FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 3

RG III (left) and Aaron Rodgers had two very different Sundays, but for fantasy .. not quite. (msn.foxsports.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

From a football perspective, you'd much rather wake up Tuesday morning and be Aaron Rodgers as opposed to Robert Griffin III. Rodgers led the Packers to their first win of the season by crushing the Washington football club 38-20. Griffin, however, struggled to get anything going for the second straight game, only to see his defense struggle again and put Washington FC in a deep hole. One team kept their division title hopes alive, while the other couldn't be plummeting any faster.

In fantasy however, the difference isn't so vast. In that game Rodgers hurled 4 TD passes and set a franchise record for a single game of passing at 480 yards (beating out .... Matt Flynn's previous franchise record!). Griffin playing the catch up game tossed he second straight 300+ yard passing game and 3 TDs of his own. Overall, for what looked like an absolute beatdown on Sunday turned into only an 11 point difference between Rodgers (34.90 points) and Griffin (23.90 points) in standard Yahoo! fantasy leagues.

In fact, RGIII ended up with the 4th best QB fantasy performance in Week 2. "Beating" other QBs that actually won their games like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Peyton Manning. Yes, for this seemingly out of nowhere performance we can thank garbage time.

Piling up stats in garbage time is no secret amongst fantasy players. Just ask Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson owners last year. There's a certain art to owning a player or players on a bad team, that you know once that defecit grows to double digits, the running and gunning come out. There's really no definitive way to assume a player will garner a lot of garbage time points, but so far RGIII has mastered it.

From Grantland's Bill Barnwell:

The final scores from these past two weeks undersell just how little Washington has had to offer in its opening contests of 2013. Washington was down 24-0 at the end of the first half against the Packers on Sunday, and the Eagles took it to the woodshed with a 26-7 halftime lead last Monday; that's a 43-point halftime gap over the first two games of the year.*

*Also, that 7 points that Washington scored against the Eagles was a defensive touchdown. So Washington's offense has been in a 50-0 hole.

Out of that mess came two very solid RGIII fantasy performances. While no one will mistaken these past two weeks as RGIII playing well, it's worth noting that even though Washington FC might be heading for a rough year, it doesn't mean that the team will be dragging down RGIII or Alfred Morris - for that matter - with them. There's still a lot of fantasy value to be had when you treat your gameplan like Richard Sherman treats, well ... everyone. Aside from the growing injury concerns in the nation's capital, I still view RGIII as a worthwile fantasy play moving forward. It's clear that he is not able or not comfortable running like he used to, but it's also clear that the NFC East has a collection of the worst defenses in all of football. With a slate of games that are sure to be high scoring against poor defenses, RGIII - even without running - could easily finish a top 10 QB barring injury/benching by cashing in on the seemingly gigantic amount of garbage time that will be coming his way. As the season progresses, his health should improve making a top 5 ranking in reach, but Washington as a whole look to not be a competitive team this year.

It may not be pretty on Sunday's, but Tuesday morning is what we're all shooting for.

Eddie Royal has 5 touchdowns already. (wtnh.com)

Among the large amount of significant Week 3 injuries, let's see who is worth our time. Onwards!

Eddie Royal, WR - SD (23%) @ TEN

Sure it was easy to ignore Royal's Week 1 performance, and many people did. Week 2 however caught the attention of everyone. Three touchdowns albeit against the horrid Eagles' secondary established Royal as at least a fantasy bench option moving forward. We've seen the situation before where a breakout game ultimately leads to nothing, but Royal has always had an ability to be productive. He had 91 receptions for 980 yards and 5 TDs in 2008, but since then he hasn't really had steady opportunities. What he's getting in San Diego is just that. New head coach Mike McCoy might not have been counting on Royal when he took over the job, but injuries to Malcolm Floyd and Denario Alexander have given Royal a window of opportunity to succeed. Also, don't sleep on the San Diego offense, McCoy was the offensive coordinator for the Broncos the last two years where he built a highly effective offense behind two of the most drastically different quarterbacks you can find: Tim Tebow and Peyton Manning.


Ryan Broyles, WR - DET (25%), Nate Burleson, WR - DET (10%) +Washington Redskins 

Wide receivers against Washington! All of them! Broyles should make his season debut this week, and I'd expect him to get used to suiting up moving forward.

Isaiah Pead, RB - STL (14%) +Dallas Cowboys 

Daryl Richardson owners, just go get him.

Percy Harvin, WR - SEA (31%) Injured

Word is the medical staff in Seatlle is doing some interesting stuff. Harvin indicated that a Week 7 return isn't out of the question. Seems like a great time to stash him in case. Sure, this could be just a super competitive athlete's optimism, but who knows? If you're looking for an immediate impact guy, Doug Baldwin (8%) is always underrated.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

James Starks, RB - GB (10%) +Cincinnati Bengals 

I said it before in my running back preview, but when it comes to the Packers, I just do not trust them to run the ball affectively. Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion on a finable hit by Washington safety Brandon Merriweather. There'd probably be a lot more bad blood going around if Merriweather didn't get some of his own comeuppance by later suffering a concussion of his own trying to take down Starks in a similar manner. There's certainly not much to work with based on Lacy's touches so far this year. It's difficult to judge him on the 14 carries he had against Seattle, and one 10 yard carry on Sunday doesn't make things any clearer.

If you need a Packers RB, then Starks is your guy. Just keep in mind that his breakout performance took place in 2010's postseason. He's failed to impress since then, and his performance on Sunday was against a clearly overmatched defense who were already defeated once he touched the pigskin. Depending on how long Lacy is out, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers dial up Willis McGahee or Michael Turner. He's taken your FAAB money before. Don't let him do it again.


THE 1%

Andre Ellington, RB - ARZ (1%) @ NO

Rashard Medenhall has probably exceeded expectations thus far for fantasy owners, but Ellington has impressed Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians. It appears Ellington has already taken over as the third down back in Arizona, and the rookie 6th round pick is inching closer to Mendenhall on the depth chart. It would probably take an injury for Ellington to displace Mendenhall, but that's never out of the question.

BOX OFFICE BOOMER

I don't envision this being a recurring section, but for everyone wondering why the Patriots don't go get Brandon Lloyd, well here's a fun fact about what he's up to.

Brandon Lloyd - WR, FA (2%)

Free agent WR Brandon Lloyd stars in an upcoming zombie movie called "After Effect."

Advice: Maybe now we know why Lloyd has rejected inquiries from at least six NFL teams, including the desperate Patriots. He landed a role in this direct-to-DVD movie as Sargent Chuck Lloyd. The movie stars Daniel Baldwin. Lloyd is just 32 years old and posted a 70/966/5 line last year, but he appears done with the NFL.

More: masslive.com

(Rotoworld.com)

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 15

You...are welcome for wi..nning you a spot in your lea...gue's playoffs. - Adrian (espn.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems

There are two things we can confirm after week 14 of the 2012 NFL Season.

1. Adrian Peterson is a man.
2. Fantasy football might be the most unfair game ever conceived.

At this point we should all be entering fantasy playoffs if we aren't there already. The week or two prior to playoffs are almost just as important because in the fickle world of Fantasy Football, most of us are hovering a couple of games over .500 and looking to win out to clinch a spot in the tournament. With so many ponies running down a narrow track, there's going to be bumps, stumbles, and falls down the stretch, but where fantasy football really kicks you in the groin is the monster individual game. To continue my half-hearted horse racing analogy, this would be like there are 2 horses in a pack looking to show, and just when both of them are lined up - nose to nose, hoof to hoof - one of the jockeys hits the other horse in the head with an oversized cartoon mallet - complete with tweety birds - and then straps rocket boosters to his horse and is 10 lengths ahead before you can even react.

See, not the greatest analogy.

Basically that's what happened to teams facing  Adrian Peterson or Seattle defense.

Let's start with Peterson. His performance. That shouldn't be all that surprising as his past 4 games he's rushed for 171, 108, 210, and 154 with 4 TDs. Even if you want to say, it was against the Bears, I'm still not all that shocked. What is continuing to amaze me is that Peterson is doing this coming off of ACL surgery. And not just coming off ACL surgery, but coming back early. As a running back. And he's crushing fantasy leagues everywhere. The much questioned fantasy pick early in the year has now become a bargain. Some one took him with the 10th pick of the 1st Round in my draft and people were iffy about it. Now, he's laughing his way to dead last in our league (well, that's not Adrian's fault).

There has been a lot of oooh's and ahhh's about AD's performance this year, and although the award doesn't have a lot of clout, there is no doubt in my mind he should win Comeback Player of the Year. Look, we're all happy Peyton Manning is back, and looking reasonably like Peyton Manning. Sure he had some doubts, just like Peterson, but the question surrounding Manning was more of whether his nerves would regenerate properly to give his arm the proper strength and if his neck would hold up. If his nerves regenerated fine, then he'd be fine. Multiple doctors gave him clearance to play. It was just a matter of getting back into action.

Peterson said he'd be ready to go Week 1 and people just said he was being optimistic. To this day, doctors still aren't quite sure how he got healthy so fast, and I'm sure other athletes that have had this operation wonder how he is running as hard and as well as he is without holding back. If anything it appears overcoming this injury has strengthened him mentally. He put up 29 fantasy points when his owners needed him. Not that he hadn't all ready done it, but he more than justified their pre-season faith in AD.

Update: Thought this column posted today on Grantland was relevant. 

While it's a major bummer to go up against Peterson, at least you had hopes of him being contained. I'm sure little time was wasted worrying about the Seattle Seahawks defense. Sure they were at home facing the Cardinals (who after their 4-0 start have quickly morphed into one of the worst teams in a long time - they're so bad I'm openly wondering whether or not Larry Fitzgerald is vastly overrated) and Yahoo! had them projected at 11.62 points. A fair amount, sure, but seemed to be more of a product of the match-up than anything. This defense has only put up double digit fantasy points once in the past 6 weeks.

So when they left the Cardinals pie faced into the grass at CenturyLink Field they took 41 fantasy points with them. 41! That made Seattle DEF the highest scoring "player" in all of week 14. This was an absolute death blow. Anyone with this defense should have been well on their way to winning the week. They scored 2 TDs with 8 turn overs and 3 sacks to complete their shut out of the Red Birds. To work all this way and be kept out of the playoffs thanks to a defense with two soon to be suspended players on it is just unfair. Then again, disappointment and injustice is all part of the fantasy football game.

Let's see who will break some opponents' hearts in playoff football...

Former Heisman winner Mark Ingram isn't worth your money. (sportsnola.com)

Kenny Britt, WR - TEN (49% owned) NYJ

A lot of people have been waiting on Britt to find his form this season after multiple knee surgeries. His 143 yard performance against a hapless Indy defense helped raise some eyebrows, and Britt seems to be clicking with Jake Locker nabbing 2 TDs in his last 3 games. They'll play the Jets on Monday night, and will be a good homerun threat to close out the week.

Montell Owens, RB - JAX (23%) @MIA

M-O, M-O, M-O, M-OOOOOOOO, M-O, M-OOOO. Sounded better when it was TO for Terrell Owens, but he did have the 2nd best individual performance by a Jags running back this year. Miami defense is no joke, but there is room to get some points if Chad Henne can get the pass game working. It's a big if, but if you need an RB (at least an RB out of one's I haven't already talked about) Owens looks to be a valuable add.

DuJuan Harris, RB - GB (0%) @CHI

It has been a troubling season for Green Bay. Their offense just isn't that strong, and it's mainly a result of injuries to the offensive line and wide receivers. Randall Cobb can only do so much. The lack of run game hasn't helped ease the pain of Aaron Rodgers. Harris was respectable in that he scored a TD, but the RB's in Packerland have been a rotating door and Mike McCarthy appears to have no patience to make things work. Harris is a speculative add with the potential to score in Chi-town.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Mark Ingram, RB - NO (28%) TB

Even when Ingram is given the role of primary back, he can't out fantasy Darren Sproles. He did average 5.2 yards per carry against the Giants last week, but he did not find the end zone. It's hard to tell what the Saints have with Ingram or why he was drafted by them. They don't need or use a conventional running back and never have with Drew Brees' offense. I'm not willing to give up on the former Heisman winner, but he's a no go for fantasy owners.

THE 1%

Dwayne Harris, WR - DAL (0%) PIT

You probably heard the loud groan of Dez Bryant owners' after it was revealed Dez broke/injured a finger in the closing minutes of the Cowboys Bengals game (a couple plays before his 27 yard TD catch). It's being reported that Dez is giving it a go on Sunday as the Cowboys look to make it to the playoffs. While Dez has been one of the best fantasy receivers over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to trust a wide receiver with a broken finger. The risk of ineffectiveness or getting pulled from the game are high, especially against a stout pass defense like Pittsburgh. While people may be running to go get Kevin Ogletree again, I think Harris is a better pick. Harris has been more consistent and garnered more targets recently than Ogletree. We've seen what (little) Ogletree is capable of, so it would make sense for hot seated head coach Jason Garrett to let the second year man from East Carolina have a go.

Looking for a Fight: UFC 154 Part I

It's no coincidence that GSP's return is also the return of the big main event. (ufc.com)

It's been 19 months since Georges St-Pierre stepped into the Octagon. A small span of time in the grand scheme of the UFC, but leading up to UFC 154 Saturday night at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada, it's a wonder that the UFC survived without him.

As per usual, the UFC landscape has changed over the past year and a half, but it's clear that the impact of it's biggest star (sorry, Jon Jones, fans hate you a bit too much to wrestle that title from GSP) and biggest draw can still sculpt valleys and mountains like a great glacier, cutting to the heart of what makes the UFC so great and what fans pine for during every pay per view. The best of the best putting on a show. Fighters that masterfully blend all aspects of martial arts into a dominant and awe inspiring performance.

In what has been mostly an injury riddled and disappointing year for the UFC, GSP is shining a very bright light as 2012 comes to a close. So far he's been able to provide an intriguing comeback story (complete with "I've go my fire back" quotes!), set up a great fight between himself and interim champion Carlos Condit that can and is single-handily carrying a pay per view that will easily surpass 600K buys, starred in one of the most entertaining UFC Primetimes in a long time, led to rumors of an Anderson Silva v. GSP mega-fight at Cowboys Stadium and everything that goes along with that (mainly will Anderson enter the ring should GSP win on Saturday to what beach will Anderson be sipping mai thais on during his "vacation"...even though we all know his posturing is just free publicity for his movie with Steven Seagal).

So for Part I of this two part Looking for a Fight, let's focus on GSP, because basically there isn't a person in the fight world right now that can't do anything but that. Sorry, Carlos, I'll get to you soon.

The surprising story line that emerged from GSP's rehab process isn't that his rehab was tough, that he faced some self-doubt; as these are all things that I'm sure most top level athletes will go through, but rather that GSP frankly has stated that in his last couple of title defenses he was a much more dour GSP. He became engulfed by the business side of fighting, viewing each match-up as a chore rather than a chance to compete. This makes everything about being a fighter more arduous. Training, strict dieting, sparring, the aches, the pains, and knowing that every morning you wake up, you'll be going to sleep maybe a little better but a lot more frustrated.

I found an interesting take on this part of the process (training and the day to day grind as opposed to the actual fight itself) in Grantland's piece yesterday about Rembert Browne's trip to NFL HQ to visit the set of NFL Red Zone. The always seeming caffeinated host of Red Zone Scott Hanson (he doesn't drink coffee!) mentioned this:

Deion and Sapp and all those guys will tell you, when they played, you didn't need to pay them for Sunday. You pay them to come to practice every day and do film work and all that other stuff that was kind of drudgery. Game day they would do for free. This is the fun stuff.

That's it right there.

When athletes or a person with a seemingly glamorous position say they'd do this for free, they probably would. The this being playing on Sunday, acting in a movie, or whatever. The payment part comes from the droll of training and mentally preparing and sitting in a trailer memorizing lines. That mundane stuff is where payment is owed. Getting to go out there and perform your craft, to put it on display, that's the payoff for all that work.

GSP had lost even that. There was no payoff for him. It was just knock one down and move onto the next one. And knowing what we know about GSP, it wouldn't be a big leap to suggest that being one of the top pound for pound fighters on the planet, being the undisputed welterweight champ, to take on each day with those kinds of expectations and pressures, sure that along with the business side of things could squelch any man's flame.

The knee injury is what freed GSP of these burdens. It broke him from his routine of train, press conference, fight, win, train, press conference, fight, win - and gave him that always powerful "perspective on things."

Due to that injury, he had to deal with the possibility that he'd never be the same guy again. That he'd lose even a portion of that athleticism that made him such an elite fighter against all types of opponents. His agility and explosiveness allowed him to implement his game plan with expert precision in order to become a truly dominant mixed martial artist.

Also, as he witnessed from afar, the UFC trucks along. An interim title was set up between Condit and Nick Diaz. Coincidentally, it was Diaz who essentially took the title shot back from Condit after Diaz trash talked his way to GSP and certainly made Georges show some fire.

Training for that fight is when he tore his ACL, and sent him down a different path with new challenges.

For the first time since he entered the Octagon in 2002, there was no clear path for him. He was either focused on winning fights, getting to the title and defending the title. Now, he was in some kind of champion limbo. Not quite fighting for the championship, but not quite fighting to win it back. He had to prove to himself that he wanted to get back in the cage. He had to prove to himself that he still has the drive and fire to be not one of the greats, but the greatest fighter at 170.

When GSP comes out of the tunnel with his customary karate gi on Saturday night, he would have proven to himself he found those things in his year and a half journey back to the UFC. Internally he knows. That fire is burning bright and his butterflies are flying in formation. Now, he'll be out to prove to everyone else that the best GSP possible is back, and he'll do it in one of the toughest fights of his career.

Tomorrow in Part II, the fight breakdown...

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 2

You win this round, RGIII. (wjla.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at least 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Like most of you, I was eager and more than happy to hunker down on Sunday for the first full slate of NFL games for the 2012-2013 season,* but as one heralded rookie put on a show in New Orleans, I'm pretty sure I had a more unique experience watching this go down. Now, I have Robert Griffin III as my back-up to Tom Brady in my money fantasy league, so I can't say I was bummed I didn't start him, but rather happy to have him on board. Of course, this experience can be shared with hundreds of thousands of other RGIII owners. Where my experience becomes unique is that my initials are R.G. and I also just so happen to be the 3rd.

*Can we all just agree to "Madden" any sports years that aren't all encompassed in one calendar year? When Madden comes out, it's not Madden 12-13, it's Madden 13. This is the 2013 football season. Sorry to all the hyphen lovers out there.

So, not that he hasn't taken the moniker of RGIII more than rightfully over your humble narrator, I was just reflecting on two things.

1. How did I never make better use of the RGIII, RG3 nickname?
2. If I had, man I would have been able to make at least some money off of it.

The answer to the first question is much easier and more palatable. I had a better nickname growing up. Using my last name as the springboard, it initially became G-Lock, which streamlined to Glock (unbeknownst to me or any of my friends at the time a glock is also a pistol, so not trying to be all gangster or anyting). Then another incarnation, the Glockness Monster or just Glockness. To this day, I say much better than RGIII.

The answer to the second question gets to be a bit harder to swallow. For the longest time, at least in the early '00s when rap was exploding everywhere and I had realized that Glock is the name for a handgun, I was solicitous that a rapper would take my coveted nickname. Then from that point on, my nickname, which I liked, would be compared to/inspired by that rapper or it would become obsolete. Little did I know that around that same time, an 8th grader was going to blindside me for the rights to RGIII. 

Needless to say, in an era of 2Chainz, Maino, Tyga, Wiz Khalifa, and any other ridiculous rap names there are, Glock appears to be safe.

Where my RGIII connection comes in is that when Twitter first came out, I had to pick a handle. Glockness Monster was too long, Glock was not allowed due to the aforementioned affiliation to a firearm. So I tried RG3. Too short. Twitter requires 4 characters. Ok, RG_3. Eh, don't like the way it looks. What about...RGIII? Available, works, but eh, I don't know, let's go with TheRealGlockness (or something completely stupid and not funny). For a moment in time, I had Robert Griffin III's Twitter handle, and while I'm no economist I'm pretty sure the rights to that would have netted me a nice chunk of change from the RGIII camp. If only. Not to make matters any better, I've switched my name 2 or 3 times to the current one, which I'm fine with. 

As RGIII laid down after his 88-yd TD pass to Pierre Garcon, he had plenty of things whistling threw his helmet. Me? I only had one. "Shit."

Onto who you should be opening your wallets for.

Flac-daddy (http://cdn.stereogum.com)

Joe Flacco, QB - BAL (70% owned)

Perhaps no one took a leap in Week 1 quite like Joe Flacco (Audubon Green Wave, what!). The now unibrowless and fu-man-chuless QB opened up his brand new offense, and the no huddle seams to treat him just fine. With more control over play calls and having play makers like Dennis Pitta, a healthy Anquan Boldin, and burner Torrey Smith, Flacco can utilize Ray Rice as a runner, pass catcher out of the backfield, and most importantly excellent play action threat to open up deep balls that Flacco actually throws extremely well. Flacco has always been a better actual player than fantasy player, but after last night's performance he bumps up a tier to solid fantasy QB2/spot starter. By the end of the year, it could be higher than that.

Owen Daniels/Jared Cook/Kyle Rudolph/Dennis Pitta/Marcedes Lewis, TE (All 65% and under)

If you were pissed you missed on Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, or Aaron Hernandez, maybe you shouldn't be. This appears to be Year II of the Tight End. All those guys (minus Gates who *gasp* got a little dinged up) put up solid Week 1 numbers, but the group of widely available TE's look to be up to the challenge.

Daniels we know about. He's had great success in Houston, and he has been productive. With Schaub back, it appears things are back to normal for him, however, I would still put him in the old school class of TEs. The next couple guys are a new wave.

Rudolph was highlighted in my failed Grantland submission as my sleeper, and when I was researching that position, a lot of what I liked in Rudolph you could say about Dennis Pitta. 

Kyle may not have won me a Grantland gig, but I still like him.(media.scout.com)

The thing that stood out for Jared Cook and Marcedes Lewis was easily how they were utilized on Sunday. @MikeClayNFL tweeted that the Titans called a pass play on 48 of Cook's 60 snaps. Out of those 48 pass plays, the TE stayed back to pass block all of zero times. He was out there running routes and looking for catches. The athletic TE has been a 'sleeper' pick for so many years I'm sure he's burned some bridges, but with Kenny Britt still recovering from his knee surgeries and a young QB in Jake Locker, the Titans certainly look to be turning to Cook.

Lewis did have 10 TDs two years ago, but the mess that Jacksonville was last year and some dropsies by the big man caused an unbelievably horrid year. He too became the apple of Blaine Gabbert's hair eye in Week 1 and was able to get a lot of look as well was haul in a TD.

Alshon Jeffery, WR - CHI (35%)

Titus Young was a popular sleeper pick at WR this year. People saw Calvin Johnson, people saw match-up issues, people saw a lot of one-on-one coverage for the young receiver. Well, things didn't exactly go as planned for Titus in Week 1. When you're the dumb one out of a confrontation with Janoris Jenkins, that's a problem. One Lions head coach Jim Schwartz probably won't tolerate much more of.

Another team in the division though, may have been a quiet sleeper in utilizing the Johnson-Young dilemma, the Chicago Bears. Brandon Marshall looked to be on the same page as Jay Cutler, which is a good thing for each of them, and potentially a great thing for Jeffery. The rookie wideout caught a touch and had 80 yards. If Cutler, Marshall, and Forte/Bush get motoring, it might be wide open spaces for Jeffery.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Alfred Morris, RB - WAS (5%)

Well, that didn't take long. The Redskins RB situation has created the first line in the sand moment of fantasy football 2013. Either people are going to be right or wrong in saying claim him or not. For me, I'm staying away. A tiger can't change their stripes and Mike Shanahan hasn't had a steady back in quite some time. If Alfred Morris is Terrell Davis, then I was way, way wrong, but I'll opt and say he isn't. Morris will be decent, maybe an RB4 or decent flex play given the match-up, but with RGIII at the helm, Shanahan will want to keep a back in there that can run, pass block, and pass catch. As far as I can tell, Morris can only do one of those things. That equals a RB shuffle akin to what we've all been known to hate about Shanahan.

Also, let's just say RGIII becomes a better version of Cam Newton last year? It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the run game minimized in that circumstance, along with the times when the 'Skins are trailing in the ball game. If I have a top 5 waiver claim, sure I can see doing that. But unloading half or more of my FAAB? No thanks.

THE 1%

Bilal Powell, RB - NYJ (1%)

I'm pretty sure no one is overreacting to the Jets offensive explosion on Sunday. Things would be a lot quieter in Gang Green land if Mark Sanchez could consistently do what he did against either an underprepared or overrated Bills defense. Odds are, they are going to have to turn to the run game, and while Shonn Greene looked to have a good game, he did fumble twice (both were recovered). This isn't great for Greene, who has continued to underwhelm the fantasy community for years. We all know Tim Tebow is lurking in weird packages that probably won't work, or in cases like Sunday, aren't needed, but with Joe McKnight being Joe McKnight, there is an opportunity for Powell to take some carries with the first team offense.

Grantland: Fantasy Island Competition (Loser)

A fantasy writing opportunity? Keep dreaming. (Getty images)

Bill Simmons' site, Grantland, on ESPN launched a contest to find their next fantasy football writer. Now, as a purveyor of sports/fantasy knowledge, aside from the odds being against me, I was forced to enter at the mere shot of getting into the competition.

The rules were simple enough. Pick your top 5 fantasy players and 1 sleepers, keep it to 750 words, and be original. Ok, I can do that. As a matter of fact, I can easily do that.

As I focused in on writing my 750 word essay, I started to think of the implications of what I was doing. The essay would only get me into the contest, where a varied point system would be developed among the 10-12 other contestants in order to pick a winner at the end of the football season.

Would you believe it, but some people took the cynical approach and "thanked" Grantland for offering to get free fantasy football content for a year and then offer up a "meager" contributor contract to write for Grantland for a year (and I guess potentially longer if you're the bee's knees).

I write and maintain Lockration. not because I have some delusion of becoming the next Bill Simmons or that ESPN or Yahoo or CBS will shoot me an email saying they like my stuff and want me to work for them full-time. I know that requires this site to get probably close to 100K hits a day, which this site is currently running behind by about 99,989 hits. I would write about fantasy sports, MMA, major sports, or that sport where the horses dance around with braided manes if I could earn a living off of it. This is fun for me. This is leisure. Each post is basically a first draft I write off the top of my head, do a little research for links and such, and I post it. All-in-all, I can write something up in about 40 minutes. This is my zen.

This takes me back to the implications of entering the contest and wanting to really, truly win. I was having dreams of winning, I felt it in my guts. You'll see in the entry below for my sleeper pick of Kyle Rudolph, I make some very similar comments to a Bill Barnwell (see. Copycat Contract) article posted days later! I was basically writing as a Grantlander already! Now, of course, I'm no where as prolific, good, or anything positive compared to Barnwell, but to me it was a sign.

If I entered this, did my best, and didn't win, then what? Would I sully my zen? Validation is a word I always tied to a weakness. Validation is something a person needed to know they belong. How could they possibly ever know if they were good enough if someone didn't pat them on the back? I thought it was weak, lame, and unnecessary. But as I wrote the article, submitted it, and waited for the results, what I was looking for was...validation. I wanted a pat on the back welcoming me to a new life and career path with unlimited potential and making me probably one of the happiest people on the planet.

In that instance I saw when people say validation, what they meant. Most stories you hear of people needing validation are famous cases. A QB getting the starting gig, a baseball Hall of Famer tabbing a youngster as the future of the sport, a maligned NBA superstar finally getting his first/overdue championship. These are not instances of weak people but people that are seeking to find that cozy spot in life where they know and feel they've always belonged.

That's what getting into this contest would have represented to me. So, now that the  results are out and I'm posting this article, clearly that did not happen. While I was bummed for about 10 minutes, I was happy to realize that this did not mess with my head. I didn't say screw this writing stuff. I was happy to continue on this path that I'm making and come of it what may.

Plus when I saw some of the entries that were posted online for this contest, they were horrible! I mean HORRIBLE! So I know that my entry wasn't the worst, but it wasn't the best either.

The gist of what I've gathered regarding the winners submissions they were a little more over the top than my entry. My thought process was, they're asking for the Top 5 Fantasy players and a sleeper not to judge your football acumen (as many Top 5's are the same thing) but rather narrow the scope to judge the best writing. So maybe I should have authored another essay but only made it Game of Throes themed or something more outlandish to really...show...my chops.

But it's also possible the other articles were just vastly superior to mine. It's happened before, it'll happen again. Nonetheless here are my Top 5 Fantasy picks for Football (note: some of the links may not work since I copied and pasted it).

Arian Foster, RB

Last year dramatically shifted the way fantasy football is played. Four of the top six all-time single season passing yardage records were set in 2011, tight ends put up wide receiver numbers, and numerous cable packages geared towards fantasy football revealed to an untold number of significant others how pathetic the person they thought they loved really was.

With all that changed in fantasy, some things stay the same. You take the best running back available with the #1 pick. Foster, the pontificating point-smith of fantasy, has said he doesn’t care for the hobby, but he certainly plays like he does by averaging 140.25 total YPG and 1.03 TD/G. Also, for those nervous about injuries, or Ben Tate, or Ben Tate injuring Foster Showgirls style – don’t play scared.

Aaron Rodgers, QB

Rodgers is fantasy’s cool ocean breeze at the par 4 No. 8 at Pebble Beach, as innovative as a James Murphy track, and as comforting as a guaranteed 20 points a week (which Rodgers did in every week last year but one). He threw all of 6 INTs last year while scrambling for an additional 3 TDs. Also, he’s the only player that has been in the top three in fantasy points the last four years.

His football environment breeds success. He may not get much better, but at his numbers that’s perfectly alright.

Ray Rice, RB

Rice may be the best running back in football, but that doesn’t mean he’s the best fantasy running back. Aside from being healthy (playing the full 16 the past 3 years) and coming off a career year (eclipsing his personal record for total TDs in a season by 7), the concern with Rice has always been his supporting cast. The thing that makes him as valuable as he is – is his greatest weakness: he’s all the Ravens have on offense. Every week the opposing team’s defense focuses on stopping Rice. Now you can file that under ‘E’ for Easier Said Than Done, but accounting for 48% of a team’s offensive touches week by week can lead to inconsistency.

LeSean McCoy, RB

You know you’ve arrived when you’re known by your nickname. Happened with my buddy, Patch (he had a birthmark over his left-eye…kind of like the Target dog). For Shady, scoring 20 total TDs helped him dash and cut his way to the elite RB table and grab the big piece of chicken.

Shady’s fantasy potential is contingent on the exact opposite issue Rice has. “There aren’t enough TDs to go around!”[1] He’s grabbed 40, 78, 48 passes the past 3 years in Philly’s hybrid West Coast offense and led all backs in FootballOutsiders.com’s effective yards. The Eagles have many weapons, but even if Shady loses a couple goal line scampers, he’s still elite…although you might want to discuss that with this blasphemer.

Calvin Johnson, WR

There isn’t a more fun player to watch play football than Johnson. He passes the eye test, science test, and nerd test. He needs to be included in any-and-all, “What if this guy played this other sport” and “who needs their own YouTube channel” conversations.

There are some Optimus Primes sullying the Megatron love-fest. The pesky regression police have increased their jurisdiction from fantasy baseball to fantasy football.  No receiver has caught the number of TDs (16) Megatron did last year and matched/increased that number the following season. But he did score 73 more fantasy points than the next best WR, and that receiver has him or him hurling hog-hind and reading defenses. In a shallow pool, take the elite level wideout.

Kyle Rudolph, TE

Football is a copycat sport. Someone finds a Madden-type-glitch in the game and people follow suit.  Looking at the breakout stars of 2011; all signs pointed to tight end and Kyle Rudolph. He may just be Gronk-incarnate.

The 6’6 2^nd-year pro started only 1 game (played 8), but he managed to haul in 3 TDs. Along with a nose for the end zone, it’s also important to show that Rudolph can utilize his size to catch the ball and stretch the field. Looking at advanced stats, he was able to do this with an above-average catch rate of 66.7% and 20% of pass attempts his way being beyond 15 yards from the line of scrimmage.  While he has been injured during the preseason, the Vikings have the offense to make Rudolph a fantasy factor and continue the TE trend.

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[1] Quote: Scared Fantasy Owner