FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 13

Stevan Ridley is forcing Bill Belichick to look for other options at RB. (GETTY)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

As sports fans, we like to romanticize games in our minds. When many of us forget the epic Pats and Broncos game Sunday night, we will most likely remember the story of two halves. Peyton Manning leading his juggernaut Broncos team to a commanding 24-0 lead at halftime, only to have Tom Brady do Tom Brady things and bring his Patriots back to secure an overtime victory. This was certainly a huge win for the Pats, and time will tell if this victory served as a warning of the Patriots tenacity, or just a reminder to keep the pedal to the metal for the Broncos once the playoffs get underway. 

Yes, it's easy to want to look at the offensive side of things, but what really caused this raucous affair to unfold on national television was something much uglier. Turnovers. 

Each team can attribute 17 points allowed due to seven total turnovers (3 for the Pats, 4 for the Broncos) which wildly swung the game from start to finish. 

Two of the main culprits of the turnovers were Stevan Ridley and Montee Ball. Two running backs who have almost made it their calling card this year. Ridley, the primary back in New England, leads all non-QB players with fumbles lost (3 rushing, 1 receiving) and Montee Ball, the rookie back who has fumbled and lost the football 3 times on minimal carries as the back up to Knowshon.

Both were immediately benched for the rest of the game. Presumably not as "punishment," which is an antiquated thought since this is the NFL and not preschool, but so these two couldn't go back on the field and fumble again. 

Ridley and Ball have shown time and time again that they have trouble securing the football. When opposing teams know this, I'd say their efforts at ripping the ball from these RBs loose grips increases about 72.1%. They are a liability on the field and whether it's mental or a flaw in their technique, this isn't going to get any better for these struggling, albeit talented backs.

So far this year, both have had fantasy relevance. Ridley was the 24th player taken on average in ESPN fantasy drafts, and Ball is the highly rated rookie out of Wisconsin and took my #22 RB ranking pre-season, and the player whom many thought was going to be the starter in Denver by this point in the year. He's even been sneaking into some goal line opportunities recently despite his issues. Given their individual hype, both have been a bust so far this year. The final hammer may have fallen on these backs Sunday night, with the fear being that both would be relegated to the bench for the rest of the season. Let's look at each player's situation and see if that's the case.

Starting with Ridley, he is both the more important fantasy player, but also the one in the most jeopardy. Ridley was the undisputed starter for the Patriots, granted with a lot of competition. Shane Vereen has his role as third down back, Brandon Bolden as well, and LeGarrette Blount as a change of pace. Vereen and Bolden have had injury issues throughout the season, but now both are back and healthy. 

This leaves Ridley in the doghouse of Bill Belichick with plenty of viable options to take his place. Belichick, of course, has the gumption to outright bench Ridley for his crew of other runningbacks. Belichick has a system in place on offense with players that are interchangable, unless it's Tom Brady. 

Bolden had a solid game filling in for Ridley running for 58 yards and a TD along with an 11 yard catch. If he can up his game, he is a legitimate threat to take Ridley's spot. 

Vereen will continue to be utilized primarily as a pass catcher, and I'm sure BB will feed him the ball if he's on his rushing game. 

Blount, who had a fumble of his own, isn't really a threat to anyone. 

The positive thing for Ridley is that he is the most talented every down back the Patirots have, and they are looking to win a Super Bowl. Suddenly benching him and limiting the offensive options the Pats have won't help anyone. Belichick has some trick up his sleeve that will help Ridley overcome this issue one way or another. If that's drilling during practice or limiting his touches on the ball, Belichick will pull out all of the stops. Ridley is too important a player for the Pats to become an afterthought, but the primary risk I see is if Bolden has a big game. That could have Bolden and Ridley swap roles.

Ball has been looming over the past couple of weeks. He's fumbled three times on 75 carries, but he's still gotten double digit touches in his last two games; including a 2 TD performance against Kansas City. This whole time Knowshon Moreno has been a destroyer of worlds in fantasy. Currently rated the 7th overall player in fantasy this year, Moreno carried the ball 37 times for 224 yards and a TD on a bruised ankle. While Moreno has been underappreciated all year, he really put his stamp on the starting RB position with that performance. 

Along with Moreno's herculean performance, Ball's latest fumble also paved the way for C.J. Anderson - an undrafted rookie from California - to get some significant action. He's only gotten to line-up next to Petyon in two games this year, but is averaging over 5 yards per carry. Certainly a limited sample size, and no one knows what his ball handling ability is (he almost lost a hand off on Sunday), but there have been positive returns. 

If Moreno can't go (it appears he will) against a weakened Kansas City defense, I would imagine Anderson and Ball will split carries. The Broncos aren't going to give up on Ball, but if his fumbling issues can't be corrected, then there will always be next year for him. Ultimately, barring injury, it doesn't look like Ball will be the primary back in Denver for the rest of the season.

It's interesting that these two backs, in this one game, can have their issues boil over and truly jeopardize their involvement in the team moving forward. That's not to say that there isn't a bit of bad luck on their side (I'm sure Bill Barnwell agrees). Plenty of running backs have fumbled as much as Ridley and Ball. Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, and Jamaal Charles all have 3 fumbles, but only Peterson has lost all three. Statistically, Ridley and Ball should have had some better fortune on their own team recovering these errors, but at the same time, no one will mistake either of their on-field impact in the same terms of an Adrian Peterson. The mistakes for these two backs are much less forgivable. 

Sorry for all the doom and gloom pre-Thanksgiving. I would have liked to just watch this .gif over and over again. Man, did anyone's afternoon go from awesome to terrible faster than Scott Tolzien?




Carson Palmer, QB - ARZ (40% owned) @ +Philadelphia Eagles 

Good Gawd, it's Carson Palmer! The Cardinals ar 7-4? I had no idea. Palmer has really clicked with Michael Floyd recently and he also has that Larry Fitzgerald guy which has produced back to back 20+ point games. A road game in Philadelphia is a bit tougher than it was earlier in the year, but the potential is still there for Palmer to make this his third straight 20 point day.

Jacoby Jones, WR - BAL (12%) +Pittsburgh Steelers 

A word of warning, there are a lot of Ravens and Steelers on this list. The primary reason is that both of these teams were terrible at the beginning of the year, but are starting to emerge right now. Their Thanksgiving Day game has a lot of talking heads saying the winner of that game will be the favorite for the last playoff spot in the AFC. Go figure! Oh, as for Jones, he's a constant deep threat, and for Flacco to win, he needs to air it out.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR - PIT (35%) v. +Baltimore Ravens 

He's not the most exciting player to own. Antonio Brown is the undisputed big dog in the Steel City, but Cotchery has held his own as the WR2B to Emmanuel Sanders WR2A.

Bernard Pierce, RB - BAL (24%) @ +Pittsburgh Steelers 

Not that Pierce has taken the job from Ray Rice by any stretch, but the run game in Baltimore has been so pathetic that at some point John Harbaugh just has to give Pierce 25 carries and see what he can do, right?

John Carlson, TE - MIN (12%) v. +Chicago Bears 

This Bears defense is atrocious. If Cordarrelle Patterson has 3 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs I wouldn't be shocked. Look for Carlson to get a lot of play.

Dennis Pitta, TE - BAL (3%) v. +Baltimore Ravens 

A pre-season sleeper pick, Pitta is working his way back to the starting line-up. He participated in walk-throughs on Monday, but isn't expected to be ready for Thursday. Could be a good stash if you're thin at TE.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Benny Cunningham, RB - StL (3%) @ SF

We've been here with Daryl Richardson (fail) and Isaiah Pead (fail), and Zac Stacy (success). I don't expect much from Cunningham on the road in San Francisco. 

THE 1%

C.J. Anderson, RB - DEN (1%) @ +Kansas City Chiefs 

This isn't your Week 10 Chiefs defense. Aside from having a tough time with Denver a couple of weeks ago and two of their best pass rushers picking up knocks, you can't be going into Arrowhead too nervous. Moreno will likely play, but even if he does you have to imagine the coaching staff will look to take it a bit easier on a guy with a bruised ankle that's carried the ball 64 times in the last two games. I'd expect Moreno to have a more "normal" 15 carries and more catches. Anderson and Ball can split the remaining 15, and it's a coin flip rock, paper, scissor from there.

PERSONS OF INTEREST

Julian Edelman, WR - NE (38%), Brandon Bolden, RB - NE (6%), Nate Burleson, WR - DET (23%), Jacob Tamme, TE - DEN (2%), Dennis Johnson, RB - HOU (11%), Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (17%), Mike Glennon, QB - TB (21%), Cordarrelle Patterson, WR - MIN (18%), Bilal Powell, RB (39%)

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 12

Fantasy owners rejoiced Bobby Rainey's Week 11 performance. Fantasy writers rejoiced being able to make easy puns. (si.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

I can honestly say that I don't recall dishing out fantasy football info as well last year as I have this year. Perhaps I've been too generous with my information because as I look ahead to Week 12, I see a lot of FAABulous favorites still available on waivers. Under 50% owned. So, I must wonder to myself if this is indeed the case, then maybe they need the spotlight put back on these fantasy factors. 

Over the past couple of weeks, I've added a Persons of Interest section with previous players that I have mentioned in FAABulous, but now in light of seeing how many of these players are prominently involved in Week 12, it would only make sense to bring it back and build a Week 12 line-up after these undervalued players. Hopefully, this will get most of these players off the Persons of Interest List and into more Yahoo! line-ups.

I was going to base this introduction off of The Purge. A movie that I saw the trailer for and it looked interesting, but more than a couple of people have said the movie is a total disappointment. Paradoxically, this is supposed to be about players that are certainly not disappointments, but since I don't know what this movie is about, nor care I'm pushing forward anyway. Here are your Purge List All-Stars.

Case Keenum, QB - HOU (49% owned) v. JAX

We can all admit. What happened to Case Keenum last week was awkward. Having him benched for the hated Matt Schaub. Schaub getting yelled at by one of the nicest guys in the NFL, Andre Johnson (who, oh by the way, has 1000x more TDs this season with Keenum under center as opposed to Schaub), and all of this orchestrated by the head coach who was recovering from a stroke? It's been that kind of year in Houston, but Keenum is still a strong play against those Jaguars.

Josh McCown, QB - CHI (16%) @ StL

Trust in Trestman! Trust in Trestman!

Bobby Rainey, RB - TB (28%) +Detroit Lions 

Rainey was my The 1% pick for last week, but you added Brian Leonard, didn't you?

Montee Ball, RB - DEN (37%) +New England Patriots 

It's happening! The fear of all Knowshon Moreno owners. Ball, despite being a part a fumble early in the game, managed to plunge himself into the end zone twice against the Chiefs for touchdowns. If Moreno gets those, he has a normal Moreno game. Without them you have 7.90 points. The best thing about Moreno to this point has been his consistency in the offense, but the Broncos seem to be looking to shake that up and get Ball more in the mix.

Donald Brown, RB - IND (27%) +Arizona Cardinals 

He's been better than Trent Richardson for a couple of weeks now, and last week was the official game where Brown is so much more effective than Richardson that you can't really ignore it. A tough match-up with Arizona, but Brown should be addded in all leagues.

Kenny Stills, WR - NO (42%) +Atlanta Falcons 

Have you seen this Falcons team play recently? This isn't just a team that has succumb to injuries, this is an absolute mess of a team. Even being in Atlanta won't help them against a Saints' offense that is out for blood.

Cordarrelle Patterson - MIN (17%) @ GB

Patterson has yet to showcase his offensive potential lining up at the line of scrimmage, but his opportunites should increase in the coming weeks. He started his first game of the year last week, and this week he faces a poor Green Bay secondary.

Marlon Brown, WR - BAL (12%) v. NYJ

Brown does have an injury that needs to be monitored, but if healthy he has shown an ability to use his size to be a great target for Joe Flacco.

Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (27%) +Detroit Lions 

Tim, I thought we had something. When I picked you as my The 1% and you began showing signs of promise. You looked to have a good relationship with Mike Glennon, and put up two straight weeks of solid perfomances only to fall on your face in Week 10 and 11. Yes, you even hurt me personally when I needed 2.50 points from you that Monday Night in Miami and you netted 1.90. But we can work this out. We still have a future!

Delanie Walker, TE - TEN (22%) +Oakland Raiders 

While not getting as much attention as Jordan Reed in Washington, Walker has been better than Reed. I don't expect that trend to change. His 22% ownership is criminally low.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Brandon LaFell, WR - CAR (25%) +Miami Dolphins 

LaFell has always been inconsistent. With Cam Newton making strides this year, you'd expect LaFell would show some benefits of working with the Big Man, but seems to be the same old LaFell. 

THE 1%

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB - CLE (4%) v. PIT

Oh, those crazy Cleveland Browns. Still putting up a fight with their third string quarterback starting, trading away their former 3rd overall pick in what now looks to be a great deal for them, ignoring their star TE Jordan Cameron for no apparent reason, and now it looks like Ogbonnaya is their starting RB. Pittsburgh has been uncharacteristically shaky against the run this year. He's worth an add.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 9

Key injuries are cause for concern for fantasy owners. (seattlepi.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The past couple of weeks we have covered the rash of injuries to hit some of the NFL's key players. In fantasy leagues losing a Julio Jones for the year is devastating, but for better or worse you have to move on. You cut Jones, add one of the fine alternatives as suggested by your humble narrator, and you keep on trucking.

But now, as these injuries pile up, we have to focus on the collateral damage. The players affected indirectly by these notable injuries, and really put on the - I don't want to say panic hat, but let's say - worry hoodie. 

For every key injury, a team gets weaker. Players do have the ability to rise above these kinds of things, but here are some elite fantasy options that have had their legs cut out from under them so far. Let's take a look at a couple of them and see if we should stick it out or look for better options.

THE QUARTERBACKS
Russell Wilson, SEA 
Key Injuries: Russell Okung - OT, Breno Giacomini - OT

If you're the Rams you have to feel a little slighted about your 14-9 loss last night on Monday Night Football. You were within a goal line stand of defeating one of the best teams in football on a night where hardly anyone in St. Louis cared about football, and all you hear is how bad the Seahawks looked. Well, there's a reason for that. Both starting offensive tackles are injured and without them, not only is the pass protection poor, but this also greatly limits Seattle's run game and play action attack. 

It's a bad scene, but the good news is that it will get better for the Seahawks. Pete Carroll is hopeful Okung can make it back this year, and Giacomini has a much more positive outlook. With an easy schedule over the next couple of weeks, and the imminent return of Percy Harvin don't lose faith in Wilson.
DECISION: HOLD

Matt Ryan, ATL
Key Injuries: Roddy White - WR, Julio Jones - WR, Stephen Jackson - RB

At the beginning of the year if you had to talk about what the Falcons' keys to success were this year, it probably had a lot to do with all of those guys I just named. Jones is the only one lost for the year, but White hasn't been the same as he's battled an ankle injury all year before finally missing some games which allowed teams to double team Tony Gonzalez and leave Ryan with few options. 

Jackson hasn't been healthy either and he hasn't shown much punch when he has been in there, so with Jaquizz Rodgers an effective weapon in his absence there could be less of Jackson on the field.

Sure Ryan has had adequate fill-ins at WR like Harry Douglas and someone I'll mention in a few, but can he really keep this going? He had a stinker of a game last week, and while the pass attempts will be up there, high volume throwing has never been Ryan's calling card. 
DECISION: SELL

Tom Brady, NE
Key Injuries: Danny Amendola - WR, Shane Vereen - RB, Sebastian Vollmer - OT, Rob Gronkowski - TE, Vince Wilfork - DT, Jerod Mayo - LB, Aquib Talib - CB

That's a lot of names. Sure, Sebastian Vollmer and Jerod Mayo doesn't jump off the page, but for every massive injury on offense the Pats have sustained, there's been a huge loss at every level of the defense over the past couple of weeks. A poor defense puts a lot of pressure on an offense, and with key injuries on that front the Pats can't operate like they would like.

It's easy to pass a lot of the blame on injuries, but Brady has not been good this year. You have to scroll pretty far down to find him on Football Outsider's DVOA ranks, and if you just watch him he's not as sharp as he used to be; especially down field. Having Amendola healthy (for however many quarters that lasts) and Gronk gaining steam can only help, but there are legit concerns for this team. If anyone can make a big turnaround in the second half, it's Brady, but you can't be certain.
DECISION: SELL


THE RUNNING BACKS
LeSean McCoy, PHI
Key Injury: Michael Vick - QB

Believe it or not, there was a QB controversy in Philadelphia. Vick or Foles was the question and it's looking more and more likely that neither is the answer. After Foles' epic choke job against the Cowboys, Vick re-injured his sensitive hamstring leaving mortified Philly fans to watch Matt Barkley play 4+ quarters of NFL football. Foles might possibly be back this week at Oakland, but Barkley is taking first team reps today.

It's pretty clear that McCoy is a more effective runner with Vick than Foles (there is an article somewhere on Philly.com I read that broke it down ... if I had a research team I'm sure I'd link to it), and with Matt Barkley, well, McCoy might not want to make the trip West. 

These past two weeks aren't the best to review the Eagles as they've been horrible, but there are several positives for McCoy moving forward. He is the undisputed back on a once mighty offense. He will get his opportunities, and the schedule is a favorable one for him. There is upside to jump on here, so I'd only move McCoy for another Top 10 back.
DECISION: HOLD, UNLESS YOU GET A TOP BACK IN RETURN

Matt Forte, CHI
Key Injury: Jay Cutler - QB

I'm electing to Trust in Trestman. Josh McCown looked good when he stepped in for Cutler against Washington, and the schedule in the coming weeks isn't too bad. I think there will be a lot of focus on getting Forte the ball, and McCown can make that happen.
DECISION: HOLD

THE WIDE RECEIVERS
Josh Gordon, CLE
Key Injury: Brian Hoyer - QB
Key Decision: Jason Campbell starting over Brandon Weeden

People love throwing Josh Gordon the football. He has at least 6 targets in the last 4 weeks, and when he gets the ball, he makes big plays. I'm sure most of Cleveland and all of Gordon's fantasy owners are hoping that Campbell stays at QB, but you never know what Cleveland is going to do. The caveat here is that there have been rumors since the beginning of the season that Gordon could be traded. That is looking more and more unlikely, but a move to a contender could boost his value even higher. 
DECISION: HOLD

Vincent Jackson, TB
Key Injuries: Doug Martin - RB, Carl Nicks, OG, Greg Schiano - HC

I think it's pretty clear that the Buccs hate Greg Schiano. The disciplinarian model doesn't mean failure in the NFL, but you have to have a personality to back it up. I wonder if Schiano's time at Rutgers, a decent football school but not elite, didn't give him the skills to manage high level talent? 

Some injuries took their toll on this team, and cutting their starting quarterback a couple of weeks into the season isn't great either. Oh, and there was also an infectious disease outbreak in the locker room. So this is either a bad football team or a bad football team that is being cursed by God or something. The good news for V-Jax is that none of this bothers him. He makes big plays and gets the football. Even with Mike Glennon hurling footballs around, Jackson should demand and get several deep balls per game. His production will be sporadic, but he has plenty of big games in him.
DECISION: HOLD

Just another victim.

Emmanuel Sanders, PIT - WR (50%) +New England Patriots 

Slowly ... extremely slowly, the Steelers look to be figuring something out. Not exactly dominating, but at least not being embarrassing. Sanders deserves a bench spot.

Daniel Thomas, MIA - RB (16%) v. Cincinnati

Lamar Miller is owned in 84% of leagues. Thomas should be owned in just as much. There can be arguments that Miller isn't getting a fair shake at the majority of carries or he has and just hasn't delivered, but Joe Philbin is trotting both of them out there. I mean Miller is averaging 4.5 YPC compared to Thomas' 3.5, so I'm sure it's not just a numbers thing, but oh well.

Montee Ball, DEN - RB (38%) BYE

Knowshon Moreno owners don't want you to know this, but this is what we've feared all season long. At some point, for some reason, the Broncos are going to decide they need to ease up on the oft-injured Moreno and start getting Montee Ball the football. Ball's touches last week against Washington were many but produced little. He did get some goal line looks, and Moreno has already lost one TD to a stupid reason. So who knows what's in store. It'd be shocking if the Broncos turned the pass catching and pass blocking part of Moreno's game over to Ball - especially with Peyton Manning dinged up, but crazier things have happened.

Peyton Hillis, NYG - RB (40%) BYE

Has a football player gone from more likable to less likable so quickly than Hillis? One year he's bowling over defenders and winning Madden Cover votes, the next he's sitting out games for no reason, demanding more money and ruining his career. Well after a shot in Tampa Bay, he's on the Giants and showing a little spring in his step. 70 yards against the Eagles is nothing to do double back-flips about, but it's something. He would most assuredly be the goal line back until Andre Brown returns.

Dexter McCluster, KC - RB/WR (5%) +Buffalo Bills 

We've all been waiting for it. Begging for it. The day when McCluster becomes scat-back extraordinaire. Ultimately, that time may never come, but Andy Reid has found some use for McCluster. In the Chiefs conservative offense, McCluster has worked well as a receiver for Alex Smith. Captain Check-down has turned his nose up at Dwayne Bowe and made McCluster an apple in his orchard. If I would have told you McCluster and Bowe would have similar value going into Week 9 you probably would have told me to jump in a slow cooker and die, but that's where we are.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Lance Moore, NO - WR (28%) +New York Jets 

Marques Colston has done something to offend Drew Brees. He's not getting any looks. Even with Jimmy Graham semi-injured and Darren Sproles doing zilch, Colston still only managed 3 receptions for 18 yards last week. Lance Moore re-introduced himself with a touchdown catch, but I'd rather have Kenny Stills than Moore.

THE 1%

Drew Davis, ATL - WR (1%) +Carolina Panthers 

Who needs Julio Jones and Roddy White? The Falcons have Harry Douglas and Drew Davis! Davis is getting as many snaps as Douglas and if Douglas is in Jones' role, than Davis is in White's. Of course Roddy should be back at some point this year, making Douglas the better long-term add, but Davis has some short-term value.

Joel Dreessen, DEN - TE (1%)

Bonus 1%! Broncos have a much needed bye this week, but it's worth noting that Julius Thomas has a knock on his ankle, and he should be fine coming out of the bye, but any time you can potentially add a piece of the Denver offense, you must take note.

PERSONS OF INTEREST 

Noteworth players that have previously been mentioned on FAABulous that are still un-owned in 50% of leagues.

Marvin Jones, CIN - WR (22%), Terrelle Pryor, OAK - QB (36%), Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (5%), Mike Tolbert, CAR - RB (21%), Kenny Stills, NO - WR (9%), Aaron Dobson, WR - NE (23%)