Showing posts with label Jay Cutler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jay Cutler. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 16

Jamaal Charles got to know the end zone very well on Sunday. (GETTY)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.PLAYOFF EDITION: We're not focusing on lower % owned players, but those with choice match-ups for the playoffs.


Thursday night seems like a long time ago, but for many fantasy owners it was the beginning of a bad, bad week. The elite group of fantasy points hit men known as the Denver Broncos fell on their face Thursday night at home against the San Diego Chargers. As the clock ticked down on the first game for virtually everyone in the fantasy playoffs, Peyton Manning had tallied 18.56 fantasy points. The second highest fantasy point scorer for Denver was the 1% owned Andre Caldwell at 17.90 points. As for all those other elite fantasy options the Broncos trot out on the field on a weekly basis their point totals went as follows:

Knowshon Moreno: 5.50
Julius Thomas: 4.90
Montee Ball: 4.80
Demariyus Thomas: 4.50
Eric Decker: 4.20

And, I'm all like ...




Sure, FAABulous Week 15 pick Ryan Mathews had a great game, but that's not what I signed up for when I put my life in the hands of a random assortment of football players back in August! How can a squadron of world beaters like the Broncos lay such a goose egg right when it matters? Well, that's fantasy football. As frustrating and annoying as that game was to watch, Sunday had a lot more surprises in store for us.

Here's a quick overview of what happened on Sunday.

The best scoring quarterbacks of the week were Nick Foles (fine), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Matt Cassel, Matt Flynn, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, EJ Manuel, and Jay Cutler.

The best RUNNER was Matt Asiata who had a meaty 1.7 YPC but of course scored 3 TD's.

The best receiver was a running back.

The best tight end on the planet had his fantasy output doubled by Clay Harbor ... and if you started Jeff Cumberland, Mychal Rivera, or Cory Harkey you would have more than tripled Jimmy Graham's production!

Two kickers scored more than 20 points.

And finally, two defenses let up 31 points or more, but still got 19.00 fantasy points.

It was an insane weekend. The silver lining in all of that mess was that it wasn't likely you were facing many of those quarterbacks and Asiata was still on waivers by the time he was stumbling into the paint for his 3rd TD of the game. The one player that truly made or broke your fantasy dreams was Jamaal Charles.

Charles etched his name into the record books on Sunday and left an indelible mark on fantasy football forever after his 51.50 fantasy point effort. In a laughable display of Raider defense, Charles was able to break three huge screen passes (49, 39, 71) along with another 16-yard catch and 1-yard run for 215 total yards and 5 TD's.

If you were facing a Charles led team, you probably felt like ...

Poor punter :(

Yes, it was a historic performance not only in numbers, but in time of the year. To do this in a decided fantasy football playoff week is amazing. ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft summarizes everything beautifully here.

Obviously after a game like this, Charles is going to be at the forefront of a lot of talk. Fantasy MVP, next year's No. 1 overall fantasy pick, real life NFL MVP, and so on. But I wanted to take a moment to reflect on Charles' performance on Sunday not as him throwing his hat into the fantasy MVP ring, but as an exclamation point to a fantastic year that should end on a high note this Sunday against a lowly Colts defense.

Charles has been the most consistent fantasy star this year. He was my #5 ranked RB coming into the season, which was probably a little higher than the average ranking. ESPN has his ADP entering into the year at #6. Next year, he's assuredly a Top 3 pick, but his career at this point has been anything but consistent. He was bound for super stardom before he tore his ACL in Week 2 of the 2011 season, and last year in Kansas City, then head coach Romeo Crennel wanted to limit his touches so he didn't get hurt again. After all, that's how to prevent ACL tears, right?

Well, as I mentioned in my running back rankings, the two wild cards this year were LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. Namely because they were both getting new offensive minded coaches. It's pretty clear that they were picking up what Andy Reid was throwing down in Kansas City; same goes for Reid's replacement in Philadelphia, Chip Kelly. Using Charles was the best thing for him. Not just driving him between the tackles, but implementing Reid's trademark screen passing game. Getting him open in space so he can avoid getting roughed up every time he gets the ball, oh, and you might want to take a note Romeo, but utilizing one of Charles' elite skills.

This is the kind of Jamaal Charles we should see on the football field, and he is cashing in on his immense talent. The 26-year-old still has more room to grow, and while he'll always be remembered fondly by his 2013 fantasy owners, there are some years ahead he can spread to joy to others in 2014 and beyond.

For many people, this is the championship week, and likely the last week I'll do previews, so best of luck with everything. It's been a crazy fantasy year, but I will be back with my year end wrap-up for FAABulous looking at my hits and misses.

Delanie Walker is a weapon in the suddenly aggressive Titans' pass game. (rantsports.com)

QB - Nick Foles, PHI v +Chicago Bears, Colin Kaepernick, SF v +Atlanta Falcons 

More Nick Foles. You know what to do with him. Kaepernick on the other hand has probably been the most disappointing QB this year. Whether it's Jim Harbaugh's decision to stop running Kaep that much or it's just a learning curve, the 2nd year starter has not lived up to expectations. The 49ers have shown some signs of life and getting Michael Crabtree back has helped, so there is an opportunity for a big game against the defeated Falcons.

If you're desperate: Andy Dalton, CIN v +Minnesota Vikings, Jay Cutler, CHI @ +Philadelphia Eagles  

These look good on paper, but when it comes to Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler you just never know. I'm rather surprised that many people are looking past Cutler's fleas after one decent performance back from his injury. The Eagles had their toast buttered by Matt Cassel last week, but you have to imagine their performance will more resemble how the team has played in previous weeks - Dallas victory or not - on Sunday night. But I get it with Cutler. If the Eagles push the pace, then that's more opportunities for Cutler to launch it to the best WR tandem in football, but that also increases his opportunities to make a mistake. Cutler's season high for fantasy points is 23.02. Tread lightly.

RB - Jamaal Charles, KC v +Indianapolis Colts, Matt Forte, CHI @ +Philadelphia Eagles  

Yep, that's right don't bench Jamaal Charles. You're welcome. Overall though this is a hat tip to two of the most consistent fantasy players this year. In head to head match ups, there is no denying the comfort of not having any bum performances by your top tailback.

If you're desperate: Reggie Bush, DET v +New York Giants, Ben Tate, HOU v +Denver Broncos 

It's hard to trust Matt Stafford after watching that game last week. He looked atrocious, and he certainly cost some of his owners a playoff win. Bush was able to battle back from a calf injury to look explosive and productive. Stafford will always air it out to Calvin, but it would make sense for the Lions to try to keep his errors in check by relying heavlily on Bush.

The Texans season was over a dozen weeks ago. What a train wreck. However, let's keep in mind that Mr. Ben Tate has put together a great season filling in for Adrian Foster as well as playing for that fat contract he's looking to land in the off-season. All systems are a go for Tate to get carries even if the Texans are down 100.

UPDATE: I don't normally do this, but Ben Tate broke another rib and hours ago was put on IR. Dennis Johnson is the Texan to add, but I'll toss some love towards Fred Jackson, BUF @ +Miami Dolphins 

WR - Chicago Bears receivers, Demaryius Thomas, DEN v +Houston Texans, Julian Edelman, NE v +Baltimore Ravens, Antonio Brown, PIT v GB

Alshon, always and forever.


People are worried that the Broncos will be up 70 and halftime and rest everyone. Well, guess what? If they score 70 by halftime, someone still catches those touchdowns. This feels like a Demaryius game. He had a clunker last week, but before that consistently has gotten to either 100 yards, a TD or both. He's a safe play even if Wes Welker is back.

Let's also hail Mini-tron, Julian Edelman. I was a tentative believer in him early on, but he's really come along as a Tom Brady favorite. Sure, it took his star tight end to get injured yet again, his top RB to be benched, and Danny Amendola to be completely untrustworthy to happen, but still.

And Antonio Brown continues to be the most underappreicated offensive player in football.

If you're desperate: Riley Cooper, PHI v CHI, Kendall Wright, TEN @ +Jacksonville Jaguars

People are gaga about the Bears' offensive possibilities, but the Eagles' offense is pretty good too. Cooper is due.

Fear Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Titans. It's almost like they can't wait to cut Chris Johnson when the year is over.

TE - Julius Thomas, DEN v +Houston Texans, Delanie Walker, TEN @ +Jacksonville Jaguars  

Thomas hasn't been his usual self since his injury, but after two games back in action I think he's ready to go. The Broncos are looking to make a statement and they're not going to be happy or tentative heading to Houston. TD's galore.

Delanie Walker is a fave of mine this year. I loved him last week as a TE play, and with Jordan Cameron getting diagnosed with a concussion on Monday, I like Walker even more.

If you're desperate: Zach Miller, SEA v +Arizona Cardinals, Tyler Eifert, CIN v +Minnesota Vikings 

Miller has not come through for me, but I'm not one to quit on a guy so fast. The Cardinals have a solid defense, and I'm not sure how much damage the Seahawks receivers can do against Patrick Peterson's group. I would expect Miller to be one of the more available options for Russell Wilson.

Eifert might be sliding into starting TE duties against Minnesota, and that's a great thing.

K - Phil Dawson, SF v +Atlanta Falcons, Alex Henery, PHI v CHI

DEF - Kansas City v +Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions v +New York Giants     

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 10

Aaron Rodgers in street clothes is not what fantasy owners wanted to see Monday night. (nbcsports.com)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Sometimes I will ask myself why not just write FAABulous on Monday? I usually have more time, and this usually lousy Monday Night Football game is what's keeping me from getting this article up faster. It's a petty complaint I have, but it's quickly rebuffed as I realize things can happen on Monday Night. Not necessarily fantasy altering, but little nuggets here or there. 

Well last night, during an actually interesting MNF game, something very significant happened. On the first drive of the game, Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers was sacked and fell on his non-throwing shoulder. He did not return to the game.

There was growing concern this morning. ESPN's omnipotent Adam Schefter just reported that Rodgers has a fractured collar bone and will miss 3 weeks. Not as horrible a blow as many were thinking, but something that requires immediate attention. Gone is a favorable match-up for Rodgers against the Philadelphia Eagles, and with Seneca Wallace as the back-up there's nothing to see here.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago with a slew of injuries all over the field, that having depth is important. Now with a three week absence, and typically owners of the best fantasy quarterback not focusing too much on a QB2 it's time to attack the waiver wire. There's one guy I talked about for the past three weeks that could be of service, but there's also an unlikely candidate that was at Lambeau Monday night.


Jay Cutler says he'll be back 3 weeks ahead of schedule and start Week 10. (bleacherreport.com)
Jay Cutler, QB - CHI (31% owned) v DET

Cutler is reportedly coming back next week. I mentioned last week, that I Trust in Trestman so I was rewarded with a  stellar performance by Josh McCown. Both are intriguing options if you are a Rodgers owner, but you can get creative as Yahoo!'s Andy Behrens tweeted out last night.


Now that it is being reported that Rodgers is only out for 3 weeks, this is still useful info, but I doubt anyone has the FAAB/waiver priority to snag both quarterbacks.


Jake Locker, QB - TEN (37%) +Jacksonville Jaguars 

The beauty about Locker is that he has a high floor. The only time he put up less than double digit points was Week 1 against the Steelers. He doesn't turn the ball over and can run a little. These all equate to a safe 12-15 fantasy points. If you're team is stacked and you're confident in your offense, Locker presents a conservative add.

Case Keenum, QB - HOU (11%) @ ARZ

Case Keenum! Kevin Kolb has nothing on you! I gave Keenum a brief mention last week, but he deserves a full couple of sentences now. I'll say this, Keenum is why I dislike college football. The guy is the all-time leader in passing yards (by 2,000 yards by the way) and he can barely get an NFL job. I mean look at this list of Hall of Famers. Liking college football and liking the NFL is a non-sequitur. They play the same sport by name and there might be some similar positions and rules, but everything else is a disconnect. Keenum has looked good though, but he has a tough match-up in Arizona.

Andre Brown, RB - NYG (37%) v OAK

He's ready to be activated, but I would expect him to get going a bit slowly. Brown was basically the same as David Wilson statistically last year, but with Peyton Hillis still operating somewhat well, there's no push to get Brown going from day one. 

Riley Cooper, WR - PHI (9%) @GB

Foles is presumably starting next week in Green Bay, and he and Cooper have a great relationship on the field and it's shown. The two biggest games of his career have been with Foles under center, and you can never overlook how a new quarterback runs an offense. His tendencies and ability can open the door for some potential solid fantasy plays.  Also, he has to be breathing a sigh of relief that he's no longer the most hated player in the NFL. Although, I wouldn't exactly be sending Richie Incognito a thank you card.

TE du jour

One of the more overlooked injuries in a crazy week of shenanigans on and off the field is Kyle Rudolph. He hasn't been as good as advertised, but at this point with him out and anyone that owns him was probably twiddling their thumbs and hesitant to make a move, well now is the time. I mention a lot of TE here, so without beating a dead horse, there are two TE widely available in my Persons of Interest section I would go after. 


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Mike Brown, WR - JAX (11%) v TEN

So, Justin Blackmon gets suspended again for drugs and now everyone is flocking to Mike Brown? No. Just no. Oh, and by the way, if anyone ever complains about how Dez Bryant got passed on by all of these teams, this is the reason. Blackmon was selected 5th overall and has certainly been a bigger headache than he's worth for the Jaguars. 

THE 1%

Andrew Hawkins, WR - CIN (2%) +Baltimore Ravens 
FAABulous favorite Andrew Hawkins is back! He can fit in perfectly for what the Bengals need as a slot receiver who can take short passes and make big plays out of them. Depending on his health and what Marvin Lewis wants to do with Gio Bernard, this could be a great add.

And yes, we are at the point of the year where I'm upping the ownership to less than 5%.

PERSONS OF INTEREST

Nick Foles, QB - PHI (12%), Chris Ivory, NYJ - RB (45%), Mike Tolbert, RB - CAR (37%), Aaron Dobson, WR - NE (35%), Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (11%), Marlon Brown, WR - BAL (10%), Colby Fleener, TE - IND (50%)

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 11

Week 10 led to a lot of QB injuries and poor performances that probably didn't sink your fantasy team. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

We all know what football is in 2012-2013. There's an increased concern for player safety and specifically concussions. Rules have been put into place, tests have to be administered, and the public consciousness is growing week by week.

The NFL will take credit for this, throwing around how much money they are spending on concussion research, that awareness is high, hell, even in Madden if a player is injured with a concussion he is automatically out for the rest of the game.

While these are all factors in how we are watching this violent sport, and while player safety is the dark cloud on the horizon of the sport of football, the reason all of these procedures are put into place is that while football is the most popular sport in the United States, that also makes it the most lucrative.

There have been plenty of great pieces about how NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has preached player safety out of one side of his mouth, all the while looking to extend the season and schedule, make Thursday through Monday football a reality and keep the NFL money train rolling. Among all of the articles you can find written by a Jason Whitlock or Bill Simmons, the quintessential moment of this money vs. football mess is the New Orleans Saints bounty scandal. In this one story, you get everything from the true violence in football, to the overblown reaction of the NFL, to skirting the facts and Goodell relying on his title as commissioner to serve as a power play to push his agenda.

Well, there's no one that will agree paying players to injure another player is acceptable, there are real questions of what does it really matter, or if the NFL can just fine and suspend players without adequate evidence. The question of does it matter will probably always be up for debate, but the legal system has found that no, you can't just suspend players and serve personal vendettas because you feel like it. There has to be proof. As a result of the fallout of Goodell's hasty actions, his reputation has taken a hit, and his respectability among the players he lords over is at an all-time low. It's something that needs to be addressed moving forward if Goodell is to remain commissioner and a lesson to be learned that the public as well as football players themselves are no dummies. There's unlimited resources available to learn, read up, and formulate an opinion. People won't just fall blindly in line with the NFL because they love the sport or they hear the NFL is funding a lot of brain damage research. Time to focus on improving the reputation of the game, not just making more money from it.

For all the rules and protection the NFL gives its players, especially quarterbacks, that didn't save a lot of them in Week 10. Four starters went down, three to concussions. In order of fantasy relevance, they would be Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith.

The good news, fantasy wise, is that all of the quarterbacks listed are nowhere near elite fantasy players. Roethlisberger is the 13th ranked QB and Vick is 15th. Roethlisberger has been solid, but he's always been a million times more important as a real player than fantasy. As for Vick, well, we know his tale. He hasn't been an explosive fantasy player in 2 years now. His injuries are always a concern, and outside of that 2010 season, he's always been a below average fantasy player minus his rushing numbers, which have been non-existent for those same 2 years. Cutler and Smith are back-up level at best, so odds are your team isn't hurting too badly.

There are some potential fliers to take for each of these players. While Roethlisberger's injury seems to be the most serious, Byron Leftwich carries no fantasy value. But let's take a look at some two back-ups that could bring us some value through the remainder of the season.

Nick Foles has a legitimate shot at the starting job in Philadelphia. (usatoday.com)

Nick Foles, QB - PHI ( 5% owned) @WAS

What makes Foles the top QB to add this week is simple. Above all other back-ups, he has the best chance to keep the job. Michael Vick is out with what coach Andy Reid declared a severe concussion. Vick is already ruled out for Sunday's match-up in Washington, and more likely than not, will not play Monday night the following week versus Carolina. Those are two pretty nice match-ups for the 6'6 6'4 Arizona grad. He's got some offensive weapons around him, but it'll be tough for Foles to avoid getting cracked after every snap as the Eagles have been operating with only one original starting lineman from Week 1. On top of that two of the absolute worst tackles to ever put on an NFL jersey in Demetress Bell and King Dunlap will be blocking for him.

Foles did well in the preseason and despite lacking arm strength has shown an ability to make quick decisions. For his limited time playing on Sunday, he also showed an Eli Manning like propensity to throw into coverage to draw penalties. Not good for fantasy points, but might help him move the ball with more efficiency than Vick was.

Colin Kaepernick, QB - SF (1%) CHI

If I was picking up a QB for one start and one start only, I might side with Kaepernick. Even though he's facing the Bears, Kaepernick has shown a competency playing quarterback, but his most valuable asset is his speed. The Niners have used him in limited packages to showcase his stuff, and while he is passing at a 61.3% completion percentage, he's already run for 3 TDs averaging 7.6 YPC. This won't be a high scoring game with Kaeprenick against the Bears D and Jason Campbell against the Niners D, but there are points to be had.

Jaquizz Rodgers, RB - ATL (37%) ARI

Are the Falcons a fraud of a team? We've seen it with them before. Great regular season team that when the playoffs start and defense and the run game take center stage, the Falcons fade away. Regardless of what success they have in the upcoming playoffs, they are going. It's clear Michael Turner is not viewed as a contributor on offense, and while T.J. Duckett isn't walking through that door, the Falcons need to establish some kind of run game. Rodgers hasn't been carrying the load, but he has been the Falcons most productive RB out of the backfield both rushing and receiving. Unless the Falcons want to repeat errors of postseasons past, they'll need to see what Rodgers can give them. He's an add an hold for the rest of the season.

Ben Tate, RB - HOU (39%) JAX

Houston is in nowhere near the trouble Atlanta is regarding their run game. Houston does look like they'll run away with their division, and that means resting guys like Arian Foster during those final couple of weeks of the season. And if you're Houston and you have Ben Tate, why wouldn't you? Tate has been nursing a hamstring injury the last couple of weeks, but should be back soon. I'd look for his run load to increase in the interim, with the potential to be the top back on the depth chart come Week 16 as Foster rests.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Danario Alexander, WR - SD (5%) @DEN

He had a big game for San Diego and at 6'5 fits the bill for tall Philip Rivers targets, but a lot of Alexander's stats came on an 80 yard TD catch, and he was taking time from the injured Robert Meachem. With Meachem expected back, marginal production can be expected from Alexander moving forward.

THE 1%

Riley Cooper, WR - PHI (0%) @WAS

One of the injuries not covered earlier on was that to Jason Avant, the Eagles sure handed slot receiver. Due to the depth among the Eagles WR core has left Cooper primarily as a special teams ace and 4th WR. Cooper hauled in his 1st TD pass of the season on a rare fade route thrown to him by Vick. If Avant is out, Cooper is a guy Foles has had a lot of reps with and their 2nd string chemistry could pay WR3 dividends.