FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 16

Bad weather? Chicago defense? Neither of these should have stopped you from playing James Jones. (nbcsports.msnbc.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

It's the most wonderful time of the year. Well, unless you were facing Russell Wilson or opted to play the Ravens' defense over those hapless Arizona Cardinals.

There are no right answers in the last couple of weeks of the fantasy football season. It seems like there are more pitfalls and traps on the way to that championship than on a course in Mario Kart. And that perception is, in fact reality. Match-up plays and hot streaks are all well and good in Week 4, but when the season is on the line, and you're looking at a match-up between one of your proven studs and a riskier pick - that can be a recipe for disaster.

Waffling on starting certain players is the norm for fantasy sports; especially football. It's why every sports site on the planet has rankings, projected stats, start 'em/sit 'em advice, etc. People have a need to know who to start.

Where these playoff weeks come into picture is that after a long season, you are at max capacity for information on these teams and players. Virtually everyone on your roster has either carried you to victory in some weeks and subsequently no-showed in others. Teams have been good, bad, and everything in between. Combine that with the added pressure of the playoffs, well it's easy for your heard to swirl.

The luckiest of us didn't have too many tough choices. You start Tom Brady, you play Adrian Peterson, or you sit Robert Griffin III. Of course those aren't the choices that get us burned. Those choices are around the WR3 spot or the TE spot, or if we're playing matchmaker with Kickers and D/ST.

In these cases, I always say stick to your guns. Clear your mind, and as you meditate to approach nirvana - in that moment - you select your line-up. Trying to reduce a season's worth of Chris Johnson stats to see if he's a good play this week only to have him be outscored by Danny Woodhead would make you crazy enough, let alone be a huge waste of your time.

It may seem short sighted to go with the "live by the sword, die by the sword" strategy at this point of the year, but you can ask everyone that started Josh Freeman against a horrible New Orleans pass defense over, well, basically anyone - how they feel.

Perhaps there is no better example of over thinking leading to the collapse of a championship run than James Jones. A FAABulous favorite, Jones has stepped up for the Packers all year and he continued that pattern last week nabbing 3 touchdowns and leading all WR in scoring.

But that sounds great, right? Right, it does.

But thanks to some over analyzing and nerves, the current leading touchdown receiver in the NFL was only started in 32% of leagues. How can this be? A guy with 9 TDs going into the game, hardly started in any leagues?

Well, here's the anti-Jones argument. He was facing the Chicago Bears defense in Chicago. The weather was not great. Also, with Jordy Nelson out, Jones could count on some more attention being thrown his way. Furthermore, as a player, Jones had only put up one double digit performance (10 points) in his previous 4 games. Continually, with only 51 receptions on the year, you're basically banking on Jones hauling in a score to be productive. In conclusion, I'll start Sidney Rice over him.

Now, there certainly were reasons to be hesitant in this one-time match-up, but in a standard Yahoo! league with three wide receiver spots, Jones should have been an automatic based on his work all season.

Taking a flier on a Justin Blackmon, Lance Moore, or even T.Y. Hilton type player left you on the short end of the stick.

There's not much roster moving needed for Week 16. You have your squad, and if you're still playing then you should be in good shape. But there are some positions to be weary of (like RGIII's injury and the fact that Terrelle Pryor is now a starting quarterback in the NFL). So I'll make some mentions of deeper adds and match-up plays for kickers and D/ST you should be on the look out for to close out the 2012 season. Same rules apply, though - owned in less that 50% of Yahoo! FFL.

It took until Week 16, but time to shine the FAABulous spotlight on some defense. (newstimes.com)

QB's - Here are some QB picks in case your starter is dinged up or has been shaky.

Guys I'm talking about: RGIII (injury), Matthew Stafford (ATL), Andy Dalton (@PIT), Josh Freeman (STL)

Russell Wilson, SEA (35% owned) SF

We are still doing this? At this point I'd add Wilson so your opponent can't get him.

Sam Bradford, STL (22%) @TB

Bradford has been a top 10 QB over the past 4 weeks. Put up more points than Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning. It would be ideal to have him in a dome, but no one has given up more fantasy points to opposing QB's than the Bucs.

Jake Locker, TEN (17%) @GB

The move for Locker is for a cheap, high floor guy. The weather in Titletown forecasts as sunny, but frigid. Not great passing weather. But for Locker he doesn't turn the ball over, and all he needs is a passing TD to go with his rushing yardage and you have a solid 14 points.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Joe Webb, MIN (0%) @HOU

Here's a picture. Vikings down 30 points, Houston clinched home field, and with their 3rd stringers, here comes Joe Webb. Garbage time can be a beautiful thing.

TE's - There have been a lot of up and down TE's this year. If you have a fringe guy or someone that's been struggling lately, you have to go get someone that will put up points.

Guys I'm talking about: Brandon Myers, Kyle Rudolph, Antonio Gates (bad QB), Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek (no shows)

Dennis Pitta, BAL (5%) NYG

Speaking of ups and downs, Pitta looked like a Pro Bowler, then disappeared for the last 8-9 weeks. But he appears to be back on Joe Flacco's limited radar. Take a shot while he's still gravitationally pulling passes to his body.

Lance Kendricks, STL (1%) @TB

What applies to Bradford applies to Kendricks. Tampa has given up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends this season. With the Bucs tough run defense, another 50+ attempt day for Bradford isn't out of the question. Opportunities abound.

Dallas Clark, TB (25%) STL

Clark hasn't been very productive. Between Doug Martin being an attractive check down option and the big play offense of the Bucs, Clark has been a lost man. The pass attempts will need to be at a high number for Clark to get receptions, but a TD isn't out of the question.

Anthony Fasano, MIA (5%) BUF

Two straight weeks have meant two straight TD's for Fasano. Are him and Ryan Tannehill beginning to click, or is it just a coincidence? Against an average Buffalo secondary, it might be worth trying to find out.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Benjamin Watson, CLE (4%) @DEN

I mentioned the Bucs were good for 6th most points allowed to TE's, well Denver is numero uno. Number 1.  The TE opposing that team is Mr. Watson. If anyone can come out of nowhere and nab you a high point total or leave you with a goose egg it's Watson.

FOR ALL YOU STREAMERS OUT THERE

Made your bread this season by picking and choosing kickers and D/ST. Slow clap for you, potential fantasy champ. You've done it the hard way. Here are a couple streamers I like heading to the final week.

Kickers - 

Olindo Mare, CHI (1%) @ARZ

Robbie Gould was placed on the IR, so Mare is back, and he booted 2 FG's at Green Bay. Like him in a controlled environment in the Midwest desert.

Alex Henery, PHI (17%) WAS

Henery has been sneaky good this year, connecting on 25 of 28 field goal opportunities. But, such is the plight of the place kicker, they can only perform when put in a position to perform. In their previous match-up in Washington, Henery had 8 fantasy points as the Eagles' only scores that game. I'd expect them to put a couple more points on the board, and get Henery some more opportunities.

Phil Dawson, CLE (25%) DEN

It's going to be unseasonably warm in Denver with no rain or snow and a light breeze. At high altitude with that breeze at Dawson's back, he should put up good points as his Browns have trouble putting the ball in the end zone.

Defense/Special Teams - 

Indianapolis (6%) @KC

Indy is pretty self-explanatory going against the Chiefs. For all the chaos that has happened to the Chiefs recently, they were already a defeated team, and I see no reason for them to show up against a Colts team heading to the playoffs.

Carolina (10%) OAK

I already mentioned the Pryor situation, and while the Panthers leaky run defense raises some eyebrows against the Raiders, overall they should be fine.

St. Louis (31%) @TB

Backed by two Janoris Jenkins TD's in Week 12, the Rams have actually been the 2nd highest producing fantasy defense in the last 4 weeks behind Seattle. They can pressure the QB and have shown the ability to put up double digit fantasy points. Aside from a hiccup last week, depending on what Josh Freeman shows up, the Rams' defense has a high upside in Week 16.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 9

Michael Vick was Andy Reid's choice. And while it looked brilliant for a season, it's been a precipitous drop from glory. (AP)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

As I mentioned last week, this week would be declaration week. A time in which teams have shown their true colors and we can safely assess their prospects as well as individual player "realness" in regards to continued performance and ability to produce through the second half of the season. Hot streaks be damned, each player and team has had more than enough time to put up or shut up.

The Eagles, and not just Michael Vick, are falling apart.

On Sunday, the Eagles lost their first game ever in Andy Reid's tenure after a bye week (12-1). Now that record does mean a little something, but ultimately it's more a novelty record than anything. Overreacting to a crushing loss to the only unbeaten team in football is nothing to be up in arms about, but for the first time in Reid's career in Philadelphia, this team truly seems lost. Appropriately the Eagles dawned black jerseys because Sunday might as well have been a funeral.

There have been good teams and bad, teams that needed a little kneading to turn make that dough rise and achieve success, but this Eagles team is one that has no identity or purpose.

A lot of the conversation circles around Reid and Michael Vick. This isn't surprising, but while Vick has amassed and unseemly amount of turnovers this year, he's not the only person to blame. Most of the blame should in fact fall on Reid. Reid has turned his solid success into a Belichick-ian or Shanahanny type reign where all power and personnel decisions go through him. Out of virtually any team the Eagles have ever had in his tenure, this is Reid's vision. He made Vick one of the most dominant QB's in football (not just a flashy runner, but a true QB threat), he extended DeSean Jackson and signed Nnamdi Asomugha to large extensions. His play calling and clock management have always been in question, but his stubbornness to adapt and improve is what is ultimately leading to his downfall.

It isn't a stretch to say that the Andy Reid that coached his first game in 1999 with Doug Pederson is virtually no different from the coach that took the filed Sunday and led a listless team to an underserving 3-4 record (they could have easily been much worse). Sure he has some more gravitas, some wins and NFC titles under his belt, but the strategic and game management side have only grown more tiresome and frustrating. Once Reid was able to successfully take the reigns of this team a couple of years ago, team owner Jeffrey Lurie, who always has supported Reid, let him know that continuing to fail to adapt, to fail to make key subtle personnel decisions (improving draft picks, developing players, not just QB's) would put Reid in the cross-hairs should the Eagles fail to perform again.

Reid has responded by doing more of the same thing. Exposing Vick by having him throw all game long. Neglecting the run game and establishing or at least attempting to keep the opposing team's defense on their heels. This was an Eagles team, under the helm of Vick, two years ago that was one of the most explosive offenses in football. Now, they've been relegated to dinks and dunks. Wide receiver screens and quick slants to Jason Avant. There is a clear realization that either Reid has no confidence in Vick or himself.

This isn't to get Vick off the dunk tank seat. He's very much in line as his lack of decision making ability quickly enabled defenses to expose weaknesses and make life in the pocket for Vick hell. Vick hardly, if ever, audibles at the line to change protections or make decisions based upon what he sees from other teams. Sure, he'll kill a play or make a quick change from time to time, but when it comes to recognizing what the other team intends to do and fully controlling the situation like the Manning brothers or Tom Brady it's clear he is incapable. If another team wanted to constantly blitz their safeties, you don't think that Eli Manning would make them pay?

Vick's increased difficulties are largely on his shoulders. His accuracy has completely dropped off from two years ago, and along with Reid, he should be no longer a member of the Eagles come 72 hours after the final whistle at the Super Bowl where a $15 million roster bonus would kick in.

Reid took this team as far as he could, but it wasn't good enough. The Eagles are still one of the younger teams in football, so a new coach has a lot to work with. They can build around LeSean McCoy and Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, but with a new regime primed to take the stage and no reliable starting QB, it may be a long time coming before the Eagles will again be a threat in the NFC East. (My head coach pick: Jon Gruden)

A couple other declarations:

Andrew Luck and RGIII are as good as advertised - baseball has Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, football has these guys. Worth noting that while RGIII has garnered more headlines, Luck leads RGIII in many of Football Outsider's DVOA ranks.

The Buc$ aren't half bad - aside from the force that Doug Martin has become and a much improved defense under first year head coach Greg Schiano, the Bucs have been my favorite team to bet on all year. They are constantly underrated by Vegas, and have the ability to keep in close games whether it's a defensive battle or a high scoring affair.

Something is happening with Calvin Johnson - somehow people have figured out a way to stop him from destroying everything in his path. Getting at Matthew Stafford helps, but the fact that Johnson has 1 TD to date in spite of increased targets is an anomaly.

How important is a head coach? - The Saints must be saying a lot. While they've always been a suspect defensive team, without Sean Payton, they've become simply a vehicle for Drew Brees to put up stats.

Alfred Morris is starting and good - easily my biggest missed call thus far has been Morris. He's managed to not only start regularly under Mike Shanahan, but perform well enough to earn Terrell Davis comparisons. I even just traded Brady for him in my one fantasy league (RGIII is my starter).

Don't sleep on AJ Green - he's starting to earn more well deserved attention. Fellow draft mate Julio Jones is getting a lot of hype and we all know what Calvin Johnson has failed to live up to. Green is quickly vaulting into the upper echelon of wideouts. Also, Larry Fitzgerald who is long forgotten in Arizona will be opting out of his mega contract. He's too good to waste away there.

Time to declare some money makers in Week 9.

It was hard not to notice Jonathan Dwyer on Sunday for a lot of reasons. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Cecil Shorts, WR - JAX (11%) DET

It's time to open up my favorite file. The Alshon Jeffrey/Josh Gordon "Someone has to Catch Passes" file. With Blaine Gabbert dinged up and no Maurice Jones-Drew someone had to enjoy themselves against the Packers miserable pass defense Shorts was able to continue a solid season hauling in his 3rd TD pass of the season.

Danny Woodhead, RB - NE (38%) BYE

Especially in a PPR league, Woodhead appears to be the kind of dual threat back that can be helpful, you know, when he's not on a bye week. There's plenty of balls to go around in the Pats offense, it's always a question of which 2nd level offensive player for the Pats will be graced with a solid game.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB - PIT (46%) WAS

There are plenty of unhealthy options in Pittsburgh at running back. While Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman got their first couple of shots at the starting job, injuries have cleared a path for Dwyer. When Mendenhall is healthy you can expect him to get a shot at earning his job back, but with injuries mounting in Pittsburgh like they usually do, Dwyer has an opportunity to be a factor in the backfield.  

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Beanie Wells, RB - ARZ (11%) @GB

He's coming back from injury again. Feel free to waste money on him.

THE 1%

Ryan Broyles, WR - DET (7%) @JAX

Typically I like to try to get this done prior to 12 on Tuesdays because around then is when ESPN's Chris Harris drops his pick up list. Now, obviously, we're not in competition, but personally, I like to see who he picks and who I pick in a given week. A bit of a compare and contrast. Well due to the hurricane I got a bit delayed today, so I read Harris' article and his write up on Broyles is better than I could ever do.

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 2

You win this round, RGIII. (wjla.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at least 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Like most of you, I was eager and more than happy to hunker down on Sunday for the first full slate of NFL games for the 2012-2013 season,* but as one heralded rookie put on a show in New Orleans, I'm pretty sure I had a more unique experience watching this go down. Now, I have Robert Griffin III as my back-up to Tom Brady in my money fantasy league, so I can't say I was bummed I didn't start him, but rather happy to have him on board. Of course, this experience can be shared with hundreds of thousands of other RGIII owners. Where my experience becomes unique is that my initials are R.G. and I also just so happen to be the 3rd.

*Can we all just agree to "Madden" any sports years that aren't all encompassed in one calendar year? When Madden comes out, it's not Madden 12-13, it's Madden 13. This is the 2013 football season. Sorry to all the hyphen lovers out there.

So, not that he hasn't taken the moniker of RGIII more than rightfully over your humble narrator, I was just reflecting on two things.

1. How did I never make better use of the RGIII, RG3 nickname?
2. If I had, man I would have been able to make at least some money off of it.

The answer to the first question is much easier and more palatable. I had a better nickname growing up. Using my last name as the springboard, it initially became G-Lock, which streamlined to Glock (unbeknownst to me or any of my friends at the time a glock is also a pistol, so not trying to be all gangster or anyting). Then another incarnation, the Glockness Monster or just Glockness. To this day, I say much better than RGIII.

The answer to the second question gets to be a bit harder to swallow. For the longest time, at least in the early '00s when rap was exploding everywhere and I had realized that Glock is the name for a handgun, I was solicitous that a rapper would take my coveted nickname. Then from that point on, my nickname, which I liked, would be compared to/inspired by that rapper or it would become obsolete. Little did I know that around that same time, an 8th grader was going to blindside me for the rights to RGIII. 

Needless to say, in an era of 2Chainz, Maino, Tyga, Wiz Khalifa, and any other ridiculous rap names there are, Glock appears to be safe.

Where my RGIII connection comes in is that when Twitter first came out, I had to pick a handle. Glockness Monster was too long, Glock was not allowed due to the aforementioned affiliation to a firearm. So I tried RG3. Too short. Twitter requires 4 characters. Ok, RG_3. Eh, don't like the way it looks. What about...RGIII? Available, works, but eh, I don't know, let's go with TheRealGlockness (or something completely stupid and not funny). For a moment in time, I had Robert Griffin III's Twitter handle, and while I'm no economist I'm pretty sure the rights to that would have netted me a nice chunk of change from the RGIII camp. If only. Not to make matters any better, I've switched my name 2 or 3 times to the current one, which I'm fine with. 

As RGIII laid down after his 88-yd TD pass to Pierre Garcon, he had plenty of things whistling threw his helmet. Me? I only had one. "Shit."

Onto who you should be opening your wallets for.

Flac-daddy (http://cdn.stereogum.com)

Joe Flacco, QB - BAL (70% owned)

Perhaps no one took a leap in Week 1 quite like Joe Flacco (Audubon Green Wave, what!). The now unibrowless and fu-man-chuless QB opened up his brand new offense, and the no huddle seams to treat him just fine. With more control over play calls and having play makers like Dennis Pitta, a healthy Anquan Boldin, and burner Torrey Smith, Flacco can utilize Ray Rice as a runner, pass catcher out of the backfield, and most importantly excellent play action threat to open up deep balls that Flacco actually throws extremely well. Flacco has always been a better actual player than fantasy player, but after last night's performance he bumps up a tier to solid fantasy QB2/spot starter. By the end of the year, it could be higher than that.

Owen Daniels/Jared Cook/Kyle Rudolph/Dennis Pitta/Marcedes Lewis, TE (All 65% and under)

If you were pissed you missed on Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, or Aaron Hernandez, maybe you shouldn't be. This appears to be Year II of the Tight End. All those guys (minus Gates who *gasp* got a little dinged up) put up solid Week 1 numbers, but the group of widely available TE's look to be up to the challenge.

Daniels we know about. He's had great success in Houston, and he has been productive. With Schaub back, it appears things are back to normal for him, however, I would still put him in the old school class of TEs. The next couple guys are a new wave.

Rudolph was highlighted in my failed Grantland submission as my sleeper, and when I was researching that position, a lot of what I liked in Rudolph you could say about Dennis Pitta. 

Kyle may not have won me a Grantland gig, but I still like him.(media.scout.com)

The thing that stood out for Jared Cook and Marcedes Lewis was easily how they were utilized on Sunday. @MikeClayNFL tweeted that the Titans called a pass play on 48 of Cook's 60 snaps. Out of those 48 pass plays, the TE stayed back to pass block all of zero times. He was out there running routes and looking for catches. The athletic TE has been a 'sleeper' pick for so many years I'm sure he's burned some bridges, but with Kenny Britt still recovering from his knee surgeries and a young QB in Jake Locker, the Titans certainly look to be turning to Cook.

Lewis did have 10 TDs two years ago, but the mess that Jacksonville was last year and some dropsies by the big man caused an unbelievably horrid year. He too became the apple of Blaine Gabbert's hair eye in Week 1 and was able to get a lot of look as well was haul in a TD.

Alshon Jeffery, WR - CHI (35%)

Titus Young was a popular sleeper pick at WR this year. People saw Calvin Johnson, people saw match-up issues, people saw a lot of one-on-one coverage for the young receiver. Well, things didn't exactly go as planned for Titus in Week 1. When you're the dumb one out of a confrontation with Janoris Jenkins, that's a problem. One Lions head coach Jim Schwartz probably won't tolerate much more of.

Another team in the division though, may have been a quiet sleeper in utilizing the Johnson-Young dilemma, the Chicago Bears. Brandon Marshall looked to be on the same page as Jay Cutler, which is a good thing for each of them, and potentially a great thing for Jeffery. The rookie wideout caught a touch and had 80 yards. If Cutler, Marshall, and Forte/Bush get motoring, it might be wide open spaces for Jeffery.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Alfred Morris, RB - WAS (5%)

Well, that didn't take long. The Redskins RB situation has created the first line in the sand moment of fantasy football 2013. Either people are going to be right or wrong in saying claim him or not. For me, I'm staying away. A tiger can't change their stripes and Mike Shanahan hasn't had a steady back in quite some time. If Alfred Morris is Terrell Davis, then I was way, way wrong, but I'll opt and say he isn't. Morris will be decent, maybe an RB4 or decent flex play given the match-up, but with RGIII at the helm, Shanahan will want to keep a back in there that can run, pass block, and pass catch. As far as I can tell, Morris can only do one of those things. That equals a RB shuffle akin to what we've all been known to hate about Shanahan.

Also, let's just say RGIII becomes a better version of Cam Newton last year? It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the run game minimized in that circumstance, along with the times when the 'Skins are trailing in the ball game. If I have a top 5 waiver claim, sure I can see doing that. But unloading half or more of my FAAB? No thanks.

THE 1%

Bilal Powell, RB - NYJ (1%)

I'm pretty sure no one is overreacting to the Jets offensive explosion on Sunday. Things would be a lot quieter in Gang Green land if Mark Sanchez could consistently do what he did against either an underprepared or overrated Bills defense. Odds are, they are going to have to turn to the run game, and while Shonn Greene looked to have a good game, he did fumble twice (both were recovered). This isn't great for Greene, who has continued to underwhelm the fantasy community for years. We all know Tim Tebow is lurking in weird packages that probably won't work, or in cases like Sunday, aren't needed, but with Joe McKnight being Joe McKnight, there is an opportunity for Powell to take some carries with the first team offense.