FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 16

Bad weather? Chicago defense? Neither of these should have stopped you from playing James Jones. (nbcsports.msnbc.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

It's the most wonderful time of the year. Well, unless you were facing Russell Wilson or opted to play the Ravens' defense over those hapless Arizona Cardinals.

There are no right answers in the last couple of weeks of the fantasy football season. It seems like there are more pitfalls and traps on the way to that championship than on a course in Mario Kart. And that perception is, in fact reality. Match-up plays and hot streaks are all well and good in Week 4, but when the season is on the line, and you're looking at a match-up between one of your proven studs and a riskier pick - that can be a recipe for disaster.

Waffling on starting certain players is the norm for fantasy sports; especially football. It's why every sports site on the planet has rankings, projected stats, start 'em/sit 'em advice, etc. People have a need to know who to start.

Where these playoff weeks come into picture is that after a long season, you are at max capacity for information on these teams and players. Virtually everyone on your roster has either carried you to victory in some weeks and subsequently no-showed in others. Teams have been good, bad, and everything in between. Combine that with the added pressure of the playoffs, well it's easy for your heard to swirl.

The luckiest of us didn't have too many tough choices. You start Tom Brady, you play Adrian Peterson, or you sit Robert Griffin III. Of course those aren't the choices that get us burned. Those choices are around the WR3 spot or the TE spot, or if we're playing matchmaker with Kickers and D/ST.

In these cases, I always say stick to your guns. Clear your mind, and as you meditate to approach nirvana - in that moment - you select your line-up. Trying to reduce a season's worth of Chris Johnson stats to see if he's a good play this week only to have him be outscored by Danny Woodhead would make you crazy enough, let alone be a huge waste of your time.

It may seem short sighted to go with the "live by the sword, die by the sword" strategy at this point of the year, but you can ask everyone that started Josh Freeman against a horrible New Orleans pass defense over, well, basically anyone - how they feel.

Perhaps there is no better example of over thinking leading to the collapse of a championship run than James Jones. A FAABulous favorite, Jones has stepped up for the Packers all year and he continued that pattern last week nabbing 3 touchdowns and leading all WR in scoring.

But that sounds great, right? Right, it does.

But thanks to some over analyzing and nerves, the current leading touchdown receiver in the NFL was only started in 32% of leagues. How can this be? A guy with 9 TDs going into the game, hardly started in any leagues?

Well, here's the anti-Jones argument. He was facing the Chicago Bears defense in Chicago. The weather was not great. Also, with Jordy Nelson out, Jones could count on some more attention being thrown his way. Furthermore, as a player, Jones had only put up one double digit performance (10 points) in his previous 4 games. Continually, with only 51 receptions on the year, you're basically banking on Jones hauling in a score to be productive. In conclusion, I'll start Sidney Rice over him.

Now, there certainly were reasons to be hesitant in this one-time match-up, but in a standard Yahoo! league with three wide receiver spots, Jones should have been an automatic based on his work all season.

Taking a flier on a Justin Blackmon, Lance Moore, or even T.Y. Hilton type player left you on the short end of the stick.

There's not much roster moving needed for Week 16. You have your squad, and if you're still playing then you should be in good shape. But there are some positions to be weary of (like RGIII's injury and the fact that Terrelle Pryor is now a starting quarterback in the NFL). So I'll make some mentions of deeper adds and match-up plays for kickers and D/ST you should be on the look out for to close out the 2012 season. Same rules apply, though - owned in less that 50% of Yahoo! FFL.

It took until Week 16, but time to shine the FAABulous spotlight on some defense. (newstimes.com)

QB's - Here are some QB picks in case your starter is dinged up or has been shaky.

Guys I'm talking about: RGIII (injury), Matthew Stafford (ATL), Andy Dalton (@PIT), Josh Freeman (STL)

Russell Wilson, SEA (35% owned) SF

We are still doing this? At this point I'd add Wilson so your opponent can't get him.

Sam Bradford, STL (22%) @TB

Bradford has been a top 10 QB over the past 4 weeks. Put up more points than Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning. It would be ideal to have him in a dome, but no one has given up more fantasy points to opposing QB's than the Bucs.

Jake Locker, TEN (17%) @GB

The move for Locker is for a cheap, high floor guy. The weather in Titletown forecasts as sunny, but frigid. Not great passing weather. But for Locker he doesn't turn the ball over, and all he needs is a passing TD to go with his rushing yardage and you have a solid 14 points.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Joe Webb, MIN (0%) @HOU

Here's a picture. Vikings down 30 points, Houston clinched home field, and with their 3rd stringers, here comes Joe Webb. Garbage time can be a beautiful thing.

TE's - There have been a lot of up and down TE's this year. If you have a fringe guy or someone that's been struggling lately, you have to go get someone that will put up points.

Guys I'm talking about: Brandon Myers, Kyle Rudolph, Antonio Gates (bad QB), Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek (no shows)

Dennis Pitta, BAL (5%) NYG

Speaking of ups and downs, Pitta looked like a Pro Bowler, then disappeared for the last 8-9 weeks. But he appears to be back on Joe Flacco's limited radar. Take a shot while he's still gravitationally pulling passes to his body.

Lance Kendricks, STL (1%) @TB

What applies to Bradford applies to Kendricks. Tampa has given up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends this season. With the Bucs tough run defense, another 50+ attempt day for Bradford isn't out of the question. Opportunities abound.

Dallas Clark, TB (25%) STL

Clark hasn't been very productive. Between Doug Martin being an attractive check down option and the big play offense of the Bucs, Clark has been a lost man. The pass attempts will need to be at a high number for Clark to get receptions, but a TD isn't out of the question.

Anthony Fasano, MIA (5%) BUF

Two straight weeks have meant two straight TD's for Fasano. Are him and Ryan Tannehill beginning to click, or is it just a coincidence? Against an average Buffalo secondary, it might be worth trying to find out.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Benjamin Watson, CLE (4%) @DEN

I mentioned the Bucs were good for 6th most points allowed to TE's, well Denver is numero uno. Number 1.  The TE opposing that team is Mr. Watson. If anyone can come out of nowhere and nab you a high point total or leave you with a goose egg it's Watson.

FOR ALL YOU STREAMERS OUT THERE

Made your bread this season by picking and choosing kickers and D/ST. Slow clap for you, potential fantasy champ. You've done it the hard way. Here are a couple streamers I like heading to the final week.

Kickers - 

Olindo Mare, CHI (1%) @ARZ

Robbie Gould was placed on the IR, so Mare is back, and he booted 2 FG's at Green Bay. Like him in a controlled environment in the Midwest desert.

Alex Henery, PHI (17%) WAS

Henery has been sneaky good this year, connecting on 25 of 28 field goal opportunities. But, such is the plight of the place kicker, they can only perform when put in a position to perform. In their previous match-up in Washington, Henery had 8 fantasy points as the Eagles' only scores that game. I'd expect them to put a couple more points on the board, and get Henery some more opportunities.

Phil Dawson, CLE (25%) DEN

It's going to be unseasonably warm in Denver with no rain or snow and a light breeze. At high altitude with that breeze at Dawson's back, he should put up good points as his Browns have trouble putting the ball in the end zone.

Defense/Special Teams - 

Indianapolis (6%) @KC

Indy is pretty self-explanatory going against the Chiefs. For all the chaos that has happened to the Chiefs recently, they were already a defeated team, and I see no reason for them to show up against a Colts team heading to the playoffs.

Carolina (10%) OAK

I already mentioned the Pryor situation, and while the Panthers leaky run defense raises some eyebrows against the Raiders, overall they should be fine.

St. Louis (31%) @TB

Backed by two Janoris Jenkins TD's in Week 12, the Rams have actually been the 2nd highest producing fantasy defense in the last 4 weeks behind Seattle. They can pressure the QB and have shown the ability to put up double digit fantasy points. Aside from a hiccup last week, depending on what Josh Freeman shows up, the Rams' defense has a high upside in Week 16.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 15

You...are welcome for wi..nning you a spot in your lea...gue's playoffs. - Adrian (espn.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems

There are two things we can confirm after week 14 of the 2012 NFL Season.

1. Adrian Peterson is a man.
2. Fantasy football might be the most unfair game ever conceived.

At this point we should all be entering fantasy playoffs if we aren't there already. The week or two prior to playoffs are almost just as important because in the fickle world of Fantasy Football, most of us are hovering a couple of games over .500 and looking to win out to clinch a spot in the tournament. With so many ponies running down a narrow track, there's going to be bumps, stumbles, and falls down the stretch, but where fantasy football really kicks you in the groin is the monster individual game. To continue my half-hearted horse racing analogy, this would be like there are 2 horses in a pack looking to show, and just when both of them are lined up - nose to nose, hoof to hoof - one of the jockeys hits the other horse in the head with an oversized cartoon mallet - complete with tweety birds - and then straps rocket boosters to his horse and is 10 lengths ahead before you can even react.

See, not the greatest analogy.

Basically that's what happened to teams facing  Adrian Peterson or Seattle defense.

Let's start with Peterson. His performance. That shouldn't be all that surprising as his past 4 games he's rushed for 171, 108, 210, and 154 with 4 TDs. Even if you want to say, it was against the Bears, I'm still not all that shocked. What is continuing to amaze me is that Peterson is doing this coming off of ACL surgery. And not just coming off ACL surgery, but coming back early. As a running back. And he's crushing fantasy leagues everywhere. The much questioned fantasy pick early in the year has now become a bargain. Some one took him with the 10th pick of the 1st Round in my draft and people were iffy about it. Now, he's laughing his way to dead last in our league (well, that's not Adrian's fault).

There has been a lot of oooh's and ahhh's about AD's performance this year, and although the award doesn't have a lot of clout, there is no doubt in my mind he should win Comeback Player of the Year. Look, we're all happy Peyton Manning is back, and looking reasonably like Peyton Manning. Sure he had some doubts, just like Peterson, but the question surrounding Manning was more of whether his nerves would regenerate properly to give his arm the proper strength and if his neck would hold up. If his nerves regenerated fine, then he'd be fine. Multiple doctors gave him clearance to play. It was just a matter of getting back into action.

Peterson said he'd be ready to go Week 1 and people just said he was being optimistic. To this day, doctors still aren't quite sure how he got healthy so fast, and I'm sure other athletes that have had this operation wonder how he is running as hard and as well as he is without holding back. If anything it appears overcoming this injury has strengthened him mentally. He put up 29 fantasy points when his owners needed him. Not that he hadn't all ready done it, but he more than justified their pre-season faith in AD.

Update: Thought this column posted today on Grantland was relevant. 

While it's a major bummer to go up against Peterson, at least you had hopes of him being contained. I'm sure little time was wasted worrying about the Seattle Seahawks defense. Sure they were at home facing the Cardinals (who after their 4-0 start have quickly morphed into one of the worst teams in a long time - they're so bad I'm openly wondering whether or not Larry Fitzgerald is vastly overrated) and Yahoo! had them projected at 11.62 points. A fair amount, sure, but seemed to be more of a product of the match-up than anything. This defense has only put up double digit fantasy points once in the past 6 weeks.

So when they left the Cardinals pie faced into the grass at CenturyLink Field they took 41 fantasy points with them. 41! That made Seattle DEF the highest scoring "player" in all of week 14. This was an absolute death blow. Anyone with this defense should have been well on their way to winning the week. They scored 2 TDs with 8 turn overs and 3 sacks to complete their shut out of the Red Birds. To work all this way and be kept out of the playoffs thanks to a defense with two soon to be suspended players on it is just unfair. Then again, disappointment and injustice is all part of the fantasy football game.

Let's see who will break some opponents' hearts in playoff football...

Former Heisman winner Mark Ingram isn't worth your money. (sportsnola.com)

Kenny Britt, WR - TEN (49% owned) NYJ

A lot of people have been waiting on Britt to find his form this season after multiple knee surgeries. His 143 yard performance against a hapless Indy defense helped raise some eyebrows, and Britt seems to be clicking with Jake Locker nabbing 2 TDs in his last 3 games. They'll play the Jets on Monday night, and will be a good homerun threat to close out the week.

Montell Owens, RB - JAX (23%) @MIA

M-O, M-O, M-O, M-OOOOOOOO, M-O, M-OOOO. Sounded better when it was TO for Terrell Owens, but he did have the 2nd best individual performance by a Jags running back this year. Miami defense is no joke, but there is room to get some points if Chad Henne can get the pass game working. It's a big if, but if you need an RB (at least an RB out of one's I haven't already talked about) Owens looks to be a valuable add.

DuJuan Harris, RB - GB (0%) @CHI

It has been a troubling season for Green Bay. Their offense just isn't that strong, and it's mainly a result of injuries to the offensive line and wide receivers. Randall Cobb can only do so much. The lack of run game hasn't helped ease the pain of Aaron Rodgers. Harris was respectable in that he scored a TD, but the RB's in Packerland have been a rotating door and Mike McCarthy appears to have no patience to make things work. Harris is a speculative add with the potential to score in Chi-town.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Mark Ingram, RB - NO (28%) TB

Even when Ingram is given the role of primary back, he can't out fantasy Darren Sproles. He did average 5.2 yards per carry against the Giants last week, but he did not find the end zone. It's hard to tell what the Saints have with Ingram or why he was drafted by them. They don't need or use a conventional running back and never have with Drew Brees' offense. I'm not willing to give up on the former Heisman winner, but he's a no go for fantasy owners.

THE 1%

Dwayne Harris, WR - DAL (0%) PIT

You probably heard the loud groan of Dez Bryant owners' after it was revealed Dez broke/injured a finger in the closing minutes of the Cowboys Bengals game (a couple plays before his 27 yard TD catch). It's being reported that Dez is giving it a go on Sunday as the Cowboys look to make it to the playoffs. While Dez has been one of the best fantasy receivers over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to trust a wide receiver with a broken finger. The risk of ineffectiveness or getting pulled from the game are high, especially against a stout pass defense like Pittsburgh. While people may be running to go get Kevin Ogletree again, I think Harris is a better pick. Harris has been more consistent and garnered more targets recently than Ogletree. We've seen what (little) Ogletree is capable of, so it would make sense for hot seated head coach Jason Garrett to let the second year man from East Carolina have a go.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 14

Andy Reid's squad is crumbling around him. (sports.yahoo.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

When Eagles' owner/CEO Jeffrey Lurie said at training camp that another 8-8 year wouldn't be acceptable for Andy Reid and his regime in Philadelphia, he could have never guessed those words would echo so much through the entire season. Those words have made tangible what was once just a whimsical dream of some ill-informed 94WIP caller; the call to fire Andy Reid.

Perhaps Lurie did not think of the implications of making such a statement at the time. Maybe he was optimistic that this Eagles team would finally be the one that gets that Super Bowl crown. A year removed from Vince Young's "Dream Team" nonsense and with a full training camp, they could focus on winning football games. But Lurie, who is more of a behind the scenes owner, let's his football people handle the football stuff, and will generally only address the media at the beginning and end of each season, doesn't seem like the kind of person to say anything off the cuff. When he put his long-time friend in the cross-hairs like that, he meant it, and I wouldn't be surprised if he shared those comments privately with Reid before giving the media and fans the only soundbite they'd need for this season.

Then again, he didn't exactly levy a death sentence to Big Red:

"Again, I am not going to make blanket statements. I really wanted to try to explain to you that 8-8 was unacceptable. Yeah, I guess if two thirds of the team is not playing [then] there are always exceptions. That was a really unacceptable outcome. I just want to reiterate that." - Jeffrey Lurie, August 30, 2012

While that hangs over the dreadful Eagles season, what has resulted, beyond the win-loss record is a complete mess of a team. At any point during the season, blame can be placed on virtually anyone who cashes a check from the Philadelphia Eagles. Early on, it was Reid's fault, then it was Michael Vick's fault, then Juan Castillo the Eagles defense couldn't stop anyone, injuries were mounting, draft picks weren't performing, and now the team is in complete disarray. Not only has Reid's squad failed to live up to expectations for the second straight year, they are going out like the Hindenburg.

This season hasn't just been bad, it's been a systemic failure. Across the board, in every facet of football things have gone wrong, and there is no "One" that will save this team.

The reason Lurie should follow through and relieve Reid of his coaching duties at the end of the season has nothing to do with his record, but more to do with the fact that Reid lorded over every aspect of this football team. He wanted and was placed in a position to have final say on personnel moves and after Joe Banner left last season, had full say on money being handed out in contracts. The system Reid built has collapsed around him.

As we continue towards the end of the season, it's almost been comical the moves that Reid has made to attempt to right the ship or find a quick fix to this ailing team.

Firing Juan Castillo has clearly backfired. The offensive line coach turned defensive coordinator did fairly well considering how ridiculous the first half of this sentence sounds. Reid elected to put his friend in that position, and when the team couldn't stop anyone on defense early in the season, Castillo was the first to go. Since then, under interim coach Todd Bowles, the defense has actually played much worse.

Next, Reid released Jason Babin, who led the Eagles in sacks last year and was a two time Pro Bowl selection. This wasn't terribly shocking as Babin has not been effective at all this year. Plus, removing him from the roster opened up playing time for Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry to see what they could offer the future of the franchise. Babin was also on the way out due to his paycheck and that Reid had finally conceited that the Wide-9 technique that Babin flourishes in (because all you do is rush the QB; run defense is overrated, bro) will also be going bye-bye.

This displeased d-line coach Jim Washburn who was a fan of Babin's and brought in by Reid to implement the Wide-9. Washburn was let go yesterday.

It has been complete chaos. A season filled with bad moves, and dealing with the results of years of mismanagement.

Sprinkle in significant injuries to Jason Peters, Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Todd Herremans, Jason Kelce, and Danny Watkins (meh, but he was a starting O-lineman) - and it's just one big pot of disaster soup.

Normally, this would lead to the inevitable downfall of any NFL head coach. But Andy, in an evil genius sort of way, has turned things into such a clusterfuck and has driven his bus over more people than a blind guy during an elementary school fire drill that with so much collateral damage and rubble to sift through, who can you really blame? Well, the answer is Reid, stupid, but things are in such disarray, if Reid's close friend Jeffrey Lurie can't see the forest for the trees and pin point that Reid was the crux for all of this, then it's not completely crazy that Lurie would let Reid clean house, accept a diminished GM role, which would go to Howie Roseman, and this season would be such a mess that Reid gets a mulligan.

I think that would be a less than likely scenario, but it isn't out of the question.

It would be a failure to not mention that before the season started, Reid endured the death of his son Garrett.  This is not an excuse for a season that's resulted after years of decisions, but still it is something that must weigh heavily on Reid. Garrett was trying to rehabilitate himself and overcome his drug addiction, but ultimately the drugs won out. Reid, Lurie, Roseman and the entire organization handled the situation extremely professionally. So much that this aspect of the season has largely been swept under the rug. Reid nor media nor fans want Garrett to serve as an excuse, but the impact of something like this can galvanize a team or distract it.This isn't the reason for how this season has went, but it is a part.

The thing Eagles fans have to acknowledge that Reid is a well above average NFL head coach. He's gotten a little too much power, and he's gone down a similar path to tarnish his reputation like his mentor Mike Holmgren has, but if Reid is fired and wants to coach next year, a team will hire him.

Whoever is coaching the Eagles next year, it will be a complete overhaul. Virtually a new team. I can't imagine any coach other than Reid keeping his job, and thanks to words written in contracts players like Vick, Nnamdi Asomugha, Trent Cole, along with the other free agents and low hanging fruit on the roster.

Oh, the humanity, indeed.

Playoffs are approaching; if not here already, so let's see if there are some players to save your sinking ship.

Home or away, Russell Wilson has shown he can get you fantasy points. (usatoday.com)

Russell Wilson, QB - SEA (23% owned) ARI

Wilson hasn't been a FAABulous selection yet. Can't believe it. Well, I can because he used to be an average at home, terrible on the road QB. Well, now he's the 37th ranked player in Yahoo! FF and his last two road games at Miami and at Chicago he's put up 20.76 and 26.82 points respectively. Better yet, he gets the Cardinals in Seattle this week. If you're looking for a QB, he's an easy add.

Vick Ballard, RB - IND (37%) TEN

The less than news worthy battle for running back supremacy, Ballard appears to be preferred over Donald Brown. It's always hit or miss whether Ballard will score, but you have to like being able to tie yourself to the Andrew Luck wagon. Two of the last three games are against Houston, but by Week 14, the Texans could be in cruise control.


Tony Scheffler, TE - DET (1%) @GB

FAABulous favorite Ryan Broyles broke his leg and is out for the year. Shame, especially after his Wes Welker comps started flying around. Former FAABulous un-favorite Titus Young is ruining his life somewhere, and it'll be hard to expect much out of new acquisition Mike Thomas. In spite of Brandon Pettigrew being ahead of Scheffler in the pecking order, his sure hands have made him a viable target for Matthew Stafford.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Greg McElroy, QB - NYJ (0%) @JAX

Come on, cuz. Good to see Mark Sanchez finally get benched during what was the worst game of the year, but the guy is on the hook for $8.5M next year. He's getting the gig back over the 'Bama alum.

THE 1%

James Casey, RB - HOU (1%) @NE

Looking ahead to Texans in chill mode, Casey is a player that always seems to be able to get a touchdown when he plays. He has 3 TDs this year in extremely limited play, and while he is more valuable as a TE than a RB, he could come into play during the playoff weeks if you need a phantom TD.