FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 13

"Hey, you're not Ronnie Hillman!" said Peyton Manning and fantasy owners. (Cannon City Daily Record)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Talking about fantasy sports is fun. Playing fantasy sports is fun. When it comes to predicting fantasy sports, that can be not so fun.

What is funny is that as soon as the business side of things comes into play regarding fantasy sports, things take a turn to the ugly. Sure in leagues among friends there's trash talk and the occasional blow up. Public leagues allow the mask of anonymity to allow some to be total jerk-offs, but in general there's just a sense of competition. As soon as someone pronounces themselves an expert or works for a big company like ESPN, then the attitude towards these 'experts' in fantasy change.

Their predictions and rankings become something sacred. Line-ups are set, add/drops are made, and of course FAAB money is spent largely based on these fairy tale prognosticators doing their job and getting that insider info out to the public.

No one tunes into a podcast or reads a fantasy football article to hear about how awesome Tom Brady is, or that A.J. Green is a pretty good wideout. No, these are all obvious and not very astute observations. What draws people in is the mystery. Who is the next big sleeper? Is this back-up running back going to take over the starting job? What do you think this 7th round rookie will do in Week 13?

Those more in-depth opinions are what fantasy experts are out there for, and as a result being an expert and being responsible for making these more difficult calls gets you grilled by the fans 95% of the time. 

"You told me to start Kenny Britt over Brandon LaFell!? Thanks for nothing, moron!" 

That's basically how I see things going. People that do go off on fantasy experts are clearly disappointed in their inability to make their own decision as well as putting a little too much emphasis on an industry where they are anointed experts.

Of course, in a world where everything is listed out or ranked, there would be a site that ranks these rankers. The overall mark equals out to about a D- in school grading terms, so across all experts the hit rate isn't all that definitive. 

I guess now would be a good time to state the obvious. I'm not an expert. I don't claim to be. Could I see myself being one? Yes, but at this point, I'm just a guy that loves sports and writes down some thoughts. My opinion is based on my own skills and probably on par with the next 20-something year old guy bellying up to a bar that serves some great microbrews. 

With that out of the way, to me, what makes an expert an expert is having a lot of good insights, and getting paid for those insights so he can focus his livelihood around researching, reading, watching games and doing all the things amateur fantasy fans or people that have to work for a living cannot do.

As a result they should be able to dig deeper; to search a little harder and look for the nuances of teams, games and match-ups which is why fans tune in to hear what the experts have to say.

One fact that many people appear to ignore is that the experts on their computer monitor or TV screen aren't necessarily the best at what they do. They're fantasy experts with personality. You need that presence to write interesting and fun columns or carry an hour long fantasy show on Sunday mornings. Unless there's a guy out there who can predict in the low 80% range, then no one is going to sit there and sift through pages of data and info for a guy who hits on 62.1% of his rankings as opposed to 61.1%. 

While fantasy players may not admit it in this new sabermetric world we live in, we still want to be entertained. Sure, it doesn't have to be lame jokes or puns, but interesting writing or an on-air personality is what players value just as much as who is right and who is wrong. If I'm lying then John Paulsen would have almost half a million Twitter followers. This isn't praising guys like Paulsen or shunning guys like Berry, this is just a note that fantasy experts come in different shapes and sizes. They bring different things to the table. But for this game, entertainment is paramount. 

In this game of, let's face it, failing grade fantasy analysis - it's impossible to be right a large percentage of the time. Fantasy experts go off of the same thing that guys like Mike Florio go off of. Information. So when being a fantasy experts basically invites you to accept failure and criticism all the time, I found it particularly rough this past week when an obvious add for Week 12 Ronnie Hillman was set to take over for the injured Willis McGahee and quite frankly looked primed to be a big impact player. Everyone was reporting this, but then hours before the game we were all out foxed. Out John Foxed. The Broncos head coach started the 2009 12th overall pick Knowshon Moreno. Moreno was a former high pick, yes, but injuries combined with a fumbling problem left him inactive for most of the season. So to suddenly see him in the game and starting nonetheless sent shockwaves through fantasy football.

Perhaps a great fantasy expert would have see the writing on the wall, but doing so would only be out of a gut call. There was nothing to suspect Moreno would start or be effective - well, except for Peyton Manning being involved. Sure enough, there were plenty of people freaking out and complaining about their fantasy team being ruined as a result of adding Hillman over Moreno. Again, I'm not expert, but I didn't even pick the right guy and I had two guesses.

Moreno's injury bug doesn't make Hillman an automatic drop, but it does suck for fantasy players and experts alike. Let's not feel bad for Scott Pianowski, Ray Flowers, Ladd Biro, and their ilk because they have awesome gigs, but let's not pretend that they are holding the answers to everything. Like most oracles in this realm, they are here to guide you, not tell you what path to take. 

So let's get nudged in the direction of some free agent pick-ups.

Bottoms up. (NY Daily News)

Knowshon Moreno, RB - DEN (21% owned) TB

Damn you fantasy experts! Damn you! Regardless if Hillman eventually steps in, Moreno has the gig now. He's a bigger back that might be preferred for his pass catching and pass blocking capabilities. After all, it's Peyton that makes this team run on offense.

Daniel Thomas, RB - MIA (26%) NE

Fantasy experts, why didn't you predict the Matt Forte injury and tell me to trade for Michael Bush! Well, Bush is owned in 57% of Yahoo! FFL so he doesn't qualify for this column. Of course though, if you can get him, do it. Bush has been underrated since he broke his leg near the end of his college career in Louisville. He's capable of monster games and sure handed at the goal line.

Daniel Thomas is available though. While he hasn't shoved the other Bush out of his way in Miami, Thomas is starting to come around in Joe Philbin's system. He's got some tough run defenses coming up, but weeks 15 and 16 he faces Jacksonville and Buffalo...who are not.


David Wilson, RB - NYG (15%) @WAS

Hey, remember David? That was all the way back in Week 1, but now Wilson has the opportunity to make his rookie not about if he cried or not after a fumble. Previous Lockration FAABulous pick Andre Brown unfortunately broke his fibula which opens up carries for Wilson behind Ahmad Bradshaw, and allows us all non-Bradshaw owners to player our favorite game of "There's no way Bradshaw can make it through the rest of the year, he has X injuries. Wait, how does he have 19.70 fantasy points? He's not stopping is he? Are we sure he's hurt?" I gotta think of a better title for that one.

Mark Sanchez, QB - NYJ (10%) ARI

Just kidding about Mark. Arizona is 28th in the league for most fantasy points allowed to QB's, but unless you're Fireman Ed, you can't believe in this guy. Although a nice QB to look at for a bench spot is Jake Locker. Since his return from a shoulder injury, the former Huskie has put up 14 and 16 points respectively. Even going against a not quite as good as you remember from the start of the year Texans D, his remaining schedule breaks favorably.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Cole Beasley, WR - DAL (0%) PHI

This is a half-hearted one, not because I don't think he's necessarily ownable, but the 5'8 Beasley was quite the Thanksgiving treat. As my family and I watched football, we loved seeing this guy fly all over the field for 7 rec 13 tar and 68 yards. With Miles Austin hurting, there's an opportunity for him, but I think the ball will be going other places, especially with DeMarco Murray due back...soon?

THE 1%

Joe Webb, QB - MIN (0%) @GB

You know he's coming. Christian Ponder is struggling and with Minnesota fading they need the sometimes WR-eligible QB to take the field. If the Vikings' fans aren't already in a Colin Kaepernick fueled rage, then I don't know football fans.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 8

Pass happy and catch crazy, Vincent Jackson almost had 3 TD's on Sunday. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The NFL Regular Season is coming up on the half way point this week. A moment of silence as we reflect on a season that, as per usual, always feels like it just started. While it's about that time to make some season declarations (Note: idea for next week's column) we can still focus on the overall scope of the league. As mentioned a couple of weeks back, while running backs have been featured more this year than last, there are some guys that still like to throw the ball around. As such, match-ups are certainly there to be exploited, and with those poor match-ups comes the most volatile position in fantasy football, the wide receivers.

Value of wideouts are always minimized simply because any given week any stick-um-less player that runs routes can haul in 2 TD's and lah-dee-dah you're getting 18 points out of a guy projected for 4.50 - right, Randall Cobb?

In Week 7 there were 6 WR in the top 21 in scoring for the week. The first (#2 ranked scorer*) Vincent Jackson was a yard away from finishing #1 overall. Cobb was the third ranked scorer followed by Victor Cruz (who pulled off a 77 yard TD catch in the last minute of the game), the on-fire Jordy Nelson, and then 44-year-old Santana Moss (thanks for extending my career, RGIII), and Andre Roberts (former Lockration pick-up selection). So out of the top 6 scorers at wide receiver their average projected draft position was 88.3. 

*Per Yahoo! FFL the ranks are dictated not by overall points, but factors in that along with position and probably some other values and calculations that I have no idea about.  Jackson was technically the 4th highest scorer, but since he's a WR he was ranked #2. Make sense? Kind of? Well whatever, my point is going to remain the same.

While declaration time may have to wait a week, the group of QB's and RB's are certainly more solidified than they were earlier in the season. Jobs are less likely to be won or lost (and those jobs that are lost do you really want the new hire - John Skelton and Felix Jones, much?). Wide receivers offer the best opportunity for a big swing in production. It just so happens there are some talented receivers available in many leagues that could boom over the next half of the season. Let's focus on them first, then some RBs. Also, as we move along in the season, match-ups become more and more important, so I'll highlight who the player is playing in the upcoming week. 

As we throw our cash in the air, let's see who's hauling it in.

If Chris Givens is as good as he thinks he is, he can be a playmaker rest of the season. (Getty)

Titus Young, Sr., WR - DET (26%) SEA

Young had his best game of the season Monday night against Chicago, and yes, that is saying something. His 6 receptions tied his season high and his 81 yards set his season high. The only negative was he didn't score a TD, but apparently the Lions don't do that anymore. He had the second most targets behind Calvin Johnson, Young's longest reception was 23 yards, so he earned his 81, and Nate Burleson left the game with an injury. With zero run game to speak of and teams somehow figuring out how to negate MegaTron, it looks like after a rough start, Young could fulfill his sleeper status many experts had him pegged for. Although his talent was never in question, just what goes on in his cranium during the game. 

Chris Givens, WR - STL (6%) NE

Speaking of head cases, Givens does fall into this category. He has, what us Arsenal fans like to call Nicklas Bendtner disease. Basically it's unbelievable confidence in yourself and abilities, while things like sight and video and performance tend to work against your delusions. While some one's mouth can get them into trouble, Givens abilities have started to shine through in St. Louis as a deep threat.

Brandon LaFell, WR - CAR (20%) @CHI

While no one bought the Panthers early proclamation by now injured offensive lineman Ryan Kalil that these Panthers were Super Bowl threats, the wheels have really come off for Carolina. After the arbitrary mid-season firing of their GM, the Panthers are 1-5 and seem to be heading nowhere. For all Cam Newton did last year, he's been largely ineffective in this offense. Steve Smith hasn't continued his renaissance of last year, and the Carolina running backs...well they're nothing to tweet about.  One positive out of the narrow loss to Dallas last week was the delayed emergence of LaFell. He appeared to be the perfect counter to the speedy Smith, but with the Carolina offense in such a rut, who knows how or why things weren't clicking properly. His match-up this week is not good at all, but if you look past this week there are some goodies against Washington, Denver, and Tampa.

Andre Brown, RB - NYG (42%) @DAL

There was potential for a Brown breakout after Week 3, but a concussion and Ahmad Bradshaw have cooled that fire a bit. Brown came back to minimal work last week, but should build on that moving forward. Bradshaw is also battling a foot injury, but as we saw last year, that may not be enough to keep him out of a uniform. David Wilson may be more of the future, but for heavy workload, Brown has shown he can do it. 

Rashad Jennings, RB - JAX (27%) @GB

Here we go again. Maurice Jones-Drew lasted all of two plays last week due to some sort of foot injury. He's already been ruled out this week against Green Bay, and odds are it'll be a couple more weeks after that. Foot injuries aren't only tough to diagnose, they're tough to come back from. After all the contract posturing that dogged MJD in training camp, I'd be sure he'll take his time coming back from this. Now, Jennings is a serviceable replacement level back. But with this team, and this offense, I wouldn't want to own any Jacksonville players. If you're desperate for touches, then shoot for Jennings, but again, some players are back-ups for a reason. They just aren't that good.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

LaRod Stevens-Howling (18%) SF  

As mentioned before, we've been down this road. Felix Jones showed us how this usually plays out. In case you're talking yourself into LRS-H simply based on carries let's try to use some facts to dissuade you. 

He is averaging 3 yards per carry. The undersized back plays San Francisco next week, and after that Beanie Wells is supposed to return. The rest of the schedule after that is brutal. I'm not convinced he even still is the primary back with William Powell running well. Last week might have just been going with the hot hand.

He has an up-up-up hill battle to return any kind of fantasy value this year.

THE 1%

Vincent Brown, WR - SD (3%) INJURED

It's not out of the question that when Brown returns from injury around Week 9 that he'll be the best wide receiver the Chargers have. Sure there are issues with that team, but getting reps above Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem shouldn't be impossible to do.  For all that ails Philip Rivers this year, the one thing he continues to do is throw the football. Whether it ends up in the hands of a guy with lightning bolts on his helmet or the other team is completely up in the air, but that suits Brown's game very nicely. Good preemptive strike opportunity here.