us what kind of player he is.
15	Adam Jones is always under valued, but his high K/BB rate always gives me pause.
16	Josh Hamilton is the reason Robinson Cano won't be getting $305M.
17	I think Cano stays a Yankee, unless the Dodgers really, really want him.
18	Domonic Brown was a pleasant surprise. Let's hope he's found a comfort zone in Philly.
19	I won't be completely comfortable with Giancarlo Stanton until he is out of Miami.
20	Joey Votto has become a better reality baseball player than fantasy.
21	Do not draft Brandon Phillips. He is not a top 10 2B next year.
22	It'll be interesting to see where Tim Lincecum lands.
23	Brandon Moss. Platoon star (.904) OPS against RHP.
24	Where will David Price go in the off-season? Hopefully not Texas.
25	Happy to see Eric Hosmer come into his own. I thought we'd see this next year, but he's back on track.
26	Matt Kemp should be just fine in 2014. Not as many steals, but he should come around from his shoulder issues.
27	Intrigued by Brett Lawrie at 2B, not at 3B.
28	I'd really like to see what Pablo Sandoval can do when he's in shape.
29	Stephen Strasburg will be over-drafted yet again.
30	I still believe in Anthony Rizzo.
31	Salvador Perez and Wilson Ramos. Draft them.
32	I'm not sure how long David Ortiz can keep this going, but I can't bet against him anymore.
33	The non-OF player with the 3rd highest SB total? Everth Cabrera, who was suspended for 50 games.
34	Bryce Harper's career numbers thus far: 42 HR, 117 RBI, 29 SB, .272 AVG. Seems like a good baseline for his 2014 production.
35	Justin Verlander fixed whatever is wrong with him. He's a Top 5 pitcher next year. Better than Scherzer.
36	Still don't see Homer Bailey as an "ace" or SP2. He's just too inconsistent and gives up too many HR balls.
37	Austin Jackson fell short of my expectations and was injured yet again. Might be time to reassess him overall.
38	Not sure what to make of Jean Segura's stats declining each month of the season. Can't be a good thing.
39	I'm out on Ben Zobrist. Versatility thy name has been replaced by Matt Carpenter.
40	Justin Upton is running out of time to be great.
41	Billy Butler is who we though he was. Not that good.
42	Mike Napoli is the 2nd ranked catcher. He's the 16th ranked 1B. He won't have C-eligibility next year.
43	Minus a severe ankle injury, Jose Reyes had a great first year in Toronto.
44	Michael Bourn. Black listed.
45	Joe Mauer IGWH (Is Good When Healthy).
46	Chase Headley showed some signs of life. He's not as good as 2012, not as bad as 2013.
47	Depending on the ranks, I'd be thrilled to have Cole Hamels as my SP3 next year.
48	How'd Coors treat Nolan Arenado? I'm not buying him.
49	Avisail Garcia. Keep your eye on him.
50	Alex Rodriguez won't play an inning of baseball in the majors next year.
51	Zack Wheeler is still a couple of years away from becoming dominant.
52	Matt Moore will not be on any of my teams next year.
53	1B is not deep and there doesn't appear to be any top prospects coming along any time soon outside of a certain Cuban.
54	If Elvis Andrus can keep stealing 40+ bases then he deserves to be in the Top 60 players.
55	Pitchers will adjust to Billy Hamilton. That doesn't mean he still can't lead the league in steals. By a lot.
56	Matt Carpenter will be underdrafted next year.
57	I'm out on Lance Lynn. Never again.
58	What Jason Heyward does in the post-season will greatly affect how I rank him in 2014.
59	Drafting a catcher early in a standard league continues to be a useless endeavour. Mike Piazza isn't walking through that door.
60	Will Venable is hitting LHP better than ever, but tends to get streaky in August. If he gets regular starts, 20/20 is one again doable.
61	Patrick Corbin overrated. James Shields underrated.
62	Not sold on Wil Myers yet.
63	It will be tough for me to put Hanley Ramirez in my Top 10 next year, but I really want to.
64	Will Middlebrooks has earned the 3B spot in the Sox line-up next year.
65	That means Xander Bogaerts should be next to him at SS. Xander didn't produce as well as hoped, but inconsistent playing time will do that.
66	I see Bogaerts as a lesser version of Manny Machado. Not creative, I know.
67	Some other pitcher on the Marlins is getting all the attention, but don’t sleep on Nathan Eovaldi.
68	I still believe in Jeff Samardzija.
69	Ike Davis. Black listed.
70	More big production rookies are coming in early 2014.
71	Depending on what the Yankees do in the off-season, this might be the start of many missed playoffs to come.
72	Ian Desmond now has two straight 20/20 years.
73	Oswaldo Arcia. Draft him.
74	Kyle Seager completely collapsed in the last month of the season. Don't let this dissuade you from taking him.
75	Chris Johnson probably won't get drafted next year, and rightfully so.
76	Looked like Prince Fielder was due for a down year, but he straightened himself out. Would still rather have Chris Davis than him in 2014.
77	Christian Yelich will get you double digit homers and steals. If only he played 1B.
78	Matt Wieters. Offensive catchers develop late.
79	Matt Harvey will pitch in the Arizona Fall League, but due to ineffectiveness opt for Tommy John surgery.
80	No thank you to B.J. Upton. Ever.
81	Alejandro de Aza is always underrated.
82	I still believe in Michael Saunders.
83	Jimmy Rollins is not a Top 12 SS next year.
84	Remember Nate McLouth's first half in 2013? Ride em while they're hot.
85	David Robertson could struggle as the new Yankees' closer. Not Jim Johnson struggle, but struggle.
86	Ubaldo Jimenez back? He has seemed to figure something out.
87	Jurickson Profar need playing time, but I'm not sure how he gets it on the Rangers in 2014.
88	Andrew Cashner ended the year healthy and productive.
89	Josh Donaldson is not a fraud. He's a Top 10 3B.
90	I still believe in Starlin Castro.
91	Daniel Murphy underrated.
92	There is just something I enjoy about Michael Brantley.
93	I'm shocked Freddie Freeman is this good. Last year people were saying he's better than Heyward. Turns out he might just be.
94	I'm not drafting Jonathan Papelbon.
95	Put the entire Houston Astros roster on my do not draft list in standard leagues.
96	Greg Holland has turned into the AL Craig Kimbrel.
97	The St. Louis Cardinals will be doing themselves a disservice if Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras aren't in the starting line-up on Opening Day.
98	Pitching is just so deep, and with the high rate of injuries, I'm just waiting and waiting next year.
99	Trevor Rosenthal will be valuable in whatever role he fills in 2014.
100	Most of these will probably be wrong, but I'm already missing 2013 and looking forward to 2014.

Fanduel.com Week 4 Running Back Pick-ups

Please to enjoy: Some running back picks courtesy of Fanduel.com.

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The bye weeks begin in Week 4 this season, so many fantasy football owners are already looking to shake things up a bit. Whether you need a spot starter or you want to go a different direction with a guy who is struggling, here are three guys to target for Week 4.

Bilal Powell

The secret is starting to get out about Powell, as he exploded for 149 yards on the ground against the Buffalo Bills. Still, he is available in about 65% of leagues right now, and he is worth the gamble. Chris Ivory is having health issues, which means that Powell will be forced to carry a bigger load. Even if he is not as good as he was against the Bills each week, he will still provide plenty of value.

Jacquizz Rodgers

Rodgers is another guy that still is hanging out on the waiver wire in far too many fantasy football leagues. He is the lead running back for the foreseeable future in Atlanta, as Steven Jackson is pretty banged up. Jason Snelling is a solid player who is an even bigger sleeper owned by virtually no one right now, but Rodgers is the option to take if available.

Danny Woodhead

Hidden in San Diego, Woodhead is quietly starting to make a name for himself in fantasy football circles. Ryan Mathews gets the majority of the touches, but Woodhead does enough with his workload that he is worth a risk. He is also targeted by Philip Rivers a decent amount of times as well, so he could pick up some fantasy football value there. Chances are he is available in your league, and against the Cowboys, he should have some openings.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 4

Jordan Cameron hauled in 3 TD's in Week 3. (msn.foxsports.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

It's a funny thing when work gets in the way of your free time. I'm a day late, but not a dollar short on this week's pick-ups due to some pressing matters in reality. So far it's been a crazy season, but I feel like we say that every year. Trent Richardson was traded, Colin Kaepernick is being heavily questioned, and Jordan Cameron launched what I can only imagine is a personal attack on my TE rankings. The Giants lost the most standard of "New York Football Giants" games as they failed to win on the road, while 0-2. Now they're 0-3 and can add themselves to the laughing stock that has become the NFC East.

There's a lot of chaos going on, and not quite enough time to filter all my thoughts. Week 4 also starts the bye weeks, so I will try to pick out one player from each position, so with that as a preface, let's open the Book of Manning and see what's what.

Ryan Tannehill has led the Dolphins to a 3-0 record. (utsandiego.com)

Ryan Tannehill, QB - MIA @ NO (18% owned)

As I tuned into the Dolphins Falcons game near the end of regulation, I couldn't help but notice how much better Tannehill looked this year. He was poised and confident in the pocket and led the Dolphins to a victory against the Falcons. He didn't put up the gaudy and unexpected numbers of Brian Hoyer, but Tannehill looks ready to take a nice leap up this year.

Brandon Bolden, RB - NE +Atlanta Falcons (14%)

Unlike Jason Snelling and Jaquizz Rodgers who will turn back into pumpkins as soon as Steven Jackson is healthy, Bolden finds himself in the enviable position of taking carries away from Stevan Ridley. Last week saw each RB, including LeGarrette Blount rattle off an even amount of touches. The game was out of hand, but we've seen how the Patriots like to utilize their 3rd down backs, which Bolden now is. I can see him getting more and more in the mix as Ridley continues to struggle.

Stephen Hill, WR - NYJ @ TEN (15%)

Well, well, well, it's a Jet. A couple of weeks after I mentioned Bilal Powell with some indifference, it turns out this Jets team has an excellent defense, and an offense that can put some points on the board. Having Geno Smith at quarterback instead of Mark Sanchez goes to show you what a little confidence can bring to that position. Both Hill and Santonio Holmes had a big week last week, but against a lousy Bills secondary. The Titans have a good defense, so depending on how they choose to cover Hill and Holmes, this add could be a coin flip. I'm assuming they'd lean more heavily on Holmes here, so I like Hill as a play.

Colby Fleener, TE - IND +Jacksonville Jaguars (31%)

The red sea has parted for Fleener. Previously with players like T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen battling Fleener for catches, Allen has been placed on IR, and under new Director of Offense, Pep Hamilton has flipped the script from last year. Gone is Bruce Arians' big play, pass happy offense, and in it's place is Hamilton's run first and more conservative pass game. This all favors Fleener as Hilton's value takes a big dive do to less deep passes (along with some of those going towards Darius Heyward-Bey). Fleener and Hamilton, oh and that guy Luck have had a lot of reps together, so I see Fleener getting a lot more opportunities.

Previously mentioned:

There are also a couple of players whose stocks have risen even higher since I first mentioned them in FAABulous. It's not worth rehasing them, but worth mentioning them.

Bilal Powell,  Ryan Broyles, and Brian Hartline

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Jonathan Franklin, RB - GB BYE (19%)

The Pack are on a bye, and after James Starks was injured early on Sunday, Franklin took over and had the game of his life. After a training camp and preseason that was as loathed and poorly received as a Miley Cyrus live performance, Franklin does get credit for shining when credit is due, however, he also fumbled away the football and caused the Packers to lose. I find it hard to believe that he'd build up enough good will to get significant playing time going forward or supplant Eddie Lacy when he's back and healthy.

THE 1%

Mike Glennon, QB - TB @ ARZ (1%)

I was leaning Delanie Walker here, but how often can you pick a starting QB that's 1% owned? Plus, since this is breaking news this morning, I get to take advantage of my 24 hour delay. Win win! So much for the Josh Freeman era. The only person that's more upset than Freeman is probably his agent who couldn't get that fat second contract out of Freeman. Actually, his agent is probably more pissed than Josh.

Looking for a Fight @ UFC 165: Jones v. Gustafsson

Jon Jones launches a jump kick against Ryan Bader. (mirror.co.uk)

Two and a half years ago Jon Jones fought Ryan Bader. Both were undefeated, both had a lot of hype and potential behind them, and the winner was pegged to be a pretty big deal in the UFC. Jones won convincingly, and he's certainly become a big deal.

With combination of some issues outside of the ring, dominance in it, and a luke warm relationship with fans, Jones has become the UFC star that has the potential to sign the brightest. Deals with Nike and Gatorade (?) have given him the two biggest "on shorts" sponsors in the UFC, and surely he must be in the running to be on the cover of the new EA Sports UFC game.

As we've followed the career and watched the development of Jones as a fighter in the UFC and as an entity in media, it has always been interesting to see how Jones continually tries to develop his media persona. He wants to fight and be the best fighter ever, but at the same time it's confusing how a man who - when he's not trying - comes off as very aware, intelligent, and captivating. When he is at his most distant is when he tries to be someone other than himself or live up to the image of what he thinks he should be.

He's gone from aw shucks, to cookie-cutter fighter mode, to cocky and arrogant, to comfortable in his own skin, to slightly awkward at times, and where we stand today a man at peace looking for new challenges.

Surely, though it must be difficult to restrain any hubris when your job and your success has come from beating up the toughest guys on the planet. Georges St-Pierre certainly does that and does it well. And despite many less fan pleasing performances than Jones, is the most beloved fighter the UFC has. With all due respect to GSP, the UFC does not want another version of him.

The UFC is looking for that marketable star that wants the limelight and can become the guy that everyone and their mother knows. In Jones they have that, and he wants to be that. While his in-ring product might be approaching a polished product at 205, his out of ring persona is far from complete.

What the UFC wants is Floyd "Money" Mayweather. The undisputed champ of boxing and pay-per-view, excuse me May-per-view. Money is as big as the sport itself, maybe bigger. His persona is every bit as perfect as his boxing ability. While Mayweather is a devisive figure, what he does is get a whole lot of people's attention. People want to see him fight whether he wins or loses. People are drawn to him because the idea we all have of Floyd Mayweather is compelling, but honest. You may not like or agree with how he carries himself or lives his life, but what you see is what you get. With Jones, you don't get that feeling. You get the feeling that a part of him would rather be Ronda Rousey.

Jones is beginning to discuss other interests. Whether it's getting into movies or boxing a Klitschko brother Jones is looking for challenge that, frankly, the UFC's light heavyweight divison can no longer offer him. Who knew being the best of the best at something at 26 would be so unfulfilling?

For Jones, the compelling part for him, the challenge is to become an icon and stir an emotion inside of fight fans that compel them to be invested in what he does. To want to watch him. That's a challenge, and that's also a big part of what will bring him the attention, earnings, and fanfare he desires.

Rousey go there faster because she has a crazy story, is an Olympian, is fiery, and is beautiful. People want to know what she's doing.

People are just as inclined to shrug their shoulders when Jones is on SportsCenter.

Jones may be at peace or confident he'll beat Alexander Gustafsson this weekend at UFC 165 in Toronto, and that's fine. But he shouldn't make the fans watching him be indifferent. Talking about how Gustafsson doesn't do anything better than him, or that Gustafsson is mistaken to have a "stick and move" boxing strategy and wax poetic about the art of boxing itself isn't what people want from Jones. He has to make more of an effort, not to be likable, but to just be a person of interest. The answer about what works for Jones is an unknown. Who should he try to emulate? Ah, but that's it, he shouldn't try to emulate anyone at all. It's a matter of how to make yourself as compelling a figure as possible using the tools that God gave you.

As crazy and as mixed up as it sounds, the audience that will be entralled with Jones' pure excellence in the Octagon is much smaller than the audience that is intrigued about a figure or a person (i.e. Kardashian, Kim). There's a part to Jones that seems to think this is all figured out and wins and movies and money and cars and fame and legendary status are all but promised through hard work and dedication, but the truly legendary figures always have a bit more going on than that.

BREAKDOWN

Nitpicking over a champions past fights is never worth it. Fighters fight who is out there at the time. That moments best of the best or best available. Just because Anderson Silva fought Patrick Cote doesn't make him any less of fighter. When you deal with these upper echelon fighters, a lot of opponents they go up against won't seem up to snuff. The names of Rua, Rampage, Machida, Evans, Belfort, and Sonnen are all marquee wins. None outside of Sonnen were complete gimmies, and we all know what Sonnen is capable of. If this was the BCS (RIP!) then Jones would have built up quite the compelling case. Certainly, Jones' severe height and reach advantage has been played up ad nauseum, but it could also be argued that Bones hasn't taken on a fighter at or near his prime since Bader

You can cross both of those items off the list this Saturday when Jones fights Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165. A fighter that is by all means approaching his prime. Again if you want to nitpick, you can say Gustafsson isn't ready yet. Sure, but people didn't think Jones was either when he fought Shogun to win the title on a quick turnaround.

Gustafsson has improved each fight, especially after a submission loss to Phil Davis that exposed his lack of wrestling. Gustafsson actually began training with Davis after that fight to improve. This is an evolving fighter who has showcased a wide variety of skills and a great ability to use his length and body control to give opponents a tough time.

That reach is actually no advantage against Jones who sports the longest reach in all the UFC. Both men will be heading into the fight with, likely, very different strategies. While Gustafsson has worked on improving his wrestling, his game is his boxing and his distance. People are wondering how Jones will handle someone of similar size in the Octagon with him, but I'll be interested to see how Gustafsson does the same.

Bones, will likely want to box and strike with Gustafsson. He doesn't appear to have any doubts when it comes to how good his striking is, and he really shouldn't. Hardly anyone has taken less damage in their fights than Jones. The most severe injury he had was from his own doing against Chael Sonnen when he severely dislocated his big toe pushing Sonnen up against the cage.

We have seen Gustafsson's chin in action, but not Jones'. Undoubtedly, at some point Jones will take this to the mat, where it'll be up to Gustafsson to get back on his feet. These are two major advantages that Jones has.

After the Siva-Weidman fight, there are some extra nerves in the air about champs taking things a little too lightly. While Silva more likely served as a cautionary tale for Bones, it's hard not to wonder if maybe he is a bit more focused on a movie role than a big Swede. I feel it myself, but in all of Bones' fights no matter how big or small he's never been out of control. Never been reckless or in danger. Now, he can't avoid danger at his own behest, but the being in control part is vital.

It's reaching that point where Jones wants the standing KO finish in the UFC. I doubt that'll happen in this fight. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight actually started off rather dull. Jones won't force any engagement and if Gustafsson is too concerned with keeping his distance we might hear some boos early on. Ultimately though, things will start moving, and depending on when Jones moves this fight to the ground, that's probably where it will end.

Jones by 3rd round submission.