Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Friday, January 4, 2013

FAABulous: Year in Review

It's been a homerun of a fantasy season for Alfred Morris. (pnj.com)
It has been quite a year of football. Rather chaotic. Filled with monumental comebacks from Hall of Fame players, rookie sensations everywhere, records broken and nearly broken, and the usual on and off the field controversies. Reffed by replacement officials and a scandal that turned nothing into a big something.

While some of that stuff rents space in areas zoned for fantasy football, after a nearly full season of looking back on my first go around writing FAABulous - which wholly resides in fantasy - I can say it has been a fun experience. Writing about fantasy football week after week is not only challenging, but enjoyable because I truly followed the game closer than I ever have before. The nature of FAABulous was to shed light on some lower % owned players, so in doing such I had to dig a little deeper when I watched live games pay more attention to players during SportCenter or other highlight shows.

The fun of doing something like this is you get to make your observations, take calculated shots on certain players, and then see how things play out. Of course the glory of having written down these thoughts lets you go back and judge your guesses.

Overall, I was pretty happy with how things played out. I had some nice hits and some so-so misses. It was difficult to say if I completely whiffed on most of my calls as I feel a good amount of players I suggested were productive at some point. Obviously there were some cream of the crop picks and some I really wish I could take back.

If there's one thing I wish I could have done more of/ been better at is being proactive. Most of my picks were reactive to a previous game or an injury situation. This is mainly due to not having enough time or spending the energy out of my normal day to look that far ahead and really get involved with the numbers and match-ups in a way where any kind of advice like that would bear any fruits.

I'm not afraid to admit mistakes and take heat for them. At the same time, here is a horn, which I own, that I will blow into.

When analyzing some of my prouder and not so proud moments and selecting a couple of each I tried to gauge when my picks had the most impact. Obviously, in certain ways, the end of the season didn't have as much as impact as compared to a Week 2 pick. Also, when that pick coincided with a hot streak. If a player was on fire for 3 weeks, then faded off, then I should get credit for that as opposed to picking a player 2 games after he's had a big game. So all of these factors played into what I thought to be my hits and misses of the year. I've listed the player name, the week in which the player was mentioned and at what percentage that player was owned when I mentioned him.

Also, I get no bonus points for saying go grab Bryce Brown or Ronnie Hillman Knowshon Moreno. That's clown advice, bro.

So, here's the wrap-up to FAABulous 2012. Enjoy!

I'M A GOLDEN GOD STARING DOWN AT YOU FROM MT. PIOUS

James Jones Week 5 - (34% owned)
Jones is my big win of the year. I've always been a Jones fan due to his ability to be frequently located in the end zone by Aaron Rodgers, but due to varying and frequent injuries to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, Jones got to see what it's like to be a top option for one of the league's best quarterbacks. After Week 5, Jones went on to catch 9 TD's including a 3 TD output in Week 15. His 14 TDs led all wide receivers, and with Jennings on his way out of town, expect Jones to continue his TD scoring ways in 2013. I'd put him as a solid WR2 option.

Brandon Myers Week 3 - (1%)
One of my first THE 1% picks ended up paying some of the most dividend. With the tight end position being reinvented in the NFL, Myers took the ball and ran with it ... for 806 yards and 4 TD. He finished the season ranked 6th in Football Outsider's ranks ahead of such dignitaries as Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and Antonio Gates. Some shaky QB play affected Myers' production near the end of the season, but you can't argue with the return you got.

Colin Kaepernick - Week 11 (1%)
This pick doesn't fall under the No Shit category because Kaepernick wasn't supposed to keep the job. Alex Smith was coming off one of his best games as a pro, got clipped in the back of his noggin and it was expected he'd step right back in after Kaepernick started against the Bears defense that was, at the time, only playing as well as any defense ever. A 243 yard 2 TD performance ended Smith's 49ers QB experience.

David Wilson/Andre Brown - Week 13/Week 3 (15%/15%)
This was a part an injury play, but at the same time - they were both owned at such low amounts when they were respectively back-ups to Ahmad Bradshaw that it was almost criminal. From Week 7-10 Brown scored at TD a game, and when he was injured, Wilson finished the season with flair putting two scores on the board in Week 14 and added one in the fantasy playoffs Week 16. All-in-all Bradshaw's "back-ups" accounted for 14 total TD (1 was a kick return).

T.Y. Hilton - Week 10 (8%)
Hilton finished his rookie season with 7 TDs (5 came after Week 10) and became Andrew Luck's big play threat. What else would you expect out of one of the last picks in the 3rd round in the year of the rookies?

Russell Wilson - Week 14 (23%)
I was late to the show by a couple weeks touting Wilson, but he had my attention. By the end of the year people were just outwardly ignoring him. The guy is good, and he should have helped many a teams win a playoff game or two.

WHAT DO YOU WANT FROM ME? I DO THIS FOR FREE!

Alfred Morris - Week 2 (5%)
For all the good things I did this year, missing on Morris was such a misstep that it almost wiped out any positives from the year. I noted that this was the first line in the sand moment of the fantasy season, and I was on the wrong end. Morris - who still has an outside shot at Rookie of the Year - would have been a phenom in any other season that didn't include his option mate RGIII, Luck, and Wilson. If ROY was based on pound for pound value, this 6th round pick out of Florida Atlantic would surely beat out those pretty boy lottery picks. Alf is a top 15 back heading into next season, and finished with 1,613 yards and 13 TD, which I'm assuming is a rookie record for a Washington RB.

Danario Alexander - Week 11 (5%)
I felt a lot worse about this one until DX put up a goose egg in Week 15. He does emerge as the second best nickname in the NFL of 2012 though.

Greg Zuerlein - Week 5 (17%)
#1 best new nickname goes to Greg the Leg or Young GZ. This one hurt. I saw this beastmode kicker launching 50 yard field goals like they were PAT's and got all antsy in my pantsy. Another 6th round pick could only carry the rookie mojo so far. Sure he missed some long ... long field goals, but the Rams inconsistency on offense didn't put him in a good place to score points. After Week 5, he never surpassed double digit points and scored under 3 points on four separate occasions. The best kicker in fantasy, he was not.

Davone Bess - Week 6 (32%)
After Week 6, he had 1 TD, averaged 57 YPG, and missed the last 3 weeks due to injury. My point was that he'd be better than Brian Hartline, which wasn't far from untrue (0 TD and averaged 56.9 YPG), but Bess was a no show.

Titus Young, Sr. - Week 8 (26%)
The world learned in 2012 what happens when you put any eggs in Titus Young, Sr.'s basket.

Ben Tate - Week 11 (39%)
Of course that "rest period" everyone expected the Texans to have never came. They skidded like a streak down a pair of tighty whities to close out the season and could conceivably lose to Cincinnati. That lack cruising to the #1 seed hurt Tate's playing time as well as his inability to stay healthy. From Week 11 on, Tate's game high number of carries was 8 and he never scored a touchdown.

RETURN OF FANTASY FUNKHOUSER
So that's it for fantasy football season. It's been fun, and actually drove a lot of traffic to the site, so I'll be sure to bring it back next year.

Don't fret through, my fantasy baseball column Fantasy Funkhouser will be back in full affect in 2013. I will try to write more and even give a shot at rankings and such. Should be a disaster. Looking forward to it.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 16

Bad weather? Chicago defense? Neither of these should have stopped you from playing James Jones. (nbcsports.msnbc.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

It's the most wonderful time of the year. Well, unless you were facing Russell Wilson or opted to play the Ravens' defense over those hapless Arizona Cardinals.

There are no right answers in the last couple of weeks of the fantasy football season. It seems like there are more pitfalls and traps on the way to that championship than on a course in Mario Kart. And that perception is, in fact reality. Match-up plays and hot streaks are all well and good in Week 4, but when the season is on the line, and you're looking at a match-up between one of your proven studs and a riskier pick - that can be a recipe for disaster.

Waffling on starting certain players is the norm for fantasy sports; especially football. It's why every sports site on the planet has rankings, projected stats, start 'em/sit 'em advice, etc. People have a need to know who to start.

Where these playoff weeks come into picture is that after a long season, you are at max capacity for information on these teams and players. Virtually everyone on your roster has either carried you to victory in some weeks and subsequently no-showed in others. Teams have been good, bad, and everything in between. Combine that with the added pressure of the playoffs, well it's easy for your heard to swirl.

The luckiest of us didn't have too many tough choices. You start Tom Brady, you play Adrian Peterson, or you sit Robert Griffin III. Of course those aren't the choices that get us burned. Those choices are around the WR3 spot or the TE spot, or if we're playing matchmaker with Kickers and D/ST.

In these cases, I always say stick to your guns. Clear your mind, and as you meditate to approach nirvana - in that moment - you select your line-up. Trying to reduce a season's worth of Chris Johnson stats to see if he's a good play this week only to have him be outscored by Danny Woodhead would make you crazy enough, let alone be a huge waste of your time.

It may seem short sighted to go with the "live by the sword, die by the sword" strategy at this point of the year, but you can ask everyone that started Josh Freeman against a horrible New Orleans pass defense over, well, basically anyone - how they feel.

Perhaps there is no better example of over thinking leading to the collapse of a championship run than James Jones. A FAABulous favorite, Jones has stepped up for the Packers all year and he continued that pattern last week nabbing 3 touchdowns and leading all WR in scoring.

But that sounds great, right? Right, it does.

But thanks to some over analyzing and nerves, the current leading touchdown receiver in the NFL was only started in 32% of leagues. How can this be? A guy with 9 TDs going into the game, hardly started in any leagues?

Well, here's the anti-Jones argument. He was facing the Chicago Bears defense in Chicago. The weather was not great. Also, with Jordy Nelson out, Jones could count on some more attention being thrown his way. Furthermore, as a player, Jones had only put up one double digit performance (10 points) in his previous 4 games. Continually, with only 51 receptions on the year, you're basically banking on Jones hauling in a score to be productive. In conclusion, I'll start Sidney Rice over him.

Now, there certainly were reasons to be hesitant in this one-time match-up, but in a standard Yahoo! league with three wide receiver spots, Jones should have been an automatic based on his work all season.

Taking a flier on a Justin Blackmon, Lance Moore, or even T.Y. Hilton type player left you on the short end of the stick.

There's not much roster moving needed for Week 16. You have your squad, and if you're still playing then you should be in good shape. But there are some positions to be weary of (like RGIII's injury and the fact that Terrelle Pryor is now a starting quarterback in the NFL). So I'll make some mentions of deeper adds and match-up plays for kickers and D/ST you should be on the look out for to close out the 2012 season. Same rules apply, though - owned in less that 50% of Yahoo! FFL.

It took until Week 16, but time to shine the FAABulous spotlight on some defense. (newstimes.com)
QB's - Here are some QB picks in case your starter is dinged up or has been shaky.

Guys I'm talking about: RGIII (injury), Matthew Stafford (ATL), Andy Dalton (@PIT), Josh Freeman (STL)

Russell Wilson, SEA (35% owned) SF

We are still doing this? At this point I'd add Wilson so your opponent can't get him.

Sam Bradford, STL (22%) @TB

Bradford has been a top 10 QB over the past 4 weeks. Put up more points than Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning. It would be ideal to have him in a dome, but no one has given up more fantasy points to opposing QB's than the Bucs.

Jake Locker, TEN (17%) @GB

The move for Locker is for a cheap, high floor guy. The weather in Titletown forecasts as sunny, but frigid. Not great passing weather. But for Locker he doesn't turn the ball over, and all he needs is a passing TD to go with his rushing yardage and you have a solid 14 points.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Joe Webb, MIN (0%) @HOU

Here's a picture. Vikings down 30 points, Houston clinched home field, and with their 3rd stringers, here comes Joe Webb. Garbage time can be a beautiful thing.

TE's - There have been a lot of up and down TE's this year. If you have a fringe guy or someone that's been struggling lately, you have to go get someone that will put up points.

Guys I'm talking about: Brandon Myers, Kyle Rudolph, Antonio Gates (bad QB), Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek (no shows)

Dennis Pitta, BAL (5%) NYG

Speaking of ups and downs, Pitta looked like a Pro Bowler, then disappeared for the last 8-9 weeks. But he appears to be back on Joe Flacco's limited radar. Take a shot while he's still gravitationally pulling passes to his body.

Lance Kendricks, STL (1%) @TB

What applies to Bradford applies to Kendricks. Tampa has given up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends this season. With the Bucs tough run defense, another 50+ attempt day for Bradford isn't out of the question. Opportunities abound.

Dallas Clark, TB (25%) STL

Clark hasn't been very productive. Between Doug Martin being an attractive check down option and the big play offense of the Bucs, Clark has been a lost man. The pass attempts will need to be at a high number for Clark to get receptions, but a TD isn't out of the question.

Anthony Fasano, MIA (5%) BUF

Two straight weeks have meant two straight TD's for Fasano. Are him and Ryan Tannehill beginning to click, or is it just a coincidence? Against an average Buffalo secondary, it might be worth trying to find out.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Benjamin Watson, CLE (4%) @DEN

I mentioned the Bucs were good for 6th most points allowed to TE's, well Denver is numero uno. Number 1.  The TE opposing that team is Mr. Watson. If anyone can come out of nowhere and nab you a high point total or leave you with a goose egg it's Watson.

FOR ALL YOU STREAMERS OUT THERE

Made your bread this season by picking and choosing kickers and D/ST. Slow clap for you, potential fantasy champ. You've done it the hard way. Here are a couple streamers I like heading to the final week.

Kickers - 

Olindo Mare, CHI (1%) @ARZ

Robbie Gould was placed on the IR, so Mare is back, and he booted 2 FG's at Green Bay. Like him in a controlled environment in the Midwest desert.

Alex Henery, PHI (17%) WAS

Henery has been sneaky good this year, connecting on 25 of 28 field goal opportunities. But, such is the plight of the place kicker, they can only perform when put in a position to perform. In their previous match-up in Washington, Henery had 8 fantasy points as the Eagles' only scores that game. I'd expect them to put a couple more points on the board, and get Henery some more opportunities.

Phil Dawson, CLE (25%) DEN

It's going to be unseasonably warm in Denver with no rain or snow and a light breeze. At high altitude with that breeze at Dawson's back, he should put up good points as his Browns have trouble putting the ball in the end zone.

Defense/Special Teams - 

Indianapolis (6%) @KC

Indy is pretty self-explanatory going against the Chiefs. For all the chaos that has happened to the Chiefs recently, they were already a defeated team, and I see no reason for them to show up against a Colts team heading to the playoffs.

Carolina (10%) OAK

I already mentioned the Pryor situation, and while the Panthers leaky run defense raises some eyebrows against the Raiders, overall they should be fine.

St. Louis (31%) @TB

Backed by two Janoris Jenkins TD's in Week 12, the Rams have actually been the 2nd highest producing fantasy defense in the last 4 weeks behind Seattle. They can pressure the QB and have shown the ability to put up double digit fantasy points. Aside from a hiccup last week, depending on what Josh Freeman shows up, the Rams' defense has a high upside in Week 16.


Tuesday, November 20, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 12

Dallas Clark's OT TD capped probably the greatest gambling moment of my life. (Getty)


FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

No one likes to hear about gambling wins. Gambling losses are usually much more pleasurable in a schadenfreude kind of way than how someone hit on their 4 team parlay, but I feel I must jot this particular gambling win down in the annals of history so that I can reflect on this when I'm old and gray. What occurred on Sunday might just be the apex of my gambling life.

Anyone that gambles on sports knows the feeling of sitting on your couch staring at all of the games going on and realizing your 3 team parlay is dead and buried. You have about 20 minutes to mull over whether to double down and try to make your money back in the afternoon games, or just cut your losses.

I was pondering this on Sunday probably the same time my younger brother was placing bets for the afternoon games.

We've both gambled on football for a bit. I'm less intense about it than he is. I'll use www.sportsbook.ag, while he has a bookie. I'll usually bet less money than he does, but we do enjoy it and as disturbing as it sounds, it's a good way to stay in touch. We will text or call Sunday morning to discuss games we like and games we don't. Get another perspective on things and see if we come to an agreement on teasers or parlays that could work out for us.

Most of the time we go our own way, but on Sunday we came to an agreement on a 3 team parlay.

Our bet was as follows:

Eagles/Redskins under 45 points
Packers (-3)
Bucs (+1.5); although I think my brother got them as a pick-em

There's nothing Earth shattering about those picks, but how they came to win is what makes this bet perhaps the gambling apex of our lives.

**I'm sure there are real gamblers out there who spend thousands of dollars a week on bets, have won more money than I'll ever see and so on and so forth, but this is for me and my casual betting self. 
The bad news is, that it's never a good thing to realize the moment you hit your apex in anything. By defnition it's all down hill from here. The good news is, with gambling, you can never be exactly sure. The best gambling moment of your life will always be in hindsight, less you win Powerball and collect a couple hundred million dollars. I can sit here right now, and say, yes, that's probably my gambling apex, but I have no idea. There could be a 5 team teaser in my future or...even who knows what kind of gambling options will even be available 10 years from now? This may be a drop in the bucket...at least that's what I have to tell myself to continue gambling and having fun doing it.

That does not apply for your sexual apex. If you're just a regular guy, then I'm pretty sure most of us know exactly when our sexual apex hit. A moment where, yes, it may not get better than this. Like, if you somehow find yourself in bed with Mila Kunis, it's probably time to jump off a high building (John Mayer need not take note of this).

For some the sexual apex is more obscure, or in reality not much of an apex, but a high note. A blip on the fooling around radar. For others it's a thunderous body slam that rocks your world forever. A friend told me that he knows a guy that knows a guy that took a certain famous actresses virginity while they were in high school. They went to prom together and there's photographic evidence of that. Whether they went all the way, well, I'm not cracking open an investigation. But if you're that guy and you got it on with this B-list actress, then where do you go from there? It's not like you're going to meet Kate Upton at the supermarket. For the rest of your life, that will be - without a doubt - your sexual calling card.

Dates may not seem as sweet, the allure of a woman might be limited to the fact that she hasn't starred in movies and TV shows, or let's face it, you may just not nab a better looking chick for the rest of your life.

So the good news is: I've never had sex with an any letter actress and I can still pretend my gambling apex hasn't happened. Go gambling!

Like most things this season, unfortunately, the outcome of the Eagles game was never in doubt. The Skins were on cruise control, and this Eagles offense has put up more than 20 points only 3 times all year. Final score WAS 31 Eagles 6.

However, the other two games looked like lost causes. The Packers had been struggling most of the day against Detroit, and the Bucs were down 10 against the Panthers with 6:00 minutes left.

When Doug Martin fumbled at the goal line with at the end of the 3rd quarter leading to a Panthers TD drive, I'd say things were just about sunk.

On the subsequent Bucs drive, they made a 40 yard field goal courtesy of Connor Barth, making it 21-13 with 4:03 remaining in the game.

My brother and I were both thinking that Cam Newton owed us a pick 6, as he hadn't thrown an INT all game, but that was not in the cards. We did get something positive, which was a punt after the Panthers had run off 3:01 of game time. The legendary Josh Freeman had the ball with 1:02 remaining in the 4th quarter, down 8.

Meanwhile, in Green Bay, the Packers had taken the lead from the Lions. An Aaron Rodgers led 82 yard drive ended in a Randall Cobb floating TD pass (his 7th TD catch of the year, by the way). The next Lions possession was lost on downs and netted -5 yards. The Pack were up with 1:19 left in the 4th quarters.

Back in Tampa, Josh Freeman had no timeouts and needed a TD. What happened next was a 7 play 80 yard TD drive that lasted all of 50 seconds. Freeman's TD pass to Vincent Jackson was a laser between three Carolina defenders.

While Freeman was doing his thing, the Packers had run out the clock the best they could. With 19 seconds left they kicked a field goal to go up 24-20. In real life, this served to force the Lions to have to score a TD, but it was pretty insignificant. How insignificant? I couldn't even find a picture of the field goal kick on ESPN's game wrap. In gambling life, the Packers had covered, and Mason Crosby owed everyone that bet on the Packers as he had missed his previous 2 field goal opportunities that day.

So now, in the span of 4 minutes of NFL game time, our bet had gone from dead to very much alive. The Eagles/Skins and the Packers were in the books. The Bucs had just made an improbably drive, but still needed the two point conversion to force overtime. Freeman dropped back and found his best friend (and now, probably mine) Jackson on a slant for the conversion. We were going to overtime.

The Bucs got the ball first, which under the new rules, doesn't mean a whole lot, unless you score a TD. They were again on their own 20 with 80 yards of grass to go. Huh, some deja vu for Josh.

He had his timeouts now and could utilize Martin as a result. The Panthers were reeling and after some big Martin runs, Freeman was able to ice the cake with a 15 yard pass to Dallas Clark. Touchdown! Bucs win! Our parlay wins!

From losing hope for a day to having a complete turnaround in about 8 minutes of NFL game time with all of those games going on simultaneously was crazy, crazy, crazy. My life gambling bar is set pretty high. I'll probably never put $10,000 on black or be in a high stakes baccarat game like James Bond, so I guess the goal now is to somehow top this one.

I have a feeling I'll fall short a good amount of times.

Onto some adds for Week 12. As playoffs near, injuries have been a big part of the narrative last week as well as this one. However, this week, some bigger fantasy impact players took a tumble. As I've mentioned most times this season, just because a back-up gets the starting job, it's not a reason to jump all over him. There are always good back-up and just back-ups.

I'm a very important person! (philly.com)

Bryce Brown, RB - PHI (5% owned) CAR

Bryce Brown is a rookie running back for Philadelphia. Something else you may know about him is that he was taken in the 7th round. You might even know he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine. Here's something you may not know, coming out of college, he was ranked higher than Trent Richardson and Matt Barkley which makes sense because he was the top recruit in all of high school football his Senior year. So yeah, he was a big deal back in the day. To say he has the pedigree would be an overstatement. He transferred to Kansas St. after a year at Tennessee, then had a multitude of issues that completely derailed his once promising career. With LeSean McCoy getting a concussion late Sunday, there's no reason the Eagles should bring him back Monday against Carolina, and they should probably sit McCoy longer than that.

Brown has yet to prove himself above the high school level and will be running behind a horrible offensive line, but against a weak defense. Monday Night seems like an interesting time for Brown to shine and let people know who he is.

Lance Ball, RB - DEN (2%) @KC

Another injury knocked Willis McGahee out for most likely the rest of the season with an MCL tear. The play here is Ronnie Hillman, but I profiled him back in Week 4 as an add, so for the sake of repeating myself, Lance Ball is the other option in Denver. With Denver's offense the way it is and Philadelphia likely plugging McCoy back as soon as he's healthy, Hillman is the big free agent this week.

Justin Blackmon, WR - JAX (27%) TEN

Blackmon was late arriving to the 2012 rookie bonanza, but he kicked in the door and made sure people took notice. It's interesting what will happen when a wide receiver has a quarterback that actually throws the football and takes chances. Some of Blackmon's biggest plays, including an overturned TD catch due to a holding penalty were jump balls that Chad Henne threw up there for him. Blackmon was a high pick for a reason. He has the physicality that can set him apart from a big possession receiver.

With his titanic 236 yds 1 TD performance, the stock will be high for Blackmon, but that game against the Texans was just screwy. With Henne keeping the job I like Blackmon a bit more moving forward, but I won't expect any repeat performances.

Julian Edelman, WR - NE (4%) @NYJ

The biggest injury of the weekend was Rob Gronkowski breaking his forearm. The TD machine was injured on the 59th point of the game. An extra point. Grand.

There will obviously be a redistribution of looks in New England, but with Aaron Hernandez finally due back from his high ankle sprain, the Pats may not lose much of a step. One player that has come on recently has been Edelman. he had a big week last week and unless the Pats have a lot of confidence in Visanthe Schancoe, any leftovers could be Edelman's for the taking.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Jalon Parmalee, RB - JAX (6%) TEN

We've been here with Rashad Jennings and we're still here looking to replace Maurice Jones-Drew. Parmalee isn't the answer just like Jennings wasn't. Only if you're desperate should you add Parmalee.


THE 1%

Shane Vereen, RB - NE (6%) @NYJ

A better RB option would be Vereen. The offensive benefits are clear, and Bill Belichick has shown that although Stevan Ridley is the starter, there's still room for Vereen.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 11

Week 10 led to a lot of QB injuries and poor performances that probably didn't sink your fantasy team. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

We all know what football is in 2012-2013. There's an increased concern for player safety and specifically concussions. Rules have been put into place, tests have to be administered, and the public consciousness is growing week by week.

The NFL will take credit for this, throwing around how much money they are spending on concussion research, that awareness is high, hell, even in Madden if a player is injured with a concussion he is automatically out for the rest of the game.

While these are all factors in how we are watching this violent sport, and while player safety is the dark cloud on the horizon of the sport of football, the reason all of these procedures are put into place is that while football is the most popular sport in the United States, that also makes it the most lucrative.

There have been plenty of great pieces about how NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has preached player safety out of one side of his mouth, all the while looking to extend the season and schedule, make Thursday through Monday football a reality and keep the NFL money train rolling. Among all of the articles you can find written by a Jason Whitlock or Bill Simmons, the quintessential moment of this money vs. football mess is the New Orleans Saints bounty scandal. In this one story, you get everything from the true violence in football, to the overblown reaction of the NFL, to skirting the facts and Goodell relying on his title as commissioner to serve as a power play to push his agenda.

Well, there's no one that will agree paying players to injure another player is acceptable, there are real questions of what does it really matter, or if the NFL can just fine and suspend players without adequate evidence. The question of does it matter will probably always be up for debate, but the legal system has found that no, you can't just suspend players and serve personal vendettas because you feel like it. There has to be proof. As a result of the fallout of Goodell's hasty actions, his reputation has taken a hit, and his respectability among the players he lords over is at an all-time low. It's something that needs to be addressed moving forward if Goodell is to remain commissioner and a lesson to be learned that the public as well as football players themselves are no dummies. There's unlimited resources available to learn, read up, and formulate an opinion. People won't just fall blindly in line with the NFL because they love the sport or they hear the NFL is funding a lot of brain damage research. Time to focus on improving the reputation of the game, not just making more money from it.

For all the rules and protection the NFL gives its players, especially quarterbacks, that didn't save a lot of them in Week 10. Four starters went down, three to concussions. In order of fantasy relevance, they would be Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith.

The good news, fantasy wise, is that all of the quarterbacks listed are nowhere near elite fantasy players. Roethlisberger is the 13th ranked QB and Vick is 15th. Roethlisberger has been solid, but he's always been a million times more important as a real player than fantasy. As for Vick, well, we know his tale. He hasn't been an explosive fantasy player in 2 years now. His injuries are always a concern, and outside of that 2010 season, he's always been a below average fantasy player minus his rushing numbers, which have been non-existent for those same 2 years. Cutler and Smith are back-up level at best, so odds are your team isn't hurting too badly.

There are some potential fliers to take for each of these players. While Roethlisberger's injury seems to be the most serious, Byron Leftwich carries no fantasy value. But let's take a look at some two back-ups that could bring us some value through the remainder of the season.

Nick Foles has a legitimate shot at the starting job in Philadelphia. (usatoday.com)

Nick Foles, QB - PHI ( 5% owned) @WAS

What makes Foles the top QB to add this week is simple. Above all other back-ups, he has the best chance to keep the job. Michael Vick is out with what coach Andy Reid declared a severe concussion. Vick is already ruled out for Sunday's match-up in Washington, and more likely than not, will not play Monday night the following week versus Carolina. Those are two pretty nice match-ups for the 6'6 6'4 Arizona grad. He's got some offensive weapons around him, but it'll be tough for Foles to avoid getting cracked after every snap as the Eagles have been operating with only one original starting lineman from Week 1. On top of that two of the absolute worst tackles to ever put on an NFL jersey in Demetress Bell and King Dunlap will be blocking for him.

Foles did well in the preseason and despite lacking arm strength has shown an ability to make quick decisions. For his limited time playing on Sunday, he also showed an Eli Manning like propensity to throw into coverage to draw penalties. Not good for fantasy points, but might help him move the ball with more efficiency than Vick was.

Colin Kaepernick, QB - SF (1%) CHI

If I was picking up a QB for one start and one start only, I might side with Kaepernick. Even though he's facing the Bears, Kaepernick has shown a competency playing quarterback, but his most valuable asset is his speed. The Niners have used him in limited packages to showcase his stuff, and while he is passing at a 61.3% completion percentage, he's already run for 3 TDs averaging 7.6 YPC. This won't be a high scoring game with Kaeprenick against the Bears D and Jason Campbell against the Niners D, but there are points to be had.

Jaquizz Rodgers, RB - ATL (37%) ARI

Are the Falcons a fraud of a team? We've seen it with them before. Great regular season team that when the playoffs start and defense and the run game take center stage, the Falcons fade away. Regardless of what success they have in the upcoming playoffs, they are going. It's clear Michael Turner is not viewed as a contributor on offense, and while T.J. Duckett isn't walking through that door, the Falcons need to establish some kind of run game. Rodgers hasn't been carrying the load, but he has been the Falcons most productive RB out of the backfield both rushing and receiving. Unless the Falcons want to repeat errors of postseasons past, they'll need to see what Rodgers can give them. He's an add an hold for the rest of the season.

Ben Tate, RB - HOU (39%) JAX

Houston is in nowhere near the trouble Atlanta is regarding their run game. Houston does look like they'll run away with their division, and that means resting guys like Arian Foster during those final couple of weeks of the season. And if you're Houston and you have Ben Tate, why wouldn't you? Tate has been nursing a hamstring injury the last couple of weeks, but should be back soon. I'd look for his run load to increase in the interim, with the potential to be the top back on the depth chart come Week 16 as Foster rests.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Danario Alexander, WR - SD (5%) @DEN

He had a big game for San Diego and at 6'5 fits the bill for tall Philip Rivers targets, but a lot of Alexander's stats came on an 80 yard TD catch, and he was taking time from the injured Robert Meachem. With Meachem expected back, marginal production can be expected from Alexander moving forward.

THE 1%

Riley Cooper, WR - PHI (0%) @WAS

One of the injuries not covered earlier on was that to Jason Avant, the Eagles sure handed slot receiver. Due to the depth among the Eagles WR core has left Cooper primarily as a special teams ace and 4th WR. Cooper hauled in his 1st TD pass of the season on a rare fade route thrown to him by Vick. If Avant is out, Cooper is a guy Foles has had a lot of reps with and their 2nd string chemistry could pay WR3 dividends.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 10

Doug Martin earned his Ray Rice comparison on Sunday. (deadspin.com)

It's been quite a year for fantasy rookies. Robert Griffin III started the party off right with his highlight reel plays. For the first half of the season his Cam Newton 2.0 impression netted him the top slot in the fantasy rankings and leaving owners with the issue of trying to trade the QB they thought would be leading their fantasy team to glory.

RGIII has started to level out a bit, but he's still as exciting a players as there is to watch. The Redskins aren't nearly as good as they've played, and that's thanks to RGIII.

There are 6 rookies (RGIII, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Andrew Luck, Alfred Morris, and Stevan Ridley) in the top 25 fantasy player ranks going into week 10. Let's look at a couple of guys that made their mark on Sunday.

Andrew Luck had been more of a leader of men than a fantasy focal point. His surprising 5-3 Colts are 2nd in the AFC South and with a quick turnaround Thursday night against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars could be in a prime position to make the playoffs. Well, Luck made his fantasy presence known this past Sunday, throwing for an NFL Rookie Record 433 passing yards in a win over the Miami Dolphins.

The guy is doing all you can ask for on the field. He's making his teammates better and under tough circumstances with first year head coach Chuck Pagano undergoing successful treatments for leukemia being out for most of the season; Luck has taken a young mix of players and made them a formidable team. All you would hear about Luck pre-draft was that he was "pro ready." That's a nice term and all, but seeing him in action you really begin to know what that means. His poise and maturity running an NFL offense is shocking. He's able to recognize blitzes and pass coverage to exploit a team's weakness. There are some QB's that have been in the league a decade that can't do that. Along with his smarts, the physical skills are obviously there. He is extremely accurate, daring, and blends pocket presence with mobility on the level of a Ben Roethlisberger or Luck's most frequent comparison, John Elway. For all the praise that is, frankly, overdue for what Luck has done, his time in the Week 9 spotlight lasted about 40 minutes. Why?

J'adore Doug Martin. 
Because in Oakland, California, Doug Martin was slashing and gashing the Oakland Raiders. The Stockton native and Boise State alum dropped 251 rushing yards and 4 TDs causing his owners to swoon like Peppy Le Pew in one of the greatest fantasy weeks ever. After a less than productive couple of weeks, Martin now has this performance coming off his 214 total yard 2 TD performance two weeks ago in Minnesota.

Martin, at this point, is shaping up to be one of the top fantasy players this season. While I wouldn't rule against selling high on him, if you can get some great pieces in return, outside of him hitting the rookie wall I think Martin will be able to continue his duel threat destruction for the rest of the year. The injury to Carl Nicks didn't show itself against the weak Oakland run defense, but it will at some point. However, out of Martin's remaining games the only tough ones appear to be at Denver Week 13 and at Atlanta the last week of the season. But it's time to play my favorite game of looking ahead to the playoff weeks, and he'll be facing New Orleans and St. Louis. Yummy, yum.

Like Pepe, we're not all successful in love, or fantasy rookies. Let's see some potential plays this week.

T.Y. Hilton has been on the tip of my tongue for weeks. Now it's time to click the + button. (Getty)

T.Y. Hilton, WR - IND (8% owned) @JAX

Makes sense to focus on another rookie or two. So what if they're not in the Top 25 or even 50. Ranks ain't nothing but a number.

Hilton has been a guy that's been mentioned a lot without producing significant fantasy output. Two things have changed recently that have made him much more interesting now than say 3 weeks ago. First is that he's been under the tutelage of Reggie Wayne which is clearly beginning to pay dividend. Hilton has topped 5 receptions for two straight weeks and is becoming an increasingly favorite target of Luck. Second, the player I thought would be Luck's security blanket Colby Fleener has been injured opening up targets for Hilton. I'm not sure how much it would cost to land this Hilton, but it's probably cheaper than a stay at the Paris Hilton.

Joique Bell, RB - DET (19%) @MIN

Another victim of the Doug Martin Fantasy Domination was Mikel Leshoure. He had 3 TD scampers in the red zone and made himself a strong case to be the Lions top back. With Javid Best injured as per usual, undrafted rookie Bell has become a solid weapon out of the backfield for his running and pass catching. Leshoure doesn't have the cleanest health record, and Bell is still getting TDs as a secondary back making him worth a flex play.

Chris Ivory, RB - NO (4%) ATL

Opportunity seems to be the issue for Ivory, as it is most running backs in the Big Easy. With Darren Sproles going down for 4-6 weeks with a broken hand, there was a mad dash for Pierre Thomas, but while Thomas is helpful, he doesn't do what Sproles does. In fact, none of the NOLA back do except for Travaris Cadet, but it appears Cadet's Sproles impersonation isn't going to net him any fantasy love. Ivory is a big, tough runner that can provide a good change of pace for the speedy Saints offense. Thomas is more of a pass catching threat, but Ivory has the ability to outplay Mark Ingram as the grind it out back.

Mike Goodson, RB - OAK (11%) @BAL

We all knew this was coming. The Darren McFadden injury has occurred. And it's a fantasy football doozy. The high ankle sprain is tough to gauge when everything will be fully healed and a player will be ready to go. With McFadden's injury history, I'd say his chances of being productive again this year are minimal. He was barely productive when he was playing averaging barely over 3 yards per carry. Overall, McFadden's performance is good for 29 out of 30 ranked backs via Football Outsider's DVOA ranks.

With that being said, Run DMC's back-up is also out with a high ankle sprain, but this appears to be much less severe than McFadden's. Goodson would be a speculative add in that a.) McFadden is out for a while b.) Goodson is healthy c.) Oakland's run game has been horrible as is and d.) the Raiders don't just pack up their lockers and forfeit the rest of the season. At this point of the year though, if you can add a running back that will get a bulk of the carries for a team, it's worth it.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Golden Tate, WR - SEA (12%) NYJ

Tate hauled in 2 TD passes on Sunday for a less than eye catching 28 yards receiving. He's become a bit of an end zone threat with 5 TDs, but I guess after that miracle Monday Night Fake Refs call against the Packers, he's got some magic on his side. Like most Seattle players not named Marshawn Lynch, home is where the performance is. Tate isn't a play maker, but rather a guy you need to catch TDs to be any kind of factor on fantasy game day.

THE 1%

Rod Streater, WR - OAK (0%) @BAL

As highlighted in the Goodson write up, the Oakland run game has been poor. I don't necessarily envision Goodson or any other back on their roster to change that, so combine that with constantly being behind in games means that Oakland will be throwing a lot. They really already have been throwing the ball judiciously this year. Denarius Moore and Brandon Myers have benefited, but Streater might be looking to make his mark with Darius Heyward-Bey not looking quite right since his concussion earlier this season. Streater needs to become more consistent and establish his role as a possession receiver to become a key part of the Raiders pass game.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 9

Michael Vick was Andy Reid's choice. And while it looked brilliant for a season, it's been a precipitous drop from glory. (AP)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

As I mentioned last week, this week would be declaration week. A time in which teams have shown their true colors and we can safely assess their prospects as well as individual player "realness" in regards to continued performance and ability to produce through the second half of the season. Hot streaks be damned, each player and team has had more than enough time to put up or shut up.

The Eagles, and not just Michael Vick, are falling apart.

On Sunday, the Eagles lost their first game ever in Andy Reid's tenure after a bye week (12-1). Now that record does mean a little something, but ultimately it's more a novelty record than anything. Overreacting to a crushing loss to the only unbeaten team in football is nothing to be up in arms about, but for the first time in Reid's career in Philadelphia, this team truly seems lost. Appropriately the Eagles dawned black jerseys because Sunday might as well have been a funeral.

There have been good teams and bad, teams that needed a little kneading to turn make that dough rise and achieve success, but this Eagles team is one that has no identity or purpose.

A lot of the conversation circles around Reid and Michael Vick. This isn't surprising, but while Vick has amassed and unseemly amount of turnovers this year, he's not the only person to blame. Most of the blame should in fact fall on Reid. Reid has turned his solid success into a Belichick-ian or Shanahanny type reign where all power and personnel decisions go through him. Out of virtually any team the Eagles have ever had in his tenure, this is Reid's vision. He made Vick one of the most dominant QB's in football (not just a flashy runner, but a true QB threat), he extended DeSean Jackson and signed Nnamdi Asomugha to large extensions. His play calling and clock management have always been in question, but his stubbornness to adapt and improve is what is ultimately leading to his downfall.

It isn't a stretch to say that the Andy Reid that coached his first game in 1999 with Doug Pederson is virtually no different from the coach that took the filed Sunday and led a listless team to an underserving 3-4 record (they could have easily been much worse). Sure he has some more gravitas, some wins and NFC titles under his belt, but the strategic and game management side have only grown more tiresome and frustrating. Once Reid was able to successfully take the reigns of this team a couple of years ago, team owner Jeffrey Lurie, who always has supported Reid, let him know that continuing to fail to adapt, to fail to make key subtle personnel decisions (improving draft picks, developing players, not just QB's) would put Reid in the cross-hairs should the Eagles fail to perform again.

Reid has responded by doing more of the same thing. Exposing Vick by having him throw all game long. Neglecting the run game and establishing or at least attempting to keep the opposing team's defense on their heels. This was an Eagles team, under the helm of Vick, two years ago that was one of the most explosive offenses in football. Now, they've been relegated to dinks and dunks. Wide receiver screens and quick slants to Jason Avant. There is a clear realization that either Reid has no confidence in Vick or himself.

This isn't to get Vick off the dunk tank seat. He's very much in line as his lack of decision making ability quickly enabled defenses to expose weaknesses and make life in the pocket for Vick hell. Vick hardly, if ever, audibles at the line to change protections or make decisions based upon what he sees from other teams. Sure, he'll kill a play or make a quick change from time to time, but when it comes to recognizing what the other team intends to do and fully controlling the situation like the Manning brothers or Tom Brady it's clear he is incapable. If another team wanted to constantly blitz their safeties, you don't think that Eli Manning would make them pay?

Vick's increased difficulties are largely on his shoulders. His accuracy has completely dropped off from two years ago, and along with Reid, he should be no longer a member of the Eagles come 72 hours after the final whistle at the Super Bowl where a $15 million roster bonus would kick in.

Reid took this team as far as he could, but it wasn't good enough. The Eagles are still one of the younger teams in football, so a new coach has a lot to work with. They can build around LeSean McCoy and Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, but with a new regime primed to take the stage and no reliable starting QB, it may be a long time coming before the Eagles will again be a threat in the NFC East. (My head coach pick: Jon Gruden)

A couple other declarations:

Andrew Luck and RGIII are as good as advertised - baseball has Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, football has these guys. Worth noting that while RGIII has garnered more headlines, Luck leads RGIII in many of Football Outsider's DVOA ranks.

The Buc$ aren't half bad - aside from the force that Doug Martin has become and a much improved defense under first year head coach Greg Schiano, the Bucs have been my favorite team to bet on all year. They are constantly underrated by Vegas, and have the ability to keep in close games whether it's a defensive battle or a high scoring affair.

Something is happening with Calvin Johnson - somehow people have figured out a way to stop him from destroying everything in his path. Getting at Matthew Stafford helps, but the fact that Johnson has 1 TD to date in spite of increased targets is an anomaly.

How important is a head coach? - The Saints must be saying a lot. While they've always been a suspect defensive team, without Sean Payton, they've become simply a vehicle for Drew Brees to put up stats.

Alfred Morris is starting and good - easily my biggest missed call thus far has been Morris. He's managed to not only start regularly under Mike Shanahan, but perform well enough to earn Terrell Davis comparisons. I even just traded Brady for him in my one fantasy league (RGIII is my starter).

Don't sleep on AJ Green - he's starting to earn more well deserved attention. Fellow draft mate Julio Jones is getting a lot of hype and we all know what Calvin Johnson has failed to live up to. Green is quickly vaulting into the upper echelon of wideouts. Also, Larry Fitzgerald who is long forgotten in Arizona will be opting out of his mega contract. He's too good to waste away there.

Time to declare some money makers in Week 9.

It was hard not to notice Jonathan Dwyer on Sunday for a lot of reasons. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Cecil Shorts, WR - JAX (11%) DET

It's time to open up my favorite file. The Alshon Jeffrey/Josh Gordon "Someone has to Catch Passes" file. With Blaine Gabbert dinged up and no Maurice Jones-Drew someone had to enjoy themselves against the Packers miserable pass defense Shorts was able to continue a solid season hauling in his 3rd TD pass of the season.

Danny Woodhead, RB - NE (38%) BYE

Especially in a PPR league, Woodhead appears to be the kind of dual threat back that can be helpful, you know, when he's not on a bye week. There's plenty of balls to go around in the Pats offense, it's always a question of which 2nd level offensive player for the Pats will be graced with a solid game.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB - PIT (46%) WAS

There are plenty of unhealthy options in Pittsburgh at running back. While Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman got their first couple of shots at the starting job, injuries have cleared a path for Dwyer. When Mendenhall is healthy you can expect him to get a shot at earning his job back, but with injuries mounting in Pittsburgh like they usually do, Dwyer has an opportunity to be a factor in the backfield.  

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Beanie Wells, RB - ARZ (11%) @GB

He's coming back from injury again. Feel free to waste money on him.

THE 1%

Ryan Broyles, WR - DET (7%) @JAX

Typically I like to try to get this done prior to 12 on Tuesdays because around then is when ESPN's Chris Harris drops his pick up list. Now, obviously, we're not in competition, but personally, I like to see who he picks and who I pick in a given week. A bit of a compare and contrast. Well due to the hurricane I got a bit delayed today, so I read Harris' article and his write up on Broyles is better than I could ever do.


Tuesday, October 23, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 8


Pass happy and catch crazy, Vincent Jackson almost had 3 TD's on Sunday. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The NFL Regular Season is coming up on the half way point this week. A moment of silence as we reflect on a season that, as per usual, always feels like it just started. While it's about that time to make some season declarations (Note: idea for next week's column) we can still focus on the overall scope of the league. As mentioned a couple of weeks back, while running backs have been featured more this year than last, there are some guys that still like to throw the ball around. As such, match-ups are certainly there to be exploited, and with those poor match-ups comes the most volatile position in fantasy football, the wide receivers.

Value of wideouts are always minimized simply because any given week any stick-um-less player that runs routes can haul in 2 TD's and lah-dee-dah you're getting 18 points out of a guy projected for 4.50 - right, Randall Cobb?

In Week 7 there were 6 WR in the top 21 in scoring for the week. The first (#2 ranked scorer*) Vincent Jackson was a yard away from finishing #1 overall. Cobb was the third ranked scorer followed by Victor Cruz (who pulled off a 77 yard TD catch in the last minute of the game), the on-fire Jordy Nelson, and then 44-year-old Santana Moss (thanks for extending my career, RGIII), and Andre Roberts (former Lockration pick-up selection). So out of the top 6 scorers at wide receiver their average projected draft position was 88.3. 
*Per Yahoo! FFL the ranks are dictated not by overall points, but factors in that along with position and probably some other values and calculations that I have no idea about.  Jackson was technically the 4th highest scorer, but since he's a WR he was ranked #2. Make sense? Kind of? Well whatever, my point is going to remain the same.
While declaration time may have to wait a week, the group of QB's and RB's are certainly more solidified than they were earlier in the season. Jobs are less likely to be won or lost (and those jobs that are lost do you really want the new hire - John Skelton and Felix Jones, much?). Wide receivers offer the best opportunity for a big swing in production. It just so happens there are some talented receivers available in many leagues that could boom over the next half of the season. Let's focus on them first, then some RBs. Also, as we move along in the season, match-ups become more and more important, so I'll highlight who the player is playing in the upcoming week. 

As we throw our cash in the air, let's see who's hauling it in.


If Chris Givens is as good as he thinks he is, he can be a playmaker rest of the season. (Getty)

Titus Young, Sr., WR - DET (26%) SEA

Young had his best game of the season Monday night against Chicago, and yes, that is saying something. His 6 receptions tied his season high and his 81 yards set his season high. The only negative was he didn't score a TD, but apparently the Lions don't do that anymore. He had the second most targets behind Calvin Johnson, Young's longest reception was 23 yards, so he earned his 81, and Nate Burleson left the game with an injury. With zero run game to speak of and teams somehow figuring out how to negate MegaTron, it looks like after a rough start, Young could fulfill his sleeper status many experts had him pegged for. Although his talent was never in question, just what goes on in his cranium during the game. 

Chris Givens, WR - STL (6%) NE

Speaking of head cases, Givens does fall into this category. He has, what us Arsenal fans like to call Nicklas Bendtner disease. Basically it's unbelievable confidence in yourself and abilities, while things like sight and video and performance tend to work against your delusions. While some one's mouth can get them into trouble, Givens abilities have started to shine through in St. Louis as a deep threat.

Brandon LaFell, WR - CAR (20%) @CHI

While no one bought the Panthers early proclamation by now injured offensive lineman Ryan Kalil that these Panthers were Super Bowl threats, the wheels have really come off for Carolina. After the arbitrary mid-season firing of their GM, the Panthers are 1-5 and seem to be heading nowhere. For all Cam Newton did last year, he's been largely ineffective in this offense. Steve Smith hasn't continued his renaissance of last year, and the Carolina running backs...well they're nothing to tweet about.  One positive out of the narrow loss to Dallas last week was the delayed emergence of LaFell. He appeared to be the perfect counter to the speedy Smith, but with the Carolina offense in such a rut, who knows how or why things weren't clicking properly. His match-up this week is not good at all, but if you look past this week there are some goodies against Washington, Denver, and Tampa.

Andre Brown, RB - NYG (42%) @DAL

There was potential for a Brown breakout after Week 3, but a concussion and Ahmad Bradshaw have cooled that fire a bit. Brown came back to minimal work last week, but should build on that moving forward. Bradshaw is also battling a foot injury, but as we saw last year, that may not be enough to keep him out of a uniform. David Wilson may be more of the future, but for heavy workload, Brown has shown he can do it. 

Rashad Jennings, RB - JAX (27%) @GB

Here we go again. Maurice Jones-Drew lasted all of two plays last week due to some sort of foot injury. He's already been ruled out this week against Green Bay, and odds are it'll be a couple more weeks after that. Foot injuries aren't only tough to diagnose, they're tough to come back from. After all the contract posturing that dogged MJD in training camp, I'd be sure he'll take his time coming back from this. Now, Jennings is a serviceable replacement level back. But with this team, and this offense, I wouldn't want to own any Jacksonville players. If you're desperate for touches, then shoot for Jennings, but again, some players are back-ups for a reason. They just aren't that good.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

LaRod Stevens-Howling (18%) SF  

As mentioned before, we've been down this road. Felix Jones showed us how this usually plays out. In case you're talking yourself into LRS-H simply based on carries let's try to use some facts to dissuade you. 

He is averaging 3 yards per carry. The undersized back plays San Francisco next week, and after that Beanie Wells is supposed to return. The rest of the schedule after that is brutal. I'm not convinced he even still is the primary back with William Powell running well. Last week might have just been going with the hot hand.

He has an up-up-up hill battle to return any kind of fantasy value this year.

THE 1%

Vincent Brown, WR - SD (3%) INJURED

It's not out of the question that when Brown returns from injury around Week 9 that he'll be the best wide receiver the Chargers have. Sure there are issues with that team, but getting reps above Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem shouldn't be impossible to do.  For all that ails Philip Rivers this year, the one thing he continues to do is throw the football. Whether it ends up in the hands of a guy with lightning bolts on his helmet or the other team is completely up in the air, but that suits Brown's game very nicely. Good preemptive strike opportunity here.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 7

Shelling out some cash for Felix Jones is pretty much a requirement. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Any article about adding football players for your fantasy team this week will undoubtedly mention Felix Jones. The Cowboys back-up running back will re-assume a starting role for at least this week as incumbent/budding star DeMarco Murray has succumb to another injury in his young career.

It's another opportunity for Jones to show some consistency among the early flashes that had him pegged as the future star running back in Dallas. Jones was the 22nd pick in a pretty loaded draft, especially when you take a look at the running backs. Jones was the sentimental pick for owner Jerry Jones, who like Felix, is an Arkansas Razorback alumni (I'm told any and all similarities end there). After Jerry was unable to move up to draft Darren McFadden fourth overall, Felix was selected as the third RB in the draft after McFadden and Jonathan Stewart.

The running backs taken after Jones (in order): Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, and Jamaal Charles.

Outside of Rice - who clearly anyone 54 picks earlier probably should have considered - every one of those running backs have had their ups and downs, but outside of Smith, are clearly and definitively better than Jones.

The point of all of this is, yes, Jones hasn't been able to replicate the early explosiveness that highlighted the first 6 games of his career, but he is talented. When a player of DMM's magnitude goes down, there is a common perception to quickly add his back-up. Well, back-ups are back-ups for a reason. They aren't very good. This isn't always the case. Jones is a decent example. He has the talent and ability and plays for a team that should pack a punch on offense. What always bewilders me is when players that are clearly no good become FAAB darlings.

We all go for fliers, and we love to hit that homerun pick, but it rarely happens. More often than not, you get Vick Ballard or the oft-referenced Brandon Jackson from Green Bay several years back. Jackson is still serving 15 years of a 30 year fantasy prison sentence for all the FAAB dollars he stole. It's not his fault he failed fantasy wise. It's ours! Every owner that spent a large amount of money on a player that his own team dictated as a 2nd fiddle.

While running backs always seem to spring out of nowhere, it's important that when these situations come about, we still keep our heads. We don't get caught up on if this second year back-up is the next Arian Foster. Odds are he isn't. And in Jones' case, he'll be right back to the bench when DMM is healthy. Jones is an add for his potential, but know you're getting the same Jones that has been around for several years now.

Time to shop with our heads, not our hearts.

Felix Jones, RB - DAL (23% owned)

People may be chomping at the bit for Jones, but he's only the second most famous Felix this week.



Daryl Richardson, RB - STL (14%)

A funny thing happened last week when Stephen Jackson was declared healthy for the first time all year; he still split carries with Richardson. Richardson has done a good job sharing the load with Jackson, and it is a positive that he still got touches even with Jackson ready to roll. There's rumors that Jackson is on his way out in St. Louis, which makes sense, but as long as he's still on the roster, he's the best RB they have. Richardson will stick around, and clearly Jackson hasn't been the picture of health in his latter years. Richardson is worth a bench spot to see how this rides out.

Sidney Rice, WR - SEA (63%)

I wanted to put Rice as my Penny Saved this week, but I just...couldn't...do it. Rice has shown his talent before, and he's been gaining steam over the past three weeks. While the Seahawks are built around defense, special teams, and running in that order, Russell Wilson has shown himself able to at least get the ball deep on occasion.

Kendall Wright, WR - TEN (38%)

There was a lot of buzz around the young wideout and while he hasn't been a disappointment, necessarily, he hasn't had a big game yet. Part of that might relate to the teams he's faced thus far: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh. Easier times are ahead, starting this week with Buffalo. Wright has 33 receptions on the year, so he's been involved. Some easier match-ups will lead to bigger numbers even with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington around.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Montario Hardesty, RB - CLE (3%) 

Hardesty is the flip side to Felix Jones. People will see Trent Richardson is out, and hustle to pick up the back-up in Cleveland. Hardesty had a decent game last week, but he's never proved himself to be an every down back. If you're looking purely for a guy that will get attempts, then go for him. Other than that, I don't see much fantasy production coming his way. Especially with Brandon Weeden and Josh Gordon beginning an air show with each other.

THE 1%

Tom Crabtree, TE - GB (0%)

Don't look now, but the forever disappointing dynasty of Jermichael Finley in Green Bay may be slowly ending its reign. Tom Crabtree may not ultimately be the man to do it, but with yet another Finley year of inconsistency and dropsies, it's time to seriously start looking at other, more reliable options for Aaron Rodgers. Crabtree is what he is at this point, so maybe he can help with a fluky TD here or there, but let this be a warning sign for Finley owners. Time to make your escape.