Showing posts with label Robert Griffin III. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Robert Griffin III. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 3

RG III (left) and Aaron Rodgers had two very different Sundays, but for fantasy .. not quite. (msn.foxsports.com)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

From a football perspective, you'd much rather wake up Tuesday morning and be Aaron Rodgers as opposed to Robert Griffin III. Rodgers led the Packers to their first win of the season by crushing the Washington football club 38-20. Griffin, however, struggled to get anything going for the second straight game, only to see his defense struggle again and put Washington FC in a deep hole. One team kept their division title hopes alive, while the other couldn't be plummeting any faster.

In fantasy however, the difference isn't so vast. In that game Rodgers hurled 4 TD passes and set a franchise record for a single game of passing at 480 yards (beating out .... Matt Flynn's previous franchise record!). Griffin playing the catch up game tossed he second straight 300+ yard passing game and 3 TDs of his own. Overall, for what looked like an absolute beatdown on Sunday turned into only an 11 point difference between Rodgers (34.90 points) and Griffin (23.90 points) in standard Yahoo! fantasy leagues.

In fact, RGIII ended up with the 4th best QB fantasy performance in Week 2. "Beating" other QBs that actually won their games like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Peyton Manning. Yes, for this seemingly out of nowhere performance we can thank garbage time.

Piling up stats in garbage time is no secret amongst fantasy players. Just ask Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson owners last year. There's a certain art to owning a player or players on a bad team, that you know once that defecit grows to double digits, the running and gunning come out. There's really no definitive way to assume a player will garner a lot of garbage time points, but so far RGIII has mastered it.

From Grantland's Bill Barnwell:
The final scores from these past two weeks undersell just how little Washington has had to offer in its opening contests of 2013. Washington was down 24-0 at the end of the first half against the Packers on Sunday, and the Eagles took it to the woodshed with a 26-7 halftime lead last Monday; that's a 43-point halftime gap over the first two games of the year.*

*Also, that 7 points that Washington scored against the Eagles was a defensive touchdown. So Washington's offense has been in a 50-0 hole.

Out of that mess came two very solid RGIII fantasy performances. While no one will mistaken these past two weeks as RGIII playing well, it's worth noting that even though Washington FC might be heading for a rough year, it doesn't mean that the team will be dragging down RGIII or Alfred Morris - for that matter - with them. There's still a lot of fantasy value to be had when you treat your gameplan like Richard Sherman treats, well ... everyone. Aside from the growing injury concerns in the nation's capital, I still view RGIII as a worthwile fantasy play moving forward. It's clear that he is not able or not comfortable running like he used to, but it's also clear that the NFC East has a collection of the worst defenses in all of football. With a slate of games that are sure to be high scoring against poor defenses, RGIII - even without running - could easily finish a top 10 QB barring injury/benching by cashing in on the seemingly gigantic amount of garbage time that will be coming his way. As the season progresses, his health should improve making a top 5 ranking in reach, but Washington as a whole look to not be a competitive team this year.

It may not be pretty on Sunday's, but Tuesday morning is what we're all shooting for.

Eddie Royal has 5 touchdowns already. (wtnh.com)

Among the large amount of significant Week 3 injuries, let's see who is worth our time. Onwards!

Eddie Royal, WR - SD (23%) @ TEN

Sure it was easy to ignore Royal's Week 1 performance, and many people did. Week 2 however caught the attention of everyone. Three touchdowns albeit against the horrid Eagles' secondary established Royal as at least a fantasy bench option moving forward. We've seen the situation before where a breakout game ultimately leads to nothing, but Royal has always had an ability to be productive. He had 91 receptions for 980 yards and 5 TDs in 2008, but since then he hasn't really had steady opportunities. What he's getting in San Diego is just that. New head coach Mike McCoy might not have been counting on Royal when he took over the job, but injuries to Malcolm Floyd and Denario Alexander have given Royal a window of opportunity to succeed. Also, don't sleep on the San Diego offense, McCoy was the offensive coordinator for the Broncos the last two years where he built a highly effective offense behind two of the most drastically different quarterbacks you can find: Tim Tebow and Peyton Manning.


Ryan Broyles, WR - DET (25%), Nate Burleson, WR - DET (10%) +Washington Redskins 

Wide receivers against Washington! All of them! Broyles should make his season debut this week, and I'd expect him to get used to suiting up moving forward.



Isaiah Pead, RB - STL (14%) +Dallas Cowboys 

Daryl Richardson owners, just go get him.

Percy Harvin, WR - SEA (31%) Injured

Word is the medical staff in Seatlle is doing some interesting stuff. Harvin indicated that a Week 7 return isn't out of the question. Seems like a great time to stash him in case. Sure, this could be just a super competitive athlete's optimism, but who knows? If you're looking for an immediate impact guy, Doug Baldwin (8%) is always underrated.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

James Starks, RB - GB (10%) +Cincinnati Bengals 

I said it before in my running back preview, but when it comes to the Packers, I just do not trust them to run the ball affectively. Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion on a finable hit by Washington safety Brandon Merriweather. There'd probably be a lot more bad blood going around if Merriweather didn't get some of his own comeuppance by later suffering a concussion of his own trying to take down Starks in a similar manner. There's certainly not much to work with based on Lacy's touches so far this year. It's difficult to judge him on the 14 carries he had against Seattle, and one 10 yard carry on Sunday doesn't make things any clearer.

If you need a Packers RB, then Starks is your guy. Just keep in mind that his breakout performance took place in 2010's postseason. He's failed to impress since then, and his performance on Sunday was against a clearly overmatched defense who were already defeated once he touched the pigskin. Depending on how long Lacy is out, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers dial up Willis McGahee or Michael Turner. He's taken your FAAB money before. Don't let him do it again.


THE 1%

Andre Ellington, RB - ARZ (1%) @ NO

Rashard Medenhall has probably exceeded expectations thus far for fantasy owners, but Ellington has impressed Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians. It appears Ellington has already taken over as the third down back in Arizona, and the rookie 6th round pick is inching closer to Mendenhall on the depth chart. It would probably take an injury for Ellington to displace Mendenhall, but that's never out of the question.

BOX OFFICE BOOMER

I don't envision this being a recurring section, but for everyone wondering why the Patriots don't go get Brandon Lloyd, well here's a fun fact about what he's up to.

Brandon Lloyd - WR, FA (2%)

Free agent WR Brandon Lloyd stars in an upcoming zombie movie called "After Effect."
Advice: Maybe now we know why Lloyd has rejected inquiries from at least six NFL teams, including the desperate Patriots. He landed a role in this direct-to-DVD movie as Sargent Chuck Lloyd. The movie stars Daniel Baldwin. Lloyd is just 32 years old and posted a 70/966/5 line last year, but he appears done with the NFL.
Moremasslive.com
(Rotoworld.com)





Friday, July 26, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football 2013 Pre-Season Ranks - QB

Joe Flacco proved himself to be an elite QB in reality, but in fantasy, much remains the same. (msn.foxsports.com)

I like having a steady QB situation on my fantasy teams. I'm not one to try to piecemeal together my imaginary team's signal caller. No position has a higher floor on a week to week basis than QB, so why wouldn't I want to pencil in 20-25 points every week and just focus on everything else?

If you do a snake draft, well, the picks may not always break in your favor. You might have to build around two mid-range guys and hope one breaks out, or if it's last year just grab a rookie QB that's the age a rookie qb should be.

This year, you won't be so lucky as to nab a rookie QB that can lead your team to a fantasy title, but the good news is that these now second-year QBs have added immense depth to the fantasy QB pool. All 4 of 2012's breakout stars are in the Top 11 of my rankings, and all of them have the potential to do even more damage this year.

In my rankings, I suppose I tend to lean a bit more on QB's that are secure in their position. Not only job-wise, obviously, but also the protection and skill weapons they have around them. Since I tend to put a higher value on QB than most, I want to make sure the guy I take is as sure-fire as can be. That's a little easier to gauge near the bottom portion of the rankings, but once you get near the top, it's when some of this picking nits really shows itself. So let's run through the tiers together, shall we.

TIER FANTASY BACK-UPS

25. Ryan Tannehill, MIA

24. Matt Schaub, HOU

23. Alex Smith, KC

22. Carson Palmer, ARZ

You always like to have 2 QBs in your 1 QB league for insurance purposes? Don't want to go dig up Christian Ponder off waivers during a bye week? Here are your guys. People that given a match-up and a situation can certainly be a worthwhile sub to your elite QB.

The surprising pick in this tier might be Schaub, but I'm not nervous about dropping him. Schaub has decent numbers at the end of every year, but there isn't a QB more likely to give you 0 TDs than Schaub (did it 5 times last year). He did have a 4 TD and 5 TD game, so like I said, match-ups.

TIER WILL THEY-WON'T THEY

21. Sam Bradford, STL

20. Josh Freeman, TB

19. Philip Rivers, SD

18. Andy Dalton, CIN

17. Jay Cutler, CHI

All of these QBs are at a point in their career where we really need to see something out of them this year to dictate where their fantasy future lies. There have been flashes of greatness from these players, but there has also been an inability to keep that level of perfomance up for a full season.

It's sad to see Rivers here. He looked to be every bit the QB his fellow draft classmates Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger were, and for fantasy purposes he looked to be even better. But perhaps it's injuries, attitude and team that have dragged him down.

Bradford is the guy that is the least accomplished of this group. The benefactor of the no rookie draft slot era, Bradford hasn't come close to paying back the $50M in guaranteed money he signed for after he was drafted #1 overall from Oklahoma. I do feel like it's between him and Freeman in this tier for who has the most upside to offer. Bradford has an improved offensive line and some legit speed and athleticism lining up along side him. It'll be up to him to gel this unit together and do what great quarterbacks do ... elevate his team to a new level.

TIER FLEAS

16. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

15. Michael Vick, PHI

14. Joe Flacco, BAL

13. Tony Romo, DAL

12. Eli Manning, NYG

We know these players. We know what they can do, we know what they can't do. We know their strengths, but ultimately we know their weaknesses that befall them. Whether it's injuries, inconsistency, or just steady play none of these guys have high ceilings or low floors.

The first two on this list, Big Ben and Vick, I have some serious questions about. Roethlisberger's injuries are mounting and this Steelers team looks to be the weakest in a long-time. Roethlisberger has never been an elite fantasy player so those strikes against him threaten to drop him significantly.

Someone that was once a valuable fantasy commodity in Michael Vick may not even have the job out of training camp. New Eagles head coach Chip Kelly has preached an open competition for running out of the big inflatable helmet priviledges. Insiders and/or Vick haters already have to job going to Nick Foles, but we shall see. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Vick doesn't get the job. Regardless of what Kelly's NFL offense looks like, the number one skill needed will be making quick reads and decisions. Not read-option, not the ability to scramble, but knowing the defenses and how to audible appropriately. Two things that Vick is abhorrent at. However, in this tier, his ability to potentially thrive in the offense along with his running ability gives him some bonus points.

TIER JUMP STREET

11. Andrew Luck, IND

10. Colin Kaepernick, SF

9. Matthew Stafford, DET

8. Tom Brady, NE

All of these guys could easily overthrow the next tier. A couple may even be knocking on the doors of the top tier come the end of the 2013-2014 season. Right now though, there are some minor questions as a side dish to their major upside entree.

Andrew Luck is, skill wise, one of the best QBs in football. He had a fantastic rookie year, but let's be honest, he had an easy schedule and to his credit was able to put his team in a position to win a lot of games. But comfort wise you have to wonder how new offensive coordinator's Pep Hamilton will use the Stanford offense Luck commanded in the NFL (can we please call Hamilton the Director of Offense, please? If not, can we make this Luck's official nickname?) and if Luck's lack of offensive talent around him will start to show.

A lot has happened to Tom Brady in the off-season. The short of it is he lost 2 of his top 3 passing targets, and the third has had more surgeries in the past year than Brady has played in Super Bowls. When you get yourself purposefully removed from Madden, you know you've done gone done something bad. It is hard to tell if Brady will be able to overcome all of this. While effecient as ever running the Pats high-octane offense, you have to have doubts as to who is going to come through on offense. This can either break with Brady making stars out of Danny Amendola and Daniel Fells or them dragging him down.

TIER WORTHY OF THE HYPE

7. Robert Griffin III, WAS

6. Russell Wilson, SEA

5. Matt Ryan, ATL

4. Cam Newton, CAR

Sure RG3 and Wilson have some questions around them, but last year they had a lot of great answers. RG3 obviously has the injury to deal with. He appears to be getting back to full strength, and barring a setback he will be ready to go Week 1. Even if he's limited on his feet, RG3 is an extremely accurate passer on short, medium, and deep throws. The guy is a weapon.

The addition of Percy Harvin isn't the only reason to look forward to a greater year out of Wilson, but Harvin's hip injury and migraine history leads me to think he might not be as big an impact player as we all want him to be.

I was really looking forward to banking on the Matt Ryan last year of his contract bandwagon. Thanks for nothing, Atlanta.

Killa Cam is a guy that is going to make me or break me this year. In this ranking, I'm at my most optimistic about him, but I can't say there aren't concerns. Last year was a marginal improvement or step down for Cam depending on what you're looking at. His sophomore year was overshadowed by the new crop of rookie QBs and attitude issues continued to follow Cam as his Panthers finished 7-9 and were completely average.

The Panthers focused on defense in the draft, which shoudn't be followed with an eye roll. If the Panthers can get more turnovers, stop more drives from developing, then that means Newton gets back on the field sooner and more often. However, the front office did nothing in free agency to help Newton out. Fringe players like Ted Ginn might amount to one spectacular play, but that's about it. The short of it is, this team isn't much different from last year. So what I'm basically relying on is his inability to get hurt because he's gigantic, an uptick in his passing efficiency, his run game, and Carolina utilizing the read-option better this year with his bloated RB corps. If he can take large strides in his pass game, then #1 overall player is a possibility.

TIER DISCO

3. Peyton Manning, DEN

2. Drew Brees, NO

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB

There aren't many concers about these three. If you're particularly nervous about any of them, then you probaby do mock drafts in your reinforced bomb shelter.

Manning has somethings like age and injuries to underline, but that's why he's third on the list. He has the most elite group of wide receivers in the league who all perfectly fit what he wants to do. If Manning takes futher control of the offense this year, I don't see why they couldn't run more plays per game and really pile up the offensive numbers.

Brees throws and he throws a lot. His interceptions went up a tick in 2012, but when you throw as often has he does, they will tend to happen. So long as the TD passes don't drop 15-18 INTs are palatable.

Rodgers is again the best fantasy QB in the game. He passes, he runs effectively, he does everything you could want out of a high pick. He may never hit the heights of his ridiculous 2011 season, but his ability to perform at an elite level, consistently week in and week out with a group of skilled players around him at minimum injury risk makes him the best pick you can make at QB.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 16

Bad weather? Chicago defense? Neither of these should have stopped you from playing James Jones. (nbcsports.msnbc.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

It's the most wonderful time of the year. Well, unless you were facing Russell Wilson or opted to play the Ravens' defense over those hapless Arizona Cardinals.

There are no right answers in the last couple of weeks of the fantasy football season. It seems like there are more pitfalls and traps on the way to that championship than on a course in Mario Kart. And that perception is, in fact reality. Match-up plays and hot streaks are all well and good in Week 4, but when the season is on the line, and you're looking at a match-up between one of your proven studs and a riskier pick - that can be a recipe for disaster.

Waffling on starting certain players is the norm for fantasy sports; especially football. It's why every sports site on the planet has rankings, projected stats, start 'em/sit 'em advice, etc. People have a need to know who to start.

Where these playoff weeks come into picture is that after a long season, you are at max capacity for information on these teams and players. Virtually everyone on your roster has either carried you to victory in some weeks and subsequently no-showed in others. Teams have been good, bad, and everything in between. Combine that with the added pressure of the playoffs, well it's easy for your heard to swirl.

The luckiest of us didn't have too many tough choices. You start Tom Brady, you play Adrian Peterson, or you sit Robert Griffin III. Of course those aren't the choices that get us burned. Those choices are around the WR3 spot or the TE spot, or if we're playing matchmaker with Kickers and D/ST.

In these cases, I always say stick to your guns. Clear your mind, and as you meditate to approach nirvana - in that moment - you select your line-up. Trying to reduce a season's worth of Chris Johnson stats to see if he's a good play this week only to have him be outscored by Danny Woodhead would make you crazy enough, let alone be a huge waste of your time.

It may seem short sighted to go with the "live by the sword, die by the sword" strategy at this point of the year, but you can ask everyone that started Josh Freeman against a horrible New Orleans pass defense over, well, basically anyone - how they feel.

Perhaps there is no better example of over thinking leading to the collapse of a championship run than James Jones. A FAABulous favorite, Jones has stepped up for the Packers all year and he continued that pattern last week nabbing 3 touchdowns and leading all WR in scoring.

But that sounds great, right? Right, it does.

But thanks to some over analyzing and nerves, the current leading touchdown receiver in the NFL was only started in 32% of leagues. How can this be? A guy with 9 TDs going into the game, hardly started in any leagues?

Well, here's the anti-Jones argument. He was facing the Chicago Bears defense in Chicago. The weather was not great. Also, with Jordy Nelson out, Jones could count on some more attention being thrown his way. Furthermore, as a player, Jones had only put up one double digit performance (10 points) in his previous 4 games. Continually, with only 51 receptions on the year, you're basically banking on Jones hauling in a score to be productive. In conclusion, I'll start Sidney Rice over him.

Now, there certainly were reasons to be hesitant in this one-time match-up, but in a standard Yahoo! league with three wide receiver spots, Jones should have been an automatic based on his work all season.

Taking a flier on a Justin Blackmon, Lance Moore, or even T.Y. Hilton type player left you on the short end of the stick.

There's not much roster moving needed for Week 16. You have your squad, and if you're still playing then you should be in good shape. But there are some positions to be weary of (like RGIII's injury and the fact that Terrelle Pryor is now a starting quarterback in the NFL). So I'll make some mentions of deeper adds and match-up plays for kickers and D/ST you should be on the look out for to close out the 2012 season. Same rules apply, though - owned in less that 50% of Yahoo! FFL.

It took until Week 16, but time to shine the FAABulous spotlight on some defense. (newstimes.com)
QB's - Here are some QB picks in case your starter is dinged up or has been shaky.

Guys I'm talking about: RGIII (injury), Matthew Stafford (ATL), Andy Dalton (@PIT), Josh Freeman (STL)

Russell Wilson, SEA (35% owned) SF

We are still doing this? At this point I'd add Wilson so your opponent can't get him.

Sam Bradford, STL (22%) @TB

Bradford has been a top 10 QB over the past 4 weeks. Put up more points than Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning. It would be ideal to have him in a dome, but no one has given up more fantasy points to opposing QB's than the Bucs.

Jake Locker, TEN (17%) @GB

The move for Locker is for a cheap, high floor guy. The weather in Titletown forecasts as sunny, but frigid. Not great passing weather. But for Locker he doesn't turn the ball over, and all he needs is a passing TD to go with his rushing yardage and you have a solid 14 points.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Joe Webb, MIN (0%) @HOU

Here's a picture. Vikings down 30 points, Houston clinched home field, and with their 3rd stringers, here comes Joe Webb. Garbage time can be a beautiful thing.

TE's - There have been a lot of up and down TE's this year. If you have a fringe guy or someone that's been struggling lately, you have to go get someone that will put up points.

Guys I'm talking about: Brandon Myers, Kyle Rudolph, Antonio Gates (bad QB), Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek (no shows)

Dennis Pitta, BAL (5%) NYG

Speaking of ups and downs, Pitta looked like a Pro Bowler, then disappeared for the last 8-9 weeks. But he appears to be back on Joe Flacco's limited radar. Take a shot while he's still gravitationally pulling passes to his body.

Lance Kendricks, STL (1%) @TB

What applies to Bradford applies to Kendricks. Tampa has given up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends this season. With the Bucs tough run defense, another 50+ attempt day for Bradford isn't out of the question. Opportunities abound.

Dallas Clark, TB (25%) STL

Clark hasn't been very productive. Between Doug Martin being an attractive check down option and the big play offense of the Bucs, Clark has been a lost man. The pass attempts will need to be at a high number for Clark to get receptions, but a TD isn't out of the question.

Anthony Fasano, MIA (5%) BUF

Two straight weeks have meant two straight TD's for Fasano. Are him and Ryan Tannehill beginning to click, or is it just a coincidence? Against an average Buffalo secondary, it might be worth trying to find out.

IF YOU'RE DESPERATE AND NEED 30 POINTS

Benjamin Watson, CLE (4%) @DEN

I mentioned the Bucs were good for 6th most points allowed to TE's, well Denver is numero uno. Number 1.  The TE opposing that team is Mr. Watson. If anyone can come out of nowhere and nab you a high point total or leave you with a goose egg it's Watson.

FOR ALL YOU STREAMERS OUT THERE

Made your bread this season by picking and choosing kickers and D/ST. Slow clap for you, potential fantasy champ. You've done it the hard way. Here are a couple streamers I like heading to the final week.

Kickers - 

Olindo Mare, CHI (1%) @ARZ

Robbie Gould was placed on the IR, so Mare is back, and he booted 2 FG's at Green Bay. Like him in a controlled environment in the Midwest desert.

Alex Henery, PHI (17%) WAS

Henery has been sneaky good this year, connecting on 25 of 28 field goal opportunities. But, such is the plight of the place kicker, they can only perform when put in a position to perform. In their previous match-up in Washington, Henery had 8 fantasy points as the Eagles' only scores that game. I'd expect them to put a couple more points on the board, and get Henery some more opportunities.

Phil Dawson, CLE (25%) DEN

It's going to be unseasonably warm in Denver with no rain or snow and a light breeze. At high altitude with that breeze at Dawson's back, he should put up good points as his Browns have trouble putting the ball in the end zone.

Defense/Special Teams - 

Indianapolis (6%) @KC

Indy is pretty self-explanatory going against the Chiefs. For all the chaos that has happened to the Chiefs recently, they were already a defeated team, and I see no reason for them to show up against a Colts team heading to the playoffs.

Carolina (10%) OAK

I already mentioned the Pryor situation, and while the Panthers leaky run defense raises some eyebrows against the Raiders, overall they should be fine.

St. Louis (31%) @TB

Backed by two Janoris Jenkins TD's in Week 12, the Rams have actually been the 2nd highest producing fantasy defense in the last 4 weeks behind Seattle. They can pressure the QB and have shown the ability to put up double digit fantasy points. Aside from a hiccup last week, depending on what Josh Freeman shows up, the Rams' defense has a high upside in Week 16.


Tuesday, October 23, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 8


Pass happy and catch crazy, Vincent Jackson almost had 3 TD's on Sunday. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The NFL Regular Season is coming up on the half way point this week. A moment of silence as we reflect on a season that, as per usual, always feels like it just started. While it's about that time to make some season declarations (Note: idea for next week's column) we can still focus on the overall scope of the league. As mentioned a couple of weeks back, while running backs have been featured more this year than last, there are some guys that still like to throw the ball around. As such, match-ups are certainly there to be exploited, and with those poor match-ups comes the most volatile position in fantasy football, the wide receivers.

Value of wideouts are always minimized simply because any given week any stick-um-less player that runs routes can haul in 2 TD's and lah-dee-dah you're getting 18 points out of a guy projected for 4.50 - right, Randall Cobb?

In Week 7 there were 6 WR in the top 21 in scoring for the week. The first (#2 ranked scorer*) Vincent Jackson was a yard away from finishing #1 overall. Cobb was the third ranked scorer followed by Victor Cruz (who pulled off a 77 yard TD catch in the last minute of the game), the on-fire Jordy Nelson, and then 44-year-old Santana Moss (thanks for extending my career, RGIII), and Andre Roberts (former Lockration pick-up selection). So out of the top 6 scorers at wide receiver their average projected draft position was 88.3. 
*Per Yahoo! FFL the ranks are dictated not by overall points, but factors in that along with position and probably some other values and calculations that I have no idea about.  Jackson was technically the 4th highest scorer, but since he's a WR he was ranked #2. Make sense? Kind of? Well whatever, my point is going to remain the same.
While declaration time may have to wait a week, the group of QB's and RB's are certainly more solidified than they were earlier in the season. Jobs are less likely to be won or lost (and those jobs that are lost do you really want the new hire - John Skelton and Felix Jones, much?). Wide receivers offer the best opportunity for a big swing in production. It just so happens there are some talented receivers available in many leagues that could boom over the next half of the season. Let's focus on them first, then some RBs. Also, as we move along in the season, match-ups become more and more important, so I'll highlight who the player is playing in the upcoming week. 

As we throw our cash in the air, let's see who's hauling it in.


If Chris Givens is as good as he thinks he is, he can be a playmaker rest of the season. (Getty)

Titus Young, Sr., WR - DET (26%) SEA

Young had his best game of the season Monday night against Chicago, and yes, that is saying something. His 6 receptions tied his season high and his 81 yards set his season high. The only negative was he didn't score a TD, but apparently the Lions don't do that anymore. He had the second most targets behind Calvin Johnson, Young's longest reception was 23 yards, so he earned his 81, and Nate Burleson left the game with an injury. With zero run game to speak of and teams somehow figuring out how to negate MegaTron, it looks like after a rough start, Young could fulfill his sleeper status many experts had him pegged for. Although his talent was never in question, just what goes on in his cranium during the game. 

Chris Givens, WR - STL (6%) NE

Speaking of head cases, Givens does fall into this category. He has, what us Arsenal fans like to call Nicklas Bendtner disease. Basically it's unbelievable confidence in yourself and abilities, while things like sight and video and performance tend to work against your delusions. While some one's mouth can get them into trouble, Givens abilities have started to shine through in St. Louis as a deep threat.

Brandon LaFell, WR - CAR (20%) @CHI

While no one bought the Panthers early proclamation by now injured offensive lineman Ryan Kalil that these Panthers were Super Bowl threats, the wheels have really come off for Carolina. After the arbitrary mid-season firing of their GM, the Panthers are 1-5 and seem to be heading nowhere. For all Cam Newton did last year, he's been largely ineffective in this offense. Steve Smith hasn't continued his renaissance of last year, and the Carolina running backs...well they're nothing to tweet about.  One positive out of the narrow loss to Dallas last week was the delayed emergence of LaFell. He appeared to be the perfect counter to the speedy Smith, but with the Carolina offense in such a rut, who knows how or why things weren't clicking properly. His match-up this week is not good at all, but if you look past this week there are some goodies against Washington, Denver, and Tampa.

Andre Brown, RB - NYG (42%) @DAL

There was potential for a Brown breakout after Week 3, but a concussion and Ahmad Bradshaw have cooled that fire a bit. Brown came back to minimal work last week, but should build on that moving forward. Bradshaw is also battling a foot injury, but as we saw last year, that may not be enough to keep him out of a uniform. David Wilson may be more of the future, but for heavy workload, Brown has shown he can do it. 

Rashad Jennings, RB - JAX (27%) @GB

Here we go again. Maurice Jones-Drew lasted all of two plays last week due to some sort of foot injury. He's already been ruled out this week against Green Bay, and odds are it'll be a couple more weeks after that. Foot injuries aren't only tough to diagnose, they're tough to come back from. After all the contract posturing that dogged MJD in training camp, I'd be sure he'll take his time coming back from this. Now, Jennings is a serviceable replacement level back. But with this team, and this offense, I wouldn't want to own any Jacksonville players. If you're desperate for touches, then shoot for Jennings, but again, some players are back-ups for a reason. They just aren't that good.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

LaRod Stevens-Howling (18%) SF  

As mentioned before, we've been down this road. Felix Jones showed us how this usually plays out. In case you're talking yourself into LRS-H simply based on carries let's try to use some facts to dissuade you. 

He is averaging 3 yards per carry. The undersized back plays San Francisco next week, and after that Beanie Wells is supposed to return. The rest of the schedule after that is brutal. I'm not convinced he even still is the primary back with William Powell running well. Last week might have just been going with the hot hand.

He has an up-up-up hill battle to return any kind of fantasy value this year.

THE 1%

Vincent Brown, WR - SD (3%) INJURED

It's not out of the question that when Brown returns from injury around Week 9 that he'll be the best wide receiver the Chargers have. Sure there are issues with that team, but getting reps above Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem shouldn't be impossible to do.  For all that ails Philip Rivers this year, the one thing he continues to do is throw the football. Whether it ends up in the hands of a guy with lightning bolts on his helmet or the other team is completely up in the air, but that suits Brown's game very nicely. Good preemptive strike opportunity here.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 2

You win this round, RGIII. (wjla.com)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at least 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Like most of you, I was eager and more than happy to hunker down on Sunday for the first full slate of NFL games for the 2012-2013 season,* but as one heralded rookie put on a show in New Orleans, I'm pretty sure I had a more unique experience watching this go down. Now, I have Robert Griffin III as my back-up to Tom Brady in my money fantasy league, so I can't say I was bummed I didn't start him, but rather happy to have him on board. Of course, this experience can be shared with hundreds of thousands of other RGIII owners. Where my experience becomes unique is that my initials are R.G. and I also just so happen to be the 3rd.

*Can we all just agree to "Madden" any sports years that aren't all encompassed in one calendar year? When Madden comes out, it's not Madden 12-13, it's Madden 13. This is the 2013 football season. Sorry to all the hyphen lovers out there.

So, not that he hasn't taken the moniker of RGIII more than rightfully over your humble narrator, I was just reflecting on two things.

  1. How did I never make better use of the RGIII, RG3 nickname?
  2. If I had, man I would have been able to make at least some money off of it.
The answer to the first question is much easier and more palatable. I had a better nickname growing up. Using my last name as the springboard, it initially became G-Lock, which streamlined to Glock (unbeknownst to me or any of my friends at the time a glock is also a pistol, so not trying to be all gangster or anyting). Then another incarnation, the Glockness Monster or just Glockness. To this day, I say much better than RGIII.

The answer to the second question gets to be a bit harder to swallow. For the longest time, at least in the early '00s when rap was exploding everywhere and I had realized that Glock is the name for a handgun, I was solicitous that a rapper would take my coveted nickname. Then from that point on, my nickname, which I liked, would be compared to/inspired by that rapper or it would become obsolete. Little did I know that around that same time, an 8th grader was going to blindside me for the rights to RGIII. 

Needless to say, in an era of 2Chainz, Maino, Tyga, Wiz Khalifa, and any other ridiculous rap names there are, Glock appears to be safe.

Where my RGIII connection comes in is that when Twitter first came out, I had to pick a handle. Glockness Monster was too long, Glock was not allowed due to the aforementioned affiliation to a firearm. So I tried RG3. Too short. Twitter requires 4 characters. Ok, RG_3. Eh, don't like the way it looks. What about...RGIII? Available, works, but eh, I don't know, let's go with TheRealGlockness (or something completely stupid and not funny). For a moment in time, I had Robert Griffin III's Twitter handle, and while I'm no economist I'm pretty sure the rights to that would have netted me a nice chunk of change from the RGIII camp. If only. Not to make matters any better, I've switched my name 2 or 3 times to the current one, which I'm fine with. 

As RGIII laid down after his 88-yd TD pass to Pierre Garcon, he had plenty of things whistling threw his helmet. Me? I only had one. "Shit."

Onto who you should be opening your wallets for.

Joe Flacco, QB - BAL (70% owned)

Perhaps no one took a leap in Week 1 quite like Joe Flacco (Audubon Green Wave, what!). The now unibrowless and fu-man-chuless QB opened up his brand new offense, and the no huddle seams to treat him just fine. With more control over play calls and having play makers like Dennis Pitta, a healthy Anquan Boldin, and burner Torrey Smith, Flacco can utilize Ray Rice as a runner, pass catcher out of the backfield, and most importantly excellent play action threat to open up deep balls that Flacco actually throws extremely well. Flacco has always been a better actual player than fantasy player, but after last night's performance he bumps up a tier to solid fantasy QB2/spot starter. By the end of the year, it could be higher than that.

Owen Daniels/Jared Cook/Kyle Rudolph/Dennis Pitta/Marcedes Lewis, TE (All 65% and under)

If you were pissed you missed on Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, or Aaron Hernandez, maybe you shouldn't be. This appears to be Year II of the Tight End. All those guys (minus Gates who *gasp* got a little dinged up) put up solid Week 1 numbers, but the group of widely available TE's look to be up to the challenge.

Daniels we know about. He's had great success in Houston, and he has been productive. With Schaub back, it appears things are back to normal for him, however, I would still put him in the old school class of TEs. The next couple guys are a new wave.

Rudolph was highlighted in my failed Grantland submission as my sleeper, and when I was researching that position, a lot of what I liked in Rudolph you could say about Dennis Pitta. 

Kyle may not have won me a Grantland gig, but I still like him.(media.scout.com)
The thing that stood out for Jared Cook and Marcedes Lewis was easily how they were utilized on Sunday. @MikeClayNFL tweeted that the Titans called a pass play on 48 of Cook's 60 snaps. Out of those 48 pass plays, the TE stayed back to pass block all of zero times. He was out there running routes and looking for catches. The athletic TE has been a 'sleeper' pick for so many years I'm sure he's burned some bridges, but with Kenny Britt still recovering from his knee surgeries and a young QB in Jake Locker, the Titans certainly look to be turning to Cook.

Lewis did have 10 TDs two years ago, but the mess that Jacksonville was last year and some dropsies by the big man caused an unbelievably horrid year. He too became the apple of Blaine Gabbert's hair eye in Week 1 and was able to get a lot of look as well was haul in a TD.

Alshon Jeffery, WR - CHI (35%)

Titus Young was a popular sleeper pick at WR this year. People saw Calvin Johnson, people saw match-up issues, people saw a lot of one-on-one coverage for the young receiver. Well, things didn't exactly go as planned for Titus in Week 1. When you're the dumb one out of a confrontation with Janoris Jenkins, that's a problem. One Lions head coach Jim Schwartz probably won't tolerate much more of.

Another team in the division though, may have been a quiet sleeper in utilizing the Johnson-Young dilemma, the Chicago Bears. Brandon Marshall looked to be on the same page as Jay Cutler, which is a good thing for each of them, and potentially a great thing for Jeffery. The rookie wideout caught a touch and had 80 yards. If Cutler, Marshall, and Forte/Bush get motoring, it might be wide open spaces for Jeffery.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Alfred Morris, RB - WAS (5%)

Well, that didn't take long. The Redskins RB situation has created the first line in the sand moment of fantasy football 2013. Either people are going to be right or wrong in saying claim him or not. For me, I'm staying away. A tiger can't change their stripes and Mike Shanahan hasn't had a steady back in quite some time. If Alfred Morris is Terrell Davis, then I was way, way wrong, but I'll opt and say he isn't. Morris will be decent, maybe an RB4 or decent flex play given the match-up, but with RGIII at the helm, Shanahan will want to keep a back in there that can run, pass block, and pass catch. As far as I can tell, Morris can only do one of those things. That equals a RB shuffle akin to what we've all been known to hate about Shanahan.

Also, let's just say RGIII becomes a better version of Cam Newton last year? It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the run game minimized in that circumstance, along with the times when the 'Skins are trailing in the ball game. If I have a top 5 waiver claim, sure I can see doing that. But unloading half or more of my FAAB? No thanks.

THE 1%

Bilal Powell, RB - NYJ (1%)

I'm pretty sure no one is overreacting to the Jets offensive explosion on Sunday. Things would be a lot quieter in Gang Green land if Mark Sanchez could consistently do what he did against either an underprepared or overrated Bills defense. Odds are, they are going to have to turn to the run game, and while Shonn Greene looked to have a good game, he did fumble twice (both were recovered). This isn't great for Greene, who has continued to underwhelm the fantasy community for years. We all know Tim Tebow is lurking in weird packages that probably won't work, or in cases like Sunday, aren't needed, but with Joe McKnight being Joe McKnight, there is an opportunity for Powell to take some carries with the first team offense.