Showing posts with label Nick Foles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Foles. Show all posts

Friday, January 10, 2014

FAABulous: 2013 Fantasy Football Season Review

Peyton Manning had you covered this year in fantasy football. (blog.fitmarkbags.com)
Imagine two years ago when Peyton Manning wasn't playing professional football. While the cynics among us might have taken some sick pleasure in no longer having to deal with the media falling all overthemselves in Manning praise and attention, let's be honest, football in both reality and fantasy is more enjoyable with Peyton around.

Remember, when Manning came back last year, we were amazed that he was able to stay healthy and return to his previous heights. So to expect a career defining, record breaking season this year is quite amazing. We know the big and bold numbers: 55 TD passes to 10 INT, 5,477 yards, the 7 TD game to go along with another 10 games with 3+ TD passes. That's a lot of points. In the not so bold numbers, Peyton easily bested the rest of football in DVOA, especially when you only look at the starters who played the entire season. It was truly a historic year.

When it comes to the value of any fantasy football player, Jamaal Charles certainly deserves mention. In fact, it's not too hard to say he was the best individual player in fantasy in 2013. But what I want to shine a light on with Manning is that while Charles, yes, arguably was a better value for what he was able to give fantasy owners in 2013, what Manning was able to do as a quarterback is something that Charles can't replicate: spreading the fantasy love.

With Manning dispersing hog hide all over the football field, his success was directly tied to a lot of other fantasy owners' success. Overall, the Denver Broncos had six players in the Top 100 of Yahoo! Ranks (including Manning), and they all made strong contributions.

Player Fantasy Points
Peyton Manning 419.98
Knowshon Moreno 236.60
Demariyus Thomas 227.00
Eric Decker 192.80
Julius Thomas 150.80
Wes Welker 135.80

You could even say Montee Ball and his #154 rank contributed nicely near the end of the year. Sure it wasn't always easy to keep a steady amount of fantasy points flowing through the veins of these players, but Manning orchestrated it all. 

Now time to put a bow on this fantasy football season with a rundown of what I did right, and what I did wrong.

Matt Forte was one of my better calls of the year. (rantsports.com)
This was the first year I did preseason rankings, so I wanted to take a moment to quickly glance through those. For the complete rundown, the links are below. I broke down each position into tiers, so I'll focus on a tier or player I hit and a tier or player I missed on.

2013 FAABulous Ranks: QB, WR, RB, TE

RANKED WHERE THEY OUGHTA BE

QB - TIER WILL THEY-WON'T THEY & TIER JUMP STREET
Both of these tiers really worked out the best. Tier Will They-Won't They was cleared up across the board with the exception of, maybe, Andy Dalton. Although, I have an opinion on matters with the Red Rocket.

Tier Jump Street did just that, jumped over the group ahead of it (except for Cam Newton). Tier Worthy of the Hype all had reasons for sub par seasons (again except for Cam). Russell Wilson actually probably performed better in a real football sense, but failed to take the next step fantasy wise. 
Honorable Mention: Cam Newton still delivering and my multi-week coverage of Nick Foles in Philly. 

RB - MATT FORTE
Here was my hope for Forte this season:
"Out of any RB outside of the Top 10, Forte has the chance to break into the top 5 this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened."
Forte finished as the 3rd overall RB in fantasy, and he was also one of the most consistent fantasy players of the year. Lots of value for Forte investors. 
Honorable Mention: Dropping Ray Rice down in my ranks, Tier Barry Sanders (LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles), questioning the job security of both Montee Ball and David Wilson.

WR - JOSH GORDON & TIER WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE?
A two game ban meant nothing for me when it came to Josh Gordon. I can't say I had him as fantasy's #1 overall receiver, but #34with a kind note? I'll take it. 

All of Tier What Are We Doing Here? underperformed with the exception of some quick flashes from Andre Johnson. 
Honorable Mention: My tri-cycle theory with WR. Win!

TE - TONY GONZALEZ
Most of my TE success came in my week to week ranks. There was a lot of turnover and decent players that emerged. Not many victories to take, and I certainly wouldn't count a win for trusting Tony Gonzalez, but that's where we are at. Assuming Gonzalez does retire, it's a fond farewell to the greatest TE ever and a player that played consistently at an high level.
Honorable Mention: Not trusting Jermichael Finley - although I wish him the best in his recovery.

JUST A BIT OUTSIDE

QB - TONY ROMO
Like most people, it's more fun to remember the bad times for Romo than the good. His 31 TDs and 10 INTs was one of the best ratios in football, and while he didn't always perform spectacularly, he should have been ranked higher.

RB - EDDIE LACY
I told Green Bay to prove me wrong. To become a running football team, and the did just that. How much Aaron Rodgers' injury played into that, I don't know, but Lacy is here to stay. He's a top 6 back with a healthy Rodgers under center.

WR - ALSHON JEFFERY



TE - JULIUS THOMAS
Biggest miss of the year. Julius Thomas wasn't on my radar at all. Looking back at Week 1, Thomas could have been my 1% and been an excellent call, but I just had no idea who he was or what he could do. The first time I heard about him was from Andy Beherens. Thomas was dinged up a bit, but proved to be a major weapon for Manning, and a likely reason Denver will let Eric Decker go this off season.

As a nice segue, let's move to the notable hits and misses for the actual FAABulous column. Much like last year, I feel like there were a lot more successes than failures (including the ability to insert Twitter comments and GIFs), but I think I may have stretched my player pool a bit thin with too many recommendations. Something I might have to keep in mind for next year. Also, Week 14, 15 & 16 were playoff match-up editions, so no add/drops for those weeks. Anyways, onward!

After some back and forth, it's hard to doubt Nick Foles moving foward. (rantsports.com)

TROPHY KIDS: I MEASURE MY SUCCESSES VICARIOUSLY THROUGH YOU

WEEK 1
KNOWSHON MORENO (41% OWNED) 
CHRISTINE MICHAEL (26%) 
I'm pretty sure this is the last year I'l be able to pick Moreno as an underrated pick. Hey, remember when Christine Michael was a thing this year?

WEEK 2
HARRY DOUGLAS (1%) 
JULIAN EDELMAN (25%) 
Solid week. I was skeptical of Roddy White's health all year, and later in the season when Julio Jones went down, Douglas became the top WR option in Atlanta. He got 1,000 yards, but only 2 TD. I was less bullish on Edelman, but since Danny Amendola completely no-showed this year and Rob Gronkowski was out for a while, Edelman got a chance to shine. After he signs his free agent contract this off season he should tweet a thanks to Tom Brady.

WEEK 3
ANDRE ELLINGTON (1%) 
Showed off his explosiveness and increased his touches as the season went on. Finished 80th overall.

WEEK 5
CHARLES CLAY (48%) 
He really impressed this year. Built a strong connection with Ryan Tannehill.

WEEK 6
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON (17%) 
ZAC STACY (17%) 
KEENAN ALLEN (6%) 
This is an all-star week. Stacy was a beast when healthy this year, and Keenan Allen is an offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Patterson came on later, but he's a target to keep an eye on next year.

WEEK 7
NICK FOLES (12%) 
JARRETT BOYKIN (3%)
Oh, that Nick Foles. He cured what ailed a lot of teams struggling at QB. Boykin had his moments in the sun, but his opportunities set near the last quarter of the season. With James Jones on the way out, Boykin laid some groundwork for next season.

WEEK 8 
DONALD BROWN (8%)
MARVIN JONES (2%)
JOSH MCCOWN (1%)
Donald Brown was just better than Trent Richardson. Marvin Jones scored 4 TD's if you added him this week. Josh McCown went on an absolute tear subbing for Jay Cutler. 

WEEK 10 
ANDRE BROWN (37%)
RILEY COOPER (9%)
Always liked me some Andre Brown. Cooper emerged from controversy and had a career year (#72 overall).

WEEK 11
SHANE VEREEN (49%)
RASHAD JENNINGS (49%)
BOBBY RAINEY (4%)
Three solid rushers to help you along the way. Rainey had a huge game this week, when most were opting for Brian Leonard.


Percy Harvin couldn't escape the grasp of the inactive list in 2013. (seahawks.com)

TROPHY KIDS: YOU BLEW IT!



WEEK 2
TERELLE PRYOR (12% OWNED) 
What's that, future me? Pryor would lose his job to Matt McGloin? Oh ... thanks.

WEEK 3
EDDIE ROYAL (23%) 
PERCY HARVIN (31%) 
No dice with these receivers. Harvin's best opportunity to help any fantasy owners comes this weekend for those that play playoff fantasy football. I wouldn't count on him.

WEEK 5
ROBERT WOODS (13%) 
Let's just say I had higher hopes for Woods and E.J. Manuel this year.

WEEK 7
AARON DOBSON (15%) 
Rolled the dice with Bill Belichick's offense and lost.

WEEK 8
GENO SMITH (13%)


WEEK 9
DANIEL THOMAS (16%)
DEXTER MCCLUSTER (5%)
PEYTON HILLIS (40%)
I refuse to believe I felt good writing about any of these guys in Week 9.

WEEK 10 
ANDREW HAWKINS (1%)
I still really do like Hawkins. Just not Andy Dalton.

WEEK 11
TAVON AUSTIN (44%)
DENNIS JOHNSON (21%)
Week late on Austin, but didn't miss much. Dennis Johnson is this year's Ahmad Bradshaw Award winner for RB you hold onto assuming the RB ahead of him on the depth chart surely can't play (Ben Tate with broken ribs).

WEEK 12 
CHRIS OGBONNAYA (1%)
It honestly wasn't worth trying to figure out how to spell his name for how little value he provided.

WEEK 13
ALL BALTIMORE RAVENS
Damn you, Joe Flacco.

That's the rundown in all it's beauty and bruises. It's been another fun year, and I even got a one-time sponsorship from Fan Duel. So I can officially say I earned money from this! Exciting times, and this will likely be back next year. As for what's next ... well, it's fantasy baseball season, folks. See you soon.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 16

Jamaal Charles got to know the end zone very well on Sunday. (GETTY)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.PLAYOFF EDITION: We're not focusing on lower % owned players, but those with choice match-ups for the playoffs.


Thursday night seems like a long time ago, but for many fantasy owners it was the beginning of a bad, bad week. The elite group of fantasy points hit men known as the Denver Broncos fell on their face Thursday night at home against the San Diego Chargers. As the clock ticked down on the first game for virtually everyone in the fantasy playoffs, Peyton Manning had tallied 18.56 fantasy points. The second highest fantasy point scorer for Denver was the 1% owned Andre Caldwell at 17.90 points. As for all those other elite fantasy options the Broncos trot out on the field on a weekly basis their point totals went as follows:

Knowshon Moreno: 5.50
Julius Thomas: 4.90
Montee Ball: 4.80
Demariyus Thomas: 4.50
Eric Decker: 4.20

And, I'm all like ...




Sure, FAABulous Week 15 pick Ryan Mathews had a great game, but that's not what I signed up for when I put my life in the hands of a random assortment of football players back in August! How can a squadron of world beaters like the Broncos lay such a goose egg right when it matters? Well, that's fantasy football. As frustrating and annoying as that game was to watch, Sunday had a lot more surprises in store for us.

Here's a quick overview of what happened on Sunday.

The best scoring quarterbacks of the week were Nick Foles (fine), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Matt Cassel, Matt Flynn, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, EJ Manuel, and Jay Cutler.

The best RUNNER was Matt Asiata who had a meaty 1.7 YPC but of course scored 3 TD's.

The best receiver was a running back.

The best tight end on the planet had his fantasy output doubled by Clay Harbor ... and if you started Jeff Cumberland, Mychal Rivera, or Cory Harkey you would have more than tripled Jimmy Graham's production!

Two kickers scored more than 20 points.

And finally, two defenses let up 31 points or more, but still got 19.00 fantasy points.

It was an insane weekend. The silver lining in all of that mess was that it wasn't likely you were facing many of those quarterbacks and Asiata was still on waivers by the time he was stumbling into the paint for his 3rd TD of the game. The one player that truly made or broke your fantasy dreams was Jamaal Charles.

Charles etched his name into the record books on Sunday and left an indelible mark on fantasy football forever after his 51.50 fantasy point effort. In a laughable display of Raider defense, Charles was able to break three huge screen passes (49, 39, 71) along with another 16-yard catch and 1-yard run for 215 total yards and 5 TD's.

If you were facing a Charles led team, you probably felt like ...

Poor punter :(

Yes, it was a historic performance not only in numbers, but in time of the year. To do this in a decided fantasy football playoff week is amazing. ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft summarizes everything beautifully here.

Obviously after a game like this, Charles is going to be at the forefront of a lot of talk. Fantasy MVP, next year's No. 1 overall fantasy pick, real life NFL MVP, and so on. But I wanted to take a moment to reflect on Charles' performance on Sunday not as him throwing his hat into the fantasy MVP ring, but as an exclamation point to a fantastic year that should end on a high note this Sunday against a lowly Colts defense.

Charles has been the most consistent fantasy star this year. He was my #5 ranked RB coming into the season, which was probably a little higher than the average ranking. ESPN has his ADP entering into the year at #6. Next year, he's assuredly a Top 3 pick, but his career at this point has been anything but consistent. He was bound for super stardom before he tore his ACL in Week 2 of the 2011 season, and last year in Kansas City, then head coach Romeo Crennel wanted to limit his touches so he didn't get hurt again. After all, that's how to prevent ACL tears, right?

Well, as I mentioned in my running back rankings, the two wild cards this year were LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. Namely because they were both getting new offensive minded coaches. It's pretty clear that they were picking up what Andy Reid was throwing down in Kansas City; same goes for Reid's replacement in Philadelphia, Chip Kelly. Using Charles was the best thing for him. Not just driving him between the tackles, but implementing Reid's trademark screen passing game. Getting him open in space so he can avoid getting roughed up every time he gets the ball, oh, and you might want to take a note Romeo, but utilizing one of Charles' elite skills.

This is the kind of Jamaal Charles we should see on the football field, and he is cashing in on his immense talent. The 26-year-old still has more room to grow, and while he'll always be remembered fondly by his 2013 fantasy owners, there are some years ahead he can spread to joy to others in 2014 and beyond.

For many people, this is the championship week, and likely the last week I'll do previews, so best of luck with everything. It's been a crazy fantasy year, but I will be back with my year end wrap-up for FAABulous looking at my hits and misses.

Delanie Walker is a weapon in the suddenly aggressive Titans' pass game. (rantsports.com)

QB - Nick Foles, PHI v +Chicago Bears, Colin Kaepernick, SF v +Atlanta Falcons 

More Nick Foles. You know what to do with him. Kaepernick on the other hand has probably been the most disappointing QB this year. Whether it's Jim Harbaugh's decision to stop running Kaep that much or it's just a learning curve, the 2nd year starter has not lived up to expectations. The 49ers have shown some signs of life and getting Michael Crabtree back has helped, so there is an opportunity for a big game against the defeated Falcons.

If you're desperate: Andy Dalton, CIN v +Minnesota Vikings, Jay Cutler, CHI @ +Philadelphia Eagles  

These look good on paper, but when it comes to Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler you just never know. I'm rather surprised that many people are looking past Cutler's fleas after one decent performance back from his injury. The Eagles had their toast buttered by Matt Cassel last week, but you have to imagine their performance will more resemble how the team has played in previous weeks - Dallas victory or not - on Sunday night. But I get it with Cutler. If the Eagles push the pace, then that's more opportunities for Cutler to launch it to the best WR tandem in football, but that also increases his opportunities to make a mistake. Cutler's season high for fantasy points is 23.02. Tread lightly.

RB - Jamaal Charles, KC v +Indianapolis Colts, Matt Forte, CHI @ +Philadelphia Eagles  

Yep, that's right don't bench Jamaal Charles. You're welcome. Overall though this is a hat tip to two of the most consistent fantasy players this year. In head to head match ups, there is no denying the comfort of not having any bum performances by your top tailback.

If you're desperate: Reggie Bush, DET v +New York Giants, Ben Tate, HOU v +Denver Broncos 

It's hard to trust Matt Stafford after watching that game last week. He looked atrocious, and he certainly cost some of his owners a playoff win. Bush was able to battle back from a calf injury to look explosive and productive. Stafford will always air it out to Calvin, but it would make sense for the Lions to try to keep his errors in check by relying heavlily on Bush.

The Texans season was over a dozen weeks ago. What a train wreck. However, let's keep in mind that Mr. Ben Tate has put together a great season filling in for Adrian Foster as well as playing for that fat contract he's looking to land in the off-season. All systems are a go for Tate to get carries even if the Texans are down 100.

UPDATE: I don't normally do this, but Ben Tate broke another rib and hours ago was put on IR. Dennis Johnson is the Texan to add, but I'll toss some love towards Fred Jackson, BUF @ +Miami Dolphins 

WR - Chicago Bears receivers, Demaryius Thomas, DEN v +Houston Texans, Julian Edelman, NE v +Baltimore Ravens, Antonio Brown, PIT v GB

Alshon, always and forever.


People are worried that the Broncos will be up 70 and halftime and rest everyone. Well, guess what? If they score 70 by halftime, someone still catches those touchdowns. This feels like a Demaryius game. He had a clunker last week, but before that consistently has gotten to either 100 yards, a TD or both. He's a safe play even if Wes Welker is back.

Let's also hail Mini-tron, Julian Edelman. I was a tentative believer in him early on, but he's really come along as a Tom Brady favorite. Sure, it took his star tight end to get injured yet again, his top RB to be benched, and Danny Amendola to be completely untrustworthy to happen, but still.

And Antonio Brown continues to be the most underappreicated offensive player in football.

If you're desperate: Riley Cooper, PHI v CHI, Kendall Wright, TEN @ +Jacksonville Jaguars

People are gaga about the Bears' offensive possibilities, but the Eagles' offense is pretty good too. Cooper is due.

Fear Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Titans. It's almost like they can't wait to cut Chris Johnson when the year is over.

TE - Julius Thomas, DEN v +Houston Texans, Delanie Walker, TEN @ +Jacksonville Jaguars  

Thomas hasn't been his usual self since his injury, but after two games back in action I think he's ready to go. The Broncos are looking to make a statement and they're not going to be happy or tentative heading to Houston. TD's galore.

Delanie Walker is a fave of mine this year. I loved him last week as a TE play, and with Jordan Cameron getting diagnosed with a concussion on Monday, I like Walker even more.

If you're desperate: Zach Miller, SEA v +Arizona Cardinals, Tyler Eifert, CIN v +Minnesota Vikings 

Miller has not come through for me, but I'm not one to quit on a guy so fast. The Cardinals have a solid defense, and I'm not sure how much damage the Seahawks receivers can do against Patrick Peterson's group. I would expect Miller to be one of the more available options for Russell Wilson.

Eifert might be sliding into starting TE duties against Minnesota, and that's a great thing.

K - Phil Dawson, SF v +Atlanta Falcons, Alex Henery, PHI v CHI

DEF - Kansas City v +Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions v +New York Giants     

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 15

Rob Gronkowski left the field, not to return for the rest of the year. (GETTY)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.PLAYOFF EDITION: We're not focusing on lower % owned players, but those with choice match-ups for the playoffs. 


Well, if your league didn't start the playoffs last week, they certainly are this week. What a way to kick things off. Week 14 was the highest scoring week in NFL history with 104 touchdowns total. Yes, if you didn't put up a lot of fantasy points this weekend, then I don't know what to tell you. 

As if the high scoring wasn't enough, there was a storm that passed through the East coast leading to some snow bowls. None quite as ridiculous as the Eagles and Lions game, which I attended. The snow fall was so severe in the first half that I left my plastic beer cup in the cup holder and within 15 minutes it was filled with snow. You couldn't really see what was going on 35 yards down field, and replays on the big screens looked like your cable went out. Note: LeSean McCoy was not affected.



So we have scoring, we have snow, we have fun gifs - what else? Well, there was a coach fired, another coach seeming wanting to be fired, a failed miracle play in Pittsburgh due to another sideline controversy, oh and Alshon Jeffery.

There's fun football weeks, there's great football weeks, and then there's Week 14. Well, for a small percentage of fantasy players Week 14 wasn't all snowballs and points. Yes, two major injuries went down. Rob Gronkowski, fresh of his multiple arm breaks, was hit low in a gruesome hit by Browns' safety T.J. Ward (at least it wasn't Bernard Pollard) nullifying him for the rest of the regular season and playoffs. The other injury wasn't as severe, but just as brutal for fantasy owners as Adrian Peterson picked up a foot injury. The most recent reports don't show Peterson's foot injury as serious - as in surgery serious - but will likely cause him to miss Week 15 and potentially sit out for the rest of the year as a precautionary measure because if you're the Vikings, really, what's the point of throwing him back out there?

Ideally, if you're a contending team you have solid back-ups, but it's a big blow regardless. The best part of the playoffs though is that you don't need Toby Gerhart to carry your hopes and dreams for 6 weeks, just a couple, and match-ups play a big part in possibly getting through these kinds of injuries.

God speed to you fellow fantasy players, and let's look at some Love/Hate (h/t +Matthew Berry , Flames/Lames (h/t Brad Evans).

Cam Newton is here to rescue you. (winsnlosses.com)


QB - Nick Foles, PHI @ +Minnesota Vikings, Cam Newton, CAR v NYJ

Yes, you can't keep Nick Foles down. You just can't! He's walking into another favorable match-up against the Vikings. I doubt the crowd in Minny will cause much of a fuss, and Foles should have time to pile up the stats. The one stat I heard that caused me some pause was that Foles - unexpectedly - is among the league leaders in seconds it takes to get rid of the football. You'd assume that in Chip Kelly's offense he'd be winging it around, and although this past weekend was a bad indicator of this as visibility was terrible in the first half, I did start to notice it watching some of his past highlights. This is certainly a kudos to the Eagles' offensive line, but should they have an off day, the Vikings do have the D-line to cause some issues.

It's hard not to have a love/hate relationship with Cam Newton. He can pile up the points with the best of them, but sometimes he just goes into stink mode and doesn't do anything. He is running at a higher clip recently averaging 9.45 yards per carry and had at least 2 touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 weeks. He gets the Jets at home, and he will be looking to bounce back from a poor performance in New Orleans.

If you're desperate: Jason Campbell, CLE v CHI, Ryan Tannehill, MIA v +New England Patriots 

These are both great match-up plays for two relatively low % owned quarterbacks. If Campbell can make it through the game, he can just launch balls to Josh Gordon all day and it just appears that Josh Gordon will undoubtedly catch them. Also as a note, last week's pick-up at TE Jordan Cameron came back to life with Campbell tossing him the football. A good sign all around.

The Dolphins and Bengals are both teams I quit on. The Dolphins around the whole bullying incident and the Bengals when they lost Geno Atkins and Leon Hall. Well, they've proven me wrong and cost me gambling dollars in the process. For all the conversation that goes around having young quarterbacks in the right situation, it certainly appears that Tannehill has been in anything but that. However, he's improved over the course of the year, and has a high floor. He's recorded double digit fantasy points in every game this year (his lowest output being 12.88 at New England in Week 8) and he's put up 19, 22 and 24 fantasy points the last 3 weeks at Carolina and on the road against the Jets and Steelers respectively. Pretty impressive, young Tannehill.

RB - Marshawn Lynch, SEA @ +New York Giants, Shane Vereen, NE @ +Miami Dolphins 

Yes, I love Shady McCoy and Jamaal Charles, but here are two lower projected backs that I think will have a big day. The Giants have only pride to play for, and the Seahawks will be travelling a long way for another road game after a tough loss to San Francisco. I would expect Lynch to see the ball a lot to set up Seattle's play action and to grind the game down after the Seahawks go up big. Take note of the stadium in New Jersey, Seahawks, you might very well be back there in a couple of months.

Vereen graduates from "If you're desperate" to start him this week. He established himself in a big way last week with 153 receiving yards, and with Gronk out there will be an even greater focus on Vereen and Julian Edelman.

If you're desperate: Alfred Morris, WAS @ +Atlanta Falcons, Ryan Mathews, SD @ +Denver Broncos 

Well, this Washington team is a mess. We're not sure who is starting for the Shanahan led squad, but if it's Robert Griffin III or Kurt Cousins it really won't matter for Morris. The run option plays that led to Morris' breakout campaign last year have been thrown out of the playbook due to their ineffectiveness, not wanting RGIII to run and get hurt, or both. When Washington trails, they don't run the ball, but this week, they won't have any other options. Now only if Shanahan would give Morris the red zone touches as well, we'd be on to something!

For all the ills that Mathews has caused in his career. Fantasy owners can't be disappointed in what he's given to them this year as a much lower round draft pick. The injuries are still lingering, but he's gotten steady carries and steady production. I do like him more than Toby Gerhart simply because the Eagles defense - who Gerhart will face - has been playing much better lately, especially at keeping teams out of the end zone. He's a good desperation play if your bench running backs consist of BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Lamar Miller, but Mathews has more upside.

WR - Calvin Johnson, DET v +Baltimore Ravens, Alshon Jeffery, CHI @ CLE, Andre Johnson - HOU @ +Indianapolis Colts, A.J. Green, CIN @ +Pittsburgh Steelers 

Lots of big time receivers lining up for big time games. You would think A.J. Green is a no brainier, and he really is, but while his season has been good, it's been spectacularly quiet. The numbers are there, but he's not in that top tier of receivers I thought he'd be coming into the season. Facing Joe Haden multiple times a season won't help, but you wonder if Andy Dalton is taking his toll on Green.

I'll never question Jeffery ever.


If you're desperate: Torrey Smith, BAL v +Detroit Lions , Anquan Boldin, SF @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN v +Philadelphia Eagles, Julian Edelman, NE @ +Miami Dolphins 

Two of these three are total home run plays. Smith and Patterson have the potential to go off. Smith is actually a very nice play against the Lions, and Patterson is starting to figure things out as of late. Boldin will likely be the guy not covered by Darelle Revis, which is always nice. Sorry, Michael Crabtree.

TE - Jordan Cameron, CLE v CHI, Charles Clay, MIA v +New England Patriots 

Cameron is back baby! And don't let the Cowboys' terrible performance Monday night fool you, the Bears' defense isn't very good.

If you haven't enjoyed a week out of Charles Clay then shame on you. The FAABulous favorite has 6 TD's on the year and is approaching 700 yards receiving. He's outperformed Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates.

If you're desperate: Delanie Walker, TEN @ +Denver Broncos, Zach Miller, SEA - v +New York Giants 

The tricky thing with Walker is he's a Thursday night play which, if it goes poorly, puts you in a hole. But he would be my #1 widely available addition to replace Gronk. Miller is a more risky play, but his match up in NJ is a favorable one. He has shown the ability to make a big play here or there, and he slightly beat out Brent Celek, who is even more TD dependent than Miller.

Plus, now we need more options at TE than ever since we can all accept that Ladarius Green is just a figment of fantasy experts' imagination and move on with our lives.

K - Stephen Gostkowski, NE @ +Miami Dolphins, Mason Crosby, GB @ +Dallas Cowboys 

People want to keep ranking Crosby so low, and I don't understand it. If the Aaron Rodgers injury benefited anyone fantasy wise it's Crosby, and he hasn't disappointed all year.

DEF - Carolina v +New York Jets, San Francisco @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Yes, you're playing Seattle against the Giants, and Kansas City is capable of still giving bad teams trouble, but Carolina going up against the Geno Smith or Matt Simms combo platter? Yippy skippy.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 10

Aaron Rodgers in street clothes is not what fantasy owners wanted to see Monday night. (nbcsports.com)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Sometimes I will ask myself why not just write FAABulous on Monday? I usually have more time, and this usually lousy Monday Night Football game is what's keeping me from getting this article up faster. It's a petty complaint I have, but it's quickly rebuffed as I realize things can happen on Monday Night. Not necessarily fantasy altering, but little nuggets here or there. 

Well last night, during an actually interesting MNF game, something very significant happened. On the first drive of the game, Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers was sacked and fell on his non-throwing shoulder. He did not return to the game.

There was growing concern this morning. ESPN's omnipotent Adam Schefter just reported that Rodgers has a fractured collar bone and will miss 3 weeks. Not as horrible a blow as many were thinking, but something that requires immediate attention. Gone is a favorable match-up for Rodgers against the Philadelphia Eagles, and with Seneca Wallace as the back-up there's nothing to see here.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago with a slew of injuries all over the field, that having depth is important. Now with a three week absence, and typically owners of the best fantasy quarterback not focusing too much on a QB2 it's time to attack the waiver wire. There's one guy I talked about for the past three weeks that could be of service, but there's also an unlikely candidate that was at Lambeau Monday night.


Jay Cutler says he'll be back 3 weeks ahead of schedule and start Week 10. (bleacherreport.com)
Jay Cutler, QB - CHI (31% owned) v DET

Cutler is reportedly coming back next week. I mentioned last week, that I Trust in Trestman so I was rewarded with a  stellar performance by Josh McCown. Both are intriguing options if you are a Rodgers owner, but you can get creative as Yahoo!'s Andy Behrens tweeted out last night.


Now that it is being reported that Rodgers is only out for 3 weeks, this is still useful info, but I doubt anyone has the FAAB/waiver priority to snag both quarterbacks.


Jake Locker, QB - TEN (37%) +Jacksonville Jaguars 

The beauty about Locker is that he has a high floor. The only time he put up less than double digit points was Week 1 against the Steelers. He doesn't turn the ball over and can run a little. These all equate to a safe 12-15 fantasy points. If you're team is stacked and you're confident in your offense, Locker presents a conservative add.

Case Keenum, QB - HOU (11%) @ ARZ

Case Keenum! Kevin Kolb has nothing on you! I gave Keenum a brief mention last week, but he deserves a full couple of sentences now. I'll say this, Keenum is why I dislike college football. The guy is the all-time leader in passing yards (by 2,000 yards by the way) and he can barely get an NFL job. I mean look at this list of Hall of Famers. Liking college football and liking the NFL is a non-sequitur. They play the same sport by name and there might be some similar positions and rules, but everything else is a disconnect. Keenum has looked good though, but he has a tough match-up in Arizona.

Andre Brown, RB - NYG (37%) v OAK

He's ready to be activated, but I would expect him to get going a bit slowly. Brown was basically the same as David Wilson statistically last year, but with Peyton Hillis still operating somewhat well, there's no push to get Brown going from day one. 

Riley Cooper, WR - PHI (9%) @GB

Foles is presumably starting next week in Green Bay, and he and Cooper have a great relationship on the field and it's shown. The two biggest games of his career have been with Foles under center, and you can never overlook how a new quarterback runs an offense. His tendencies and ability can open the door for some potential solid fantasy plays.  Also, he has to be breathing a sigh of relief that he's no longer the most hated player in the NFL. Although, I wouldn't exactly be sending Richie Incognito a thank you card.

TE du jour

One of the more overlooked injuries in a crazy week of shenanigans on and off the field is Kyle Rudolph. He hasn't been as good as advertised, but at this point with him out and anyone that owns him was probably twiddling their thumbs and hesitant to make a move, well now is the time. I mention a lot of TE here, so without beating a dead horse, there are two TE widely available in my Persons of Interest section I would go after. 


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Mike Brown, WR - JAX (11%) v TEN

So, Justin Blackmon gets suspended again for drugs and now everyone is flocking to Mike Brown? No. Just no. Oh, and by the way, if anyone ever complains about how Dez Bryant got passed on by all of these teams, this is the reason. Blackmon was selected 5th overall and has certainly been a bigger headache than he's worth for the Jaguars. 

THE 1%

Andrew Hawkins, WR - CIN (2%) +Baltimore Ravens 
FAABulous favorite Andrew Hawkins is back! He can fit in perfectly for what the Bengals need as a slot receiver who can take short passes and make big plays out of them. Depending on his health and what Marvin Lewis wants to do with Gio Bernard, this could be a great add.

And yes, we are at the point of the year where I'm upping the ownership to less than 5%.

PERSONS OF INTEREST

Nick Foles, QB - PHI (12%), Chris Ivory, NYJ - RB (45%), Mike Tolbert, RB - CAR (37%), Aaron Dobson, WR - NE (35%), Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (11%), Marlon Brown, WR - BAL (10%), Colby Fleener, TE - IND (50%)

Monday, November 4, 2013

Foles on Parade

More thoughts on Nick Foles. (cbssports.com)
Growing up in the burbs of Philadelphia, my life has been nestled in the warmth of Philly sports for as long as I've been alive. They're my passion, but for fantasy football purposes/writing something a lot of people want to read it doesn't make sense to breakdown every fleeting moment or hot topic story that goes on in the City of Brotherly Love. However, I'm going to indulge myself a bit with some Nick Foles thoughts. Thoughts which I've shared the past two weeks so this will be a third.

Trying to understand Foles to this point has been an impossibility. One week he looks to be collapsing under the pressure of a starting quarterback, while the next time he takes the field he's throwing 7 touchdown passes in a game. There really is no way to compute that in your brain. To rectify that this is the same person in both instances. A player with a 7.5 QBR one week and in his next start tallys a 99.1 QBR. Once more and for a final time, my stance on Foles is that he has the ability - through his accuracy, ability to protect the football, and quick decision making - to serve as a league average quarterback in this league, but I'm not sure he has the elite skill level to elevate to a Top 5 QB in the NFL. If he can become one of those 27 TD 4 INT type guys, then that is a huge win for him as a player. 

Clearly, hardly anyone knows what they have in Foles. What he needs to do is prove he can play week in and week out in the NFL. These sporadic performances won't fly, especially when it's against lesser opponents in games that don't matter or don't have a lot of pressure going into them. At that point, the Eagles will have a better idea about how to move forward.

Watching the game yesterday, if it's easy to pick apart a 7 TD performance, you probably can with Foles. The Raiders looked horrible both on the pass rush (give some kudos to the Eagles' o-line) and in the secondary. Two of Foles' TD's came off of Raider players falling down, and LeSean McCoy's TD catch appeared to  be the result of the Raiders not covering him and then not really feeling like tackling him as he scampered 25 yards for another touchdown, but hey, there's still 4 really nice scoring throws Foles made as well as other deep and intermediate routes. Foles has more to prove, but after that disastrous Cowboys performance, he did all he could to get right back in the driver's seat next week against Green Bay.

What the main takeaway from this game should be is a huge boost of support behind Chip Kelly. It's amusing that the most vociferous critics come out after two weeks in which Kelly started an injured Michael Vick and Matt Barkley. Scoring zero touchdowns is never acceptable, but I think Kelly deserved a bit more of a break than he was getting. Trotting those two quarterbacks out there in the condition they were in is basically sabotaging your own team. 

Locally, the build up during the week has been that people have been losing faith in Kelly. Rumors start churning, skeptics get big mouths, and it's an easy argument to win based on the past couple of games, but the video shows that there are opportunities created in this offense. The main priority is making the right decisions when those opportunities show themselves. Foles was able to do that and the team won despite losing time of possession and the Raiders racking up more total yards (the former is part of the plan and the latter is due to the Raiders playing catch-up most of the game).

The main issues moving forward with Kelly are more involved with his in-game coaching/decision making (play calling, replay review, time management, adjustments, etc.) that come along with being a head coach with zero NFL experience and his personnel decisions. His system is effective. It works. It's not tricks or magic, it's about creating mismatches out of a base offense and personnel on the field. Running a hurry up offense with versatile players that can line-up as needed to best expose those advantages his system creates (a must-read at Grantland). 

Ultimately, if Foles can become more consistent then he can play in the NFL. The Eagles won't have a top 10 pick in this year's draft and with so many holes on this team maybe going for a mid-range quarterback in the draft isn't necessary. Foles can function for the time being as the other weaker areas of the team are addressed. But if a quarterback the Eagles really want does fall to them in the upcoming draft, I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled the trigger. Like throwing passes, making a move for a franchise quarterback is best made when the play develops as it should and not forced under pressure.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 7

Nick Foles gets the Philly QB controversy conversation in full swing. (espn.go.com)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The major injuries that many fantasy owners seemingly avoided most of the year came crashing down on the shores of Fantasy Island over the past week. Most notably Julio Jones' injury ended his season, and more long-term injuries to Randall Cobb, David Wilson finally being diagnosed, Danny Amendola, Cecil Shorts, DeMarco Murray, and Michael Vick all led to major waiver moves being needed in Week 7.

While not the most significant, but the most intriguing, Michael Vick's hamstring injury opened the door for Nick Foles last week in Tampa and Foles took his first start of the season and ignited a QB controversy in Philadelphia. After filling in admirably after Vick limped off in New York two weeks ago, Foles started against Tampa Bay and threw for 3 TDs and ran for 1 more while amassing 296 passing yards, no turnovers, and a 89.8 QBR. 

We are all aware of Vick's ability and his positives and negatives, so let's take a look at Foles to see if he truly deserves to take Vick's job.

There's no denying that Foles has delivered some great performances so far under new Eagles' head coach Chip Kelly in 2013. Aside from one play for an injured Vick against San Diego and garbage time in Denver, Foles has show two key attributes that Vick has not: passing accuracy and protecting the football.

2013 REGULAR SEASON GAME LOGPASSINGRUSHING
DATEOPPRESULTCMPATTYDSCMP%AVGLNGTDINTQBRRATATTYDSAVGLNGTD
Sun 10/6@W 36-211625197647.88282084.6114.9310.330
NYG
Sun 10/13@W 31-202231296719.55473089.8133.3320.741
TB
Total385649367.58.75475087.2124.1630.541
*stats courtesy of ESPN.com

In over 56 passes he hasn't thrown an interception yet or lost the football. Despite his noted lack of running ability, his quick decision making has allowed him to thrive without the threat of breaking off a big run. 

As we dig a little deeper into Foles' 2013 we see he is clearly excelling in two key areas: the red zone and 3rd down. One additional item to Foles' red zone stats, Chip Kelly said that Foles' success compared to Vick's is that Kelly did a better job making play calls in the red zone more recently with Foles than Vick. Seems a little like falling on the sword, but something to keep in mind.

Looking at the third down numbers, Foles has remained consistent. He's only taken one sack on third down, and his completion percentage is at 80%. 


BY DOWNCMPATTYDSCMP%AVGLNGTDINTSACKRATATTYDSAVGLNGTD
DOWN = 1 OVERALL1625230649.244300133.3410.341
DOWN = 2 OVERALL132118361.98.7147201121.722130
DOWN = 3 OVERALL1215129808.637101124.700000

Sure, on 3rd and long defenses tend to drop back and protect the first down marker, but in 3rd down and 9+ yards to go Foles has an average of 7 yards per pass and a 75% completion rate, which compared to Vick's 25% completion rate and lone 45 yard run in similar scenarios purports to greater success for Foles in this key area.

Chip Kelly has repeated over and over again that he doesn't need a mobile quarterback for a team in  his system to succeed. Over the past couple of weeks, with Vick and Foles he's shown that to be true. Vick did have 79 yards rushing before he left the Giants game, but when Foles came in and was able to affectively throw the ball, it only made Vick's rushing yards seem like a byproduct of his inability to make the proper reads and quick decisions in this offense. Two things that have plagued Vick his entire playing career.

There is always another side to the story, so two of the biggest negatives you can say about Foles is that he's done this against an 0-6 Giants team and a Tampa Bay team that is on the verge of either a meltdown or a MRSA pandemic. Even if he plays well on Sunday, doubts will linger as Dallas has just as bad a pass defense. He hasn't had his leap game yet. Although keep in mind winning is winning, so an Eagles victory and solid Foles performance will undoubtedly push Vick to the bench.

The second negative is that Foles had his shot to impress last year under then head coach Andy Reid. Foles started 7 games that year, and even though the team was crumbling around Reid, Foles put in some lackluster performances. His QBR was a below average 43.1 and he had a near 1:1 TD/INT ratio. Again, this was under a different regime with a different scheme and a different team mentality, so while this is a point against Foles, I can't say that a young quarterback in a new system can't improve year to year.

So what if Foles is able to keep up his consistency and not turn the ball over? What if he's Kelly's version of Jeff Garcia? A player lacking natural talent, but can make quick passes, the right decisions and do that in a way that he's more than a game manager. The short answer is that Foles will start for the rest of the season and this is Vick's last year with the Eagles. The long-term is more complicated.

Can Nick Foles be the guy? In a quarterback heavy draft in 2014, would the Eagles be able to bypass taking a stud QB in favor of addressing the numerous needs on the defensive end of the ball? Does Chip Kelly really want Foles in there or does he want a more mobile quarterback that he can groom that has the skill sets Foles already has? 

Ultimately, I think that Foles can be an everyday quarterback in the league. I'm not sure he has the extra gear to become elite. The more and more you look around football, as the game progresses to a more pass happy system, you need an elite quarterback. Foles, for all his decision making and controlling the football, is still unproven long-term with those skills. If he can develop them, and be one of those single digit INT guys, then I'm all in, but more than likely his skills against high calibur defenses and over time will regress to league average. For all the things that Kelly says he needs in a quarterback, elite skill is probably high on his list. That's probably why he went with Vick to start the season. Vick has the elite skills of a quarterback in the rushing and throwing strength categories, but his decision making and accuracy are terrible. 

Where the Eagles realistically find themselves is 3-3 tied at the top of the NFC East with a big and winnable game. Anyone that has thoughts of tanking or this being a lost season is dilusional. The Eagles are looking to win games, and whether it's Vick or more likely Foles, they're going to do their best to make the playoffs. The way this year is shaping up, the Eagles toughest games are behind them and a lot can happen between now and December, but whether they win the division or finish 3-13 there will be a quarterback available where they are drafting. I believe they'll take one. That doesn't mean Foles can't make it a tough decision for Howie Roseman, but for what Foles has exhibited so far - I think he's our quarterback for good this year.


Joseph Randle will have plenty of open lanes against the Eagles. (fansided.com)

Nick Foles, QB - PHI (12% owned) v DAL

No matter how things work out, Foles looks to be the starter for this week against Dallas, and for that he's worth an add. An interesting side note whenver a new QB takes over is how he affects other teammates. Foles certainly seemed to find Riley Cooper a bit more than Vick did. Could Brent Celek get more involved? 

Joseph Randle, RB - DAL (3%) +Philadelphia Eagles 

While Lance Dunbar appeared to be the favorite to take over when DeMarco Murray went down, Dunbar's own minor injury has led to an opening for Randle. The 5th round pick hasn't shown much so far, but with DMM's injury history along with the Cowboys taking on the Eagles run defense, he's a quality add for this week.

Aaron Dobson, WR - NE (15%) +New York Jets 

Well, we can call of the search for productivity out of one Daniel Amendola this year. The Wes Welker replacement has gone according to everyone's plan except for the Pats and his fantasy owners. While battling through several nagging injuries, Amendola was on the wrong end of a brutal hit that knocked him out cold. League of Denial or not, Danny won't be back in action soon. So with Gronkwatch on-going, let's turn back to Aaron Dobson. We were witnesses to Dobson horrid early season play, but Tom Brady gave him 10 targets last week against New Orleans. Brady has already cured Kenbrell Thompkins so his next mission is Dobson. 

Jarrett Boykin, WR - GB (3%) v CLE

If Aaron Rodgers was doing Aaron Rodgers things then I'd be more aggressive with Boykin. I don't mind so much that Boykin had a couple key drops - I'll cut him some slack for that, but Rodgers can easily assist Boykin in having the game of his career any given week. With Randall Cobb avoiding major injury and James Jones banged up, this should be a no brainer, but while Rodgers is throwing the football like a mere mortal, I would imagine Jordy Nelson (covered by Joe Haden) and Jermichael Finley benefit more than Boykin.

Mike Tolbert/Jonathan Stewart, RB - CAR (6%/7% respectively) v STL

One for now, one for later. As much of a relief it was to see Cam Newton get back to his running ways for Carolina, they braintrust over there must know that they can't rely on Newton as their main running source. DeAngelo Williams is handling the field between the 30's kind of okay, but for the spots that matter Tolbert and potentially a health Stewart get stats where it matters. Stewart makes enough money that if healthy, he has to supplant Tolbert, so depeding on need, I'd keep these guys handy.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Brandon Jacobs, RB - NYG (26%) v MIN

When you watch Brandon Jacobs play like he did on Sunday, you wonder how he isn't a Hall of Famer. He's a big, big running back and when he gets a head of steam going, he is tough to bring down. Sadly though, he hardly runs that way any more - not that he did it that much in his prime either. He filled his role and always has a chance to plop into the end zone, but I'm not here to tell you he'll be getting 2 TDs per game the rest of the season (you know the answer to that already) I'm here to tell you he's not worth adding to your team.

THE 1%

Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (0%) +Atlanta Falcons 

Until we up the % of ownership on this group to 10% it's hard sometimes to not just make this the TE category, but with Wright I'll accept his selection as this week's 1%. The versatile and athletic TE is slowly emerging as a weapon, at least under the Mike Glennon era, and while the most optimistic hope for a Marques Colston clone, what we're really looking at is a viable red zone option on a horrid Buccs team that can't even get Doug Martin a romp to TD glory (only 1 TD all year). So long as Wright doesn't get MRSA between now and Sunday, I like him against a ravaged Falcons defense.