Fantasy Funkhouser: 2013 Season Wrap-up and 100 Predictions/Comments for 2014

Chris Davis was fantasy's breakout star in 2013. (rantsports.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

I always feel bad near the end of the fantasy baseball season. I read, write, focus a lot of time and energy into it, but much like the actual baseball season, as the conclusion of the regular season approaches it becomes harder and harder to focus on. Especially when you try to write about it semi-monthly the approach, advise, and outlook of things becomes so narrowed. I mean if Craig Gentry is the 2nd most valuable player in the final two weeks of the season, what kind of advice can one really give? 

That's not to say I don't follow all of my teams through to the end. If you're going to dedicate so much time throughout the year, then it's foolish to just bail out of disinterest in the last week or so. Overall though this was a great fantasy year. I had a lot of nice calls early on, and outside of some mismanaged teams of my own, I finished in the top 3 in every league - including a clean sweep of my ESPN leagues (a championship auction and 12 team roto). Yes, I will be participating in some Yahoo! Winner's Leagues as well.

The best thing about fantasy baseball for me is that it's a perfect combination of endurance, skill, and luck to make it through a season. Predictions and hopes may be greatly exceeded or frustratingly underminded, but that's what playing this game is all about. Shockingly a lot of my predictions (the first time I've put them out for the public to see) weren't embarrassing. Even the round for round rankings I did had some decent insight. Every time a season comes to a close, I immediately miss fantasy, but at the same time you need to take a break and recharge your batteries and clear your head. 

So as we depart and before the free agents and trades and injuries and hopefully recoveries (Matt Harvey!) I want to close this season with 100 predictions/comments for 2014.

1	Mike Trout should be the #1 player taken in all drafts next year. No question.
2	Clayton Kershaw should be the #1 pitcher taken in all drafts next year. No question.
3	Chris Davis is no fluke. Even if his average dips a bit, he still has 50 HR potential. Top 10 player.
4	Yasiel Puig will be a good player, but people will draft him more for his first half of the season than his second.
5	It really was the year of the Cubans. Jose Fernandez should continue his dominance on the lowly Marlins.
6	Ryan Braun is a Top 15 player next year.
7	My starting SS in many leagues next year will be Andrelton Simmons.
8	Cliff Lee keeps on ticking. One of his best seasons to date.
9	I'm glad Manny Machado avoided serious injury, but his 2nd half slide can't be ignored.
10	Paul Goldschmidt, welcome to the Top 10 in the fantasy ranks for a long-time coming.
11	Pedro Alvarez will join the 40 HR club next year.
12	Edwin Encarnacion will bash 40 HR's next year too.
13	Albert Pujols returns in fine form. Looking like he did his last year in St. Louis.
14	Jason Kipnis avoided a 2nd half swoon. Showed us what kind of player he is.
15	Adam Jones is always under valued, but his high K/BB rate always gives me pause.
16	Josh Hamilton is the reason Robinson Cano won't be getting $305M.
17	I think Cano stays a Yankee, unless the Dodgers really, really want him.
18	Domonic Brown was a pleasant surprise. Let's hope he's found a comfort zone in Philly.
19	I won't be completely comfortable with Giancarlo Stanton until he is out of Miami.
20	Joey Votto has become a better reality baseball player than fantasy.
21	Do not draft Brandon Phillips. He is not a top 10 2B next year.
22	It'll be interesting to see where Tim Lincecum lands.
23	Brandon Moss. Platoon star (.904) OPS against RHP.
24	Where will David Price go in the off-season? Hopefully not Texas.
25	Happy to see Eric Hosmer come into his own. I thought we'd see this next year, but he's back on track.
26	Matt Kemp should be just fine in 2014. Not as many steals, but he should come around from his shoulder issues.
27	Intrigued by Brett Lawrie at 2B, not at 3B.
28	I'd really like to see what Pablo Sandoval can do when he's in shape.
29	Stephen Strasburg will be over-drafted yet again.
30	I still believe in Anthony Rizzo.
31	Salvador Perez and Wilson Ramos. Draft them.
32	I'm not sure how long David Ortiz can keep this going, but I can't bet against him anymore.
33	The non-OF player with the 3rd highest SB total? Everth Cabrera, who was suspended for 50 games.
34	Bryce Harper's career numbers thus far: 42 HR, 117 RBI, 29 SB, .272 AVG. Seems like a good baseline for his 2014 production.
35	Justin Verlander fixed whatever is wrong with him. He's a Top 5 pitcher next year. Better than Scherzer.
36	Still don't see Homer Bailey as an "ace" or SP2. He's just too inconsistent and gives up too many HR balls.
37	Austin Jackson fell short of my expectations and was injured yet again. Might be time to reassess him overall.
38	Not sure what to make of Jean Segura's stats declining each month of the season. Can't be a good thing.
39	I'm out on Ben Zobrist. Versatility thy name has been replaced by Matt Carpenter.
40	Justin Upton is running out of time to be great.
41	Billy Butler is who we though he was. Not that good.
42	Mike Napoli is the 2nd ranked catcher. He's the 16th ranked 1B. He won't have C-eligibility next year.
43	Minus a severe ankle injury, Jose Reyes had a great first year in Toronto.
44	Michael Bourn. Black listed.
45	Joe Mauer IGWH (Is Good When Healthy).
46	Chase Headley showed some signs of life. He's not as good as 2012, not as bad as 2013.
47	Depending on the ranks, I'd be thrilled to have Cole Hamels as my SP3 next year.
48	How'd Coors treat Nolan Arenado? I'm not buying him.
49	Avisail Garcia. Keep your eye on him.
50	Alex Rodriguez won't play an inning of baseball in the majors next year.
51	Zack Wheeler is still a couple of years away from becoming dominant.
52	Matt Moore will not be on any of my teams next year.
53	1B is not deep and there doesn't appear to be any top prospects coming along any time soon outside of a certain Cuban.
54	If Elvis Andrus can keep stealing 40+ bases then he deserves to be in the Top 60 players.
55	Pitchers will adjust to Billy Hamilton. That doesn't mean he still can't lead the league in steals. By a lot.
56	Matt Carpenter will be underdrafted next year.
57	I'm out on Lance Lynn. Never again.
58	What Jason Heyward does in the post-season will greatly affect how I rank him in 2014.
59	Drafting a catcher early in a standard league continues to be a useless endeavour. Mike Piazza isn't walking through that door.
60	Will Venable is hitting LHP better than ever, but tends to get streaky in August. If he gets regular starts, 20/20 is one again doable.
61	Patrick Corbin overrated. James Shields underrated.
62	Not sold on Wil Myers yet.
63	It will be tough for me to put Hanley Ramirez in my Top 10 next year, but I really want to.
64	Will Middlebrooks has earned the 3B spot in the Sox line-up next year.
65	That means Xander Bogaerts should be next to him at SS. Xander didn't produce as well as hoped, but inconsistent playing time will do that.
66	I see Bogaerts as a lesser version of Manny Machado. Not creative, I know.
67	Some other pitcher on the Marlins is getting all the attention, but don’t sleep on Nathan Eovaldi.
68	I still believe in Jeff Samardzija.
69	Ike Davis. Black listed.
70	More big production rookies are coming in early 2014.
71	Depending on what the Yankees do in the off-season, this might be the start of many missed playoffs to come.
72	Ian Desmond now has two straight 20/20 years.
73	Oswaldo Arcia. Draft him.
74	Kyle Seager completely collapsed in the last month of the season. Don't let this dissuade you from taking him.
75	Chris Johnson probably won't get drafted next year, and rightfully so.
76	Looked like Prince Fielder was due for a down year, but he straightened himself out. Would still rather have Chris Davis than him in 2014.
77	Christian Yelich will get you double digit homers and steals. If only he played 1B.
78	Matt Wieters. Offensive catchers develop late.
79	Matt Harvey will pitch in the Arizona Fall League, but due to ineffectiveness opt for Tommy John surgery.
80	No thank you to B.J. Upton. Ever.
81	Alejandro de Aza is always underrated.
82	I still believe in Michael Saunders.
83	Jimmy Rollins is not a Top 12 SS next year.
84	Remember Nate McLouth's first half in 2013? Ride em while they're hot.
85	David Robertson could struggle as the new Yankees' closer. Not Jim Johnson struggle, but struggle.
86	Ubaldo Jimenez back? He has seemed to figure something out.
87	Jurickson Profar need playing time, but I'm not sure how he gets it on the Rangers in 2014.
88	Andrew Cashner ended the year healthy and productive.
89	Josh Donaldson is not a fraud. He's a Top 10 3B.
90	I still believe in Starlin Castro.
91	Daniel Murphy underrated.
92	There is just something I enjoy about Michael Brantley.
93	I'm shocked Freddie Freeman is this good. Last year people were saying he's better than Heyward. Turns out he might just be.
94	I'm not drafting Jonathan Papelbon.
95	Put the entire Houston Astros roster on my do not draft list in standard leagues.
96	Greg Holland has turned into the AL Craig Kimbrel.
97	The St. Louis Cardinals will be doing themselves a disservice if Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras aren't in the starting line-up on Opening Day.
98	Pitching is just so deep, and with the high rate of injuries, I'm just waiting and waiting next year.
99	Trevor Rosenthal will be valuable in whatever role he fills in 2014.
100	Most of these will probably be wrong, but I'm already missing 2013 and looking forward to 2014.

Fantasy Funkhouser: Baseball Ranks for 2013 - Round 3

Can Edwin Encarnacion flex his fantasy muscle again in 2013? (sportsnet.ca)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Quick revamp to the format - instead of listing the players by 12 at a time, easier to follow along by fantasy draft round in a standard 12 team league. And yes, due to my format change and generally lacking an idea for how to best lay these rankings out, #25 David Price should be on this list, but I already included him in Round 2. So, with my ranking mismanagement acknowledged; welcome to Round 3, playboy.

Things start to get interesting in Round 3. The first two rounds are reserved for studs, where pending injury or a statistical fall off - those players should produce. Round 3 offers a range of the worst kinds of players. The risky/high ceiling type.

In fact, Matt Cain's stability is why he finds himself at 26. I originally had Cole Hamels there, but early workout shoulder wonkiness has scared me off just enough to swap him with Cain.

Every other player has a substantial amount of question marks. Two of the three shortstops on the list aren't a guarantee to make it to even 120 games played, and the third (Starlin Castro) may have found some extra pop and steals under the Christmas tree for being a good boy, but lost 20 points in batting average and eclipsing 100 strike outs. With his complete lack of ability to walk, is this just a bump on the way to Castro fulfilling his 20/20 destiny - or is a drop off ready to show itself?

Edwin Encarnacion busted on the stage last year, much like his Toronto teammate Jose Bautista did in 2010. Joey Bats kept the ride going, but health will be a major contributor to Encarnacion. Along with him being only OF eligible this year (and likely only UTIL next year, dynasty owners) his value takes a ding.

I do like the two Rangers very much. Ian Kinsler suffers from what ails Castro - no BB's, high K's, but he appears to have shaken the injury bug that side tracked him for a couple of years and has checked into the 30/30 club twice in his career.

Adrian Beltre continues to be one of the most underrated players in fantasy. If his name was David Wright, people would be going bonkers. Aside from the steals Mr. Met brings to the 5x5 scene, Beltre can grip in and rip it. Oddly enough, in a world where players are remembered in the positive for a season or two over multiple years of shaky performance, Beltre seems to be penalized for a couple of lost years in Seattle; even though he hit 25 or more homers in 3 of the 5 seasons there. Since moving to Texas, he's been 30/100 and that includes only playing 124 games in 2011! Age is becoming more a factor, but there will be plenty of runners on base for him to drive home in 2013.

Finally, we have to mention poor Clifton Phifer Lee. He only won 6 games last year, although that's hardly his fault. His peripheral stats were very close to previous years - with his HR number and BABIP rising ever so slightly. After watching many of his starts last year, he certainly seemed to have it some nights, and not have it others, but keep in mind Lee wasn't a starter his whole career. He didn't cross 200 IP until his age 26 season, which is much more in line with how more modern pitchers are being brought along. Don't let his lack of wins scare you off. There's still plenty of gas left in the tank of the 34 year old. He certainly has it in him to finish a top 5 fantasy pitcher.

RANK

NAME

POSITION

26	MATT CAIN	SP
27	STARLIN CASTRO	SS
28	ADRIAN BELTRE	3B
29	IAN KINSLER	2B
30	EDWIN ENCARNACION	1B/DH
31	COLE HAMELS	SP
32	CURTIS GRANDERSON	OF
33	TROY TULOWITZKI	SS
34	DUSTIN PEDROIA	2B
35	JAY BRUCE	OF
36	JOSE REYES	SS
37	CLIFF LEE	SP

On Deck: Ryan Zimmerman, Jered, Weaver, Madison Bumgarner, Yoenis Cespedes

OVERALL RANKINGS THUS FAR

The most significant trade of the off-season finally transpired last week as Justin Upton was mercifully traded by resident looney tune GM Kevin Towers to the Atlanta Braves for Martin Prado and some average prospects. The trade reunited Upton with his brother, Bossman Junior, in the ATL, while the Diamondbacks would have traded arguably two of their three most valuable players in the past couple of months (Trevor Bauer being the other, and the argument being that Tyler Skaggs is better). In return, the Diamondbacks received far too little value for both Upton and Bauer.

Damnit, Towers! How could you trade me? Oh, it was Trevor. NVM.

I mentioned the younger Upton in my rankings last week, and although I approve of his move to the Braves as a means to rid himself of all the stress put on him due to the horrid mismanagement by Towers, overall it's hard to tell how it will affect his offensive output. I was already bullish on him by putting him at 17, so with peace of mind and a better line-up to bat in, I'll keep him there for now - with the caveat being his ceiling gets bumped up a couple of notches.

I'm biased about Upton. I have no qualms about saying that. He's on my dynasty team, and I traded for him 2 years ago also acquiring Cliff Lee for Clayton Kershaw and Tommy Hanson, in what probably still is, the biggest blockbuster trade in the league to date. While last year was a step back for Upton, the insistence on trading the 25 year old is crazy to me both in the real and fantasy realms. Let's look at some numbers.

In my curiosity, I started pulling some numbers for some of the more experienced OF in the game. Some players that have a track record that I ranked over Upton in Round 1 & 2. So no Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, or Giancarlo Stanton. I needed a little more statistical meat on the bone.

Below are some numbers for Upton along with the 4 other most valued OF in fantasy. Through their age 23-26 seasons I compared their WAR (5+ is considered elite) as well as wOBA (.400+ is considered elite) numbers. WAR represents the players overall value (defense included) while wOBA serves more of a fantasy purpose relating to pure hitting numbers.

The two main things I took away from looking at the numbers below: The first is that Upton killed the competition at age 23 in WAR and finished 2nd behind only Ryan Braun in wOBA. The second thing is a lot of the disappointment tied to Upton's 2012 might have stemmed from the fact that the jump from age 23 to 24 looks to be a significant one. All the players listed made significant strides in WAR and wOBA (outside of Braun's wOBA going down from .421 to .376). Upton's age 24 season was a disaster by those standards.

Player	WAR	wOBA	WAR	wOBA	WAR	wOBA	WAR	wOBA
	Age 23		Age 24		Age 25		Age 26
Ryan Braun	3.1	0.421	5.0	0.376	4.9	0.403	4.3	0.378
Andrew McCutchen	3.9	0.359	5.8	0.360	7.4	0.403	Will be 26 in 2013
Matt Kemp	3.5	0.345	5.2	0.362	0.5	0.329	8.8	0.413
Carlos Gonzalez	2.1	0.373	6.2	0.413	3.9	0.380	2.7	0.374
Justin Upton	6.4	0.385	2.5	0.341	Will be 25 in 2013
lockration.blogspot.com
Note: At age 23, Gonzalez played 89 games in the majors. Spending 48 games at the Rockies AAA affiliate.

As you continue to look down the road towards age 26, it hasn't been a steady climb for any of these players. We all remember Matt Kemp's age 25 season, otherwise known as the time he gave up on baseball and stayed in bed all day with Rihanna. Carlos Gonzalez has been on a steady decline since his possible career year at age 24. Andrew McCutchen has been progressing wonderfully, although his WAR numbers are boosted from his excellent fielding. His wOBA showed minimal improvement until last year.

Beyond these numbers, when you add on that Upton has been in the majors since he was 19 and already has another 4.8/.385 season (every other player on the list did very minimal work prior to their age 23 season) makes it even more curious why he was hustled out of town. There's nothing, outside of a down year last year, that indicates Upton will be a bust or anything worse than any of these outfielders, with his ceiling being Braun minus the batting average.

Of course, if you were getting Braun value in return, then yes - trade Upton, but after Diamondbacks dragging Upton through the mud and high balling trades for Jurickson Profar and almost getting a deal done  for Tijuan Walker (which was stupid from the get-go as Upton had Seattle on his no-trade list) effectively set and lowered what the Diamondbacks could get. Things became so caustic and the need to rid themselves of Upton became so apparent that the Diamondbacks couldn't even get Julio Teheran or some of the other name prospects they were interested in from Atlanta.

Whether Upton truly has a lazy or bad attitude or whether his thumb injury bothered him all last year, moving him now - at his lowest value - while he is scheduled to earn less than Shane Victorino over the next 3 years is beyond insane.

Ultimately, if the Diamondbacks did think they can't win with Justin Upton, then why not let 2013 play itself out. See how he performs. Odds are he won't do much worse than 2012, and he has the potential to get right back on the wagon as one of the best talents in baseball. The Diamondbacks would have been no worse off waiting a year.

What Kevin Towers and I can agree on is that this is a big year for Upton. If his power doesn't come back and his wOBA doesn't surpass the .370 mark approaching .400 then it's probably safe to say his career arch has changed. No one can know for sure. As a fantasy player, I do know that he's immensely talented, in a good situation with the Braves, and now has a big chip on his shoulder. Anything is on the table for Upton this year. He can be a top 5 player or settle near the back end of the top 100. It will be interesting to watch.

As for my only adjustment to the rankings, I can't keep Robinson Cano down. After starting at 11, Cano has shuffled his way up to 7th on my rankings. This mostly has to do with researching Upton and seeing CarGo's decline. Factor in his horrific home/road splits and injury history, and I had no choice but to bump Cano up. Especially if you're playing in a head to head league. Pending any updates that Kemp's shoulder is nagging him, I feel pretty confident the top 10 will stay as is moving forward.

RANK	NAME	POSITION	CHANGE	PREVIOUSLY
1	MIGUEL CABRERA	3B
2	RYAN BRAUN	OF
3	MIKE TROUT	OF
4	JOEY VOTTO	1B
5	ANDREW MCCUTCHEN	OF
6	MATT KEMP	OF
7	ROBINSON CANO	2B	↑	8
8	CARLOS GONZALEZ	OF	↓	7
9	ALBERT PUJOLS	1B
10	JUSTIN VERLANDER	SP
11	JASON HEYWARD	OF
12	CLAYTON KERSHAW	SP
13	PRINCE FIELDER	1B
14	GIANCARLO STANTON	OF
15	DAVID WRIGHT	3B
16	FELIX HERNANDEZ	SP
17	JUSTIN UPTON	OF
18	JOSE BAUTISTA	OF
19	EVAN LONGORIA	3B
20	STEPHEN STRASBURG	SP
21	BUSTER POSEY	C/1B
22	ADAM JONES	OF
23	JOSH HAMILTON	OF
24	HANLEY RAMIREZ	3B/SS
25	DAVID PRICE	SP
26	MATT CAIN	SP
27	STARLIN CASTRO	SS
28	ADRIAN BELTRE	3B
29	IAN KINSLER	2B
30	EDWIN ENCARNACION	1B/DH
31	COLE HAMELS	SP
32	CURTIS GRANDERSON	OF
33	TROY TULOWITZKI	SS
34	DUSTIN PEDROIA	2B
35	JAY BRUCE	OF
36	JOSE REYES	SS
37	CLIFF LEE	SP

The Funkman says: "Did you just compare Upton to Ryan Braun? The Hebrew Hammer?"