FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 13

"Hey, you're not Ronnie Hillman!" said Peyton Manning and fantasy owners. (Cannon City Daily Record)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Talking about fantasy sports is fun. Playing fantasy sports is fun. When it comes to predicting fantasy sports, that can be not so fun.

What is funny is that as soon as the business side of things comes into play regarding fantasy sports, things take a turn to the ugly. Sure in leagues among friends there's trash talk and the occasional blow up. Public leagues allow the mask of anonymity to allow some to be total jerk-offs, but in general there's just a sense of competition. As soon as someone pronounces themselves an expert or works for a big company like ESPN, then the attitude towards these 'experts' in fantasy change.

Their predictions and rankings become something sacred. Line-ups are set, add/drops are made, and of course FAAB money is spent largely based on these fairy tale prognosticators doing their job and getting that insider info out to the public.

No one tunes into a podcast or reads a fantasy football article to hear about how awesome Tom Brady is, or that A.J. Green is a pretty good wideout. No, these are all obvious and not very astute observations. What draws people in is the mystery. Who is the next big sleeper? Is this back-up running back going to take over the starting job? What do you think this 7th round rookie will do in Week 13?

Those more in-depth opinions are what fantasy experts are out there for, and as a result being an expert and being responsible for making these more difficult calls gets you grilled by the fans 95% of the time. 

"You told me to start Kenny Britt over Brandon LaFell!? Thanks for nothing, moron!" 

That's basically how I see things going. People that do go off on fantasy experts are clearly disappointed in their inability to make their own decision as well as putting a little too much emphasis on an industry where they are anointed experts.

Of course, in a world where everything is listed out or ranked, there would be a site that ranks these rankers. The overall mark equals out to about a D- in school grading terms, so across all experts the hit rate isn't all that definitive. 

I guess now would be a good time to state the obvious. I'm not an expert. I don't claim to be. Could I see myself being one? Yes, but at this point, I'm just a guy that loves sports and writes down some thoughts. My opinion is based on my own skills and probably on par with the next 20-something year old guy bellying up to a bar that serves some great microbrews. 

With that out of the way, to me, what makes an expert an expert is having a lot of good insights, and getting paid for those insights so he can focus his livelihood around researching, reading, watching games and doing all the things amateur fantasy fans or people that have to work for a living cannot do.

As a result they should be able to dig deeper; to search a little harder and look for the nuances of teams, games and match-ups which is why fans tune in to hear what the experts have to say.

One fact that many people appear to ignore is that the experts on their computer monitor or TV screen aren't necessarily the best at what they do. They're fantasy experts with personality. You need that presence to write interesting and fun columns or carry an hour long fantasy show on Sunday mornings. Unless there's a guy out there who can predict in the low 80% range, then no one is going to sit there and sift through pages of data and info for a guy who hits on 62.1% of his rankings as opposed to 61.1%. 

While fantasy players may not admit it in this new sabermetric world we live in, we still want to be entertained. Sure, it doesn't have to be lame jokes or puns, but interesting writing or an on-air personality is what players value just as much as who is right and who is wrong. If I'm lying then John Paulsen would have almost half a million Twitter followers. This isn't praising guys like Paulsen or shunning guys like Berry, this is just a note that fantasy experts come in different shapes and sizes. They bring different things to the table. But for this game, entertainment is paramount. 

In this game of, let's face it, failing grade fantasy analysis - it's impossible to be right a large percentage of the time. Fantasy experts go off of the same thing that guys like Mike Florio go off of. Information. So when being a fantasy experts basically invites you to accept failure and criticism all the time, I found it particularly rough this past week when an obvious add for Week 12 Ronnie Hillman was set to take over for the injured Willis McGahee and quite frankly looked primed to be a big impact player. Everyone was reporting this, but then hours before the game we were all out foxed. Out John Foxed. The Broncos head coach started the 2009 12th overall pick Knowshon Moreno. Moreno was a former high pick, yes, but injuries combined with a fumbling problem left him inactive for most of the season. So to suddenly see him in the game and starting nonetheless sent shockwaves through fantasy football.

Perhaps a great fantasy expert would have see the writing on the wall, but doing so would only be out of a gut call. There was nothing to suspect Moreno would start or be effective - well, except for Peyton Manning being involved. Sure enough, there were plenty of people freaking out and complaining about their fantasy team being ruined as a result of adding Hillman over Moreno. Again, I'm not expert, but I didn't even pick the right guy and I had two guesses.

Moreno's injury bug doesn't make Hillman an automatic drop, but it does suck for fantasy players and experts alike. Let's not feel bad for Scott Pianowski, Ray Flowers, Ladd Biro, and their ilk because they have awesome gigs, but let's not pretend that they are holding the answers to everything. Like most oracles in this realm, they are here to guide you, not tell you what path to take. 

So let's get nudged in the direction of some free agent pick-ups.

Bottoms up. (NY Daily News)

Knowshon Moreno, RB - DEN (21% owned) TB

Damn you fantasy experts! Damn you! Regardless if Hillman eventually steps in, Moreno has the gig now. He's a bigger back that might be preferred for his pass catching and pass blocking capabilities. After all, it's Peyton that makes this team run on offense.

Daniel Thomas, RB - MIA (26%) NE

Fantasy experts, why didn't you predict the Matt Forte injury and tell me to trade for Michael Bush! Well, Bush is owned in 57% of Yahoo! FFL so he doesn't qualify for this column. Of course though, if you can get him, do it. Bush has been underrated since he broke his leg near the end of his college career in Louisville. He's capable of monster games and sure handed at the goal line.

Daniel Thomas is available though. While he hasn't shoved the other Bush out of his way in Miami, Thomas is starting to come around in Joe Philbin's system. He's got some tough run defenses coming up, but weeks 15 and 16 he faces Jacksonville and Buffalo...who are not.


David Wilson, RB - NYG (15%) @WAS

Hey, remember David? That was all the way back in Week 1, but now Wilson has the opportunity to make his rookie not about if he cried or not after a fumble. Previous Lockration FAABulous pick Andre Brown unfortunately broke his fibula which opens up carries for Wilson behind Ahmad Bradshaw, and allows us all non-Bradshaw owners to player our favorite game of "There's no way Bradshaw can make it through the rest of the year, he has X injuries. Wait, how does he have 19.70 fantasy points? He's not stopping is he? Are we sure he's hurt?" I gotta think of a better title for that one.

Mark Sanchez, QB - NYJ (10%) ARI

Just kidding about Mark. Arizona is 28th in the league for most fantasy points allowed to QB's, but unless you're Fireman Ed, you can't believe in this guy. Although a nice QB to look at for a bench spot is Jake Locker. Since his return from a shoulder injury, the former Huskie has put up 14 and 16 points respectively. Even going against a not quite as good as you remember from the start of the year Texans D, his remaining schedule breaks favorably.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Cole Beasley, WR - DAL (0%) PHI

This is a half-hearted one, not because I don't think he's necessarily ownable, but the 5'8 Beasley was quite the Thanksgiving treat. As my family and I watched football, we loved seeing this guy fly all over the field for 7 rec 13 tar and 68 yards. With Miles Austin hurting, there's an opportunity for him, but I think the ball will be going other places, especially with DeMarco Murray due back...soon?

THE 1%

Joe Webb, QB - MIN (0%) @GB

You know he's coming. Christian Ponder is struggling and with Minnesota fading they need the sometimes WR-eligible QB to take the field. If the Vikings' fans aren't already in a Colin Kaepernick fueled rage, then I don't know football fans.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 5

Brian Dawkins emerges from the inflatable Eagle head one last time. (AP)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The Philadelphia Eagles retired the #20 from their uniform line this week. Honoring safety Brian Dawkins in a week long celebration of his career that culminated on Sunday Night Football with a halftime ceremony that nearly muted Bob Costas (if only).

The Eagles went on to beat the Giants to go to 3-1 on the season. With all the energy surrounding Dawkins' return to Lincoln Financial Field, I was partially serious when I posted to Facebook to see if the Eagles could hire Dawkins as Pre-Game Fire Up Coordinator/Last Player to Run Out the Tunnel-er. No one hypes up the fans like B-Dawk.

As a lifelong Eagles fan, Dawkins is without a doubt the most revered athlete in Philadelphia history. That's saying a lot considering 1. How bad Philadelphia sports teams have been and 2. How prone Philly fans are to destroy their athletes that fail to meet expectations (Eric Lindros, Donovan McNabb) (3a. Or even destroy those that do (Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins). There are few free passes in Philadelphia sports.

Not that Dawkins got one, but he was able to ascend the height of Philly fandom not by winning a championship (he never did), but by playing football the way Philly fans want the sport to be played. It's contrived to say it like that, but there was never a time watching Dawkins play where you ever felt he wasn't giving everything he had. The hustle was always there. The aggressiveness was always there. He was respected by the fans and feared by the opposition.

Even when he left Philadelphia for Denver in 2009, no one really held it against him like fans do Jayson Werth who moved to Washington for $126M*. He got paid like a top 3 safety, which he no longer was, and people knew Dawkins was past his prime.

*It's funny that Werth, who left for probably double of what he could have got in Philly get's crap from fans when he returns. People thought he was leaving for the money, and even if he was, he earned it. The guy had a broken wrist and was barely a utility guy in the majors when he revived his career in Philly. He way outperformed what he was getting paid, and at his age new this would be his last pay day in baseball. He'd be insane to not go to Washington. And as for people saying he was just about the money? The Nationals just won the NL East Title and the Phils have been out of playoff contention for 87% of the season. 

I think that the image of Dawkins really downplays just how good of a player he was. Everyone remembers the big hits and the timely interceptions, but Dawkins was able to do everything on the football field. Perhaps his most underrated trait was his ball hawking and coverage abilities. Look at the "Pro Bowl" corners the Eagles had while Dawkins was patrolling the secondary. Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, Rod Hood...these were dominant cornerbacks in the NFL. As soon as they left? After thoughts. Dawkins covered for a lot of mistakes in the secondary, and his pressure on the QB surely helped some interception numbers.

Behind Reggie White, Dawkins was the best player I've ever seen play for the Eagles. He's certainly left the most indelible images I have for football as well as Google (seriously, if you Google him, lots of cool/demon looking photos).

Any attempt to spit out how important Dawkins was to the Eagles fans would be a failed attempt. Great writers probably can, but I haven't seen anyone sum up exactly what this guy means. It's an honor to have his number retired forever. It's how it should be.

As NFL 2012-2013 Season: Revenge of the Replacement Refs reaches the quarter point, let's see who could still be out there to help your woebegone team.

Jackie Battle could find the end zone more this year than Ryan Mathews. (Getty)

Jackie Battle, RB - SD (24% owned)

People love Ryan Mathews. I'm not sure why, but they do. Norv Turner doesn't love Ryan Mathews. Norv Turner controls Ryan Mathews carries. I'd rather see how the head coach of the football team handles Mathews rather than fantasy fans. Mathews is too talented to be benched, but I could certainly see Battle getting a fair amount of carries and especially on the goal line. Plus, it's not as if Mathews has been the picture of health in his young career. Good flex play here.

Andre Roberts, WR - ARZ (17%)

I believe in the Cardinals a little. Confidence is a hell of a drug. While people are busy doubling Larry Fitzgerald, Roberts has come into his own as Kevin Kolb's possession type guy. Beanie Wells is hurt, again, and I don't like Ryan Williams much at all, so shockingly, this offense will have to go - conservatively - through Kolb. Let's file Roberts under the Titus Young/Alshon Jeffrey category.

James Jones, WR - GB (34%)

Maybe the Packers haven't been the juggernaut many people were expecting. Aside from Aaron Rodgers performance last weekend, he's left a lot to be desired. The key with Jones is that with Greg Jennings tweaked and pulled muscles there's a real opportunity for Jones to step up. He's been in this offense for a while, and he has caught an escalating number of TDs over the past 3 years (5, 7, and 3 already this year).

Greg Zuerlein, K - STL (17%)

A kicker? Yes, a kicker. Kickers should always be the last pick in your draft and Zuerlein is Exhibit E double F in the case for it. The rookie kicker crushed boots of 24, 48, 58, and 60 last week. He's got legit power in his leg, and kickers that explode onto the scene happen all the time. Don't they Dan Carpenter or Neil Rackers? Aside from his bye week, Zuerlein should be your starting kicker every week. He's in that nice cozy spot for kickers where he plays in a dome for his home games and his offense is good, but not great - leading to a lot of field goal opportunities.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Brian Hartline, WR - MIA (28%)

I'll give it to Ryan Tannehill (man, how many Ryan's have been mentioned already) he didn't look overwhelmed last week. He's definitely gotten a lot better since Week 1 when I was cackling with joy every time he attempted to throw a pass. His growth though does not equal to me buying Hartline. This early in the season, a monster game like the one Hartline put up would vault him to the top of the WR list, but his struggles against tough defenses along with the possibility of him getting #1 WR attention instead of Davone Bess makes Hartline a match-up only play, and not worth a splash of cash.

THE 1%

Here's something I've noticed in Week 5. The amount of players that are 1% available are basically 3rd stringers or players that are inactive. With that being said, I will now change The 1% section to include players owned is less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues! Makes sense, doesn't it?

Tim Tebow, QB - NYJ (9%)

As Dez Bryant showcased last night, there is a difference between being a good fantasy football player and a good football player. Tim Tebow is a good fantasy football player, and his resurrection in New York appears imminent. Mark Sanchez has been a total flop. You can factor in as many reason as to why this has happened, but it boils down to Sanchez not being good. If Sanchez can't show marked improvement in two weeks, you can expect Tebow to take big boy snaps with the starters. I would expect to see more Tebow oriented plays in the coming weeks. Tebow did finish with 18 total TDs last year and ranked 55. If you're like me and have Russell Wilson hanging around as QB2, may not be a bad option. I will be sad to see Sanchez go though. He will instantly make the Jets from a gambling perspective a "bet against," to an "I don't know what the hell to do" with Tebow involved.