Looking for a Fight @ UFC 167: GSP v. Hendricks

Johny Hendricks looks to end Georges St-Pierre's reign at welterweight. (scifighting.com)

I mentioned that with the UFC celebrating it's 20 years this week that there's a lot to discuss and review. All networks that cover the UFC as well as the organization itself has done a great job showcasing how far the sport has come along in a short time. There's a lot to digest and a lot to take in, so I highly suggest you go peruse everything places like mmafighting.com and UFC.com have to offer. There is a mega card this weekend, so I'll just pass along a couple of quick thoughts on the UFC and how it's affected my sports fandom then get right to GSP v. Hendricks.

Personally, I first started getting into the UFC the first year after I graduate from college. My best friend from home had apparently gotten into it his senior year with his roommates, so he invited me over for a pay per view. I knew a little about the UFC. Very little. This was probably a couple of months before Roger Huerta's Sports Illustrated cover came out.

I'm a big sports fan, so I was intrigued by a sport that had caught the attention of my friend, who at the time, probably didn't know who Peyton Manning was.

We are sitting in the living room of his apartment, and I just start asking basic questions. Not about the rules, as I thought I'd be able to figure those out, but about the fandom of the UFC.

"Who's the biggest star?"
"Chuck Liddell."

"Who is the biggest fan favorite? The guy everyone likes?"
"Randy Couture."

"Who is your favorite fighter?"
"This up and coming guy, Georges St-Pierre (or how I transcribed it in my mind at the time: George St. Pierre)."

These basic tenants are what started my path to become a UFC fan. I can't remember what really made me decide I'm in on this sport. There wasn't a moment where I realized this sport was for me. What I do remember is just wanting to know about the fighters.

This actually proved to be kind of difficult way back in 2007. There was the Ultimate Fighter, but that didn't show UFC stars fighting. There weren't many options for free fights on YouTube or at UFC.com, and the amount of media (Fox Sports, ESPN, Yahoo!, and such) were barely or non-existent. I've never been a big message board guy, so I wasn't digging a bunker in Sherdog world, just looking around.

Over time though, as my friend and I would order the pay per views and watch them I just couldn't get enough. I quickly acted as my n00b self liking the champs, but as my knowledge of the sport developed I started liking other "non-champs" as well.

Slowly but surely I just kept consuming information. Remembering fights and fighters. Of course also finding a passion for the sport itself. My friend and I also grew up on the WWF. So while the UFC wasn't the spectacle the UFC (except for Dana White) was, I was happy to engage in the realness of the fighters and the storylines that UFC marketing put together. Let's face it, to get into this type of occupation, you probably have an interesting history.

Becoming a fan of the UFC wasn't a matter of getting into it, but rather just opening your eyes to the obvious. This is an exhilarating and thrilling sports event. There isn't a regular season in the UFC, it's the Super Bowl every month.

To this day, when people - notably: my friends who are primarily (not to be sexist, the UFC is fine for the whole family to love) 20-35 year old males - don't like the UFC, don't get it, think it's too slow, or most horridly find it to be homoerotic (another note: this specific person is not my friend he was a friend of a friend) I can't even begin to explain how wrong they are. To have those thoughts while watching the UFC is beyond my realm. I have no idea what these people are watching.

But hey, that's their right. If they're not into it, I'm not going to put them in a gogoplata to make them understand. I just don't get it.

So with the 20th Anniversary approaching and a great card about to take place Saturday night I'll be driving to South Jersey to that same friend's house to have some beer, smoke a cigar, eat some pizza, and watch some fights. Congrats, UFC and thanks.

BREAKDOWN

Johny Hendricks wants to knock out Georges St-Pierre. You don't say? Well, he's going to have to in order to get the belt on Saturday.

It seems every GSP fight is surrounded by the strength of his opponent. What the opponent brings to the table and can do to GSP. The spotlight is on the Champ, but when it comes to the storyline, it's about how GSP's opponent exposes certain risks in GSP's game, thus alluding to a close fight or that shocking potential upset. Kind of like when the Batman movies were always about the villain and never about, you know, Batman. "Hey guys, we got Schwarzenegger to be Dr. Freeze!"

The stance with Hendricks is easy. He might be the hardest pound for pound puncher the UFC has. Regardless of weight class, you don't see people get their consiousness clicked off quite as easily has Hendricks has been able to do in his recent fights. This is one-punch knock out power. No follow up ground and pound, no person that got hit attempting to defend himself. This is punch and goodnight.

Hendricks' power along with his elite wresting is certainly a threat. At this point he's probably better as an all around MMA artist than Josh Koscheck and even Matt Hughes in GSP and Hughes' third fight. I must admit, I wasn't a believer at all in Hendricks until his Carlos Condit fight. He was tenacious, closed ground, and made things difficult for Condit the entire fight. Hendricks ability to continually move forward and threaten his opponents is a unique skill for a UFC fighter, especially once you begin taking on elite competition.

Martin Kampmann and Jon Fitch serve as good highlight reel fodder, but let's be honest with those two fighters. Kampmann has made his livelihood getting clocked and either rebounding or not to win/lose a fight and Fitch just lost to Josh Berkmann. Neither were equipped with the proper tools to defend against Hendricks' assault while standing. GSP has great striking defense, and it doesn't translate to an easy target for Hendricks and his left hook.

We know the wrestling is there for Hendricks, but we also know GSP has some of the best MMA wrestling in the UFC. He's done well against every fighter, including collegiate champs like Koscheck. It is worth noting though that GSP did have to work harder for those take downs the second time against Koscheck.

Hendricks won't eliminate GSP's wrestling, but he will be able to neutralize it greatly. For that reason, I'm expecting this to be much more of a stand up battle early on. Hendricks will look to pressure and challenge GSP, and GSP will look to utilize his jab and leg kicks to attempt to keep Hendricks at bay.

Hendricks' dogged approach and seemingly reckless ability to keep moving forward does present a challenge for GSP, but GSP also has a devastating jab to work with a 7 inch reach advantage against the stocky Hendricks. Hendricks may want to come forward and be aggressive, but GSP has the physical capabilities to make it hard for Hendricks to get near GSP without incurring a lot of damage. Not to go back to Koscheck again, but that fight was a mighty struggle for Kos once GSP popped his orbital bone. This is something Hendricks cannot take lightly.

Furthermore, in regards to GSP's offensive attack, I expect him to be able to maintain distance, force Hendricks to be highly active and be able to stay away from sustaining major damage. The main thing GSP has to keep in mind that when he looks to counter Hendricks, that Hendricks will keep moving forward. When GSP was rocked by Carlos Condit, it was the result of Condit throwing a two punch combo he had probably thrown a dozen times by that point in the fight, however the time he caught GSP, he finished off that two punch combo with a head kick. GSP had expected the same combo, dropped his hands, and got caught. Hendricks will throw multiple punch combinations and won't stop at one or two, but use his power to force his way inside by throwing three or four punch combos to close the distance. This is something GSP has to be cautious of and not be too aggressive in his counter striking.

For GSP to win, I expect him to be highly elusive from Hendricks and utilize his great jab and leg kicks to attempt to quickly tire the #1 contender.

Speaking of that jab, I had an idea yesterday while I was reading up on coverage of the fight. GSP seems to be keeping back a "secret" that he is looking to show off tonight. Speculation has been that this is a possible retirement, rekindling a super fight, or movies or whatever. People have also positioned this secret to happen post-fight, but I think GSP's surprise is a strategy he will utilize against Hendricks to catch him off guard. I think he's going to come out fighting southpaw style. Call it the reverse Rocky II strategy.

Think about it. GSP's striking is dynamic, but when he does fight orthodox, he doesn't typically fight in a standard muay thai stance, which is more upright and tall in order to better utilize leg kicks and avoid incoming strikes. His stance is based in his karate background with some wrestling modifications. This leaves his base wide, but also keeps his head right in the pocket - even leaning forward a bit. He's been clipped multiple times in the nose and forehead against BJ Penn and Koscheck and Condit as a result.

Standing in a southpaw stance keeps him in a better defensive stance against Hendricks' left hand and will certainly disorient a fighter that is expecting to fight an orthodox fighter. In boxing particularly, where the jab is so highly utilized, many trainers have suggested moving to a southpaw stance because if you're throwing your jab, why wouldn't you use your stronger limb to deliver those blows? I'm sure GSP's jab with his right hand doesn't lose any mustard when he throws it. Even during the weigh-ins yesterday, did GSP give away his secret? He started orthodox then jump switched to his southpaw stance with a smile on his face. Granted GSP usually lines up this way for face offs, but the jump switch struck me as interesting.

GSP lined up in his southpaw stance last night.

Wouldn't this be such a GSP thing to do? He always unveils a new trick. Something he's practiced thousands of time at Tri Star. Away from cameras rolling or reporters reporting.

I think GSP looks extremely focused or even obsess with this fight. In interviews, he doesn't look stoic or frustrated like he did leading up in his last couple of fights, he looks energized. I think Hendricks will struggle to get a hold of GSP in the ring and will incur a lot of damage trying to get to him. As the fight wears on, Hendricks will move a bit slower. If he tries to shoot in and take down GSP early, then you know he's in trouble.

GSP will take his normal calculated approach, but Hendricks will put up a fight and put himself in harms way more than previous challengers. GSP may not have knock out power, but his strikes are damaging. GSP will never move away from his takedowns because it's an important part of his striking game and keeping his opponents guessing, but I don't think he'll lean heavily on the takedowns until the third round. As Hendricks tires, he will expose that and utilize his MMA wrestling and jiu jitsu.

GSP wants a finish and fans have been waiting for a virtuoso performance, and I think accomplishes both tonight. GSP by rear naked choke in the 4th round.

Looking for a Fight: UFC 158

Don't be annoyed, homie. (ufc.com)

Nick Diaz interrupting after a reporter asked Georges St-Pierre if he was pampered: “I hope so, motherf-----. If I had that much money, I’d be pampering myself up and having mother-----s pampering my s--- left and right. Every hour, there’d be [someone] showing up to pamper me. That would be that.”

St-Pierre: “Let me tell you something, uneducated fool. Listen to me. I have not always been rich. I started from the bottom. I made myself and worked very hard to be where I am right now. I know you don’t believe this, because you didn’t succeed yet, and maybe you will never succeed in your life because I don’t think you’re smart enough to understand how you should [act] to reach that point.

“When you talk about people doing stuff for me... when you reach a point for your business, you need a team of people to work for you to make the economy, to keep the money rolling. You don’t know anything about me, man. You have no idea where I come from. You’re not the only jealous guy.”

Diaz: “That sounds nice, Georges. That sounds nice. If I wore some tight shorts out there and got a haircut and had someone buttering me up halfway through [my career] and telling me this bulls---, maybe it would have worked out. You don’t even know where I come from. I’m not jealous, OK? You did what you had to do. I don’t mean to be disrespectful. I don’t have anything against you, and I think you’ve done a great job for who you are and what you have to work with. So what if you’re pampered out? I don’t have anything against that. All I’m saying is that I hope so, motherf-----, because this is some f----d up s---. If I had the money and the right people on my side working with me to make sure I had my s--t ready, I would be doing it. But I’m over here still doing that s---. Try doing that s--- from when you’re 21 all the way until you’re 32, which you are now. It’s a bitch.”

St-Pierre: “If you are where you are right now, and I have what I have, that’s not my fault. That’s because of you, man. You did not succeed. It’s on you, man.”

And to think, people wanted GSP to fight Johny Hendricks.

A media conference call for UFC 158 changed the collective course of excitement for the title fight Saturday night between Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz.

On October 29, 2011 Diaz had just finished bludgeoning B.J. Penn into another retirement, and the controversial Stockton, CA fighter didn't mince his words after his hand was raised. He called out GSP, who at the time was nursing a knee injury that kept him out of his scheduled title defense against Carlos Condit. As the camera stayed, as it usually is, transfixed on Diaz and cut to GSP to see his reaction cage side to being called scared and his injury being questioned, it's clear something inside GSP was burning.

Those initial reactions were confirmed in the post fight press conference by Dana White. He said GSP came up to him and demanded to fight Nick Diaz. He thought Diaz was beyond disrespectful, and he wanted to give Diaz the worst beating of his CAR-eer (emphasized for GSP). The fight made sense. The fans wanted it, Diaz deserved it, and the UFC was eager to put on a show that could pit the completely opposite personas of GSP and Diaz against each other.

Of course though, things didn't go as planned. GSP was training for the Diaz fight when he tore his ACL. He would be out for a year before coming back and defeating interim champion Carlos Condit. Condit won the title by defeating Diaz. After that fight Diaz was then suspended by the Las Vegas Athletic Commission for a year for testing positive for marijuana metabolites during his post fight drug test.

All the while a bearded wrestler from Pennsylvania and his left hook were causing all kinds of trouble. In the time of GSP's injury and the interim situation was going on, Johny Hendricks was making a name for himself. He knocked out Jon Fitch in 12 seconds, beat Josh Koscheck, and knocked Martin Kampmann across the Octagon in less than a minute.

Where a lot of fans stood was if it wasn't a superfight, then they wanted Hendricks against GSP. GSP, however, saw it differently. Whatever Diaz had drudged up so many months ago was still burning inside the 170 lb. Francophone. GSP wanted the Diaz fight, and well, the UFC and Dana White agreed to give one of their top fighters and earners what he wanted. We don't need no stinkin' rankings!

Hendricks was perturbed. Fans were iffy on Diaz getting the title shot. People saw Nick's bro Nate get taken down again and again by Benson Henderson and expected this fight to be a carbon copy of that.

Then, a simple, standard conference call completely erased everyone's collective memory.

Now what we have is a highly tense fight that can be talked about in a million different angles. There's been soundbites and Twitter hashtags. New commercials have been cut and I'm sure the UFC brass is already upping the estimated pay-per-view buys. This is marketing even the slickest of marketers at the UFC could have done. There is only one reason, and that's Nick Diaz.

Diaz is as interesting a character study as you will find in the UFC. No one appears to really know what drives him, what motivates him to act the way he does or why? Is it anxiety? Is he jealous of the success of a guy like GSP? His erratic behavior is so uncontrolled it almost appears to be controlled. As a person he always seemed to be more introverted and not interested in the glitz and glamour of fighting because basically he feels he's never had any of that. He complains about lack of sponsorship, turning to boxing to get paid more, or people just constantly hating on him.

Is what Diaz portrays on the camera just as 100% true and authentic as it gets, or does he have any concept that cultivating this bad boy image (a la Floyd Mayweather) is some of the best marketing one can do?

In a verbal attack on GSP that was as voluminous as his stirkes Diaz went off - spouting emotions from respecting GSP to being insanely jealous of him. His reactions took everyone, including GSP, off guard. Just deciphering the point of what Diaz was saying is tough enough - let alone listening to him speak. His words go a million miles a minute, and he doesn't seem to take as much as a breath let alone think to filter his words before saying them.

What Diaz is ultimately getting at though is himself. When people cannot filter themselves, what ultimately comes out is a reflection on themselves and how they feel. Diaz probably does think GSP is pampered, but that's not meant to be a knock on the champ. Diaz says that would be "nice" if he could have it. He's saying he isn't getting the GSP money and is still struggling. He'd like to be that, but he isn't and in his mind I'm sure he knows he never will be that kind of guy.

But ultimately, that's not what makes Nick Diaz Nick Diaz. His comments may serve some kind of internal purpose for his actions: motivation or aggravating the champ so he makes bad decisions during the fight. That seems a little too easy for Diaz. The reason he can act aloof or irresponsible is because he's trying to figure himself out. He wants to know why GSP is there and he's here. Or why this "pampered" guy gets more respect and love from fans than a guy like himself who is anything but pampered. The word self-destructive comes to mind, but that's too harsh. Diaz doesn't appear to be personally harmful ... maybe only professionally. He appears to be a person that just functions better when things aren't going right. When he's not getting paid or being disrespected or not on the right side of a judges' decision.

His head trainer Caesar Gracie certainly has no idea what to expect from Diaz, but in the UFC Countdown for 158, he said that Nick is just a person that needs adversity. If something is perfect, he'll find a way to mess it up. Well, GSP is near perfect. Come Saturday, Nick Diaz will find a way to mess that up too.

BREAKDOWN

If there's ever been a GSP fight better geared to be a "GSP fight" it's this one. GSP has struggled to finish fighters, even though he has dominated in all of his victories. It would seem unlikely that GSP would be able to submit or knock out the steel chinned/willed Diaz. Diaz won't quit outside of some kind of mental breakdown inside the Octagon. And both guys cardio can go for miles.

One doesn't have to watch every Nick Diaz fight to try to figure out his strategy because it's the same. It's always the same. Game plan and Nick Diaz don't jive together. Out of pure stubbornness Diaz would prefer to just fight his fight. Walk forward, not check leg kicks, taunt, and wait to unload a fury of punches. What Diaz does that I find most interesting is that if he does engage GSP in a back and forth he throws a lot of punches. A lot of them are rather slow and just lightly slapping or hitting his opponent, but when you watch on replay mixed in with these light shots are whipping jabs and hooks that break through an opponents defense when the opponent least expects it. With his long frame and excellent boxing, Diaz can catch anyone off guard.

I'm guessing GSP knows this, and GSP will work the leg kicks and take downs to grind Diaz down. GSP does bring something new to the table every time he fights, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him utilize a lot of leg kicks to neutralize Diaz's striking as well as keep him at bay. Diaz will have to work hard to corner GSP in order to start striking with him, as well as being vigilant of any takedown attempt. Diaz might be confident off his back, but that's not where you want to be against GSP for long spells of time.

The whole dark place thing with GSP is being blown out of proportion a little bit. Sure it's a nice thing to type or say to bring up cheap thrills, but the one thing GSP fears most is losing the title. He might be a bit more aggressive to finish the fight, but he's not walking into a Diaz haymaker. GSP was amped up against Koscheck and BJ Penn II - both of which went significantly in the champs favor. If anything, this dark place is a place where GSP goes every time he fights and a little extra dark energy will only help him.

As predictable as it sounds: GSP by decision.