Looking for a Fight @ UFC 165: Jones v. Gustafsson

Jon Jones launches a jump kick against Ryan Bader. (mirror.co.uk)

Two and a half years ago Jon Jones fought Ryan Bader. Both were undefeated, both had a lot of hype and potential behind them, and the winner was pegged to be a pretty big deal in the UFC. Jones won convincingly, and he's certainly become a big deal.

With combination of some issues outside of the ring, dominance in it, and a luke warm relationship with fans, Jones has become the UFC star that has the potential to sign the brightest. Deals with Nike and Gatorade (?) have given him the two biggest "on shorts" sponsors in the UFC, and surely he must be in the running to be on the cover of the new EA Sports UFC game.

As we've followed the career and watched the development of Jones as a fighter in the UFC and as an entity in media, it has always been interesting to see how Jones continually tries to develop his media persona. He wants to fight and be the best fighter ever, but at the same time it's confusing how a man who - when he's not trying - comes off as very aware, intelligent, and captivating. When he is at his most distant is when he tries to be someone other than himself or live up to the image of what he thinks he should be.

He's gone from aw shucks, to cookie-cutter fighter mode, to cocky and arrogant, to comfortable in his own skin, to slightly awkward at times, and where we stand today a man at peace looking for new challenges.

Surely, though it must be difficult to restrain any hubris when your job and your success has come from beating up the toughest guys on the planet. Georges St-Pierre certainly does that and does it well. And despite many less fan pleasing performances than Jones, is the most beloved fighter the UFC has. With all due respect to GSP, the UFC does not want another version of him.

The UFC is looking for that marketable star that wants the limelight and can become the guy that everyone and their mother knows. In Jones they have that, and he wants to be that. While his in-ring product might be approaching a polished product at 205, his out of ring persona is far from complete.

What the UFC wants is Floyd "Money" Mayweather. The undisputed champ of boxing and pay-per-view, excuse me May-per-view. Money is as big as the sport itself, maybe bigger. His persona is every bit as perfect as his boxing ability. While Mayweather is a devisive figure, what he does is get a whole lot of people's attention. People want to see him fight whether he wins or loses. People are drawn to him because the idea we all have of Floyd Mayweather is compelling, but honest. You may not like or agree with how he carries himself or lives his life, but what you see is what you get. With Jones, you don't get that feeling. You get the feeling that a part of him would rather be Ronda Rousey.

Jones is beginning to discuss other interests. Whether it's getting into movies or boxing a Klitschko brother Jones is looking for challenge that, frankly, the UFC's light heavyweight divison can no longer offer him. Who knew being the best of the best at something at 26 would be so unfulfilling?

For Jones, the compelling part for him, the challenge is to become an icon and stir an emotion inside of fight fans that compel them to be invested in what he does. To want to watch him. That's a challenge, and that's also a big part of what will bring him the attention, earnings, and fanfare he desires.

Rousey go there faster because she has a crazy story, is an Olympian, is fiery, and is beautiful. People want to know what she's doing.

People are just as inclined to shrug their shoulders when Jones is on SportsCenter.

Jones may be at peace or confident he'll beat Alexander Gustafsson this weekend at UFC 165 in Toronto, and that's fine. But he shouldn't make the fans watching him be indifferent. Talking about how Gustafsson doesn't do anything better than him, or that Gustafsson is mistaken to have a "stick and move" boxing strategy and wax poetic about the art of boxing itself isn't what people want from Jones. He has to make more of an effort, not to be likable, but to just be a person of interest. The answer about what works for Jones is an unknown. Who should he try to emulate? Ah, but that's it, he shouldn't try to emulate anyone at all. It's a matter of how to make yourself as compelling a figure as possible using the tools that God gave you.

As crazy and as mixed up as it sounds, the audience that will be entralled with Jones' pure excellence in the Octagon is much smaller than the audience that is intrigued about a figure or a person (i.e. Kardashian, Kim). There's a part to Jones that seems to think this is all figured out and wins and movies and money and cars and fame and legendary status are all but promised through hard work and dedication, but the truly legendary figures always have a bit more going on than that.

BREAKDOWN

Nitpicking over a champions past fights is never worth it. Fighters fight who is out there at the time. That moments best of the best or best available. Just because Anderson Silva fought Patrick Cote doesn't make him any less of fighter. When you deal with these upper echelon fighters, a lot of opponents they go up against won't seem up to snuff. The names of Rua, Rampage, Machida, Evans, Belfort, and Sonnen are all marquee wins. None outside of Sonnen were complete gimmies, and we all know what Sonnen is capable of. If this was the BCS (RIP!) then Jones would have built up quite the compelling case. Certainly, Jones' severe height and reach advantage has been played up ad nauseum, but it could also be argued that Bones hasn't taken on a fighter at or near his prime since Bader

You can cross both of those items off the list this Saturday when Jones fights Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165. A fighter that is by all means approaching his prime. Again if you want to nitpick, you can say Gustafsson isn't ready yet. Sure, but people didn't think Jones was either when he fought Shogun to win the title on a quick turnaround.

Gustafsson has improved each fight, especially after a submission loss to Phil Davis that exposed his lack of wrestling. Gustafsson actually began training with Davis after that fight to improve. This is an evolving fighter who has showcased a wide variety of skills and a great ability to use his length and body control to give opponents a tough time.

That reach is actually no advantage against Jones who sports the longest reach in all the UFC. Both men will be heading into the fight with, likely, very different strategies. While Gustafsson has worked on improving his wrestling, his game is his boxing and his distance. People are wondering how Jones will handle someone of similar size in the Octagon with him, but I'll be interested to see how Gustafsson does the same.

Bones, will likely want to box and strike with Gustafsson. He doesn't appear to have any doubts when it comes to how good his striking is, and he really shouldn't. Hardly anyone has taken less damage in their fights than Jones. The most severe injury he had was from his own doing against Chael Sonnen when he severely dislocated his big toe pushing Sonnen up against the cage.

We have seen Gustafsson's chin in action, but not Jones'. Undoubtedly, at some point Jones will take this to the mat, where it'll be up to Gustafsson to get back on his feet. These are two major advantages that Jones has.

After the Siva-Weidman fight, there are some extra nerves in the air about champs taking things a little too lightly. While Silva more likely served as a cautionary tale for Bones, it's hard not to wonder if maybe he is a bit more focused on a movie role than a big Swede. I feel it myself, but in all of Bones' fights no matter how big or small he's never been out of control. Never been reckless or in danger. Now, he can't avoid danger at his own behest, but the being in control part is vital.

It's reaching that point where Jones wants the standing KO finish in the UFC. I doubt that'll happen in this fight. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight actually started off rather dull. Jones won't force any engagement and if Gustafsson is too concerned with keeping his distance we might hear some boos early on. Ultimately though, things will start moving, and depending on when Jones moves this fight to the ground, that's probably where it will end.

Jones by 3rd round submission.

Looking for a Fight: UFC 159 - Jones v. Sonnen

Jon Jones' greatest weakness has been exposed. His fight promotion. (USAT)

Sports coverage always does seem to amaze me. In a realm where there are more and more avenues for message boards, talking heads, and articles to be written to see many people that cover the UFC simply write-off Saturday night's Jon Jones v. Chael P. Sonnen fight as an afterthought is lazy and not a service to people that read their content. After all, sports in general, and especially combat sports, are built around the humongous upset. The fact that at anytime on any field, in any arena something crazy could happen. That may not mean enough to you to plop down $54.99 for a pay-per-view, but tossing $10 to the door man to have the fight on while you enjoy a microbrew at your local bar sounds fine and dandy to me.

Sure, this fight was put together from the ashes of UFC 151, and while a more credible challenger like Dan Henderson was left to marinate a little - only to lose to Lyoto Machida - leaves a bitter taste in everyone's mouth, it's easy to forget that we've been down this road before. When Sonnen took on Anderson Silva there were just as many doubters about the validity of that fight as this one. Well, Chael P. Sonnen put on an Oregon style butt whooping on Silva, until the Spider was able to wrap his legs around Sonnen and tap him out with seconds left. This was easily the best fight of 2010.

There are other factors that make the Jones' match-up different and probably a higher mountain top to ascend, but if anyone is capable of doing it and at the very least give Jones the toughest fight of his career, it's Sonnen.

The media coverage has fueled the blase fan reaction to this card. While normally the UFC can put Silva, Jones, Georges St-Pierre, or Cain Velasquez to headline a card and fill it with average fights - this time, with a fight that truly is being treated like a foregone conclusion, the card needed to be stronger. It isn't.

Where we are left is for Jones and Sonnen to hype the fight themselves. Oh, that's right, they had 15 hours of TV time on FX to do that during The Ultimate Fighter. What came from that was Jones being Jones and Chael being a great coach and mentor. However, and ironically for the betterment of the show than faking some hostilities, Jones and Sonnen seemed to get along. Jones respected Sonnen's doggedness and personality and jokes (!!); while Sonnen clearly has a lot of respect for Jones. There isn't the hostility and trash talking he's exhibited in the Silva bouts, and with Jones finally laying off the perfect guy act - is just being his normal, confident, fun loving self. This isn't to say both fighters won't put on their mean hats Saturday night, but their promotion of the fight wasn't exactly Nick Diaz-esque (again, that's probably for the betterment of everyone).

So with the trash talking/promoter belt being strapped around Diaz's waist, the UFC and the two fighters had to do something. There were rhymes by Sonnen alluding to Jones' DWI conviction. Jones saying Sonnen is a roider and not a true fighter. None of it resonated. It's clear that in all the press leading up to the fight, these two had their minds in other places.

Jones wants to win a couple more 205 title defenses to beat Tito Ortiz's record, then move on to a super fight and/or bump up to the heavyweight division (which is only logical as by the time he has his two more defenses he would have cleaned out the division and be about a year older, which will allow him to put on more weight). Sonnen isn't a legit threat to Bones, rather just another victim.

For Sonnen - he's reaping the rewards of being a self-made man. Kevin Iole mentions in his article today how Sonnen created this personality to drive his career. It's sure worked. Now moving up to 205 and taking on one of the best fighters on the planet, everything seems lined up for move to greener pastures. Should (notice I said should) Sonnen lose, then his shtick would have certainly worn thing ... still entertaining, but thin. He has a fantastic broadcast career in front of him with the UFC for sure, and UFC President Dana White hinted within the FOX family as well. Sonnen isn't a threat to Bones, rather just one more big pay day.

BREAKDOWN

While writers covering the fight could probably outline 75% of their day after articles today if they wanted, there is still the pesky matter of the fight. I'm of the persuasion where if one of the best fighters on the planet is fighting, I'm watching. I said this when Anderson Silva fought Stephan Bonnar and I say that today. I mean how much fun was that Anderson fight? Did he make it worth your money? Were you not entertained?

Sonnen is certainly more of a threat than Bonnar was to Silva, but shouldn't you expect Jones to put on a show? To leave people saying, wow this guy is talented? A couple elbows to the chiseled chin of Chael won't do that. Jones is coming, and Jones is bringing some Nike swag with him.

The most disappointing outcome of this fight would be for Jones to wrestle and hold Sonnen down. The size disadvantage is too great to have this be an exciting or interesting strategy (see, I got your back, GSP). We need some flying kicks and knees. We need something to put on that Nike commercial.

Bones has never been reckless in any fight, but he hasn't been conservative either. Sonnen won't stop moving forward, and he'll create an interesting canvas for Jones to work with.

Overall, I do think Chael will aim to impress, but without the full use of his elite wrestling it'll be tough. I just think Chael's determination will give Jones a bit more trouble than we are all expecting. However, I'm not here to act like a genius. To predict Sonnen wins so I can say I told you so. It'll be a Jones win, but I'll be tuning in to see how he does it. That ... will be exciting.

Jones 3rd Rd Submission.

Looking for a Fight: UFC on FOX: Henderson v. Melendez

What path will Daniel Cormier take? (facebook.com)

Hear that? That's the sound of another bad pun related to the Uriah Hall hype train. It was a week ago today many were wondering how Ultimate Fighter finalist would fair against Anderson Silva after he dispatched co-finalist Kevin Gastelum with some kind of highlight reel kick.

Well, that didn't happen.

Hall lost, and if he can't rebound from that, we can file him away with Todd Duffee, Brandon Schaub, Ryan Bader, Phillipe Nover, and Houston Alexander as failed next big things. Note that all but two of those fighters came from TUF. That UFC is pretty good at hyping their fighters.

The next, next big thing is chugging towards San Jose Saturday night as Daniel Cormier is set to make his UFC debut against former champ and tattoo makeover star Frank Mir.

Cormier is coming in with some different creds than his predecessors. Cormier is an Olympic wrestler, who since his jump to MMA hasn't tasted defeat. The 34 year-old is 11-0, and the winner of the inaugural Strikeforce Heavyweight Grad Prix where he defeated Antonio 'Bigfoot' Silva (who is fighting Cain Velasquez for the belt next month) and Josh Barnett who is one of the best heavyweights of the past decade.

The rise of Cormier in this sport has surprised even himself, but what truly separates Cormier from not only Hall, but a lot of fighters is his supreme confidence. All along the way Cormier has thoughtfully responded to questions like would he fight his American Kickboxing Academy teammate Velasquez for the title? (No, he wouldn't). Would he like to fight Jon Jones? (Yes, he would at heavyweight or at light heavyweight). The responses aren't one of arrogance, but of confidence.

Competing at the highest levels of athletics his entire life allows him to know within himself that he is ready and can succeed at anything MMA can throw at him. Thus far, he's proved himself right.

At 5'11, Cormier is a stocky heavyweight, heck, at that height he'd be a stocky welterweight. But his agility and endurance make him a handful to deal with. His build is not lean, but that of a brick shithouse. Bumping shoulders with him would probably be tantamount to brushing past the HP Pavilion itself.

His striking will never be able to match with the elite heavys or 205'ers, but once he is able to get a fighter to the ground, his strength and ability to keep you there is like struggling against quicksand ... you'll only get pulled down deeper.

Of course, there's always something intimidating about going against someone that has no fear. Cormier is certainly one of those guys. It is his confidence, though, that could get in his way.

The seemingly predetermined nature where Cormier will defeat Mir on Saturday sets him up for either a fight for the heavyweight belt, should Velasquez lose, or a drop down to 205 to fight Jones. Leaving the heavyweight division doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Sure, he doesn't want to fight Velasquez, but in a weak division his star power could be a much needed addition for the UFC - especially since to get there, he would have to put Mir out to pasture as a legitimate contender.

A move to 205 is risky in that Cormier has had weight cutting issues in the past - one instance led to kidney failure and an inability to participate in his second Olympics - and on top of that, fighting Jones is no easy feat. On top of that, Jones' time at 205 appears to be coming to an end before his eventual move to heavyweight. You have to appreciate the doggedness that Cormier is showing, but he might be taking on more than he can - causing a lot more harm than good.

First thing is first though, and as Uriah Hall can let him know - you have to handle your business on fight night before you can take another step forward.

BREAKDOWN

It's certainly possible that Cormier's fight on Saturday won't be his toughest to date. Mir hasn't looked competitive since he broke Big Nog's arm, and since then, well it appears Big Nog shouldn't be fighting anymore. He got a gimme bout against Junior dos Santos and was comically knocked out, and the years are mounting on Mir.

He moved his camp away from Las Vegas to Greg Jackson's camp in Albuquerque, NM to gain better focus and train with some more elite fighters. Jackson has a way of making fighters better, but even his mantras and juju might not be enough for Mir against Cormier.

As noted before, Cormier is an extremely confident fighter. So I'd expect him to want to come out and throw some strikes with Mir. Test the waters and take some joy in his UFC debut. But when the time comes, I expect much of this fight to take place on the ground.

One of the more interesting style match ups I always like to watch is jiu-jitsu vs. wrestling. It's interesting because both styles are set on the ground, and there are some many intricacies to body control and manipulating the right move at the right moment in order to be successful.

Surprising to me is that most of the time, wrestling wins. That's what I expect out of this fight. If Mir can't hang with Cormier on the ground, then this is going to be a quick fight. Mir's opportunity is to capitalize on the ground or surprise Cormier with an overhand right. Which, for Mir, has become his only viable strike in his arsenal.

As I said, I don't view Cormier as arrogant, just confident. He is well prepared and ready to continue his evolution as a complete fighter and move onto his goal of being a UFC champion. While I probably give Mir a better shot than most, I still see Cormier as being too much for the former champ.

Cormier by 2nd Round TKO.

Looking for a Fight: UFC 154 Part I

It's no coincidence that GSP's return is also the return of the big main event. (ufc.com)

It's been 19 months since Georges St-Pierre stepped into the Octagon. A small span of time in the grand scheme of the UFC, but leading up to UFC 154 Saturday night at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada, it's a wonder that the UFC survived without him.

As per usual, the UFC landscape has changed over the past year and a half, but it's clear that the impact of it's biggest star (sorry, Jon Jones, fans hate you a bit too much to wrestle that title from GSP) and biggest draw can still sculpt valleys and mountains like a great glacier, cutting to the heart of what makes the UFC so great and what fans pine for during every pay per view. The best of the best putting on a show. Fighters that masterfully blend all aspects of martial arts into a dominant and awe inspiring performance.

In what has been mostly an injury riddled and disappointing year for the UFC, GSP is shining a very bright light as 2012 comes to a close. So far he's been able to provide an intriguing comeback story (complete with "I've go my fire back" quotes!), set up a great fight between himself and interim champion Carlos Condit that can and is single-handily carrying a pay per view that will easily surpass 600K buys, starred in one of the most entertaining UFC Primetimes in a long time, led to rumors of an Anderson Silva v. GSP mega-fight at Cowboys Stadium and everything that goes along with that (mainly will Anderson enter the ring should GSP win on Saturday to what beach will Anderson be sipping mai thais on during his "vacation"...even though we all know his posturing is just free publicity for his movie with Steven Seagal).

So for Part I of this two part Looking for a Fight, let's focus on GSP, because basically there isn't a person in the fight world right now that can't do anything but that. Sorry, Carlos, I'll get to you soon.

The surprising story line that emerged from GSP's rehab process isn't that his rehab was tough, that he faced some self-doubt; as these are all things that I'm sure most top level athletes will go through, but rather that GSP frankly has stated that in his last couple of title defenses he was a much more dour GSP. He became engulfed by the business side of fighting, viewing each match-up as a chore rather than a chance to compete. This makes everything about being a fighter more arduous. Training, strict dieting, sparring, the aches, the pains, and knowing that every morning you wake up, you'll be going to sleep maybe a little better but a lot more frustrated.

I found an interesting take on this part of the process (training and the day to day grind as opposed to the actual fight itself) in Grantland's piece yesterday about Rembert Browne's trip to NFL HQ to visit the set of NFL Red Zone. The always seeming caffeinated host of Red Zone Scott Hanson (he doesn't drink coffee!) mentioned this:

Deion and Sapp and all those guys will tell you, when they played, you didn't need to pay them for Sunday. You pay them to come to practice every day and do film work and all that other stuff that was kind of drudgery. Game day they would do for free. This is the fun stuff.

That's it right there.

When athletes or a person with a seemingly glamorous position say they'd do this for free, they probably would. The this being playing on Sunday, acting in a movie, or whatever. The payment part comes from the droll of training and mentally preparing and sitting in a trailer memorizing lines. That mundane stuff is where payment is owed. Getting to go out there and perform your craft, to put it on display, that's the payoff for all that work.

GSP had lost even that. There was no payoff for him. It was just knock one down and move onto the next one. And knowing what we know about GSP, it wouldn't be a big leap to suggest that being one of the top pound for pound fighters on the planet, being the undisputed welterweight champ, to take on each day with those kinds of expectations and pressures, sure that along with the business side of things could squelch any man's flame.

The knee injury is what freed GSP of these burdens. It broke him from his routine of train, press conference, fight, win, train, press conference, fight, win - and gave him that always powerful "perspective on things."

Due to that injury, he had to deal with the possibility that he'd never be the same guy again. That he'd lose even a portion of that athleticism that made him such an elite fighter against all types of opponents. His agility and explosiveness allowed him to implement his game plan with expert precision in order to become a truly dominant mixed martial artist.

Also, as he witnessed from afar, the UFC trucks along. An interim title was set up between Condit and Nick Diaz. Coincidentally, it was Diaz who essentially took the title shot back from Condit after Diaz trash talked his way to GSP and certainly made Georges show some fire.

Training for that fight is when he tore his ACL, and sent him down a different path with new challenges.

For the first time since he entered the Octagon in 2002, there was no clear path for him. He was either focused on winning fights, getting to the title and defending the title. Now, he was in some kind of champion limbo. Not quite fighting for the championship, but not quite fighting to win it back. He had to prove to himself that he wanted to get back in the cage. He had to prove to himself that he still has the drive and fire to be not one of the greats, but the greatest fighter at 170.

When GSP comes out of the tunnel with his customary karate gi on Saturday night, he would have proven to himself he found those things in his year and a half journey back to the UFC. Internally he knows. That fire is burning bright and his butterflies are flying in formation. Now, he'll be out to prove to everyone else that the best GSP possible is back, and he'll do it in one of the toughest fights of his career.

Tomorrow in Part II, the fight breakdown...