FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 10

Aaron Rodgers in street clothes is not what fantasy owners wanted to see Monday night. (nbcsports.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Sometimes I will ask myself why not just write FAABulous on Monday? I usually have more time, and this usually lousy Monday Night Football game is what's keeping me from getting this article up faster. It's a petty complaint I have, but it's quickly rebuffed as I realize things can happen on Monday Night. Not necessarily fantasy altering, but little nuggets here or there. 

Well last night, during an actually interesting MNF game, something very significant happened. On the first drive of the game, Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers was sacked and fell on his non-throwing shoulder. He did not return to the game.

There was growing concern this morning. ESPN's omnipotent Adam Schefter just reported that Rodgers has a fractured collar bone and will miss 3 weeks. Not as horrible a blow as many were thinking, but something that requires immediate attention. Gone is a favorable match-up for Rodgers against the Philadelphia Eagles, and with Seneca Wallace as the back-up there's nothing to see here.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago with a slew of injuries all over the field, that having depth is important. Now with a three week absence, and typically owners of the best fantasy quarterback not focusing too much on a QB2 it's time to attack the waiver wire. There's one guy I talked about for the past three weeks that could be of service, but there's also an unlikely candidate that was at Lambeau Monday night.

Jay Cutler says he'll be back 3 weeks ahead of schedule and start Week 10. (bleacherreport.com)

Jay Cutler, QB - CHI (31% owned) v DET

Cutler is reportedly coming back next week. I mentioned last week, that I Trust in Trestman so I was rewarded with a  stellar performance by Josh McCown. Both are intriguing options if you are a Rodgers owner, but you can get creative as Yahoo!'s Andy Behrens tweeted out last night.

If you were to play at Foles/Cutler platoon rest-of-season, these would be your DEF match-ups thru Week 16: GB, WAS, STL, MIN, DAL, MIN, PHI
— Andy Behrens (@andybehrens) November 5, 2013

...if you were to play that Foles/Cutler fantasy platoon, your final four matchups of season would be vs. defenses that allow 290+ pass YPG
— Andy Behrens (@andybehrens) November 5, 2013

Now that it is being reported that Rodgers is only out for 3 weeks, this is still useful info, but I doubt anyone has the FAAB/waiver priority to snag both quarterbacks.


Jake Locker, QB - TEN (37%) +Jacksonville Jaguars 

The beauty about Locker is that he has a high floor. The only time he put up less than double digit points was Week 1 against the Steelers. He doesn't turn the ball over and can run a little. These all equate to a safe 12-15 fantasy points. If you're team is stacked and you're confident in your offense, Locker presents a conservative add.

Case Keenum, QB - HOU (11%) @ ARZ

Case Keenum! Kevin Kolb has nothing on you! I gave Keenum a brief mention last week, but he deserves a full couple of sentences now. I'll say this, Keenum is why I dislike college football. The guy is the all-time leader in passing yards (by 2,000 yards by the way) and he can barely get an NFL job. I mean look at this list of Hall of Famers. Liking college football and liking the NFL is a non-sequitur. They play the same sport by name and there might be some similar positions and rules, but everything else is a disconnect. Keenum has looked good though, but he has a tough match-up in Arizona.

Andre Brown, RB - NYG (37%) v OAK

He's ready to be activated, but I would expect him to get going a bit slowly. Brown was basically the same as David Wilson statistically last year, but with Peyton Hillis still operating somewhat well, there's no push to get Brown going from day one. 

Riley Cooper, WR - PHI (9%) @GB

Foles is presumably starting next week in Green Bay, and he and Cooper have a great relationship on the field and it's shown. The two biggest games of his career have been with Foles under center, and you can never overlook how a new quarterback runs an offense. His tendencies and ability can open the door for some potential solid fantasy plays.  Also, he has to be breathing a sigh of relief that he's no longer the most hated player in the NFL. Although, I wouldn't exactly be sending Richie Incognito a thank you card.

TE du jour

One of the more overlooked injuries in a crazy week of shenanigans on and off the field is Kyle Rudolph. He hasn't been as good as advertised, but at this point with him out and anyone that owns him was probably twiddling their thumbs and hesitant to make a move, well now is the time. I mention a lot of TE here, so without beating a dead horse, there are two TE widely available in my Persons of Interest section I would go after. 

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Mike Brown, WR - JAX (11%) v TEN

So, Justin Blackmon gets suspended again for drugs and now everyone is flocking to Mike Brown? No. Just no. Oh, and by the way, if anyone ever complains about how Dez Bryant got passed on by all of these teams, this is the reason. Blackmon was selected 5th overall and has certainly been a bigger headache than he's worth for the Jaguars. 

THE 1%

Andrew Hawkins, WR - CIN (2%) +Baltimore Ravens 
FAABulous favorite Andrew Hawkins is back! He can fit in perfectly for what the Bengals need as a slot receiver who can take short passes and make big plays out of them. Depending on his health and what Marvin Lewis wants to do with Gio Bernard, this could be a great add.

And yes, we are at the point of the year where I'm upping the ownership to less than 5%.

PERSONS OF INTEREST

Nick Foles, QB - PHI (12%), Chris Ivory, NYJ - RB (45%), Mike Tolbert, RB - CAR (37%), Aaron Dobson, WR - NE (35%), Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (11%), Marlon Brown, WR - BAL (10%), Colby Fleener, TE - IND (50%)

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 7

Nick Foles gets the Philly QB controversy conversation in full swing. (espn.go.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The major injuries that many fantasy owners seemingly avoided most of the year came crashing down on the shores of Fantasy Island over the past week. Most notably Julio Jones' injury ended his season, and more long-term injuries to Randall Cobb, David Wilson finally being diagnosed, Danny Amendola, Cecil Shorts, DeMarco Murray, and Michael Vick all led to major waiver moves being needed in Week 7.

While not the most significant, but the most intriguing, Michael Vick's hamstring injury opened the door for Nick Foles last week in Tampa and Foles took his first start of the season and ignited a QB controversy in Philadelphia. After filling in admirably after Vick limped off in New York two weeks ago, Foles started against Tampa Bay and threw for 3 TDs and ran for 1 more while amassing 296 passing yards, no turnovers, and a 89.8 QBR. 

We are all aware of Vick's ability and his positives and negatives, so let's take a look at Foles to see if he truly deserves to take Vick's job.

There's no denying that Foles has delivered some great performances so far under new Eagles' head coach Chip Kelly in 2013. Aside from one play for an injured Vick against San Diego and garbage time in Denver, Foles has show two key attributes that Vick has not: passing accuracy and protecting the football.

2013 REGULAR SEASON GAME LOG			PASSING										RUSHING
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	AVG	LNG	TD	INT	QBR	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
Sun 10/6	@	W 36-21	16	25	197	64	7.88	28	2	0	84.6	114.9	3	1	0.3	3	0
	NYG
Sun 10/13	@	W 31-20	22	31	296	71	9.55	47	3	0	89.8	133.3	3	2	0.7	4	1
	TB
Total			38	56	493	67.5	8.75	47	5	0	87.2	124.1	6	3	0.5	4	1

*stats courtesy of ESPN.com

In over 56 passes he hasn't thrown an interception yet or lost the football. Despite his noted lack of running ability, his quick decision making has allowed him to thrive without the threat of breaking off a big run. 

As we dig a little deeper into Foles' 2013 we see he is clearly excelling in two key areas: the red zone and 3rd down. One additional item to Foles' red zone stats, Chip Kelly said that Foles' success compared to Vick's is that Kelly did a better job making play calls in the red zone more recently with Foles than Vick. Seems a little like falling on the sword, but something to keep in mind.

Looking at the third down numbers, Foles has remained consistent. He's only taken one sack on third down, and his completion percentage is at 80%. 

BY DOWN	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	AVG	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
DOWN = 1 OVERALL	16	25	230	64	9.2	44	3	0	0	133.3	4	1	0.3	4	1
DOWN = 2 OVERALL	13	21	183	61.9	8.71	47	2	0	1	121.7	2	2	1	3	0
DOWN = 3 OVERALL	12	15	129	80	8.6	37	1	0	1	124.7	0	0	0	0	0

Sure, on 3rd and long defenses tend to drop back and protect the first down marker, but in 3rd down and 9+ yards to go Foles has an average of 7 yards per pass and a 75% completion rate, which compared to Vick's 25% completion rate and lone 45 yard run in similar scenarios purports to greater success for Foles in this key area.

Chip Kelly has repeated over and over again that he doesn't need a mobile quarterback for a team in  his system to succeed. Over the past couple of weeks, with Vick and Foles he's shown that to be true. Vick did have 79 yards rushing before he left the Giants game, but when Foles came in and was able to affectively throw the ball, it only made Vick's rushing yards seem like a byproduct of his inability to make the proper reads and quick decisions in this offense. Two things that have plagued Vick his entire playing career.

There is always another side to the story, so two of the biggest negatives you can say about Foles is that he's done this against an 0-6 Giants team and a Tampa Bay team that is on the verge of either a meltdown or a MRSA pandemic. Even if he plays well on Sunday, doubts will linger as Dallas has just as bad a pass defense. He hasn't had his leap game yet. Although keep in mind winning is winning, so an Eagles victory and solid Foles performance will undoubtedly push Vick to the bench.

The second negative is that Foles had his shot to impress last year under then head coach Andy Reid. Foles started 7 games that year, and even though the team was crumbling around Reid, Foles put in some lackluster performances. His QBR was a below average 43.1 and he had a near 1:1 TD/INT ratio. Again, this was under a different regime with a different scheme and a different team mentality, so while this is a point against Foles, I can't say that a young quarterback in a new system can't improve year to year.

So what if Foles is able to keep up his consistency and not turn the ball over? What if he's Kelly's version of Jeff Garcia? A player lacking natural talent, but can make quick passes, the right decisions and do that in a way that he's more than a game manager. The short answer is that Foles will start for the rest of the season and this is Vick's last year with the Eagles. The long-term is more complicated.

Can Nick Foles be the guy? In a quarterback heavy draft in 2014, would the Eagles be able to bypass taking a stud QB in favor of addressing the numerous needs on the defensive end of the ball? Does Chip Kelly really want Foles in there or does he want a more mobile quarterback that he can groom that has the skill sets Foles already has? 

Ultimately, I think that Foles can be an everyday quarterback in the league. I'm not sure he has the extra gear to become elite. The more and more you look around football, as the game progresses to a more pass happy system, you need an elite quarterback. Foles, for all his decision making and controlling the football, is still unproven long-term with those skills. If he can develop them, and be one of those single digit INT guys, then I'm all in, but more than likely his skills against high calibur defenses and over time will regress to league average. For all the things that Kelly says he needs in a quarterback, elite skill is probably high on his list. That's probably why he went with Vick to start the season. Vick has the elite skills of a quarterback in the rushing and throwing strength categories, but his decision making and accuracy are terrible. 

Where the Eagles realistically find themselves is 3-3 tied at the top of the NFC East with a big and winnable game. Anyone that has thoughts of tanking or this being a lost season is dilusional. The Eagles are looking to win games, and whether it's Vick or more likely Foles, they're going to do their best to make the playoffs. The way this year is shaping up, the Eagles toughest games are behind them and a lot can happen between now and December, but whether they win the division or finish 3-13 there will be a quarterback available where they are drafting. I believe they'll take one. That doesn't mean Foles can't make it a tough decision for Howie Roseman, but for what Foles has exhibited so far - I think he's our quarterback for good this year.

Joseph Randle will have plenty of open lanes against the Eagles. (fansided.com)

Nick Foles, QB - PHI (12% owned) v DAL

No matter how things work out, Foles looks to be the starter for this week against Dallas, and for that he's worth an add. An interesting side note whenver a new QB takes over is how he affects other teammates. Foles certainly seemed to find Riley Cooper a bit more than Vick did. Could Brent Celek get more involved? 

Joseph Randle, RB - DAL (3%) +Philadelphia Eagles 

While Lance Dunbar appeared to be the favorite to take over when DeMarco Murray went down, Dunbar's own minor injury has led to an opening for Randle. The 5th round pick hasn't shown much so far, but with DMM's injury history along with the Cowboys taking on the Eagles run defense, he's a quality add for this week.

Aaron Dobson, WR - NE (15%) +New York Jets 

Well, we can call of the search for productivity out of one Daniel Amendola this year. The Wes Welker replacement has gone according to everyone's plan except for the Pats and his fantasy owners. While battling through several nagging injuries, Amendola was on the wrong end of a brutal hit that knocked him out cold. League of Denial or not, Danny won't be back in action soon. So with Gronkwatch on-going, let's turn back to Aaron Dobson. We were witnesses to Dobson horrid early season play, but Tom Brady gave him 10 targets last week against New Orleans. Brady has already cured Kenbrell Thompkins so his next mission is Dobson. 

Jarrett Boykin, WR - GB (3%) v CLE

If Aaron Rodgers was doing Aaron Rodgers things then I'd be more aggressive with Boykin. I don't mind so much that Boykin had a couple key drops - I'll cut him some slack for that, but Rodgers can easily assist Boykin in having the game of his career any given week. With Randall Cobb avoiding major injury and James Jones banged up, this should be a no brainer, but while Rodgers is throwing the football like a mere mortal, I would imagine Jordy Nelson (covered by Joe Haden) and Jermichael Finley benefit more than Boykin.

Mike Tolbert/Jonathan Stewart, RB - CAR (6%/7% respectively) v STL

One for now, one for later. As much of a relief it was to see Cam Newton get back to his running ways for Carolina, they braintrust over there must know that they can't rely on Newton as their main running source. DeAngelo Williams is handling the field between the 30's kind of okay, but for the spots that matter Tolbert and potentially a health Stewart get stats where it matters. Stewart makes enough money that if healthy, he has to supplant Tolbert, so depeding on need, I'd keep these guys handy.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Brandon Jacobs, RB - NYG (26%) v MIN

When you watch Brandon Jacobs play like he did on Sunday, you wonder how he isn't a Hall of Famer. He's a big, big running back and when he gets a head of steam going, he is tough to bring down. Sadly though, he hardly runs that way any more - not that he did it that much in his prime either. He filled his role and always has a chance to plop into the end zone, but I'm not here to tell you he'll be getting 2 TDs per game the rest of the season (you know the answer to that already) I'm here to tell you he's not worth adding to your team.

THE 1%

Tim Wright, WR/TE - TB (0%) +Atlanta Falcons 

Until we up the % of ownership on this group to 10% it's hard sometimes to not just make this the TE category, but with Wright I'll accept his selection as this week's 1%. The versatile and athletic TE is slowly emerging as a weapon, at least under the Mike Glennon era, and while the most optimistic hope for a Marques Colston clone, what we're really looking at is a viable red zone option on a horrid Buccs team that can't even get Doug Martin a romp to TD glory (only 1 TD all year). So long as Wright doesn't get MRSA between now and Sunday, I like him against a ravaged Falcons defense.