Fantasy Funkhouser: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - Round 1

Time to start building a super team. (thesimpsons.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

When I started writing about fantasy sports a couple odd years ago, I knew it was mostly for my own purposes. My own outlet. With the Internet the way it is, there's no telling if this would get 1 pair of eyeballs or 100,000. Getting 100,000 on a daily bases would be grand, but if only I was able to read this, then I'd be fine with that as well. As we enter into Year 2 of my fantasy baseball rankings, I am reminded of this as I scroll through past Fantasy Funkhouser articles. A lot of the stuff I've said or written about is pretty interesting to re-read. And aside from this article from two years ago brazenly stating that David Robertson is the new Yankees closer, most of the stuff has at least a morsel of worthwhile information stuffed in there. In particular I was proud of my Man Crush picks for last year (which will be back again in 2014), and my Leap Game article on Jose Fernandez. For the record Fernandez did get shelled that night in Cincy, but I think it's safe to say he pulled through. 

Reviewing what I wrote and the amount I wrote for my rankings struck me as daunting. Writing a narrative around an assortment of 12 players in a given week was a challenge, but also not quite worth it. There are much more capable minds to breakdown the nuances of drafting or strategy, and more people will tune into those advisers for that kind of player or draft analysis. I'd like to take more time focusing on the players not trying to build a catch-all article around them. I've competed my Top 250, so over the course of the next month, I'll be able to more quickly and efficiently make them available along with some of my thoughts. On the Big Board, I've added position rank as a reference as well, and while this will be a continually evolving list, I'll try to keep things as fresh as possible along with some analysis as to why a player might have moved up or down the list. 

In summation, if you're new to reading this or think you want to check in periodically, yes, there is some good stuff on here. 

With that all out of the way, time to look at the First Round of the 2014 Fantasy Funkhouser Rankings.

The first pick in the draft is truly a coin flip.  I had Mike Trout as my clear #1 overall selection a couple of months ago, and he could still very well be an excellent #1. However, as I looked into things a bit further I started reviewing certain things. Like who finished higher in Yahoo's final standings (Cabrera #1, Trout #4) or who was on top of ESPN's player rater in 2013 (Cabrera), and who earned more auction dollars (Cabrera $47, Trout $43)? In all of the fantasy rankings Cabrera was still the man to beat. When you look at that and also note that Cabrera has 3B and will soon have 1B eligibility, that is a big plus. Also, Cabrera battled a groin injury over the past month of the season and through the playoffs - so he was capable of an even greater year than he had! And for all you Triple Crown truthers out there, Cabrera had better numbers across the board last year than his Triple Crown winning season in 2012. I guess that's the benefit of not having Chris Davis going off. It's a statistical anomaly, people. Not that it's not amazing, just not as big a deal as some would like you to believe.

Cabrera is still easily in his prime years, and let me just leave the Cabrera side of the argument with this:

.292 AVG/ 26 HR/ 105 RBI / 85 R/ 130 OPS+

That is a line made up of Cabrera's WORST seasons since he was a full-time player in 2004. Yes, that's the bottom of the barrel for Miggy. At this rate, he is legitimately one of the greatest players of all time. The back to back AL MVP along with his unmatched consistency and elite production for your fantasy game make him my top overall choice. He's good at baseball.




As for Trout, he's just the best consolation prize in fantasy history. The 22-year-old is all about breaking records and inspiring awe from those who watch him. Yes, those 2 MVPs with Miguel Cabrera engraved in them could and possibility should read Mike Trout, but this is fantasy people. We truly only care about offense. Trout batted away any body's regression voodoo and actually had a better baseball season in 2013. His LD% increased, his GB% dipped (which isn't too big a deal when you have Trout's speed), and he nearly doubled his walk total while striking out three less times despite playing in 18 more games. Trout is only getting better and although his baseball card stats didn't show it. 

The good news for Trout is that he's not going to be overly aggressive or make mistakes. He's going to be patient. If the pitcher wants to walk him, go ahead. If the pitcher makes a mistake, he'll crank out a double and steal 3rd because he feels like it. For Trout to surpass Cabrera the formula is pretty clear. He has to at the very least maintain his current hitting numbers: high 20's for homers and pushing 90+ RBI with at least a .310+ AVG. The push is going to come from runs scored and steals. When Trout led all of fantasy in 2012 he had 129 R and 49 SB. Those number dropped to 109 R and 33 SB last year, ironically enough due to  $363 MM worth of ball players in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. The severe lack in production from either of these overpriced superstars had a negative effect on Trout's ability to produce comparable runs scored numbers and while there isn't a direct correlation to the dip in steals, Trout has already indicated this Spring that he wants to steal more bases. There is no right or wrong answer for the #1 pick. If I'm fortunate enough to have the opportunity I want to own both Cabrera and Trout spread across my fantasy teams because they're just too fun to have.

For any questions regarding my Ryan Braun at #5 ranking, I refer you to this. 

I mentioned before that with the many question marks lining the offensive player pool this year, I would imagine pitchers like Clayton Kershaw or Yu Darvish or Craig Kimbrel going much earlier than in years past. This is clearly indicated with Kershaw going #7 overall on my board. You always want to try to lock up offense when you can because you can fill out your staff a bit later through free agency. There aren't many 30/20 guys relaxing on your watch list, but then again there aren't pitchers like Clayton Kershaw either. He has put together enough consistency and dominance to warrant this spot. Trusting Ramirez, Ellsbury, or even Encarnacion to be productive and healthy is a risky one. Chris Davis is worthy of a shot at #7, but there is some hesitancy for how much his production will regress. Plus he's more of a .260-.270 hitter and expecting 50+HR in this day and age just isn't the practice of a sane individual.

I am big on Encarnacion this year. His injury bug seems to be past him, and with him too adding 3B eligibility makes him a very tempting target. Imagine pulling him and Cabrera in a draft? Oh, boy. 

Finally, for Robinson Cano, his #12 overall rank is nothing more than where he normally should be ranked. Moving from the Yankees to the Mariners is overblown in the ballpark change sense. Who knows if Cano's relaxed attitude will become a hindrance in the more laid back city of Seattle as opposed to the cauldron that is New York City? There's really no one in Seattle that will or can keep Cano's attitude in check, so while there might be some mud slinging going on regarding his effort, I'm confident that the pressure of $240 MM will motivate him just fine. Cano has always been steady and honestly, been drafted much higher than his value dictates. I expect nothing more or less than what Cano has produced in previous seasons. 

RANK	PLAYER NAME	POS	POS RANK	TEAM	CHANGE
1	Miguel Cabrera	3B	1	DET
2	Mike Trout	OF	1	LAA
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	1	ARZ
4	Andrew McCutchen	OF	2	PIT
5	Ryan Braun	OF	3	MIL
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	4	COL
7	Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	LAD
8	Hanley Ramirez	SS	1	LAD
9	Chris Davis	1B	2	BAL
10	Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2	NYY
11	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	5	TOR
12	Robinson Cano	2B	1	SEA

On Deck: Adrian Beltre, Joey Votto, Bryce Harper

NOTE: IN REGARDS TO MULTI-POSITION ELIGIBLE PLAYERS, FOR RANKINGS SAKE, I'M LISTING THEM WHERE THEY EITHER CURRENTLY HAVE ELIGIBILITY OR WILL BE PRIMARILY USED IN FANTASY.

I.E. CABRERA WILL HAVE 1B ELIGIBILITY AS SOON AS YOUR LEAGUE ALLOWS IT, BUT I'LL LIST HIM AS 3B. OR JOE MAUER IS ONLY PLAYING 1B THIS YEAR, BUT IF YOU USE HIM AS ANYTHING BUT YOUR CATCHER YOU'RE SILLY.

Fantasy Funkhouser: Fantasy Baseball 2013 Ranks - Round 6

Mike Trout gets a lot of  fantasy title kudos, but I'd bet Kris Medlen did his fair share as well. (cleveland.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

One of many fantastic scenes in the underrated movie (500) Days of Summer is a scene in which our main character Tom (Joseph Gordon-Levitt) attends a party thrown by the ex who has broken his woeful-emo-skinny-tie wearing heart - that would be Summer of the movie title (Zooey Deschanel).

Upon arriving at the party, the screen splits in two showing the viewer the events as they play out in reality vs. how Tom expected things to go. Needless to say, the two scenarios did not match up. His expectation fell far below the reality of the situation. To anyone else other than him, this isn't surprising. But to Tom? This was a crushing shock to his Alt-J system. He wasn't able to see beyond his emotional feelings towards Summer leaving anything other than a monumental success.

Reality bites.

Unless you are able to match up reality with your expectation.

So now that you're roughly 150 words into a fantasy baseball article that has only mentioned a quality rom-com from 2009, you can probably see where this is going. It is important to not get carried away with personal feelings and emotions when evaluating players for fantasy.

Now, it is ironic in an Alanis Morissette kind of way that in a game with FANTASY in the title, I'm telling you to be more grounded, but it matters.

One of the best things about getting into baseball analytics and sabermetrics is that it forces you to look at the cold hard numbers. Feelings and emotions and those gut instincts will always be there and need to be played every once in a while, but embracing the numbers will allow you to make more correct decisions than not. It's the difference between when I was 11 and thought Darren Dreifort was one of the nastiest pitchers out there (because I felt it) as compared to last year when I willfully allowed Angel Pagan to be one of my regular OF for the last couple months of the season (because the numbers told me I needed his stats) as I won my keeper league title.

Aligning your expectations with reality will put you in the best place to succeed not only in your draft, but also as the season progresses.

The dichotomy of this situation came to my attention a couple of weeks ago when I was on a Fangraphs page and came across a comment that  was comparing overall draft ranks and mentioned the typical numbers for Robinson Cano and Miguel Cabrera. It read as follows:

Cano is a Cabrera type bat. .300 hitter, 30 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI. I mean Cabrera is slightly better and that is why he goes higher but they put up some pretty comparable stats most years.

I scrolled about a quarter of the way past the comment, when it hit me. That's not right at all. In my head at the time, and maybe yours right now, you might say, yeah .300/30/100/100 is about right for an average Cano season. This is where expectation is not matching the reality of the situation.

Digging up some of the more baseline numbers, would you believe that Cano has only 2 seasons with 100 or more RBI? Also, since Cabrera became a full time player 10 years ago, he's hit 30 or more homers in 9 out of 10 seasons? Cano has only hit 30 or more homers one time. Uno.

If you compare their average stats over 162 game average, you get a dramatic year to year difference.

Cano's 162 game average over 8 years: 
.308AVG, 96R, 24HR, 95RBI, .894OPS

Cabrera's 162 game average over 10 years: 
.318AVG, 103R, 34HR, 120RBI, .956OPS

This doesn't make Cano the horse meat in your IKEA meatball. Nor may it matter that much in redraft leagues, but there are fantasy players out there who will gloss over details like this. Make assumptions about players that aren't nearly true, or even worse begin lumping players in together. Cano v. Cabrera is an easy assessment to make, but as we dig deeper into Round 6 of my ranks, those differences are the ones that may uncover the value in players your letting your expectations get in the way of reality. 

Funny how things work out in my rankings. Round 5 was all about the breakout stars we know are on their way to stardom. As we look at #61-#72, we come across many a player that has us asking, "Can they do it again?" It's one question that is being asked in two different ways. For vets like Roy Halladay, Jimmy Rollins, CC Sabathia, and Aramis Ramirez we are asking to see if we can trust them to bounce back from injury or if age will finally take a bit out of their production.

The guy I'd like to single out in this group is Halladay. He's coming off the most severe injury and had the worst season in 2012. Bottom line is that I'm not worried about Doc. He's had to reinvent himself as a pitcher in the past, and he's done it again. He changed his off season training to better focus on what was ailing him, and in his first spring training start he looked good and was hitting 88-91 on the gun. In general, pitchers ease their velocity up during spring, so the fact Halladay was already hitting 91 is a great sign. His dominant pitching style fits perfectly for a 36 year old. Movement, working both sides of the plate, and just the knowledge that comes along with pitching all those years. There might be some challenges (the team behind him for one) and maybe he gets his pitch count watched a bit more, so making him your SP1 isn't the worst thing in the world, but I'd be more than happy with him as my SP2 for 2013.

For younger guys like Aroldis Chapman, Austin Jackson, Kris Medlen, and Chase Headley we are asking to see if they can build upon a small track record of success.

A lot of the press for the group above has been for Chapman and his conversion to starter. Arguably the most devastating closer in baseball last year, Chapman is being pushed to the starting rotation and there's any number of ways this could go great or go wrong. But for the next couple sentences, I want to focus on Kris Medlen. Medlen was subject to reverse Stephen Strasburg treatment coming off of Tommy John surgery. He started the season easing his way into games through the bullpen, then tore apart the league in the second half. In 95 IP he had a K/9 of 8.97 and a WHIP of 0.82.

I mentioned him last August in my post-deadline column, and while I slightly favored Mike Minor at the time (who did great as well) you best be sure I was monitoring Medlen and added him early and often.

Of course, everyone wants to alert the regression police for Medlen. Sure, he won't be Bob Gibson, and he'll regress in the way Mike Trout will regress (megastar to superstar) but he'll still be a top #2 or #3 starter for your fantasy squad.

RANK	NAME	POSITION
61	YADIER MOLINA	C
62	CC SABATHIA	SP
63	AROLDIS CHAPMAN	SP/RP
64	JOHNNY CUETO	SP
65	JASON KIPNIS	2B
66	ARAMIS RAMIREZ	3B
67	AUSTIN JACKSON	OF
68	KRIS MEDLEN	SP
69	DESMOND JENNINGS	OF
70	ROY HALLADAY	SP
71	CHASE HEADLEY	3B
72	JIMMY ROLLINS	SS

On Deck: Matt Moore, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Teixiera, Chris Sale


OVERALL RANKINGS THUS FAR

Obviously the larges shift took place as a result of Curtis Granderson taking a J.A. Happ fastball of his wrist in his first spring training game. He'll be out 10 weeks with the injury and thus taking up your DL spot. I'm all for utilizing the DL spot early on, but the difference with Granderson is that even though he is out for a while, he'll still be highly O-ranked. Utilizing that DL spot and getting zero out of a 5th or 6th round pick is tough to stomach. 

There are a lot of ways to approach this Granderson injury. What's his value + the replacement player you add? Will he come back healthy and within the 10 weeks? Will he be ready to go or need some minor league at bats? You even have to ask, what if he just has an off year or regresses - which many people think he will? Remember he couldn't hit anything in the playoffs last year, and if this was a normal Yankees line-up with top to bottom talent, I could see him getting buried. Of course, this is not your normal Yankees line-up, so a prime spot in the batting order will be waiting for him upon his return.

I dropped him down to 101 in my rankings, but if you want him you'll probably have to take him around 2 rounds earlier. Not worth it for me.

Also, in sticking with my reality v. expectation theme, I scaled my blessed ignorance towards Starlin Castro a bit. His strides from 2011 to 2012 weren't all that great. His OPS actually dropped by .020 along with his average and runs scored. He's young, can clearly hit, and entering his age 22 season is probably a year or two away from starting his superstar path, but that's not this year. He has more red flags than China, and the whole mental lapse/low energy argument against players is a real thing. Attitude matters. So, sigh, I'm bumping Troy Tulowitzki up a couple of rungs. 

Finally, a quick adjustment in my top 10. A lot of projections I've seen peg Albert Pujols to have a Pujolsian type year. He may not approach his 14-16 steal mark in his prime, but a healthy and productive Pujols is better than Carlos Gonzalez.

RANK	NAME	POSITION	CHANGE	PREVIOUSLY
1	MIGUEL CABRERA	3B
2	RYAN BRAUN	OF
3	MIKE TROUT	OF
4	JOEY VOTTO	1B
5	ANDREW MCCUTCHEN	OF
6	MATT KEMP	OF
7	ROBINSON CANO	2B
8	ALBERT PUJOLS	1B	↑	9
9	CARLOS GONZALEZ	OF	↓	8
10	JUSTIN VERLANDER	SP
11	PRINCE FIELDER	1B
12	CLAYTON KERSHAW	SP
13	JASON HEYWARD	OF
14	GIANCARLO STANTON	OF
15	DAVID WRIGHT	3B
16	FELIX HERNANDEZ	SP
17	JUSTIN UPTON	OF
18	JOSE BAUTISTA	OF
19	EVAN LONGORIA	3B
20	STEPHEN STRASBURG	SP
21	BUSTER POSEY	C/1B
22	ADRIAN BELTRE	3B
23	JOSH HAMILTON	OF
24	HANLEY RAMIREZ	3B/SS
25	ADAM JONES	OF
26	DAVID PRICE	SP
27	TROY TULOWITZKI	SP	↑	32
28	MATT CAIN	SS	↓	27
29	IAN KINSLER	2B
30	EDWIN ENCARNACION	1B/DH
31	COLE HAMELS	SP
32	STARLIN CASTRO	SS	↓	28
33	DUSTIN PEDROIA	2B
34	JAY BRUCE	OF
35	JOSE REYES	SS
36	CLIFF LEE	SP
37	ADRIAN GONZALEZ	1B/OF
38	MATT HOLLIDAY	OF
39	RYAN ZIMMERMAN	3B
40	JACOBY ELLSBURY	OF
41	ADAM WAINWRIGHT	SP
42	MADISON BUMGARNER	SP
43	ZACK GREINKE	SP
44	BRYCE HARPER	OF
45	JERED WEAVER	SP
46	BRANDON PHILLIPS	2B
47	ALLEN CRAIG	1B/OF
48	YU DARVISH	SP
49	YOENIS CESPEDES	OF
50	BILLY BUTLER	1B
51	BEN ZOBRIST	2B/SS/OF
52	PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT	1B
53	GIO GONZALEZ	SP
54	PABLO SANDOVAL	3B
55	BRETT LAWRIE	3B
56	R.A. DICKEY	SP
57	CRAIG KIMBREL	RP
58	MAT LATOS	SP
59	B.J. UPTON	OF
60	IAN DESMOND	SS	↓	52
61	YADIER MOLINA	C
62	CC SABATHIA	SP
63	AROLDIS CHAPMAN	SP/RP
64	JOHNNY CUETO	SP
65	JASON KIPNIS	2B
66	ARAMIS RAMIREZ	3B
67	AUSTIN JACKSON	OF
68	KRIS MEDLEN	SP
69	DESMOND JENNINGS	OF
70	ROY HALLADAY	SP
71	CHASE HEADLEY	3B
72	JIMMY ROLLINS	SS

The Funkman says: "They said I was washed up after Super Dave."