Fantasy Funkhouser: Learning When to Hold 'Em, When to Fold 'Em, and Why Gambling is Still Important in Fantasy Baseball

Phil Ivey uses his gut almost as much as his stats.

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Phil Ivey is one of the most well known and respected card players out there. His skills and ability to transition from poker to baccarat to craps to black jack is a spectacle to behold. While poker will always be his calling card and sure when you can lose millions gambling on sports only to go win it all back tossing some dice, there isn't as much inherent risk when Phil Ivey gambles as opposed to when you or I gamble. 

Even with his high powered gambling brain and ability to routinely mop the floor with a poker table of gamblers, Ivey still is a gambler. As Mike McDermott insists in Rounders to his wet blanket girlfriend Jo, "It's not luck," as it pertains to his card playing (if you thought a loosely based gambling intro to a fantasy baseball column written by someone in their early 30's wasn't getting a Rounders reference, then you are the sucker at the table). As the movie plays out and as we see time and time again, yes, a part of it is luck. You might have all the numbers, all the facts, all the odds, all the skills - but when push comes to shove and those chips are on the line ... you're brain tells you to just go for it. To hell with what the odds say.

Ivey won't pass up an opportunity to upend the integrity of gambling by running and gunning to win $10M (albeit done through very skillful means). 

Fantasy sports and baseball in particular have become more and more of an analytics game. Don't tell me what the guys girlfriend looks like, tell me what his O-Swing % is. There are such a litany of stats to look at and pick a part and sample sizes to digest that it's easy to get swallowed up in that. 

What we've seen so far this year though, is that it pays to be bold. Some of the top ranked players across all positions were risks at draft time. They had their reasons for not being drafted earlier, but to those bold people out there, they are paying huge dividends. 

Albert Pujols
Doubted. Denied. Disrespected. The greatest hitter of a generation has his feet under him and is rounding back into the kind of post peak decline fitting a player of Pujols' stature. His drop in form last year was more reminiscent of Wile E. Coyote. 

Dee Gordon
Hahaha, Dee Gordon? Can't steal first base. He's not a major leaguer. Oh, experts had their fun with Flash Gordon. Billy Hamilton? He has a shot, but Gordon - no way! An improved walk and contact rate has plopped him on first base more than ever, and he's running wild. Not too easy to make fun of Dee now.

Johnny Cueto
I mean come on with this. 99.5% strand rate helps his league leading ERA. But 3 CG's for a guy with an injury history that forced him to alter his mechanics. It's not all witchcraft and dreadlocks. I don't know if this season will end with a Cy Young, but it is well on its way. 

Francisco Rodriguez
The reemergence of K-Rod might be the most nonsensical thing of the baseball season thus far. The guy was toast two years ago, and his peripherals this year don't really show him keeping this up, but he's getting it done. Someone bid $5 on him in my keeper league at the start of the season, and I thought that was insane. Not so much now. He had his first hiccup against the Pirates, but I'm pretty sure we would have all bet the over if May 14th was the date we were given for first K-Rod meltdown. 

Jose Abreu
Masahiro Tanaka
These two are lumped together because they are on a path to the greatest Rookie of the Year battle ever. Sure, they aren't really rookies and they certainly aren't playing like rooks either. I thought early on people were really ragging on Jose Abreu's skill set. Experts said there were some concerns with his swing. That he could get overmatched by top level pitchers. Well, things seem to be going well so far. 

Tanaka is basically Stephen Strasburg with a killer splitter instead of the high heat. He's been baffling hitters with his array of pitches. His start is historic, and the guy everyone pegged as no Yu Darvish is dealing like an elite pitcher. He could wear down later in the year, but the skills are there and they are real. 



Yasiel Puig
Let's be honest with Puig. We all kind of wanted him to fail. It's hard to wrap your head around a guy that plays all out like this can cover up issues like swinging at bad pitches, making bad decisions on the field, oh and potentially getting hunted down by Mexican criminals just on pure will and talent. Well, Puig has been able to make noted improvements in his approach in the batter's box. After a slow start it's full speed ahead for the Wild Horse. He's creeping his way to the Mike Trout level of talk. Oh wait, ESPN already did that. Hasta luego, bat. 

Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Ranks - Rounds 6 through 8

Why is Everth Cabrera getting different treatment compared to other PED users? (utsandiego.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Not to double up on the content, but rounds 6 through 8 have a lot of my Mancrush picks I wrote about last week. Of course, the list isn't off to a great start after Jurickson Profar profar'd everyone that drafted him, but anyway what you'll find are a lot of players I'm more bullish on; ready to pick ahead of most people's ADP. I dislike to use the word reaching because that indicates you're selecting someone above where you think they should be selected. I'm simply using my personal rankings and picking thusly.

This is a big reason I started doing my own ranks; to play off the ADP and know when I wanted and didn't want to take a player. Personal rankings have your own touch to them, so if you have confidence in yourself, you should take the time to do it. The rankings beyond the first 5 rounds really start getting muddy when you compare them amongst ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, etc. There are sites that pool all of this information together for you, but I always like to know how I feel about certain players - not just an average of these sites. I've been refining my ranking system, and this is the year I've probably leaned the most heavily on it in live drafts. By that I mean, if I take Jose Altuve, I largely have no idea if the people I'm drafting with think I'm taking him too early or too late. And, for the first time, I don't care.

It's always important to preface this by saying, I have someone like Pedro Alvarez ranked #63 overall. Now, in a snake draft, that doesn't mean I would take him with the 63rd pick. If he's ranked 80+ on the site I'm using, well I'm going to assume that most people are operating within the confines of that sites rankings. Very rarely will I see another owner take someone out of the blue and think that they made a wise choice. Usually it's someone taking Curtis Granderson in the 3rd Round or something. So, I will bide my time. If Alvarez it ticketed to go 87th overall, I won't use my 6th Round pick, but maybe I'll jump early in the 7th or depending on how the picks fall, happily take him in the 8th or 9th Round. There's no sound strategy to knowing when a player will be taken, but by following your own ranks and playing them off the site's ranks there is plenty of room for added value. Now a couple of notes on players that weren't MANCRUSHED...

I've been a Ryan Zimmerman defender for a long time, but he once again needed a huge final couple of months in 2013 to get to the numbers his owners were hoping for. He says his shoulder feels better than ever, but realistically last year should have been a return to form. I'm not saying that Zimmerman can't get back to 25 HR and 80+RBI, but I will note all it will take is him not being able to find his magic bat in August and September to have a very disappointing season.

The more I see of Jose Abreu the more I like him. The Cuban slugger is battling some ankle issues from apparently wearing quality baseball cleats, but he should be able to adjust and move past that rather smoothly. I mentioned earlier that Spring Training stats are largely useless, but it's been helpful to see what Abreu can do. What I do see is a guy with legit power and a guy that isn't striking out a lot. For all the talk of his home run potential, I'd be surprised if he batted under .270 for the year. His floor is much higher than many think.

Everth Cabrera is at the middle of one of my myths of the offseason so far. The first was the love for Clayton Kershaw (justified) by experts drafting him as high as 3rd overall in drafts (not justified). If you want to go ahead and do that, then you have to accept that Kershaw - in all his greatness - isn't that much better than Darvish or Wainwright or Scherzer of 2013 and those players should be bumped up your draft board as well.

The E-Cab myth is that while players like Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz and the other PED suspendees are being dragged through the mud, Cabrera is somehow being projected to have a career year. PEDs can certainly help power, but the skill set around them remains unchanged. No one thinks Braun is going to hit 12 HR or that Jhonny Peralta will hit .220 AVG, but they're being cast in a negative light. Well, if you're anti those guys, how can you not be more anti-Cabrera? This was a guy that last year was having a career year batting at a higher average than ever before, with 4 HR (he has 9 total in his career), and stole 37 bases in 94 games. Sure seems like something might have been helping him out! PEDs won't make Cabrera a 30 HR hitter, but will it keep him healthy or give him more velocity on balls he makes contact with? Presumably. But for whatever reason - I guess because he's fast and not a power hitter - he's getting to capitalize on his 2013 numbers. Something no suspended PED user has been blessed with. If Cabrera truly can capitalize on those strides from last year, then he has the ability to be the 2nd or 3rd ranked shortstop overall. I'm leaning more towards Cabrera, yes, making strides, but more in line with his career averages. He has made changes to his approach at the plate to get on base more, which will translate to steal opportunities. Also, I'm not mad at the Padres' offense this year. I can see a solid year from Cabrera if he can stay healthy, but let's not forget a straight extrapolation of his 2013 numbers would be rather ridiculous.

Really like what I've been seeing from Jordan Zimmermann. He appears to have worked on correcting his biggest problem from 2013, a low K rate. This is the first apperance he's made on my ranks in 2014, but as I've been updating them week to week, he's taken large leaps up the board.

I'm comfortable with Billy Hamilton at #86 overall. The Reds didn't give him a roster spot to send him down in May. He'll get a shot, and even if he can't handle lead-off duties, he is still in a position batting in the bottom of the order where he can steal a lot of bases. Like a lot, a lot. Hamilton even showed that as strictly a bench player he can make a huge impact as most of his opportunities in 2013 were from the pine to the field as a pinch runner. He has value, and in a roto league can free your roster up in a lot of ways come draft day. Let's hope he can do his namesake proud.

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM
61	Jason Heyward	OF	20	ATL
62	Matt Carpenter	2B	5	STL
63	Pedro Alvarez	3B	6	PIT
64	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	7	WAS
65	Elvis Andrus	SS	6	TEX
66	Kenley Jansen	RP	3	LAD
67	Jose Altuve	2B	6	HOU
68	Wil Myers	OF	21	TB
69	Joe Mauer	C	2	MIN
70	Jayson Werth	OF	22	WAS
71	Alex Gordon	OF	23	KC
72	Shane Victorino	OF	24	BOS
73	Jose Abreu	1B	11	CHW
74	Anibal Sanchez	SP	15	DET
75	Everth Cabrera	SS	7	SD
76	Alex Cobb	SP	16	TB
77	Greg Holland	RP	4	KC
78	Josh Donaldson	3B	8	OAK
79	Anthony Rizzo	1B	12	CHC
80	Mark Trumbo	1B	13	ARZ
81	Yadier Molina	C	3	STL
82	Kyle Seager	3B	9	SEA
83	James Shields	SP	17	KC
84	Josh Hamilton	OF	25	LAA
85	Pablo Sandoval	3B	10	SF
86	Billy Hamilton	OF	26	CIN
87	Ben Zobrist	SS	8	TB
88	Carlos Santana	C	4	CLE
89	Manny Machado	3B	11	BAL
90	Wilin Rosario	C	5	COL
91	Carlos Beltran	OF	27	NYY
92	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	18	WAS
93	Starlin Castro	SS	9	CHC
94	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	19	NYY
95	Brett Lawrie	2B	7	TOR
96	Matt Kemp	OF	28	LAD

On Deck: Danny Salazar, Sonny Gray, Brandon Belt

OVERALL THUS FAR

We are finally starting to see some shifting around of the rankings. This is obviously the result of the start of the regular season nearing and some injuries/issues taking their toll. Very little of this has to do with Spring Training performances because aside from health - the statistics mean next to nothing. 

Yu Darvish came down with another nagging injury from sleeping, and he will now start the season on the DL. I literally mentioned this a couple weeks ago as a concern for Darvish, and while he has been cleared from any serious injury, this is something I can no longer ignore. The competition at SP is steep, so this is enough for me to drop him down my rankings. Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale move up to #2 and #3 starting pitchers respectively, with Felix Hernandez and then Yu Darvish following suit.

In the outfield there has been some rumbling with Yasiel Puig tumbling down to my rankings. He's already gotten into some on-field issues due to his horrid base running and 'tude. Combine that with his apparent incessant "injuries" to his back and shoulders. Something isn't right with this guy. 

Avenge me, Justin Upton! AVENGE ME!

Final note, Justin Verlander is coming, boys and girls. 

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	BAL
10	Chris Davis	1B	3	TOR
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	NYY
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA
13	Bryce Harper	OF	6	WAS
14	Adrian Beltre	3B	3	TEX
15	Joey Votto	1B	3	CIN
16	Adam Jones	OF	7	BAL
17	Carlos Gomez	OF	8	MIL
18	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	2	COL
19	Jason Kipnis	2B	2	CLE	20
20	Prince Fielder	1B	4	TEX	19
21	Evan Longoria	3B	4	TB
22	Stephen Strasburg	SP	2	WAS	28
23	David Wright	3B	5	NYM
24	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3	BOS
25	Chris Sale	SP	3	CHI	26
26	Felix Hernanez	SP	4	SEA	25
27	Ian Desmond	SS	3	WAS
28	Yu Darvish	SP	5	TEX	22
29	Alex Rios	OF	9	TEX
30	Freddie Freeman	1B	5	ATL
31	Adam Wainwright	SP	6	STL
32	Cliff Lee	SP	7	PHI
33	Hunter Pence	OF	10	TOR
34	Jose Bautista	OF	11	TOR
35	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	12	MIA	37
36	Justin Verlander	SP	8	DET	41
37	Justin Upton	OF	13	ATL	35
38	Jose Reyes	SS	4	TOR
39	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	14	TEX
40	Craig Kimbrel	RP	1	ATL
41	David Price	SP	9	TB	36
42	Matt Holliday	OF	15	STL	50
43	Buster Posey	C	1	SF
44	Jose Fernandez	SP	10	MIA
45	David Ortiz	1B	6	BOS
46	Madison Bumgarner	SP	11	SF
47	Max Scherzer	SP	12	DET
48	Jay Bruce	OF	16	CIN
49	Ian Kinsler	2B	4	DET
50	Yasiel Puig	OF	17	LAD	42
51	Eric Hosmer	1B	7	KC
52	Zack Greinke	SP	13	LAD
53	Starling Marte	OF	18	PIT
54	Albert Pujols	1B	8	LAA
55	Jean Segura	SS	5	MIL
56	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	9	LAD
57	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	19	OAK
58	Homer Bailey	SP	14	CIN
59	Aroldis Chapman	RP	2	CIN
60	Allen Craig	1B	10	STL
61	Jason Heyward	OF	20	ATL
62	Matt Carpenter	2B	5	STL
63	Pedro Alvarez	3B	6	PIT
64	Ryan Zimmerman	3B	7	WAS
65	Elvis Andrus	SS	6	TEX
66	Kenley Jansen	RP	3	LAD
67	Jose Altuve	2B	6	HOU
68	Wil Myers	OF	21	TB
69	Joe Mauer	C	2	MIN
70	Jayson Werth	OF	22	WAS
71	Alex Gordon	OF	23	KC
72	Shane Victorino	OF	24	BOS
73	Jose Abreu	1B	11	CHW
74	Anibal Sanchez	SP	15	DET
75	Everth Cabrera	SS	7	SD
76	Alex Cobb	SP	16	TB
77	Greg Holland	RP	4	KC
78	Josh Donaldson	3B	8	OAK
79	Anthony Rizzo	1B	12	CHC
80	Mark Trumbo	1B	13	ARZ
81	Yadier Molina	C	3	STL
82	Kyle Seager	3B	9	SEA
83	James Shields	SP	17	KC
84	Josh Hamilton	OF	25	LAA
85	Pablo Sandoval	3B	10	SF
86	Billy Hamilton	OF	26	CIN
87	Ben Zobrist	SS	8	TB
88	Carlos Santana	C	4	CLE
89	Manny Machado	3B	11	BAL
90	Wilin Rosario	C	5	COL
91	Carlos Beltran	OF	27	NYY
92	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	18	WAS
93	Starlin Castro	SS	9	CHC
94	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	19	NYY
95	Brett Lawrie	2B	7	TOR
96	Matt Kemp	OF	28	LAD