Looking for a Fight: UFC 156

Jose Aldo is on the brink of becoming a superstar. (espn.com)

UFC 156 from Las Vegas will showcase a stacked card, as per the tradition for the UFC pre-Super Bowl. The headliner is the featherweight title fight between reigning kingpin Jose Aldo and former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar.

A former long-reigning champ who is dropping down in weight to challenge the elite champion of another division. How is this not a superfight again?

Well the fact that superfight crux Anderson Silva isn't involved is one answer, however, that shouldn't diminish seeing two of the top pound for pound fighters on the planet go at it.

Both fighters have had their momentum slowed as this fight approaches, so in that instance the hype is hard to amp up. Aldo has been out of commission for a year due to a minor motorcycle accident that morphed into staph infection. In that time, a fight with Erick Koch fell to the wayside, and this fight with Edgar was delayed a couple of months.

The last time Aldo was in the Octagon, however, he KO'd Chad Mendes with a quick knee coming out of a clinch on the cage. He ran into his Brazilian crowd (Aldo has a pension for running into the crowd) and left one of the great images of 2012.

While "lack of momentum" means different things to different people (Aldo is still ranked #4 on most pound for pound lists) Aldo hasn't been able to fully put together his UFC highlight reel like he did in WEC. Starting with this fight on Saturday, Aldo could be poised for a great 2013. A thunderous win over Edgar won't put him above Silva, Jon Jones, or Georges St-Pierre, but he will certainly kick in the door of that elite tier of fighters.

After a half-dozen of hotly contested fights Edgar finally decided to drop to 145 after a controversial loss to still lightweight champ Benson Henderson. So coming off a loss also won't leave the fans drooling at the mouth like Silva v. Jones/GSP, but for Edgar this is the best move for his career and one many people believe he should have made as soon as the flyweight division was created in the UFC.

The stories of Edgar's size have long been discussed, but this will be his first chance to show if his speed is still speedy among other quick movers and if his boxing and power which were serviceable at 155 become huge plus marks in the Edgar column.

It's easy to say - oh, of course they'll translate, but with Edgar being able be a champion; defending his title multiple times, I think this move will prove a great service to what Edgar can do. He'll no longer always be the smallest guy in the fight (although he will be against Aldo) and in as much, he should be able to better utilize his wrestling and cardio.

Fighting at lightweight, Edgar couldn't mix it up with his opponents like he can at 145. Edgar's game was predicated on his excellent boxing, movement, and his grit/determination/heart. He couldn't engage fighters because he'd always be out muscled. His game was much more at a distance and keeping range from larger fighters getting in on him, cutting down his movement in the ring, and clobbering him in the face.

After the Aldo fight, I will be interested to see how Edgar changes as a fighter. Fighters with power are less common at 145 and Edgar will be able to use his strength to his advantage and diversify his game even more. He won't have to be concerned with the many, many obstacles that got in his way at 155 and ultimately cost him a win and caused him a lot more physical damage.

So the Frankie we get at UFC 156 will be the same as he ever was - just a little lighter - and when has that guy ever not put on a great fight?

BREAKDOWN

A lazy analysis of this fight goes something like, Edgar pushing Aldo into deep water, cardio, cardio, who wants it more, Fighter X by decision.

It makes sense and isn't wholly improbable that this will happen, however, as an unbiased Aldo fan I have a different take on what will happen.

The odds on this fight are about even among the people that cover MMA, but I'm not sure this fight will be that close.

Edgar's goal, no doubt, is to get this fight into the latter rounds, but that's much easier said than done. As I mentioned before, the Edgar we see on Saturday will be the same guy we've seen at 155. A boxer that keeps his distance and has great cardio. But what else have we seen of Edgar? A guy that gets tagged. That gets beat up. Guys like Grey Maynard and Benson Henderson don't have the power and speed that Aldo brings to the table.

Edgar won't be able to utilize his wrestling as Aldo has been impossible to take down, and it would be best for Edgar to keep his distance, which Aldo closes off in the blink of an eye.

For Aldo, I was a little worried he was catching the championship itis. This occurs when a fighter known for an aggressive style becomes much more passive and cautious. Instead of going out there to win a fight, fighter's that get the itis become more concerned with what would happen if they lost the fight than trying to win the fight. The most recent example of a fighter with the itis was Junior Dos Santos.

Aldo's win over Mendes was a flash KO, so it's difficult to tell if lack of killer instinct he had against Kenny Florian and Mark Hominick were the result of strategy or fear.

Speaking of Hominick, he's the reason Edgar should be both confident and weary about trying to get Aldo into the latter rounds. Aldo hasn't been quite as explosive as he was in his WEC days, and he's clearly put on more muscle (and possible skimped a bit on the cardio) since he entered the UFC. The muscle could be for a jump to Edgar's old division - which Aldo desperately wants to do (while still fighting at 145 of course). The possible lack of cardio is also a side effect of the itis. It's hard to tell which is the reason Aldo slows much easier, but even after Hominick battered a gassed Aldo in the 5th round, Hominick still lost.

I can see this fight starting off with a bang. Aldo will be aggressive and Edgar's movement and counter striking will have the first round go back and forth. What I see as a likelihood is that if Aldo is able to chop down Edgar's legs and limit his movement, he can go in for the kill. And unlike the past where Edgar was able to power through it vis a vis heart/will/courage he won't get that chance against Aldo.

Aldo by 3rd Round TKO.

Also, if that's not enough excitement for you to watch the PPV...this dude is fighting too...

Looking for a Fight: UFC 154 Part I

It's no coincidence that GSP's return is also the return of the big main event. (ufc.com)

It's been 19 months since Georges St-Pierre stepped into the Octagon. A small span of time in the grand scheme of the UFC, but leading up to UFC 154 Saturday night at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada, it's a wonder that the UFC survived without him.

As per usual, the UFC landscape has changed over the past year and a half, but it's clear that the impact of it's biggest star (sorry, Jon Jones, fans hate you a bit too much to wrestle that title from GSP) and biggest draw can still sculpt valleys and mountains like a great glacier, cutting to the heart of what makes the UFC so great and what fans pine for during every pay per view. The best of the best putting on a show. Fighters that masterfully blend all aspects of martial arts into a dominant and awe inspiring performance.

In what has been mostly an injury riddled and disappointing year for the UFC, GSP is shining a very bright light as 2012 comes to a close. So far he's been able to provide an intriguing comeback story (complete with "I've go my fire back" quotes!), set up a great fight between himself and interim champion Carlos Condit that can and is single-handily carrying a pay per view that will easily surpass 600K buys, starred in one of the most entertaining UFC Primetimes in a long time, led to rumors of an Anderson Silva v. GSP mega-fight at Cowboys Stadium and everything that goes along with that (mainly will Anderson enter the ring should GSP win on Saturday to what beach will Anderson be sipping mai thais on during his "vacation"...even though we all know his posturing is just free publicity for his movie with Steven Seagal).

So for Part I of this two part Looking for a Fight, let's focus on GSP, because basically there isn't a person in the fight world right now that can't do anything but that. Sorry, Carlos, I'll get to you soon.

The surprising story line that emerged from GSP's rehab process isn't that his rehab was tough, that he faced some self-doubt; as these are all things that I'm sure most top level athletes will go through, but rather that GSP frankly has stated that in his last couple of title defenses he was a much more dour GSP. He became engulfed by the business side of fighting, viewing each match-up as a chore rather than a chance to compete. This makes everything about being a fighter more arduous. Training, strict dieting, sparring, the aches, the pains, and knowing that every morning you wake up, you'll be going to sleep maybe a little better but a lot more frustrated.

I found an interesting take on this part of the process (training and the day to day grind as opposed to the actual fight itself) in Grantland's piece yesterday about Rembert Browne's trip to NFL HQ to visit the set of NFL Red Zone. The always seeming caffeinated host of Red Zone Scott Hanson (he doesn't drink coffee!) mentioned this:

Deion and Sapp and all those guys will tell you, when they played, you didn't need to pay them for Sunday. You pay them to come to practice every day and do film work and all that other stuff that was kind of drudgery. Game day they would do for free. This is the fun stuff.

That's it right there.

When athletes or a person with a seemingly glamorous position say they'd do this for free, they probably would. The this being playing on Sunday, acting in a movie, or whatever. The payment part comes from the droll of training and mentally preparing and sitting in a trailer memorizing lines. That mundane stuff is where payment is owed. Getting to go out there and perform your craft, to put it on display, that's the payoff for all that work.

GSP had lost even that. There was no payoff for him. It was just knock one down and move onto the next one. And knowing what we know about GSP, it wouldn't be a big leap to suggest that being one of the top pound for pound fighters on the planet, being the undisputed welterweight champ, to take on each day with those kinds of expectations and pressures, sure that along with the business side of things could squelch any man's flame.

The knee injury is what freed GSP of these burdens. It broke him from his routine of train, press conference, fight, win, train, press conference, fight, win - and gave him that always powerful "perspective on things."

Due to that injury, he had to deal with the possibility that he'd never be the same guy again. That he'd lose even a portion of that athleticism that made him such an elite fighter against all types of opponents. His agility and explosiveness allowed him to implement his game plan with expert precision in order to become a truly dominant mixed martial artist.

Also, as he witnessed from afar, the UFC trucks along. An interim title was set up between Condit and Nick Diaz. Coincidentally, it was Diaz who essentially took the title shot back from Condit after Diaz trash talked his way to GSP and certainly made Georges show some fire.

Training for that fight is when he tore his ACL, and sent him down a different path with new challenges.

For the first time since he entered the Octagon in 2002, there was no clear path for him. He was either focused on winning fights, getting to the title and defending the title. Now, he was in some kind of champion limbo. Not quite fighting for the championship, but not quite fighting to win it back. He had to prove to himself that he wanted to get back in the cage. He had to prove to himself that he still has the drive and fire to be not one of the greats, but the greatest fighter at 170.

When GSP comes out of the tunnel with his customary karate gi on Saturday night, he would have proven to himself he found those things in his year and a half journey back to the UFC. Internally he knows. That fire is burning bright and his butterflies are flying in formation. Now, he'll be out to prove to everyone else that the best GSP possible is back, and he'll do it in one of the toughest fights of his career.

Tomorrow in Part II, the fight breakdown...

Grantland: Fantasy Island Competition (Loser)

A fantasy writing opportunity? Keep dreaming. (Getty images)

Bill Simmons' site, Grantland, on ESPN launched a contest to find their next fantasy football writer. Now, as a purveyor of sports/fantasy knowledge, aside from the odds being against me, I was forced to enter at the mere shot of getting into the competition.

The rules were simple enough. Pick your top 5 fantasy players and 1 sleepers, keep it to 750 words, and be original. Ok, I can do that. As a matter of fact, I can easily do that.

As I focused in on writing my 750 word essay, I started to think of the implications of what I was doing. The essay would only get me into the contest, where a varied point system would be developed among the 10-12 other contestants in order to pick a winner at the end of the football season.

Would you believe it, but some people took the cynical approach and "thanked" Grantland for offering to get free fantasy football content for a year and then offer up a "meager" contributor contract to write for Grantland for a year (and I guess potentially longer if you're the bee's knees).

I write and maintain Lockration. not because I have some delusion of becoming the next Bill Simmons or that ESPN or Yahoo or CBS will shoot me an email saying they like my stuff and want me to work for them full-time. I know that requires this site to get probably close to 100K hits a day, which this site is currently running behind by about 99,989 hits. I would write about fantasy sports, MMA, major sports, or that sport where the horses dance around with braided manes if I could earn a living off of it. This is fun for me. This is leisure. Each post is basically a first draft I write off the top of my head, do a little research for links and such, and I post it. All-in-all, I can write something up in about 40 minutes. This is my zen.

This takes me back to the implications of entering the contest and wanting to really, truly win. I was having dreams of winning, I felt it in my guts. You'll see in the entry below for my sleeper pick of Kyle Rudolph, I make some very similar comments to a Bill Barnwell (see. Copycat Contract) article posted days later! I was basically writing as a Grantlander already! Now, of course, I'm no where as prolific, good, or anything positive compared to Barnwell, but to me it was a sign.

If I entered this, did my best, and didn't win, then what? Would I sully my zen? Validation is a word I always tied to a weakness. Validation is something a person needed to know they belong. How could they possibly ever know if they were good enough if someone didn't pat them on the back? I thought it was weak, lame, and unnecessary. But as I wrote the article, submitted it, and waited for the results, what I was looking for was...validation. I wanted a pat on the back welcoming me to a new life and career path with unlimited potential and making me probably one of the happiest people on the planet.

In that instance I saw when people say validation, what they meant. Most stories you hear of people needing validation are famous cases. A QB getting the starting gig, a baseball Hall of Famer tabbing a youngster as the future of the sport, a maligned NBA superstar finally getting his first/overdue championship. These are not instances of weak people but people that are seeking to find that cozy spot in life where they know and feel they've always belonged.

That's what getting into this contest would have represented to me. So, now that the  results are out and I'm posting this article, clearly that did not happen. While I was bummed for about 10 minutes, I was happy to realize that this did not mess with my head. I didn't say screw this writing stuff. I was happy to continue on this path that I'm making and come of it what may.

Plus when I saw some of the entries that were posted online for this contest, they were horrible! I mean HORRIBLE! So I know that my entry wasn't the worst, but it wasn't the best either.

The gist of what I've gathered regarding the winners submissions they were a little more over the top than my entry. My thought process was, they're asking for the Top 5 Fantasy players and a sleeper not to judge your football acumen (as many Top 5's are the same thing) but rather narrow the scope to judge the best writing. So maybe I should have authored another essay but only made it Game of Throes themed or something more outlandish to really...show...my chops.

But it's also possible the other articles were just vastly superior to mine. It's happened before, it'll happen again. Nonetheless here are my Top 5 Fantasy picks for Football (note: some of the links may not work since I copied and pasted it).

Arian Foster, RB

Last year dramatically shifted the way fantasy football is played. Four of the top six all-time single season passing yardage records were set in 2011, tight ends put up wide receiver numbers, and numerous cable packages geared towards fantasy football revealed to an untold number of significant others how pathetic the person they thought they loved really was.

With all that changed in fantasy, some things stay the same. You take the best running back available with the #1 pick. Foster, the pontificating point-smith of fantasy, has said he doesn’t care for the hobby, but he certainly plays like he does by averaging 140.25 total YPG and 1.03 TD/G. Also, for those nervous about injuries, or Ben Tate, or Ben Tate injuring Foster Showgirls style – don’t play scared.

Aaron Rodgers, QB

Rodgers is fantasy’s cool ocean breeze at the par 4 No. 8 at Pebble Beach, as innovative as a James Murphy track, and as comforting as a guaranteed 20 points a week (which Rodgers did in every week last year but one). He threw all of 6 INTs last year while scrambling for an additional 3 TDs. Also, he’s the only player that has been in the top three in fantasy points the last four years.

His football environment breeds success. He may not get much better, but at his numbers that’s perfectly alright.

Ray Rice, RB

Rice may be the best running back in football, but that doesn’t mean he’s the best fantasy running back. Aside from being healthy (playing the full 16 the past 3 years) and coming off a career year (eclipsing his personal record for total TDs in a season by 7), the concern with Rice has always been his supporting cast. The thing that makes him as valuable as he is – is his greatest weakness: he’s all the Ravens have on offense. Every week the opposing team’s defense focuses on stopping Rice. Now you can file that under ‘E’ for Easier Said Than Done, but accounting for 48% of a team’s offensive touches week by week can lead to inconsistency.

LeSean McCoy, RB

You know you’ve arrived when you’re known by your nickname. Happened with my buddy, Patch (he had a birthmark over his left-eye…kind of like the Target dog). For Shady, scoring 20 total TDs helped him dash and cut his way to the elite RB table and grab the big piece of chicken.

Shady’s fantasy potential is contingent on the exact opposite issue Rice has. “There aren’t enough TDs to go around!”[1] He’s grabbed 40, 78, 48 passes the past 3 years in Philly’s hybrid West Coast offense and led all backs in FootballOutsiders.com’s effective yards. The Eagles have many weapons, but even if Shady loses a couple goal line scampers, he’s still elite…although you might want to discuss that with this blasphemer.

Calvin Johnson, WR

There isn’t a more fun player to watch play football than Johnson. He passes the eye test, science test, and nerd test. He needs to be included in any-and-all, “What if this guy played this other sport” and “who needs their own YouTube channel” conversations.

There are some Optimus Primes sullying the Megatron love-fest. The pesky regression police have increased their jurisdiction from fantasy baseball to fantasy football.  No receiver has caught the number of TDs (16) Megatron did last year and matched/increased that number the following season. But he did score 73 more fantasy points than the next best WR, and that receiver has him or him hurling hog-hind and reading defenses. In a shallow pool, take the elite level wideout.

Kyle Rudolph, TE

Football is a copycat sport. Someone finds a Madden-type-glitch in the game and people follow suit.  Looking at the breakout stars of 2011; all signs pointed to tight end and Kyle Rudolph. He may just be Gronk-incarnate.

The 6’6 2^nd-year pro started only 1 game (played 8), but he managed to haul in 3 TDs. Along with a nose for the end zone, it’s also important to show that Rudolph can utilize his size to catch the ball and stretch the field. Looking at advanced stats, he was able to do this with an above-average catch rate of 66.7% and 20% of pass attempts his way being beyond 15 yards from the line of scrimmage.  While he has been injured during the preseason, the Vikings have the offense to make Rudolph a fantasy factor and continue the TE trend.

---

[1] Quote: Scared Fantasy Owner