Showing posts with label Matt Harvey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Harvey. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: The 8 Steps of Grieving with the Loss of Matt Harvey on Your Dynasty Team

The night is darkness just before the dawn. Sweet dreams, Dark Knight. (GETTY)

One of the breakout stars of the 2013 season has been extinguished. The force that was Matt Harvey is likely no more until the Spring of 2015 at the earliest. The 24-year-old star pitcher for the New York Metropolitans was diagnosed with a partial tear of his UCL in his throwing elbow. This injury almost always leads to Tommy John surgery.

It's devastating news for anyone that is a fan of baseball, or for the purposes of this article a Harvey fantasy owner. More specifically an owner of his in a dynasty league. One tweet is all it took from dreams of owning the next Justin Verlander to utter devestation. Baseball does this to many a young pitchers, sadly, there's always the threat of an injury like this looming. Every instance of a budding superstar losing a year or two of his career is always cruel. Particularly situations like this where seemingly all of the key elements were in place. Harvey was a collegiate pitcher, had been brought along carefully, not over worked in his professional career, and even on an innings count this year set to take him to 205 innings pitched providing 2014 as his first limit free season as a Met. This injury is quite Strasburgian.

Really what baseball as a whole can take away from this is for all the monitoring, science, preparation, and expert opinions from people who know better than anyone else; there is no right answer when it comes to avoiding elbow damage in pitchers. Sure, there are things that obviously hurt it, but if you had to create an ideal scenario it for a pitcher that would succeed that throws high velocity pitches, it's Harvey. Ultimately, even under the most cautious eye and expensive care, we are all looking at an individuals make-up. His ligaments and his genetics that make Justin Verlanders and that make a lot of other pitchers.

I own Matt Harvey in a dynasty league, and I was looking forward to what the future had in store for us.

As news broke Monday afternoon, I was distraught, so I figured I'd walk you through the 8 Steps of Grieving I went through after hearing the news.

1. VERIFICATION

I initially heard rumblings of this on Twitter. Well, Twitter can be a lying whore some times, so I kept digging. Using Twitter I looked for more legit Tweeters. I sent some traffic to ESPN, Yahoo!, CBSSports, and MLB.com. Sure enough the Harvey news slowly started populating. This was a brutal blow.

2. WEB MD

Okay, so Harvey is injured, but everywhere people are saying it's a partial UCL tear. There's been no decision on surgery yet. Time to see what this means. Well, it's ultimately not good. This is typically a precursor to Tommy John, but there has been one outlier to at least being productive and staving off surgery, and that was Adam Wainwright. While Wainwright is the best case scenario, barring anything unprescedented from Harvey, it's worth noting that after his partial-tear in 2004, Wainwright wasn't a full-time starting pitcher until 2007, and after back to back 6+ WAR seasons, he blew out his elbow in 2011.

3. SLIGHT HOPE

So, why can't Harvey be the exception? Why can't he avoid surgery, rehab all off-season and come back the same next year? This ... is hard to talk yourself into. Harvey had the highest average velocity on his fastball in all of baseball. He threw his slider a lot. Despite all of the things that made Harvey such an unlikely candidate, or I guess a more hopefuly to avoid candidate, for major surgery he also had some hallmarks of a guy destined for it. There's still hope, until he says he's having the surgery, but that will be determined some point before the end of September.

4. THIS YEAR'S FANTASY TEAM

Something that kind of lessens the blow is that Harvey was going to be shut down. Probably not for another month, but it was coming. So if you have him on your fantasy team, you were probably envisioning a playoff run without him and planning accordingly. To have him just wiped out like this is a little sooner than expected, and obviously leaves more bad taste in your mouth as you try to swallow the news.

5. NEXT YEAR'S FANTASY TEAM

Here's the real kick in the balls part of this whole thing from a fantasy perspective. If you had him in a dynasty league, here's a guy that you were happy to own for the next 8-10 years. Sure, his velocity would have gone down over time, but he has a legit 4 pitch arsenal that he can throw in all four quadrants of the strike zone to righties or lefties. What he was doing so far this year and last year wasn't a fluke. He wasn't getting lucky. This was all backed up by the eye test and statistics. He led all pitchers in WAR and has a smaller FIP than his already miniscule 2.27 ERA. This injury, no matter how you dice it, isgoing to count for a year of Harvey's career being taken away. If he somehow avoids TJS, then you have to bring him back next year and just hope for the best. Maybe try to trade him in a year or two if he looks back to his old self. But if things play out like they likely will, then he'll be out all of 2014, and keeping him in a league where you only have so many keepers just isn't an option.

6. DEPRESSION

That's the sad part of everything. A lot of hopes, dreams, and expectations are gone. If he was just sore and the Mets shut him down prematurely, then yes, that would not be great for 2013, but losing him for all of 2014 is unfair.

7. ACCEPTANCE

Injuries like this will happen to pitchers and continue to happen. I enjoyed every start I got out of Harvey this year (except against the Marlins). He gave more good than any injury could take away, and as a fan of his, I personally would like him to just get the surgery and come back strong in 2015.

8. REALIZING THIS SUCKS FOR EVERYONE

Ultimately, Harvey has greater responsibilities than my dynasty team. He has responsibilities to himself, his friends and family, the Mets, New York City, and many, many more. Everyone lost some excitement in their lives by not getting to see Harvey pitch for the rest of this season and potentially 2014. He's a rock star, and although this is a set back, it's by no means a career altering injury. If there's one thing that has come out of these Tommy John surgeries is that people are able to recover from it better than ever. Look at Wainwright or Strasburg or Jordan Zimmermann. The science of coming back from TJS is as good as the procedure itself. I wish Harvey the best.

Where's my Laphroaig?

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: The LEAP Game

When Jose Fernandez takes the bump tonight; every fantasy owner should be paying attention. (Getty)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

There's a popular term out there in both real and fantasy sports known as the leap year. The year in which a promising prospect or player with a couple years in the league takes the leap to another level. Attains a higher clout in his sport, and makes more disbelievers into believers. Getting such a player during such a year in fantasy is the ultimate joy. Especially in keeper leagues where you've been through some of the ups and downs that come with attempting to master a sport at a young age. I'm looking at you Justin Upton.

Well, on the micro level - with small sample sizes all over the place - there is also a leap game. A game that serves as the breaking point for a lot of fantasy owners who are monitoring specific players. You're seeing them perform early on, don't believe it - then they put a game together where you go, "Ok, I'm in on this guy."

The two more recent successful ventures I can remember (because who remembers the failures?) was Adam Dunn last year and Jose Bautista in his legendary 2010 year. Last year, Dunn - who was coming off a horrific year - hit two homers in Seattle on April 20th and I thought he was a good rebound candidate, so seeing the power was back was what I needed to add him. 41 homers and 96 RBI later, he was one of the best pick ups of the year.

Of course in 2010, no one expected anything out of Jose Bautista, and that can be evidenced by the fact that I was the first person in my league to add him ... on May 23rd. By that point he had already dinged 13 homers en route to his career and leading homerun total of 54. I also learned another important lesson that year, if a guy is tearing it up - just add him. Risk is minimal and the rewards are potentially high.

Some guys this year I've been an earlier buyer on in free agency: Coco Crisp, Evan Gattis, Starling Marte, and I'm almost there with Jose Quintana. But the cream of the crop thus far has been Jose Fernandez.

So have I struck gold, or have his first two starts just been against inept offenses? I'm tending to lean more towards the former than the latter, but that's where tonight's game comes into play. Fernandez will be on the road in Cincinnati taking on the Reds. As it stands right now, I'm sure there are a lot of skeptics on this 20 year old that was suddenly brought up and pitching for the worst team in baseball, but if he can go out and dominate the Reds - well, then you have the leap game.

Doubters will become believers and Fernandez's fantasy value will go through the roof. In the main league I own him in, I'm avidly attempting to trade him. Not because I don't believe in him, but because I have some nice pitching already, and I need to focus on winning this year, not the next couple of years. Fernandez is a valuable asset in the interim, but an innings cap and potential rough patches down the road make him more trade bait for me.

Depending on what side of the line you fall on, fantasy owners should be actively pursuing Fernandez now - not after tonight. If you're worried now what you'll have to give up for him ... well, come 10:30 pm ET tonight, if he has his leap game, that price just went up.

As a seller on Fernandez, for the reasons mentioned above, I have some offers out for him, but probably an hour before game time, I'm pulling them all. Unless he's scratched with the flu, any other outcome will either negate the trade I currently have out there or boost his value higher. I'm not leaving that decision in another owner's hands because he wants to wait and see how this evening turns out.

Personally, in a Matt Harvey world, I'm surprised someone isn't willing to jump in on Fernandez just because. I'm not the kind of owner that will hold Fernandez hostage for an elite pitcher (for example, I offered him straight up for Dan Haren a week ago ... thankfully, that was not accepted).

On the macro level - this start won't be the end of the world for Fernandez. If he gets knocked around, it doesn't mean he's no longer an elite talent. He could go strike out 15 in his next outing, but if he is able to succeed, this will drastically alter his value. He'll be in all the fantasy write-ups tomorrow and people will begin to believe.


The Funkman is down the rabbit hole: He's beginning to believe!


Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: Not That There's Anything Wrong with That

Man crushes are more than OK in fantasy baseball. Not that there's anything wrong with them in real life. (UnderArmour)
With the fantasy season about to kick off, I wanted to list some players I've had my eye on heading into drafts. These aren't necessarily sleepers, just undervalued players. I don't think any rank in the top 40 or so of standard Yahoo! leagues, which is fine as I've mentioned Bryce Harper enough and pegged Joey Votto as my NL MVP. I guess the best way to look at these players is that I think they can produce a lot of upside compared to where they are being drafted. They're guys that I want on my team, not that there's anything wrong with that. I did something similar about a year ago minus the cool title.

One interesting note, I do tend to like a fair amount of Mariners, Brewers, and Mets. I know it's just fantasy sports, but that has to mean something for their real life chances, no?

Anyways, onward!

Looking good with that firstbase glove, Mike. (espn.com)
C - Mike Napoli, BOS: I don't understand the fear/hate out there for Napoli.  A lot of people are saying, "Oh you'll never get his 2011 year." And I agree with them. I'm not expecting a .330 AVG, but the power is real, and Napoli has my favorite caveat of any catcher ... he plays 1B. Best part is that unlike Carlos Santana or Joe Mauer he'll be playing 1B all the time. That's mucho at bats in a small home park. If he doesn't lead all "catchers" in homers this year I'll be surprised.

Also, for his degenerative hip injury that cost him his initial 3 year contract with Boston; he's always had this. It was just diagnosed when he underwent his physical. It's in the very early stages, and may even be controlled with proper medication. I understand Boston being hesitant committing to him for three years, but I'm only involved in the Mike Napoli business for one.

He'll do - Jesus Montero, SEA: Speaking of guys that used to be "catchers," Montero no longer has this luxury. However, I do like his bat. His ADP has him going way at the end of the draft. Definitely worth it if you want to wait.

I can't see too good. Is that Adrian Gonzalez over there? (cbssports.com)
1B - Allen Craig, STL: For first basemen that actually are listed as such, Craig is a great pick for this year. He had a solid 2012 posting .307/.354/.522 in 119 games. Craig does carry injury concerns with him, but stuck at first for the upcoming season, I see him putting up comparable numbers to Adrian Gonzalez in 2013.

He'll do - Chris Davis, BAL: Crush broke a lot of hearts back in 2009. He seemed destined to be a third base masher who would hit 30 homers in his sleep. Well, that didn't happen. Davis finally broke the 30-HR plateau in Baltimore, and he's no longer a 3B. Davis might be a post-hype sleeper, but there are concerns about his career high strike out rate he posted last year, so he'll definitely be hit or miss. The power is real, and he'll have regular playing time. Just a matter if you can deal with the ups and downs.

I'll be seeing you on my bench.

2B - Kyle Seager, SEA: Out of all second basemen last year, Seager ranked 2nd in RBI and T-4th in homers. That is all.

He'll do - Rickie Weeks, MIL: Many have written off Rickie Weeks, and I don't blame any of you. However, it is a thin position, and while Weeks will never have a 2010 season again, he is able to fill out 4 of 5 fantasy categories pretty well. Injuries always loom, so I wouldn't be comfortable with him as my only available 2B on the roster.


Plouffe dropping bombs. (Getty)
3B - Will Middlebrooks, BOS: Early projections in 2013 made Middlebrooks look like a monster. He has power, but limited walks and high K's can always spell disaster. He is coming off a broken wrist, so if he shows he's healthy, 20 homers is in the bank.

He'll do - Trevor Plouffe, MIN: Similar to Middlebrooks in the power department, Plouffe can be streaky, but with Minny's home park being more friendly to righties than lefties, he has a Josh Willingham-ish year in him somewhere. Just needs the plate appearances.

Prado still rocking the chain with the D'Backs. (si.com)

SS - Martin Prado, ARZ: The former Atlanta Brave added another trick to his goodie bag, shortstop eligibility. Prado's stats underwhelmed if placed at 3B or OF, but at SS, his high average, moderate pop, and run scoring acumen fit nicely. Along with some flexibility, his value takes a big jump.

He'll do - Andrelton Simmons, ATL: Responsible for replacing the SS portion of Martin Prado is the young Simmons. The defensive whiz has shown some pop late last season into this year's World Baseball Classic. It's possible he gets overwhelmed and while his glove is good enough to keep him in the line-up, he may drop lower in the batting order if his lumber struggles. Still though, I'd give him a shot at the 15/15 season many are projecting the super hyped Josh Rutledge to get.

Time for more running in the Motor City. (Getty)
OF - Austin Jackson, DET: Jackson will either be dynamite this year or take a couple steps back. That's the risk in taking him. He was also the nameless OF I mentioned a week ago. After playing ping pong with the idea in my brain, I'm going with breakout. His swing alterations appear to be legit, and if Jim Leyland removes the parking boot from Jackson's right leg, then his value can really take off. If only his park was a little smaller, I could see him hitting 20 homers. If there's a guy poised to make a big jump into the Top 25 players, he'd be my pick.

They'll do - 
Norichika Aoki, MIL: Had a fantastic rookie year. The Japanese hitman didn't forget to pack his skills on his way to Brewers camp last year. Brought in as insurance for Ryan Braun possibly being suspended, an early season injury to Corey Hart led to Aoki getting 151 games in. Hart moved to 1B and now Aoki is the everyday leadoff hitter/RF. I can easily see his entire stat line take a bump up in 2013.

Adam Eaton, ARZ: Injuries; boooooo!

Starling Marte, PIT: It was pointed out to me that Marte barely eclipsed the number of at bats last year to no longer be considered a rookie. If he hadn't, he'd be my NL Rookie of the Year pick. Strikeouts are an issue for this young OF, but he manages to make it work.

Michael Saunders, SEA: 19 HR, 27 SB, 71 R. Those are impressive numbers for a guy drowining under the radar. If Seattle's offense picks it up this year, we could see a lot more out of the 27 year-old Canadian.

Domonic Brown, PHI: Yes, spring training stats don't matter, we all know this. Dom Brown has the pedigree through, and now - apparently/finally - an everyday spot in the line-up. He may never reach the highest heights that scouts and fans wanted him to, but he can bump over 15 baseballs over the wall to go along with double digit steals.


A Matt Harvey fastball coming at you. (northjersey.com)
SP - Max Scherzer, DET: Needs to keep the pitch count down. Scherzer is erratic, but appeared to put things together last year. All signs point to a big year.

They'll do -
Matt Harvey, NYM: This is a total mancrush pick. I have two thoughts on young pitchers. They take at least 2-4 years to fully develop and that learning curve is steeper than you think. This applies 95% of the time. Do I think Harvey is in that other 5%? I do. Also, I don't think he'll have an innings limit this season. Between the 59.1 IP he threw in a Mets uniform, he also threw an additional 110 IN in the minors. As a college grad his arm can take him to 200 IP, and at that K rate - oh, boy!

Josh Johnson, TOR: This doesn't have anything to do with his spring training, but more his overall health. Johnson looks good. Johnson is in that weird realm where 1-2 years ago he was being drafted as the Johnson of old, which he's not. Now, that lingering after taste is giving us all a bitter beer face about him, thus underrating him. Johnson could be primed for a major bounce back year.

Alexi Ogando, TEX: Back in the rotation after he pitched like an all-star in his first go around, Ogando is a great late round pick. The confines he pitches in as well as his slightly depressing K total can undercut him from reaching the heights of great value, but he's a starter, no doubt.

Tommy Milone, OAK & Alex Cobb, TB: Milone and Cobb kept crossing paths as I reviewed potential sleepers. Initially, I really liked Milone. He started gaining some sleeper steam until that was derailed by Cobb who has unquestionably become the sleeper darling of 2013. All the while I was jostling Milone's rank around as I like him as much as Cobb. I'd be happy riding into the season with either of these pitchers.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA: Had a sneaky good second half after he was converted into a starter. The strikeouts are low, but the rest is solid.

Wandy Rodriguez, PIT: Kind of a dull pick, but he hasn't been bad in Pittsburgh.

Andrew Cashner, SD: Big K's, Big GB%, Big Park.

If ... (Getty)

RP - Sergio Romo, SF: There are a lot of if's with Romo. Obviously, closers are far from a sure thing - so with Romo carrying around a few more ? than the average closer, I'm not taking him over Craig Kimbrel or Jonathan Papelbon, but if he's healthy he can be one of the nastiest closers in baseball.

They'll do -
Addison Reed, CHA: Reed didn't have great numbers last year outside of his K's, but he's a young pitcher, and I think he'll find his zone in 2013.

Glen Perkins, MIN: Perkins is solid, and unless he gets traded to a non-closer role, he's one of the least threatened closers you'll find this far down in the daft.

Kenley Jansen, LAD: The icing on the cake for Jansen is if he takes over closing duties from Brandon League. I don't think he will, but he's still a K machine and valuable in week to week formats.

Carlos Marmol, CHN: This just has the feel of a good Marmol year. This is without a doubt the least confident player I have listed on here, but with everyone just assuming Marmol blows up, I can see him holding steady. He only blew one save over the second half of the year last year.

The Funkman is on vacation this week.