Foles on Parade

More thoughts on Nick Foles. (cbssports.com)

Growing up in the burbs of Philadelphia, my life has been nestled in the warmth of Philly sports for as long as I've been alive. They're my passion, but for fantasy football purposes/writing something a lot of people want to read it doesn't make sense to breakdown every fleeting moment or hot topic story that goes on in the City of Brotherly Love. However, I'm going to indulge myself a bit with some Nick Foles thoughts. Thoughts which I've shared the past two weeks so this will be a third.

Trying to understand Foles to this point has been an impossibility. One week he looks to be collapsing under the pressure of a starting quarterback, while the next time he takes the field he's throwing 7 touchdown passes in a game. There really is no way to compute that in your brain. To rectify that this is the same person in both instances. A player with a 7.5 QBR one week and in his next start tallys a 99.1 QBR. Once more and for a final time, my stance on Foles is that he has the ability - through his accuracy, ability to protect the football, and quick decision making - to serve as a league average quarterback in this league, but I'm not sure he has the elite skill level to elevate to a Top 5 QB in the NFL. If he can become one of those 27 TD 4 INT type guys, then that is a huge win for him as a player. 

Clearly, hardly anyone knows what they have in Foles. What he needs to do is prove he can play week in and week out in the NFL. These sporadic performances won't fly, especially when it's against lesser opponents in games that don't matter or don't have a lot of pressure going into them. At that point, the Eagles will have a better idea about how to move forward.

Watching the game yesterday, if it's easy to pick apart a 7 TD performance, you probably can with Foles. The Raiders looked horrible both on the pass rush (give some kudos to the Eagles' o-line) and in the secondary. Two of Foles' TD's came off of Raider players falling down, and LeSean McCoy's TD catch appeared to  be the result of the Raiders not covering him and then not really feeling like tackling him as he scampered 25 yards for another touchdown, but hey, there's still 4 really nice scoring throws Foles made as well as other deep and intermediate routes. Foles has more to prove, but after that disastrous Cowboys performance, he did all he could to get right back in the driver's seat next week against Green Bay.

What the main takeaway from this game should be is a huge boost of support behind Chip Kelly. It's amusing that the most vociferous critics come out after two weeks in which Kelly started an injured Michael Vick and Matt Barkley. Scoring zero touchdowns is never acceptable, but I think Kelly deserved a bit more of a break than he was getting. Trotting those two quarterbacks out there in the condition they were in is basically sabotaging your own team. 

Locally, the build up during the week has been that people have been losing faith in Kelly. Rumors start churning, skeptics get big mouths, and it's an easy argument to win based on the past couple of games, but the video shows that there are opportunities created in this offense. The main priority is making the right decisions when those opportunities show themselves. Foles was able to do that and the team won despite losing time of possession and the Raiders racking up more total yards (the former is part of the plan and the latter is due to the Raiders playing catch-up most of the game).

The main issues moving forward with Kelly are more involved with his in-game coaching/decision making (play calling, replay review, time management, adjustments, etc.) that come along with being a head coach with zero NFL experience and his personnel decisions. His system is effective. It works. It's not tricks or magic, it's about creating mismatches out of a base offense and personnel on the field. Running a hurry up offense with versatile players that can line-up as needed to best expose those advantages his system creates (a must-read at Grantland). 

Ultimately, if Foles can become more consistent then he can play in the NFL. The Eagles won't have a top 10 pick in this year's draft and with so many holes on this team maybe going for a mid-range quarterback in the draft isn't necessary. Foles can function for the time being as the other weaker areas of the team are addressed. But if a quarterback the Eagles really want does fall to them in the upcoming draft, I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled the trigger. Like throwing passes, making a move for a franchise quarterback is best made when the play develops as it should and not forced under pressure.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 7

Nick Foles gets the Philly QB controversy conversation in full swing. (espn.go.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The major injuries that many fantasy owners seemingly avoided most of the year came crashing down on the shores of Fantasy Island over the past week. Most notably Julio Jones' injury ended his season, and more long-term injuries to Randall Cobb, David Wilson finally being diagnosed, Danny Amendola, Cecil Shorts, DeMarco Murray, and Michael Vick all led to major waiver moves being needed in Week 7.

While not the most significant, but the most intriguing, Michael Vick's hamstring injury opened the door for Nick Foles last week in Tampa and Foles took his first start of the season and ignited a QB controversy in Philadelphia. After filling in admirably after Vick limped off in New York two weeks ago, Foles started against Tampa Bay and threw for 3 TDs and ran for 1 more while amassing 296 passing yards, no turnovers, and a 89.8 QBR. 

We are all aware of Vick's ability and his positives and negatives, so let's take a look at Foles to see if he truly deserves to take Vick's job.

There's no denying that Foles has delivered some great performances so far under new Eagles' head coach Chip Kelly in 2013. Aside from one play for an injured Vick against San Diego and garbage time in Denver, Foles has show two key attributes that Vick has not: passing accuracy and protecting the football.

2013 REGULAR SEASON GAME LOG			PASSING										RUSHING
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	AVG	LNG	TD	INT	QBR	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
Sun 10/6	@	W 36-21	16	25	197	64	7.88	28	2	0	84.6	114.9	3	1	0.3	3	0
	NYG
Sun 10/13	@	W 31-20	22	31	296	71	9.55	47	3	0	89.8	133.3	3	2	0.7	4	1
	TB
Total			38	56	493	67.5	8.75	47	5	0	87.2	124.1	6	3	0.5	4	1

*stats courtesy of ESPN.com

In over 56 passes he hasn't thrown an interception yet or lost the football. Despite his noted lack of running ability, his quick decision making has allowed him to thrive without the threat of breaking off a big run. 

As we dig a little deeper into Foles' 2013 we see he is clearly excelling in two key areas: the red zone and 3rd down. One additional item to Foles' red zone stats, Chip Kelly said that Foles' success compared to Vick's is that Kelly did a better job making play calls in the red zone more recently with Foles than Vick. Seems a little like falling on the sword, but something to keep in mind.

Looking at the third down numbers, Foles has remained consistent. He's only taken one sack on third down, and his completion percentage is at 80%. 

BY DOWN	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	AVG	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
DOWN = 1 OVERALL	16	25	230	64	9.2	44	3	0	0	133.3	4	1	0.3	4	1
DOWN = 2 OVERALL	13	21	183	61.9	8.71	47	2	0	1	121.7	2	2	1	3	0
DOWN = 3 OVERALL	12	15	129	80	8.6	37	1	0	1	124.7	0	0	0	0	0

Sure, on 3rd and long defenses tend to drop back and protect the first down marker, but in 3rd down and 9+ yards to go Foles has an average of 7 yards per pass and a 75% completion rate, which compared to Vick's 25% completion rate and lone 45 yard run in similar scenarios purports to greater success for Foles in this key area.

Chip Kelly has repeated over and over again that he doesn't need a mobile quarterback for a team in  his system to succeed. Over the past couple of weeks, with Vick and Foles he's shown that to be true. Vick did have 79 yards rushing before he left the Giants game, but when Foles came in and was able to affectively throw the ball, it only made Vick's rushing yards seem like a byproduct of his inability to make the proper reads and quick decisions in this offense. Two things that have plagued Vick his entire playing career.

There is always another side to the story, so two of the biggest negatives you can say about Foles is that he's done this against an 0-6 Giants team and a Tampa Bay team that is on the verge of either a meltdown or a MRSA pandemic. Even if he plays well on Sunday, doubts will linger as Dallas has just as bad a pass defense. He hasn't had his leap game yet. Although keep in mind winning is winning, so an Eagles victory and solid Foles performance will undoubtedly push Vick to the bench.

The second negative is that Foles had his shot to impress last year under then head coach Andy Reid. Foles started 7 games that year, and even though the team was crumbling around Reid, Foles put in some lackluster performances. His QBR was a below average 43.1 and he had a near 1:1 TD/INT ratio. Again, this was under a different regime with a different scheme and a different team mentality, so while this is a point against Foles, I can't say that a young quarterback in a new system can't improve year to year.

So what if Foles is able to keep up his consistency and not turn the ball over? What if he's Kelly's version of Jeff Garcia? A player lacking natural talent, but can make quick passes, the right decisions and do that in a way that he's more than a game manager. The short answer is that Foles will start for the rest of the season and this is Vick's last year with the Eagles. The long-term is more complicated.

Can Nick Foles be the guy? In a quarterback heavy draft in 2014, would the Eagles be able to bypass taking a stud QB in favor of addressing the numerous needs on the defensive end of the ball? Does Chip Kelly really want Foles in there or does he want a more mobile quarterback that he can groom that has the skill sets Foles already has? 

Ultimately, I think that Foles can be an everyday quarterback in the league. I'm not sure he has the extra gear to become elite. The more and more you look around football, as the game progresses to a more pass happy system, you need an elite quarterback. Foles, for all his decision making and controlling the football, is still unproven long-term with those skills. If he can develop them, and be one of those single digit INT guys, then I'm all in, but more than likely his skills against high calibur defenses and over time will regress to league average. For all the things that Kelly says he needs in a quarterback, elite skill is probably high on his list. That's probably why he went with Vick to start the season. Vick has the elite skills of a quarterback in the rushing and throwing strength categories, but his decision making and accuracy are terrible. 

Where the Eagles realistically find themselves is 3-3 tied at the top of the NFC East with a big and winnable game. Anyone that has thoughts of tanking or this being a lost season is dilusional. The Eagles are looking to win games, and whether it's Vick or more likely Foles, they're going to do their best to make the playoffs. The way this year is shaping up, the Eagles toughest games are behind them and a lot can happen between now and December, but whether they win the division or finish 3-13 there will be a quarterback available where they are drafting. I believe they'll take one. That doesn't mean Foles can't make it a tough decision for Howie Roseman, but for what Foles has exhibited so far - I think he's our quarterback for good this year.

Joseph Randle will have plenty of open lanes against the Eagles. (fansided.com)

Nick Foles, QB - PHI (12% owned) v DAL

No matter how things work out, Foles looks to be the starter for this week against Dallas, and for that he's worth an add. An interesting side note whenver a new QB takes over is how he affects other teammates. Foles certainly seemed to find Riley Cooper a bit more than Vick did. Could Brent Celek get more involved? 

Joseph Randle, RB - DAL (3%) +Philadelphia Eagles 

While Lance Dunbar appeared to be the favorite to take over when DeMarco Murray went down, Dunbar's own minor injury has led to an opening for Randle. The 5th round pick hasn't shown much so far, but with DMM's injury history along with the Cowboys taking on the Eagles run defense, he's a quality add for this week.

Aaron Dobson, WR - NE (15%) +New York Jets 

Well, we can call of the search for productivity out of one Daniel Amendola this year. The Wes Welker replacement has gone according to everyone's plan except for the Pats and his fantasy owners. While battling through several nagging injuries, Amendola was on the wrong end of a brutal hit that knocked him out cold. League of Denial or not, Danny won't be back in action soon. So with Gronkwatch on-going, let's turn back to Aaron Dobson. We were witnesses to Dobson horrid early season play, but Tom Brady gave him 10 targets last week against New Orleans. Brady has already cured Kenbrell Thompkins so his next mission is Dobson. 

Jarrett Boykin, WR - GB (3%) v CLE

If Aaron Rodgers was doing Aaron Rodgers things then I'd be more aggressive with Boykin. I don't mind so much that Boykin had a couple key drops - I'll cut him some slack for that, but Rodgers can easily assist Boykin in having the game of his career any given week. With Randall Cobb avoiding major injury and James Jones banged up, this should be a no brainer, but while Rodgers is throwing the football like a mere mortal, I would imagine Jordy Nelson (covered by Joe Haden) and Jermichael Finley benefit more than Boykin.

Mike Tolbert/Jonathan Stewart, RB - CAR (6%/7% respectively) v STL

One for now, one for later. As much of a relief it was to see Cam Newton get back to his running ways for Carolina, they braintrust over there must know that they can't rely on Newton as their main running source. DeAngelo Williams is handling the field between the 30's kind of okay, but for the spots that matter Tolbert and potentially a health Stewart get stats where it matters. Stewart makes enough money that if healthy, he has to supplant Tolbert, so depeding on need, I'd keep these guys handy.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Brandon Jacobs, RB - NYG (26%) v MIN

When you watch Brandon Jacobs play like he did on Sunday, you wonder how he isn't a Hall of Famer. He's a big, big running back and when he gets a head of steam going, he is tough to bring down. Sadly though, he hardly runs that way any more - not that he did it that much in his prime either. He filled his role and always has a chance to plop into the end zone, but I'm not here to tell you he'll be getting 2 TDs per game the rest of the season (you know the answer to that already) I'm here to tell you he's not worth adding to your team.

THE 1%

Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (0%) +Atlanta Falcons 

Until we up the % of ownership on this group to 10% it's hard sometimes to not just make this the TE category, but with Wright I'll accept his selection as this week's 1%. The versatile and athletic TE is slowly emerging as a weapon, at least under the Mike Glennon era, and while the most optimistic hope for a Marques Colston clone, what we're really looking at is a viable red zone option on a horrid Buccs team that can't even get Doug Martin a romp to TD glory (only 1 TD all year). So long as Wright doesn't get MRSA between now and Sunday, I like him against a ravaged Falcons defense.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 2

Anquan Boldin made a lot of new fans on Sunday. A lot. (mmbq.si.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

You're Joe Flacco. You won a Super Bowl last year after one of the great playoff runs in NFL history. You signed a piece of paper that gave you $120M for that performance, so that's pretty nice. So come week 1 of the NFL season you pull a tough draw with a road game in Denver because your baseball team wouldn't reschedule their game against the Chicago White Sox of all teams. Then you proceed to get obliterated by Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Still reeling from such an embarrassing defeat, you try to take your mind off your game and just be a regular ... Joe and watch some football on Sunday. You happen to see your former teammate Anquan Boldin, now in San Francisco. Boldin was traded from the Ravens because they wanted to save $2M. Now, he's playing for one of the best teams in the NFL and happens to accounting for over 200 receiving yards. This is not good.

When that game is over, Boldin would have a line of 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown. Your entire wide receiver crew would only put up 15 catches for 215 yards and a touchdown (h/t MMQB). You are bummed.

You're Tom Brady. You just resigned in New England at another cut rate price so the Pats so they can, once again, presumably go get some big name players. Soon after, both of your star tight ends would be injured and incarcerated, and your other star receiver departed for your main AFC rivals for the Super Bowl due to not getting an acceptable contract from the Patriots. The same Patriots you gave a little more money to so they can build a team around you. Except now they've replaced Wes Welker with a version of Wes Welker that has trouble staying on the field. In the opening game against a rookie QB and a ragged team in Buffalo, you barely get out with a win. Your running back redeveloped his fumbling problem, the back up running back played great but fractured his wrist, your new Wes Welker battled through a groin strain all game, and the tight end everyone though you could just plug in had zero catches. You are not happy.

Meanwhile, the original Wes Welker was getting along great with his new buddy Peyton Manning. He hauled in two touchdowns in his typical Welker way. Cutting and moving and sprinting every which way. You are bummed.

There were a'plenty of fantasy points to go around this week, but the debut of some new faces in new places (yes, that means you Chip Kelly) really changed the scope of things already. No one wants to be overly reactionary to things, but next thing you know, Julian Edelman could have 32 touchdowns, or the Eagles may run plays to infinity or the opposing teams' defense just self-combusts on the field.

It's fun to dream, but what we saw was an extremely entertaining week 1 that could mean something as the year progresses, however as of right now, we just don't know.

Things might seem great if you're a LeSean McCoy owner, or you could be wondering if Tom Brady in the 6th was such a great deal when Colin Kaepernick was still on the board. Now is not the time for second guessing because there's nothing you can do about it. Everyone wants to live and die by week 1, but it's hardly written in stone how anything will play out.

Trading for Anquan Boldin may not be the most wise decision, just like cutting David Wilson robably isn't either. There are players that will emerge though. Before you go ahead and cut ties with your 2nd round pick, it's important to look to the waiver wire to see what players might keep this thing rolling and which may not. A season isn't wasted at least until a marquee player struggles for a month or an injury happens, but you can't predict that right now. Now it's best to take a breath before next week and claim some players.

From a mess of a game ... a fantasy star ... will rise. (rantsports.com)

DeAndre Hopkins, WR - HOU (49% owned) v TEN

Leonard Hankerson, WR - WAS (3%) +Green Bay Packers 

Brian Hartline, WR - MIA (46%) +Indianapolis Colts 

Regarding Hopkins, Hankerson and Hartline I could just refer you to my Sleeper WR picks I made a couple of weeks back for these two, but why? What could I possibly gain from doing that?

Alex Smith, QB - KC (40%) +Dallas Cowboys 

Andy Reid acquired Smith from San Francisco after he was displaced by a concussion, then Colin Kapernick. It appears both teams will be happy with their decision. Albeit against the Jaguars, Smith was his usual solid, but not spectacular self. He's definitely a safe play at this point, and with Jamaal Charles healthy and getting Dwayne Bowe more involved, he could have more good games than average ones.

Brent Celek, TE - PHI (21%) v SD

There isn't a great need out there for tight ends as this year's class is pretty deep, but there is reason to take note of Celek in Chip Kelly's offense. It's pretty clear that Celek is the preferred TE for the Eagles over James Casey and Zach Ertz. I'm not a big proponent of rookie tight ends coming in a making a big splash, as they're typically one of the positions with the highest learning curve in the NFL mainly due to pass blocking. Casey looked like he was supposed to take over the main receiving TE role, but injuries and ineffectiveness have left the free agent's status on the team cloudy. Let's face it, you want in on some aspect of this Philly offense.

Terrelle Pryor, QB - OAK (12%) v JAX

Hey, look who it is! It's the NFL's leading rusher after Week 1. Pryor took advantage of a completely underprepared Colts defense to scramble for 112 yards and toss 217 more. He did have two picks in a narrow defeat to the regressing Colts, but this game had all the makings of, "My first option and second option is covered, f'it I'm running." This strategy does not work. Teams will clamp down on Pryor and he will rarely be affective like this moving forward. Although he does have a preferred match-up against the Jags next week.

Julian Edelman, WR - NE (25%) v NYJ

There wasn't much to be thrilled about for owners of any Patriot fantasy owners. This game was a huge letdown. One bright spot was Shane Vereen, who - as it turns out - had a broke wrist all game, and Edelman. The 27 year-old has been with the Pats for 5 years, and although Bill Belichick's aura is slowly diminishing, I'm confident in assuming that if Edelman could have been a regular option on offense, he would have been one already. He's worth a grab just in case, but I wouldn't go crazy for someone that did have two TDs, but also lost out on targets to Kenbrell Thompkins and will lose a lot more looks if Danny Amendola can stay health and if Rob Gronkowski is back in Week 3.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Da'Rel Scott, RB - NYG (3%)

David Wilson had some fumble issues yet again. Fortunately for him and fantasy owners, with Andre Brown injured, there are no other good options. Da'Rel Scott isn't the answer. Neither is Brandon Jacobs or Willis McGahee. It would be wholly insane for Tom Coughlin to immediate give up on Wilson, who has a ton of promise. In fact, it would basically be the opposite of what it means to be a coach just to give up on the guy. Unless Wilson has another multi-fumble game, I don't expect him to lose his job, so that's good. The bad is that there's almost no way he's getting goal line touches. Good for either Jacobs or McGahee. Good for Brandon Myers.

THE 1%

Harry Douglas, WR - ATL (1%) v STL

Roddy White is not 100%, and this just feels like one of those years where he never will be. Douglas is the guy that could benefit from a less fit White.

Eagles New Head Coach

Chip Kelly is bringing his sassy fashion sense, and high powered offense, to Philadelphia.

Well that was unexpected.

After a coaching search that was running out of coaching candidates the Philadelphia Eagles went back to the well to hire Chip Kelly as their new head coach. This move comes as a shock as Kelly had spurned the Eagles and a couple of other NFL offers to return to the Oregon Ducks. But, much like his fast moving, mis-direction offense, Kelly changed his field and accepted the job shortly after fan and odds on favorite Gus Bradley was boarding a ship to fly to Jacksonville after the Eagles failed to secure his signature.

I'm sure more details will emerge regarding Kelly's decision. Did he return to the Birds after a change of heart? Did a little birdie whisper some not so great things about impending NCAA sanctions for Oregon? Or, after missing out on Bill O'Brien, Matt McCoy, and Gus Bradley - did Jeffrey Lurie realize that the assorted fired NFL coaches (Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith, and Brian Billick) wouldn't fit his vision so he made a Godfather offer?

Could be a combination of all of these things. Overall, while people are skeptical of Kelly's NFL abilities, time will tell about that. He is a leader of men and he has been successful everywhere he's went (which does not include 1 hour in the NFL). This will be interesting to see how he adapts his offense to the NFL and with the Eagles personnel. There are exciting players on offense like LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown, DeSean Jackson, Dion Lewis, and Jeremy Maclin. However, the quarterback is in flux. I would not expect this to change Michael Vick returning to the fold as there is just too much blood in the water and Vick has proven he's just not a winner.

I could see Kelly staying with Nick Foles in a modified - less option happy offense - until the right player comes along. Along with taking a stab at a speed QB in the late rounds of the draft. There are still a lot of holes that need to be filled on defense and getting the offensive line healthy. Should Geno Smith fall to the Eagles in the first round, it would still be an ill-advised pick.

Hiring a veteran staff around him will also be paramount. The positive about the NFL coaching landscape now is that there are a lot of experienced coaches out there looking for work. Being able to bring on the expertise of a Whisenhunt or Smith would be a huge coup for the first time NFL coach.

With him officially in place, Kelly's NFL experience will be bolting ahead as fast as his Oregon offense. As mentioned, staff will be needed, scouting needs to get underway for the draft (although you'd hope Kelly already has some insights into a lot of the players since he was at Oregon), and he needs to build a strategy around this Eagles team with the goal of getting them winning again soon.