Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 12

Dallas Clark's OT TD capped probably the greatest gambling moment of my life. (Getty)


FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

No one likes to hear about gambling wins. Gambling losses are usually much more pleasurable in a schadenfreude kind of way than how someone hit on their 4 team parlay, but I feel I must jot this particular gambling win down in the annals of history so that I can reflect on this when I'm old and gray. What occurred on Sunday might just be the apex of my gambling life.

Anyone that gambles on sports knows the feeling of sitting on your couch staring at all of the games going on and realizing your 3 team parlay is dead and buried. You have about 20 minutes to mull over whether to double down and try to make your money back in the afternoon games, or just cut your losses.

I was pondering this on Sunday probably the same time my younger brother was placing bets for the afternoon games.

We've both gambled on football for a bit. I'm less intense about it than he is. I'll use www.sportsbook.ag, while he has a bookie. I'll usually bet less money than he does, but we do enjoy it and as disturbing as it sounds, it's a good way to stay in touch. We will text or call Sunday morning to discuss games we like and games we don't. Get another perspective on things and see if we come to an agreement on teasers or parlays that could work out for us.

Most of the time we go our own way, but on Sunday we came to an agreement on a 3 team parlay.

Our bet was as follows:

Eagles/Redskins under 45 points
Packers (-3)
Bucs (+1.5); although I think my brother got them as a pick-em

There's nothing Earth shattering about those picks, but how they came to win is what makes this bet perhaps the gambling apex of our lives.

**I'm sure there are real gamblers out there who spend thousands of dollars a week on bets, have won more money than I'll ever see and so on and so forth, but this is for me and my casual betting self. 
The bad news is, that it's never a good thing to realize the moment you hit your apex in anything. By defnition it's all down hill from here. The good news is, with gambling, you can never be exactly sure. The best gambling moment of your life will always be in hindsight, less you win Powerball and collect a couple hundred million dollars. I can sit here right now, and say, yes, that's probably my gambling apex, but I have no idea. There could be a 5 team teaser in my future or...even who knows what kind of gambling options will even be available 10 years from now? This may be a drop in the bucket...at least that's what I have to tell myself to continue gambling and having fun doing it.

That does not apply for your sexual apex. If you're just a regular guy, then I'm pretty sure most of us know exactly when our sexual apex hit. A moment where, yes, it may not get better than this. Like, if you somehow find yourself in bed with Mila Kunis, it's probably time to jump off a high building (John Mayer need not take note of this).

For some the sexual apex is more obscure, or in reality not much of an apex, but a high note. A blip on the fooling around radar. For others it's a thunderous body slam that rocks your world forever. A friend told me that he knows a guy that knows a guy that took a certain famous actresses virginity while they were in high school. They went to prom together and there's photographic evidence of that. Whether they went all the way, well, I'm not cracking open an investigation. But if you're that guy and you got it on with this B-list actress, then where do you go from there? It's not like you're going to meet Kate Upton at the supermarket. For the rest of your life, that will be - without a doubt - your sexual calling card.

Dates may not seem as sweet, the allure of a woman might be limited to the fact that she hasn't starred in movies and TV shows, or let's face it, you may just not nab a better looking chick for the rest of your life.

So the good news is: I've never had sex with an any letter actress and I can still pretend my gambling apex hasn't happened. Go gambling!

Like most things this season, unfortunately, the outcome of the Eagles game was never in doubt. The Skins were on cruise control, and this Eagles offense has put up more than 20 points only 3 times all year. Final score WAS 31 Eagles 6.

However, the other two games looked like lost causes. The Packers had been struggling most of the day against Detroit, and the Bucs were down 10 against the Panthers with 6:00 minutes left.

When Doug Martin fumbled at the goal line with at the end of the 3rd quarter leading to a Panthers TD drive, I'd say things were just about sunk.

On the subsequent Bucs drive, they made a 40 yard field goal courtesy of Connor Barth, making it 21-13 with 4:03 remaining in the game.

My brother and I were both thinking that Cam Newton owed us a pick 6, as he hadn't thrown an INT all game, but that was not in the cards. We did get something positive, which was a punt after the Panthers had run off 3:01 of game time. The legendary Josh Freeman had the ball with 1:02 remaining in the 4th quarter, down 8.

Meanwhile, in Green Bay, the Packers had taken the lead from the Lions. An Aaron Rodgers led 82 yard drive ended in a Randall Cobb floating TD pass (his 7th TD catch of the year, by the way). The next Lions possession was lost on downs and netted -5 yards. The Pack were up with 1:19 left in the 4th quarters.

Back in Tampa, Josh Freeman had no timeouts and needed a TD. What happened next was a 7 play 80 yard TD drive that lasted all of 50 seconds. Freeman's TD pass to Vincent Jackson was a laser between three Carolina defenders.

While Freeman was doing his thing, the Packers had run out the clock the best they could. With 19 seconds left they kicked a field goal to go up 24-20. In real life, this served to force the Lions to have to score a TD, but it was pretty insignificant. How insignificant? I couldn't even find a picture of the field goal kick on ESPN's game wrap. In gambling life, the Packers had covered, and Mason Crosby owed everyone that bet on the Packers as he had missed his previous 2 field goal opportunities that day.

So now, in the span of 4 minutes of NFL game time, our bet had gone from dead to very much alive. The Eagles/Skins and the Packers were in the books. The Bucs had just made an improbably drive, but still needed the two point conversion to force overtime. Freeman dropped back and found his best friend (and now, probably mine) Jackson on a slant for the conversion. We were going to overtime.

The Bucs got the ball first, which under the new rules, doesn't mean a whole lot, unless you score a TD. They were again on their own 20 with 80 yards of grass to go. Huh, some deja vu for Josh.

He had his timeouts now and could utilize Martin as a result. The Panthers were reeling and after some big Martin runs, Freeman was able to ice the cake with a 15 yard pass to Dallas Clark. Touchdown! Bucs win! Our parlay wins!

From losing hope for a day to having a complete turnaround in about 8 minutes of NFL game time with all of those games going on simultaneously was crazy, crazy, crazy. My life gambling bar is set pretty high. I'll probably never put $10,000 on black or be in a high stakes baccarat game like James Bond, so I guess the goal now is to somehow top this one.

I have a feeling I'll fall short a good amount of times.

Onto some adds for Week 12. As playoffs near, injuries have been a big part of the narrative last week as well as this one. However, this week, some bigger fantasy impact players took a tumble. As I've mentioned most times this season, just because a back-up gets the starting job, it's not a reason to jump all over him. There are always good back-up and just back-ups.

I'm a very important person! (philly.com)

Bryce Brown, RB - PHI (5% owned) CAR

Bryce Brown is a rookie running back for Philadelphia. Something else you may know about him is that he was taken in the 7th round. You might even know he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine. Here's something you may not know, coming out of college, he was ranked higher than Trent Richardson and Matt Barkley which makes sense because he was the top recruit in all of high school football his Senior year. So yeah, he was a big deal back in the day. To say he has the pedigree would be an overstatement. He transferred to Kansas St. after a year at Tennessee, then had a multitude of issues that completely derailed his once promising career. With LeSean McCoy getting a concussion late Sunday, there's no reason the Eagles should bring him back Monday against Carolina, and they should probably sit McCoy longer than that.

Brown has yet to prove himself above the high school level and will be running behind a horrible offensive line, but against a weak defense. Monday Night seems like an interesting time for Brown to shine and let people know who he is.

Lance Ball, RB - DEN (2%) @KC

Another injury knocked Willis McGahee out for most likely the rest of the season with an MCL tear. The play here is Ronnie Hillman, but I profiled him back in Week 4 as an add, so for the sake of repeating myself, Lance Ball is the other option in Denver. With Denver's offense the way it is and Philadelphia likely plugging McCoy back as soon as he's healthy, Hillman is the big free agent this week.

Justin Blackmon, WR - JAX (27%) TEN

Blackmon was late arriving to the 2012 rookie bonanza, but he kicked in the door and made sure people took notice. It's interesting what will happen when a wide receiver has a quarterback that actually throws the football and takes chances. Some of Blackmon's biggest plays, including an overturned TD catch due to a holding penalty were jump balls that Chad Henne threw up there for him. Blackmon was a high pick for a reason. He has the physicality that can set him apart from a big possession receiver.

With his titanic 236 yds 1 TD performance, the stock will be high for Blackmon, but that game against the Texans was just screwy. With Henne keeping the job I like Blackmon a bit more moving forward, but I won't expect any repeat performances.

Julian Edelman, WR - NE (4%) @NYJ

The biggest injury of the weekend was Rob Gronkowski breaking his forearm. The TD machine was injured on the 59th point of the game. An extra point. Grand.

There will obviously be a redistribution of looks in New England, but with Aaron Hernandez finally due back from his high ankle sprain, the Pats may not lose much of a step. One player that has come on recently has been Edelman. he had a big week last week and unless the Pats have a lot of confidence in Visanthe Schancoe, any leftovers could be Edelman's for the taking.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Jalon Parmalee, RB - JAX (6%) TEN

We've been here with Rashad Jennings and we're still here looking to replace Maurice Jones-Drew. Parmalee isn't the answer just like Jennings wasn't. Only if you're desperate should you add Parmalee.


THE 1%

Shane Vereen, RB - NE (6%) @NYJ

A better RB option would be Vereen. The offensive benefits are clear, and Bill Belichick has shown that although Stevan Ridley is the starter, there's still room for Vereen.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI: Prop Joe

I'm Proposition Joe. You fuck with me, I'll kill your whole family.
For most people the Super Bowl is an excuse. An excuse to pretend to care about football, an excuse to have a party, an excuse to drink, an excuse to gamble, and an excuse to hope for passing glances at Gisele watching from a luxury box. If you need an excuse for any of those things, I feel bad for you.
Perhaps the best part about Prop Joe isn't that he's the coolest character in the Wire. He isn't even in the Top 5, but people all have nothing but positive things to say about him. The reason is that he's a character that can be put in any video game ever made. He's reassuring, and a guy that can get you (or your video game character) what you need. I can easily picture stopping into his mushroom hut to buy a womp womp in Mario Party or purchasing armor from him in Dragon Age or mimicking his dancing in Dance Dance Revolution. Think of any video game you can and Prop Joe fits in. 
But what about those who aren't Giants or Pats fans? The tried and true football fans whose teams fell barely short, disappointingly short, or were never close? To add some joy to this game for people that obsess about football, there are prop bets. You can bet on virtually every aspect of the Super Bowl. I picked some nice ones to pay attention to. All lines are courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.


Coin Toss 
Heads  -101
Tails  -101

Bet: Tails never fails.


Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off
Giants  -220
Patriots  170

Bet: Pats don't want the ball first. The Giants could trip things up by deferring if they win, but don't mess with success. Giants get the ball.


Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times w/o Other Team
Scoring (Conversions Excluded) 
Yes  -170
No  140

Bet: Seem like odd odds? Don't be fooled. A team scoring 3 times in a row is more common than you think. Stay away.


First Touchdown of the Game will be 
Passing Touchdown -200
Any Other Touchdown 160

Bet: While I think the first TD will be passing, pretty favorable odds if one of these teams can rush, QB sneak, defensive turnover, or kick/punt return their way to the end zone.


Jersey Number of Player to Score First Touchdown in Super 
Bowl XLVI 
Jersey Number o80.5(-110)
Jersey Number u80.5(-120)

Bet: The play makers in this game are all receivers. Whatever you heard about Rob Gronkowski's (#87) injury leading up to the game, rest assured he'll have enough adrenaline going to be around for the first TD.


Eli Manning - Will he Throw a 3rd Quarter Touchdown Pass - 
Must Play 
Yes  160
No  -200

Bet: Now, the Pats will probably be getting the ball out of halftime, and Madonna's 30 minute halftime show won't help, but seems like good odds to take.


Ahmad Bradshaw - Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt - Must 
Play (No Rush Attempt - Under is Winner) 
Yards on 1st Attempt o3.5(+105)
Yards on 1st Attempt u3.5(-135)

Bet: The Giants have a good play action game, and while the Pats D has been playoff strong, it's not too much to ask Bradshaw to bust off a 4 yard carry for his first touch.


Brandon Jacobs - Will he Play Soft - Must Play (debatable) 
Yes  180
No  -240

Bet: Ok, I made that up. How there isn't a highlight every game of Jacobs demolishing some defensive back is a mystery to me. 


Henry Hynoski - Total Rushing + Receiving Yards - Must Play 
(No Rush Attempt or No Reception - Under is Winner) 
Rushing+Receiving Yards o4.5(-130)
Rushing+Receiving Yards u4.5(Even)

Bet: This is the Gary Russell Award pick from Cousin Sal on the BS Report. Bascially if Hynoski touches the ball, you win. We need to start getting into some more dumber bets.


Victor Cruz - Will he Score a Touchdown - Must Play 
Yes  120
No  -150

Bet: I don't like Victor Cruz from an overall production standpoint in the Super Bowl. Outside of some spectacular plays, teams have sort have made him disappear from time to time. He's like a greater version of Torrey Smith. But + odds that he'll score a touchdown? Sure.



Tom Brady - Total Passing Yards - Must Play 
Total Passing Yards o320.5(-115)
Total Passing Yards u320.5(-115)

Bet: Not great odds, but this is an easy under. If Tom Terrific does throw for over 320, the Pats are losing.



Tom Brady - Will he Score a RUSHING Touchdown - Must Play 
Yes  450
No  -700

Bet: Don't knock Brady's sneak game. He showed in Baltimore he'll do what it takes to get those 6 points. And if you think he wouldn't be inclined to put the game away by jumping into the end zone and getting revenge on the team that gave him his greatest defeat ever...well, you don't know Tom Brady.



Deion Branch - Will he Score a Touchdown - Must Play
Yes  175
No  -220

Bet: He's a former Super Bowl MVP. Belichick loves this symmetry stuff.


Rob Gronkowski - Will he Score a Touchdown in the 1st Half - 
Must Play 
Yes  160
No  -200

Bet: If he does score, it'll be a 1st Half score.


Aaron Hernandez - Total Receptions - Must Play (No 
Receptions - Under is Winner) 
Receptions  o5.5(-115)
Receptions  u5.5(-115)

Bet: I'm not guaranteeing if Gronk is less than 100% Hernandez is just going to turn in a Gronk like performance. If the Giants can have Antrel Rolle focus on Hernandez, that will cause some difficulties. But the tightends are just too vital to the Pats offense that I can't see Hernandez pulling in less than 6 receptions.


Chad Ochocinco - Will He Have At Least 1 Reception - Must 
Play 
Yes  120
No  -150

Bet: No. Just no. Ocho has been a non-factor all year. Keep in mind that this was a player, when he was Chad Johnson, that was putting together a Hall of Fame resume. Now, he's a laughable bet with really next to no chance of making an impact positive impact in the Super Bowl! He can't learn the playbook, know where to be on the field, and aside from buying the team Dr. Dre Beats headphones, really has done nothing. With how his career is unraveling along with Terrell Owens, make note you "Give me the Damn Ball" receivers. Your time is nigh.


Who Will Have More on Feb 5th 2012 - Listed Players Must 
Play (Barclays Premier League) 
Wayne Rooney (Manchester United) Goals
(Soccer)  0(+220)
Brandon Jacobs (Giants) Touchdowns 0(-300)

Bet: Rooney has been off his game, but with Man U in a tie for first in the Premier League with Man City against a wobbly Chelsea squad, I could see #10 hitting the back of the net. Now if Jacobs does score, you're in trouble.


Super Bowl XLVI MVP (All Bets Action) (Dead Heat Rule 
Applies)
Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) 8-1
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) 15-1

Bet: It's too easy/boring to pick QB's so I'm not going to do that. It's not easy to dethrone the QB as MVP if you're a TE, but if Gronk can have a Gronk game, paired with his injury buzz; that's an MVP. Terrell Owens would have won MVP if the Eagles, you know, won the game. Bradshaw has been getting dumped on by a lot of odds makers, but he's a nice potential MVP. Truth be told, I would have liked to vote for a Giants defensive lineman like Osi Umenyiora who always makes big plays, but all I could get were 6-1 odds in the Field category. No thanks.


Player to score the 1st 
Touchdown (All Bets Action)
Jake Ballard (Giants) 20-1
Julian Edelman (Patriots) 40-1

Bet: Ah, the bet that gave me my biggest money win in my prop gambling life. Jordy Nelson last year (+1500). Normally for this I like to go with double digit odds because no one really knows, and who's going to be excited winning a 1st TD bet with Hakeem Nicks? I was on the Manningham bet bus, but with all the buzz of him being covered by Julian Edelman, I feel like it's too over done. So I'm taking higher odds and Jake Ballard. Speaking of Edelman, he catches, he returns kicks, he runs a little, and he's playing defense! That's a lot of ways to score a TD.


Tom Brady (Patriots) Total Passing Yards in Super Bowl XLVI
241-260 Passing Yards 10-1

Bet: There's no real reason to suspect Brady will go off in this game. He can manage it, have good numbers, no turnovers and win. But throwing for 350 yards? That would be surprising. This range of passing yards is the last before they drop to 8-1 and back up at the 341 passing yard mark.


Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants) Total Rushing Yards in Super Bowl 
XLVI
151-160 Rushing Yards 100-1
161-170 Rushing Yards 100-1
171-185 Rushing Yards 100-1
186-200 Rushing Yards 100-1
201 or More Rushing Yards 100-1

Bet: We're going roulette style on this one. Best 100-1 odds you'll find this year. Bradshaw gets going early, busts a couple big early runs and a late one to put the game away? Take your lump sum amount and spread it out to every range, mayyyyybe stopping at 186 and above, but at 100-1, why not?

Unfortunately I can't access the more ridiculous novelty prop bets. But from what I can remember I like: Kelly Clarkson and the under on the National Anthem, Kelly Clarkson at no mid-drift exposed (lock of the game), Madonna not wearing a jersey during the halftime show, the Gatorade bath will be blue, and the MVP will thank his teammates first.

As for the actual game? Well as an Eagles fan, I'm a loser either way, but if it's between Eli getting his second and Tom getting his fourth, I'd like the Pats to win. Sadly, it may play out differently.

Giants 31 Patriots 27

Gambling is a 27 point favorite to beat your humble narrator.