Showing posts with label A.J. Green. Show all posts
Showing posts with label A.J. Green. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 15

Rob Gronkowski left the field, not to return for the rest of the year. (GETTY)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.PLAYOFF EDITION: We're not focusing on lower % owned players, but those with choice match-ups for the playoffs. 


Well, if your league didn't start the playoffs last week, they certainly are this week. What a way to kick things off. Week 14 was the highest scoring week in NFL history with 104 touchdowns total. Yes, if you didn't put up a lot of fantasy points this weekend, then I don't know what to tell you. 

As if the high scoring wasn't enough, there was a storm that passed through the East coast leading to some snow bowls. None quite as ridiculous as the Eagles and Lions game, which I attended. The snow fall was so severe in the first half that I left my plastic beer cup in the cup holder and within 15 minutes it was filled with snow. You couldn't really see what was going on 35 yards down field, and replays on the big screens looked like your cable went out. Note: LeSean McCoy was not affected.



So we have scoring, we have snow, we have fun gifs - what else? Well, there was a coach fired, another coach seeming wanting to be fired, a failed miracle play in Pittsburgh due to another sideline controversy, oh and Alshon Jeffery.

There's fun football weeks, there's great football weeks, and then there's Week 14. Well, for a small percentage of fantasy players Week 14 wasn't all snowballs and points. Yes, two major injuries went down. Rob Gronkowski, fresh of his multiple arm breaks, was hit low in a gruesome hit by Browns' safety T.J. Ward (at least it wasn't Bernard Pollard) nullifying him for the rest of the regular season and playoffs. The other injury wasn't as severe, but just as brutal for fantasy owners as Adrian Peterson picked up a foot injury. The most recent reports don't show Peterson's foot injury as serious - as in surgery serious - but will likely cause him to miss Week 15 and potentially sit out for the rest of the year as a precautionary measure because if you're the Vikings, really, what's the point of throwing him back out there?

Ideally, if you're a contending team you have solid back-ups, but it's a big blow regardless. The best part of the playoffs though is that you don't need Toby Gerhart to carry your hopes and dreams for 6 weeks, just a couple, and match-ups play a big part in possibly getting through these kinds of injuries.

God speed to you fellow fantasy players, and let's look at some Love/Hate (h/t +Matthew Berry , Flames/Lames (h/t Brad Evans).

Cam Newton is here to rescue you. (winsnlosses.com)


QB - Nick Foles, PHI @ +Minnesota Vikings, Cam Newton, CAR v NYJ

Yes, you can't keep Nick Foles down. You just can't! He's walking into another favorable match-up against the Vikings. I doubt the crowd in Minny will cause much of a fuss, and Foles should have time to pile up the stats. The one stat I heard that caused me some pause was that Foles - unexpectedly - is among the league leaders in seconds it takes to get rid of the football. You'd assume that in Chip Kelly's offense he'd be winging it around, and although this past weekend was a bad indicator of this as visibility was terrible in the first half, I did start to notice it watching some of his past highlights. This is certainly a kudos to the Eagles' offensive line, but should they have an off day, the Vikings do have the D-line to cause some issues.

It's hard not to have a love/hate relationship with Cam Newton. He can pile up the points with the best of them, but sometimes he just goes into stink mode and doesn't do anything. He is running at a higher clip recently averaging 9.45 yards per carry and had at least 2 touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 weeks. He gets the Jets at home, and he will be looking to bounce back from a poor performance in New Orleans.

If you're desperate: Jason Campbell, CLE v CHI, Ryan Tannehill, MIA v +New England Patriots 

These are both great match-up plays for two relatively low % owned quarterbacks. If Campbell can make it through the game, he can just launch balls to Josh Gordon all day and it just appears that Josh Gordon will undoubtedly catch them. Also as a note, last week's pick-up at TE Jordan Cameron came back to life with Campbell tossing him the football. A good sign all around.

The Dolphins and Bengals are both teams I quit on. The Dolphins around the whole bullying incident and the Bengals when they lost Geno Atkins and Leon Hall. Well, they've proven me wrong and cost me gambling dollars in the process. For all the conversation that goes around having young quarterbacks in the right situation, it certainly appears that Tannehill has been in anything but that. However, he's improved over the course of the year, and has a high floor. He's recorded double digit fantasy points in every game this year (his lowest output being 12.88 at New England in Week 8) and he's put up 19, 22 and 24 fantasy points the last 3 weeks at Carolina and on the road against the Jets and Steelers respectively. Pretty impressive, young Tannehill.

RB - Marshawn Lynch, SEA @ +New York Giants, Shane Vereen, NE @ +Miami Dolphins 

Yes, I love Shady McCoy and Jamaal Charles, but here are two lower projected backs that I think will have a big day. The Giants have only pride to play for, and the Seahawks will be travelling a long way for another road game after a tough loss to San Francisco. I would expect Lynch to see the ball a lot to set up Seattle's play action and to grind the game down after the Seahawks go up big. Take note of the stadium in New Jersey, Seahawks, you might very well be back there in a couple of months.

Vereen graduates from "If you're desperate" to start him this week. He established himself in a big way last week with 153 receiving yards, and with Gronk out there will be an even greater focus on Vereen and Julian Edelman.

If you're desperate: Alfred Morris, WAS @ +Atlanta Falcons, Ryan Mathews, SD @ +Denver Broncos 

Well, this Washington team is a mess. We're not sure who is starting for the Shanahan led squad, but if it's Robert Griffin III or Kurt Cousins it really won't matter for Morris. The run option plays that led to Morris' breakout campaign last year have been thrown out of the playbook due to their ineffectiveness, not wanting RGIII to run and get hurt, or both. When Washington trails, they don't run the ball, but this week, they won't have any other options. Now only if Shanahan would give Morris the red zone touches as well, we'd be on to something!

For all the ills that Mathews has caused in his career. Fantasy owners can't be disappointed in what he's given to them this year as a much lower round draft pick. The injuries are still lingering, but he's gotten steady carries and steady production. I do like him more than Toby Gerhart simply because the Eagles defense - who Gerhart will face - has been playing much better lately, especially at keeping teams out of the end zone. He's a good desperation play if your bench running backs consist of BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Lamar Miller, but Mathews has more upside.

WR - Calvin Johnson, DET v +Baltimore Ravens, Alshon Jeffery, CHI @ CLE, Andre Johnson - HOU @ +Indianapolis Colts, A.J. Green, CIN @ +Pittsburgh Steelers 

Lots of big time receivers lining up for big time games. You would think A.J. Green is a no brainier, and he really is, but while his season has been good, it's been spectacularly quiet. The numbers are there, but he's not in that top tier of receivers I thought he'd be coming into the season. Facing Joe Haden multiple times a season won't help, but you wonder if Andy Dalton is taking his toll on Green.

I'll never question Jeffery ever.


If you're desperate: Torrey Smith, BAL v +Detroit Lions , Anquan Boldin, SF @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN v +Philadelphia Eagles, Julian Edelman, NE @ +Miami Dolphins 

Two of these three are total home run plays. Smith and Patterson have the potential to go off. Smith is actually a very nice play against the Lions, and Patterson is starting to figure things out as of late. Boldin will likely be the guy not covered by Darelle Revis, which is always nice. Sorry, Michael Crabtree.

TE - Jordan Cameron, CLE v CHI, Charles Clay, MIA v +New England Patriots 

Cameron is back baby! And don't let the Cowboys' terrible performance Monday night fool you, the Bears' defense isn't very good.

If you haven't enjoyed a week out of Charles Clay then shame on you. The FAABulous favorite has 6 TD's on the year and is approaching 700 yards receiving. He's outperformed Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates.

If you're desperate: Delanie Walker, TEN @ +Denver Broncos, Zach Miller, SEA - v +New York Giants 

The tricky thing with Walker is he's a Thursday night play which, if it goes poorly, puts you in a hole. But he would be my #1 widely available addition to replace Gronk. Miller is a more risky play, but his match up in NJ is a favorable one. He has shown the ability to make a big play here or there, and he slightly beat out Brent Celek, who is even more TD dependent than Miller.

Plus, now we need more options at TE than ever since we can all accept that Ladarius Green is just a figment of fantasy experts' imagination and move on with our lives.

K - Stephen Gostkowski, NE @ +Miami Dolphins, Mason Crosby, GB @ +Dallas Cowboys 

People want to keep ranking Crosby so low, and I don't understand it. If the Aaron Rodgers injury benefited anyone fantasy wise it's Crosby, and he hasn't disappointed all year.

DEF - Carolina v +New York Jets, San Francisco @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Yes, you're playing Seattle against the Giants, and Kansas City is capable of still giving bad teams trouble, but Carolina going up against the Geno Smith or Matt Simms combo platter? Yippy skippy.

Friday, August 23, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football 2013 Pre-Season Ranks - WR

A.J. Green is part of the next tri-cycle of Fantasy WR set to take over the league. (GETTY)
The wide receiver position in fantasy is one that encapsulates stability, randomness, and unpredictability. Year to year there will be players you know are going to be good, players that will fluctuate between that 5-15 range in any random order, and wide outs that just burst onto the scene just because. If I had the time and resources, here is where I'd show you a cluster graph of players over the past 3 years who were drafted in the top 10 of their position and illustrate my brilliant point about the ebb and flow of the fantasy wide receiver position. That would have been something.

Since I don't have those resources - here is something much more inelegant - the average draft position for the past 3 years. If you'll notice over the course of these years there are the kings of the hill (The Johnsons), the steady churners (Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald) and the out of nowheres (DeSean Jackson, Victor Cruz).


2010
# PLAYER
1 Johnson, Andre HOU WR
2 Moss, Randy TEN WR
3 Wayne, Reggie IND WR
4 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
5 Johnson, Calvin DET WR
6 Austin, Miles DAL WR
7 White, Roddy ATL WR
8 Marshall, Brandon MIA WR
9 Jennings, Greg GBP WR
10 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR
2011
# PLAYER
1 Johnson, Andre HOU WR
2 Johnson, Calvin DET WR
3 White, Roddy ATL WR
4 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
5 Jennings, Greg GBP WR
6 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR
7 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR
8 Wallace, Mike PIT WR
9 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR
10 Austin, Miles DAL WR
2012
# PLAYER
1 Johnson, Calvin DET WR
2 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
3 Jones, Julio ATL WR
4 Johnson, Andre HOU WR
5 Welker, Wes NEP WR
6 Green, A.J. CIN WR
7 White, Roddy ATL WR
8 Jennings, Greg GBP WR
9 Cruz, Victor NYG WR
10 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR
The cream of the crop is usually a safe bet for about 3-year cycles or tri-cylces (applause, please you shouldn't). Andre went through it before slipping, so did Reggie Wayne, and Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz of course, could be the best WR in football, but we really won't know until someone can throw him the football.

Within those tri-cycles the receivers are at the height of their powers. There are always outliers that can reign o'top the WR ranks for much longer. Calvin Johnson is one such uberlord. Some previous receivers like Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison had such clout as well. One such receiver encroaching on that level, the Matt Damon to Johnson's Affleck is A.J. Green. The extremely talented Bengals wide receiver came out in the same class as Julio Jones - and was drafted higher than him - and it appears rightfully so. Not that Jones is any kind of slouch, but he is on a more dynamic team with more options so he'll get to see the ball less. Being the focal point of the Bengals offense has allowed Green to flourish not only as a crazy athletic receiver that can go get the ball anywhere on the field, but also a great route runner that enables Andy Dalton to serve as a functioning QB.

Green excelled in year 2. He gained in all the right areas. More catches, more yards receiving, and more touchdowns. As year 3 approaches, he has the chance to be that 1B option to Calvin. The two main things holding Green back is that he's not a high volume pass catcher. He had 97 last year good for 7th place, but he'll need to get into that top 4. This relies on play calling a bit, but more so on Dalton. Dalton had the 15th most pass attempts last year, and that's not going to get it done. The offense has to run more through the QB position, and less on grinding the game to a halt via BJGE. Development for Dalton this season is key for the Bengals.

Coincidentally, the second area of improvement also lies on the pads of Dalton. The deep ball. Dalton does not have elite arm strength, and when you have a downfield force like Green, that hinders his abilities a bit. Consider Green's longest catch of his career was a 73 yard TD that was thrown to him by the Bengals' number 2 receiver. You'd like to see more attempts downfield, at least one or two a game, but that's not in Dalton's wheelhouse.

TIER INJURIES SUCK: SLEEPER EDITION
Andrew Hawkins, CIN

Hawkins jumped onto my radar last year, and I think he can be a big part to the Cincy offense, but a preseason injury has side-tracked Hawkins for the time being.

TIER SLEEPERS
Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
Leonard Hankerson, WAS
Brian Hartline, MIA
Deandre Hopkins, HOU
Vincent Brown, SD

After describing all the changes that can happen outside of the tri-cycle group of receivers, it would seem odd if I didn't throw in some sleeper picks before the main ranks.

Thompkins and Hankerson have star makers throwing them the football. Both Tom Brady and Robert Griffin III can create a star out of average players just on their skill set alone. With all the turmoil in New England, Thompkins has that opportunity, as does Hankerson with Washington's questionable receiving core.

Hard to say Hartline (who had 1,000 yards receiving last year) is much of a sleeper, but experts seem to be jazzed up about Ryan Tannehill. If the offensive line can create opportunites for the Miami run game, that should open things up for Tannehill who has Mike Wallace to air it out to. Hartline is an ideal possession receiver that could find his home zig zagging across the middle of the field.

Let's go through the WR ranks based on the emotions we will feel owning these players in 2013-2014.

TIER HUH?
45. Michael Floyd, ARZ
44. Emmanuel Sanders, PIT
43. Denarius Moore, OAK
42. Malcom Floyd, SD
41. Sidney Rice, SEA
40. Lance Moore, NO

Outside of Sidney Rice, none of these receivers have made their inprint on fantasy. Some may never. But they all of reasons to make you curious and go huh? Denarius Moore is my personal favorite out of this group. He did bring down 7 TD's last year, but was wildly inconsistent. His elite speed wasn't utilized by then QB Carson Palmer, so I openly wonder where he could fit in and how he can be relied upon week after week. The obvious answer is tha the probably can't, but he's got some zoom zoom.

TIER WHOA!
39. Anquan Boldin, SF
38. Kenny Britt, TEN
37. Chris Givens, STL
36. Miles Austin, DAL
35. Steve Johnson, BUF
34. Josh Gordon, CLE
33. Golden Tate, SEA

These guys will make their fair share of SportsCenter clips. They all have big game and big play ability. There are some notable names on here that we shouldn't get carried away with though. Boldin, Britt, Johnson and Austin are all bigger names, but they are also in a position to get easily out positioned by some of the up and comers on this list. Josh Gordon and Golden Tate I'm very high on. Pun not intended, Josh.

TIER COME ON!?
32. Greg Jennings, MIN
31. Tavon Austin, STL
30. Mike Williams, TB
29. James Jones, GB
28. T.Y. Hilton, IND
27. Cecil Shorts, JAX

Get ready for the roller coaster ride. Want to revel in glory one week only to loathe a player the next? Here are your inconsistency all-stars. Some, like Jennings and Williams, have their QB to worry about, while others like Austin and Jones are too young/unproven and too reliant on solely TD catches ... respectively. If Green Bay truly, really, definitely means to run the ball more, than Jones' TDs could be in trouble. Let's face it, he's not hauling in 14 TDs again.

The last two here, Hilton and Shorts could be game breakers. I mentioned earlier that Hankerson and Thompkins have star makers at QB, and well, the first time I head that phrase, it was when an analyst was describing Andrew Luck. The beneficiary of his pixie dust? T.Y. Hilton.

Shorts has a couple more short falls than Hilton, but he's not fighting Reggie Wayne for touches.

TIER MOTHER F'ER!
26. Jordy Nelson, GB
25. Mike Wallace, MIA
24. DeSean Jackson, PHI
23. Pierre Garcon, WAS
22. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
21. Eric Decker, DEN
20. Torrey Smith, BAL

Here are all guys you will undoubtedly hate to own. They all seem to be frustrating on some level. Whether it's injuries, production, inconsistency, or just a general personal dislike. Note: I should have just called this TIER DESEAN JACKSON as he encompassess all of the above.

TIER I'M PLEASANTLY SURPRISED ...
19. Antonio Brown, PIT
18. Steve Smith, CAR 
17. Wes Welker, DEN
16. Danny Amendola, NE
15. Reggie Wayne, IND
14. Marques Colston, NO

No one is going to be too thrilled to grab these players. They are decidedly unsexy, have some fleas that could derail their season, but you know what - when the dust settles, we'll all be fine and dandy with what they gave us.

TIER WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE?
13. Roddy White, ATL
12. Dwayne Bowe, KC
11. Andre Johnson, HOU

These three stars are shockingly low. Especially White and Johnson. Bowe has the most pressure on him as people are expecting a White or Johnson type year out of them.

Following my theory, Johnson is just working his way down the WR ladder after years of dominance. Injuries and now a struggling quarterback are sure to leave some of Johnson's remaining talent untapped.

White is perpetually underrated. He comes through big more often than not, and I'm a fan. But I have to ask, when is he passing the baton over to Julio Jones? I think this might be the year Jones is truly the #1 wideout in Atlanta. Keep in mind that White received more targets, was more consistent, and drew the top defensive coverage. Jones might have matched him production wise, but on the field, White was still top billing.

TIER OUT OF NOWHERE
10. Victor Cruz, NYG
9. Randall Cobb, GB
8. Vincent Jackson, TB

Vincent Jackson probably has the most stable track record of the three, but after a shaky last year in San Diego and a messy contract situation, he melded nicely with the passing attack in Tampa Bay. V-Jax's issues are the opposite of A.J. Green's in that QB Josh Freeman can throw it deep all day long - and in Jackson's case last year, to great success - but getting those short possession routes and receptions to Jackson is tough. His 69 catches last year were a career high, so he's not earned a nod towards the elite level yet.

It's not surprising that Cruz took a step back from his 2011 breakout season. So much of that was tied to miraculous plays and horrible Eagles defense, but that's not meant to take away from Cruz at all. He showed last year was no fluke, but a little extra coverage from a health Hakeem Nicks goes a long way.

Randall Cobb was a big favorite of mine before last year started. He has all the explosiveness you know Aaron Rodgers could utilize, but playing time would be tough. Behind Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones there wasn't much of an opportunity for him initially. This led to him returning punts and playing some at RB to get his hands on the ball. Fortunately for Cobb, Jennings and Nelson battled injuries all year and Jermichael Finley continued to be Jermichael Finley. As a result Cobb turned into a quasi-#1 receiver in Green Bay. It'll be interesting to see how he handles more focus from opposing team's defenses, and Rodgers is good enough he'll just throw the ball to whoever is open. So he doesn't have to lean on Cobb like other QBs do true #1s, so that might put some variance in his targets week to week. Overall though, Green Bay knows what they have and they will put him to work.

TIER CHURNERS
7. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
6. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
5. Julio Jones, ATL
4. Dez Bryant, DAL

This year's wide receiver class is strong. All of these wide outs have the possiblity of finishing in the Top 2. Let's just talk about Dez for a few. The guy post-Week 10 was a monster. He had 47 catches, 792 yards, and 9 TDs. That's all Week 10 and after! It's hard to imagine him keeping those numbers for an entire season, but it's not hard to imagine what he is capable of. There is no spoon.

Larry Fitzgerald, crazy talented, bad QB, is this a better QB, back on track, disappointment, is he even good anymore, etc.

Thomas seems to be the safest pick out of all the Denver wide receivers simply because he's the most dynamic out of the bunch. Welker seems geared up to get his catches, and Decker might be viewed widely to get the small piece of chicken, those two are a lot closer than most rankings state. Thomas though is the match-up nightmare with the ability to make plays in all quadrants of the football field.

TIER TRI-CYCLE
3. Brandon Marshall, CHI
2. A.J. Green, CIN
1. Calvin Johnson, DET

There's been enough said about #2 and #1 already, so let's give some love to Brandon Marshall. Sure, he's a head case, but not as much as #4 over there. He was reunited with Jay Cutler and returned to his 100 catch self. In fact he got the most targets of any NFL WR not birthed by Arica Johnson. His overall environment is tough to beat: pass happy QB, offensive minded coach, great receiver. At age 29 people might be more enamored with Dez Bryant or Julio Jones, but NFL receivers that can stay healthy age quite well. This is going to be another big year for Marshall.