Showing posts with label Josh Gordon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh Gordon. Show all posts

Friday, January 10, 2014

FAABulous: 2013 Fantasy Football Season Review

Peyton Manning had you covered this year in fantasy football. (blog.fitmarkbags.com)
Imagine two years ago when Peyton Manning wasn't playing professional football. While the cynics among us might have taken some sick pleasure in no longer having to deal with the media falling all overthemselves in Manning praise and attention, let's be honest, football in both reality and fantasy is more enjoyable with Peyton around.

Remember, when Manning came back last year, we were amazed that he was able to stay healthy and return to his previous heights. So to expect a career defining, record breaking season this year is quite amazing. We know the big and bold numbers: 55 TD passes to 10 INT, 5,477 yards, the 7 TD game to go along with another 10 games with 3+ TD passes. That's a lot of points. In the not so bold numbers, Peyton easily bested the rest of football in DVOA, especially when you only look at the starters who played the entire season. It was truly a historic year.

When it comes to the value of any fantasy football player, Jamaal Charles certainly deserves mention. In fact, it's not too hard to say he was the best individual player in fantasy in 2013. But what I want to shine a light on with Manning is that while Charles, yes, arguably was a better value for what he was able to give fantasy owners in 2013, what Manning was able to do as a quarterback is something that Charles can't replicate: spreading the fantasy love.

With Manning dispersing hog hide all over the football field, his success was directly tied to a lot of other fantasy owners' success. Overall, the Denver Broncos had six players in the Top 100 of Yahoo! Ranks (including Manning), and they all made strong contributions.

Player Fantasy Points
Peyton Manning 419.98
Knowshon Moreno 236.60
Demariyus Thomas 227.00
Eric Decker 192.80
Julius Thomas 150.80
Wes Welker 135.80

You could even say Montee Ball and his #154 rank contributed nicely near the end of the year. Sure it wasn't always easy to keep a steady amount of fantasy points flowing through the veins of these players, but Manning orchestrated it all. 

Now time to put a bow on this fantasy football season with a rundown of what I did right, and what I did wrong.

Matt Forte was one of my better calls of the year. (rantsports.com)
This was the first year I did preseason rankings, so I wanted to take a moment to quickly glance through those. For the complete rundown, the links are below. I broke down each position into tiers, so I'll focus on a tier or player I hit and a tier or player I missed on.

2013 FAABulous Ranks: QB, WR, RB, TE

RANKED WHERE THEY OUGHTA BE

QB - TIER WILL THEY-WON'T THEY & TIER JUMP STREET
Both of these tiers really worked out the best. Tier Will They-Won't They was cleared up across the board with the exception of, maybe, Andy Dalton. Although, I have an opinion on matters with the Red Rocket.

Tier Jump Street did just that, jumped over the group ahead of it (except for Cam Newton). Tier Worthy of the Hype all had reasons for sub par seasons (again except for Cam). Russell Wilson actually probably performed better in a real football sense, but failed to take the next step fantasy wise. 
Honorable Mention: Cam Newton still delivering and my multi-week coverage of Nick Foles in Philly. 

RB - MATT FORTE
Here was my hope for Forte this season:
"Out of any RB outside of the Top 10, Forte has the chance to break into the top 5 this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened."
Forte finished as the 3rd overall RB in fantasy, and he was also one of the most consistent fantasy players of the year. Lots of value for Forte investors. 
Honorable Mention: Dropping Ray Rice down in my ranks, Tier Barry Sanders (LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles), questioning the job security of both Montee Ball and David Wilson.

WR - JOSH GORDON & TIER WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE?
A two game ban meant nothing for me when it came to Josh Gordon. I can't say I had him as fantasy's #1 overall receiver, but #34with a kind note? I'll take it. 

All of Tier What Are We Doing Here? underperformed with the exception of some quick flashes from Andre Johnson. 
Honorable Mention: My tri-cycle theory with WR. Win!

TE - TONY GONZALEZ
Most of my TE success came in my week to week ranks. There was a lot of turnover and decent players that emerged. Not many victories to take, and I certainly wouldn't count a win for trusting Tony Gonzalez, but that's where we are at. Assuming Gonzalez does retire, it's a fond farewell to the greatest TE ever and a player that played consistently at an high level.
Honorable Mention: Not trusting Jermichael Finley - although I wish him the best in his recovery.

JUST A BIT OUTSIDE

QB - TONY ROMO
Like most people, it's more fun to remember the bad times for Romo than the good. His 31 TDs and 10 INTs was one of the best ratios in football, and while he didn't always perform spectacularly, he should have been ranked higher.

RB - EDDIE LACY
I told Green Bay to prove me wrong. To become a running football team, and the did just that. How much Aaron Rodgers' injury played into that, I don't know, but Lacy is here to stay. He's a top 6 back with a healthy Rodgers under center.

WR - ALSHON JEFFERY



TE - JULIUS THOMAS
Biggest miss of the year. Julius Thomas wasn't on my radar at all. Looking back at Week 1, Thomas could have been my 1% and been an excellent call, but I just had no idea who he was or what he could do. The first time I heard about him was from Andy Beherens. Thomas was dinged up a bit, but proved to be a major weapon for Manning, and a likely reason Denver will let Eric Decker go this off season.

As a nice segue, let's move to the notable hits and misses for the actual FAABulous column. Much like last year, I feel like there were a lot more successes than failures (including the ability to insert Twitter comments and GIFs), but I think I may have stretched my player pool a bit thin with too many recommendations. Something I might have to keep in mind for next year. Also, Week 14, 15 & 16 were playoff match-up editions, so no add/drops for those weeks. Anyways, onward!

After some back and forth, it's hard to doubt Nick Foles moving foward. (rantsports.com)

TROPHY KIDS: I MEASURE MY SUCCESSES VICARIOUSLY THROUGH YOU

WEEK 1
KNOWSHON MORENO (41% OWNED) 
CHRISTINE MICHAEL (26%) 
I'm pretty sure this is the last year I'l be able to pick Moreno as an underrated pick. Hey, remember when Christine Michael was a thing this year?

WEEK 2
HARRY DOUGLAS (1%) 
JULIAN EDELMAN (25%) 
Solid week. I was skeptical of Roddy White's health all year, and later in the season when Julio Jones went down, Douglas became the top WR option in Atlanta. He got 1,000 yards, but only 2 TD. I was less bullish on Edelman, but since Danny Amendola completely no-showed this year and Rob Gronkowski was out for a while, Edelman got a chance to shine. After he signs his free agent contract this off season he should tweet a thanks to Tom Brady.

WEEK 3
ANDRE ELLINGTON (1%) 
Showed off his explosiveness and increased his touches as the season went on. Finished 80th overall.

WEEK 5
CHARLES CLAY (48%) 
He really impressed this year. Built a strong connection with Ryan Tannehill.

WEEK 6
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON (17%) 
ZAC STACY (17%) 
KEENAN ALLEN (6%) 
This is an all-star week. Stacy was a beast when healthy this year, and Keenan Allen is an offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Patterson came on later, but he's a target to keep an eye on next year.

WEEK 7
NICK FOLES (12%) 
JARRETT BOYKIN (3%)
Oh, that Nick Foles. He cured what ailed a lot of teams struggling at QB. Boykin had his moments in the sun, but his opportunities set near the last quarter of the season. With James Jones on the way out, Boykin laid some groundwork for next season.

WEEK 8 
DONALD BROWN (8%)
MARVIN JONES (2%)
JOSH MCCOWN (1%)
Donald Brown was just better than Trent Richardson. Marvin Jones scored 4 TD's if you added him this week. Josh McCown went on an absolute tear subbing for Jay Cutler. 

WEEK 10 
ANDRE BROWN (37%)
RILEY COOPER (9%)
Always liked me some Andre Brown. Cooper emerged from controversy and had a career year (#72 overall).

WEEK 11
SHANE VEREEN (49%)
RASHAD JENNINGS (49%)
BOBBY RAINEY (4%)
Three solid rushers to help you along the way. Rainey had a huge game this week, when most were opting for Brian Leonard.


Percy Harvin couldn't escape the grasp of the inactive list in 2013. (seahawks.com)

TROPHY KIDS: YOU BLEW IT!



WEEK 2
TERELLE PRYOR (12% OWNED) 
What's that, future me? Pryor would lose his job to Matt McGloin? Oh ... thanks.

WEEK 3
EDDIE ROYAL (23%) 
PERCY HARVIN (31%) 
No dice with these receivers. Harvin's best opportunity to help any fantasy owners comes this weekend for those that play playoff fantasy football. I wouldn't count on him.

WEEK 5
ROBERT WOODS (13%) 
Let's just say I had higher hopes for Woods and E.J. Manuel this year.

WEEK 7
AARON DOBSON (15%) 
Rolled the dice with Bill Belichick's offense and lost.

WEEK 8
GENO SMITH (13%)


WEEK 9
DANIEL THOMAS (16%)
DEXTER MCCLUSTER (5%)
PEYTON HILLIS (40%)
I refuse to believe I felt good writing about any of these guys in Week 9.

WEEK 10 
ANDREW HAWKINS (1%)
I still really do like Hawkins. Just not Andy Dalton.

WEEK 11
TAVON AUSTIN (44%)
DENNIS JOHNSON (21%)
Week late on Austin, but didn't miss much. Dennis Johnson is this year's Ahmad Bradshaw Award winner for RB you hold onto assuming the RB ahead of him on the depth chart surely can't play (Ben Tate with broken ribs).

WEEK 12 
CHRIS OGBONNAYA (1%)
It honestly wasn't worth trying to figure out how to spell his name for how little value he provided.

WEEK 13
ALL BALTIMORE RAVENS
Damn you, Joe Flacco.

That's the rundown in all it's beauty and bruises. It's been another fun year, and I even got a one-time sponsorship from Fan Duel. So I can officially say I earned money from this! Exciting times, and this will likely be back next year. As for what's next ... well, it's fantasy baseball season, folks. See you soon.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 14

Eric Decker, just when I thought you couldn't disappoint me any more you go and do something like this. (ctpost.com)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems. PLAYOFF EDITION: We're not focusing on lower % owned players, but those with choice match-ups for the playoffs. 
AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!

If this was a week you needed to win and get into the playoffs or if it was just the penultimate week in your league, there were no shortage of big time players doing their best to help you if they were on your roster. Most notably the wide receivers.

Those point totals, also were the top 3 in all of football for Week 13. Even weirder, the first QB doesn't show up until Peyton Manning at #6, who just threw for 403 yards and 4 TD. Adrian Peterson is #9 with the quietest 211 yard game you'll ever have. It was a weird, crazy week.

But let's get back to the receivers. Yes, it was historic, yes if you lost starting any of these three receivers you should be embarrassed, and yes, out of these three receivers one needed this kind of game more than the others. That one receiver is Eric Decker.

Decker had gone 4 games without a score, and in those 4 games amassed 170 yards - otherwise known as a Josh Gordon first half. The lure of keeping Decker in your line-up every week was strong because let's face it, he's a good receiver and Peyton Manning could decide to get him the ball any given Sunday. Well, this past Sunday was that day.

Coming off a 0.50 point game, benching Decker had to be on plenty of people's minds. I know one person in my money league did it, as well as my Facebook friend who solicited advice previously for Gio Bernard (his options were Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, or Eric Decker: FWIW I would have gone with Wright and Decker).

Well that turned out not to be the best decision. Decker had the game of his life. As the recipient of every Manning TD pass, Decker actually outscored himself for the whole season in this one game (3 TD prior to 4 in the game) and sent owners swooning either in joy or fainting that he's chilling on the bench.

Decker owners have been annoyed with him all year. And no, it's not just because the guy has a hot wife (please feel free to Google ... I'll wait) but it's because his inconsistency and ADP haven't paid off. With the new look passing game in Denver, I assumed Wes Welker would be the key contributor to a slight Decker decline as I noted in my WR Ranks.

Thomas seems to be the safest pick out of all the Denver wide receivers simply because he's the most dynamic out of the bunch. Welker seems geared up to get his catches, and Decker might be viewed widely to get the small piece of chicken, those two are a lot closer than most rankings state. Thomas though is the match-up nightmare with the ability to make plays in all quadrants of the football field.

As it turns out though everyone from Knowshon Moreno, Julius Thomas and Montee Ball have contributed to Decker's inconsistency.

Sadly, it's to be expected that many Decker owners didn't get to cash in. He was slumping and if you had another reasonable alternative there's no shame in benching Decker. To bench Josh Gordon just means you aren't paying attention, and Jeffery against Minnesota is a good match-up but not something you'd go out of the way to start him against (for the record I started him over Moreno at Flex in my money league and it was probably the highlight of my 2013 fantasy season). While it has been frustrating with limited rewards to keep Decker in your line-up, this was the payoff that many owners were hoping for.

Hope is exactly what this time of year is all about in fantasy. The big game, the playoff hero that will carry us to an upset or a deserved victory. Yes, more than any other fantasy sport, you only need to get into the playoffs to rattle off a couple of miraculous wins. I won a fantasy title in 2007 basically due to Aaron Stecker. These things happen and match-ups and hope are the most important things to look at. So with the playoffs here and many, many players having already been mentioned throughout the season, I'm going to list some players I like for specifically Week 14. Call this Love/Hate or Flames/Lames or whatever, but I figure this would be the best way to provide more pertinent info this late in the year.

Good or bad, Matthew Stafford can pile up fantasy points. (si.com)
QB - Matthew Stafford, DET @ +Philadelphia Eagles, Nick Foles, PHI v. +Detroit Lions 

These QBs will be going head to head in a big game for both teams. In some ways, these teams are similar in their high powered offense and shoddy secondary. It's hard to foresee anything but a high scoring game.

The beauty about Stafford is that even when he's bad, he puts up fantasy points. Hell, the guy had 4 INT's two weeks ago and still rattled off 20.48 fantasy points - which is amazing considering the guy doesn't run a la Cam Newton.

Foles isn't quite fantasy proof, but he can have a decent game but still put up big points based on the fact that he doesn't turn the ball over. In all of his starts this year, he's only thrown for more than 300 yards once, but Chip Kelly trusts him in the end zone and with a 19:0 TD to INT ratio, how could you not?

If you're desperate: Josh McCown, CHI v. +Dallas Cowboys , Joe Flacco, BAL v. +Minnesota Vikings 

We know what Flacco does this time of year, and a Minnesota secondary that got battered by Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery last week will be happy not to have them around, but they will be chasing down Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones all day.

RB - Eddie Lacy, GB v +Atlanta Falcons, Shane Vereen NE v CLE

Lacy was a no show on Thanksgiving, so call him well rested. The Packers won't be trailing by nearly as much against the punchless Falcons at Lambeau. Stevan Ridley was inactive for the Patriots this past week, and it doesn't look like they really want him back in the mix. Vereen is the constant, but Brandon Bolden did great as well. The Browns don't have a bad rush defense, but Vereen is able to catch the ball out of the backfield and brings a lot of options for Brady and company.

If you're desperate: C.J. Spiller, BUF @ +Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Donald Brown, IND @ +Cincinnati Bengals 

If Eric Decker can give us something back this holiday season, then why not Spiller? You're looking for home run plays from C.J. and that's really all you can hope for. Also, in case you haven't watched the Colts for the past month, they've been terrible. But at least they're trying to put their best players on the field by benching Trent Richardson in favor of Donald Brown.

WR - Alshon Jeffery, CHI v +Dallas Cowboys, Vincent Jackson, TB v +Buffalo Bills, Riley Cooper, PHI v +Detroit Lions 

It's pretty clear which wide receivers have tasty match-ups based on my QB picks. You're obviously starting Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant so here are some widely owned but lesser mentioned receivers. Jeffery and Jackson both deserve a lot of attention for this Sunday, and I like Cooper more than DeSean Jackson as well.

Also, not that I would bench Josh Gordon, but he has a sneaky tough match-up against the Pats. The Pats have their issues, but the Pats do a great job locking down the opposing teams' #1 receiver. All year only three have found the end zone (Stevie Johnson - if he counts, Antonio Brown, and Demariyus Thomas). That's it. Aquib Talib's health plays a factor, but with Bill Belichick it's always about the strategy.

If you're desperate: Mike Wallace, MIA @ +Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacoby Jones, BAL v +Minnesota Vikings 

 Mike Wallace going off against his former team in the Steel City would be such a Mike Wallace thing.

TE - Rob Gronkowski, NE v @ CLE, Jordan Cameron, CLE v +New England Patriots 

I mean, it's impossible not to love Gronk. Also, if BB is able to keep Gordon in check, then QB Browns has to get the ball to Cameron.

If you're desperate: Ladarius Green, SD v +New York Giants, Tim Wright, TB v +Buffalo Bills 

Every week there's a new hot shot TE out there. Green's value is tied to if Antonio Gates can go, and it looks like he will. Green will still get plenty of action as the Chargers seem content with a two TE set. When it comes down to end zone looks though, Gates is still the top target.

Come on, Tim Wright! We can do this together!

K - Blair Walsh, MIN v +Baltimore Ravens, Nick Novak, SD v +New York Giants 

DEF - Cincinnati v +Indianapolis Colts, Arizona v +St. Louis Rams 

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 7

Shelling out some cash for Felix Jones is pretty much a requirement. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Any article about adding football players for your fantasy team this week will undoubtedly mention Felix Jones. The Cowboys back-up running back will re-assume a starting role for at least this week as incumbent/budding star DeMarco Murray has succumb to another injury in his young career.

It's another opportunity for Jones to show some consistency among the early flashes that had him pegged as the future star running back in Dallas. Jones was the 22nd pick in a pretty loaded draft, especially when you take a look at the running backs. Jones was the sentimental pick for owner Jerry Jones, who like Felix, is an Arkansas Razorback alumni (I'm told any and all similarities end there). After Jerry was unable to move up to draft Darren McFadden fourth overall, Felix was selected as the third RB in the draft after McFadden and Jonathan Stewart.

The running backs taken after Jones (in order): Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, and Jamaal Charles.

Outside of Rice - who clearly anyone 54 picks earlier probably should have considered - every one of those running backs have had their ups and downs, but outside of Smith, are clearly and definitively better than Jones.

The point of all of this is, yes, Jones hasn't been able to replicate the early explosiveness that highlighted the first 6 games of his career, but he is talented. When a player of DMM's magnitude goes down, there is a common perception to quickly add his back-up. Well, back-ups are back-ups for a reason. They aren't very good. This isn't always the case. Jones is a decent example. He has the talent and ability and plays for a team that should pack a punch on offense. What always bewilders me is when players that are clearly no good become FAAB darlings.

We all go for fliers, and we love to hit that homerun pick, but it rarely happens. More often than not, you get Vick Ballard or the oft-referenced Brandon Jackson from Green Bay several years back. Jackson is still serving 15 years of a 30 year fantasy prison sentence for all the FAAB dollars he stole. It's not his fault he failed fantasy wise. It's ours! Every owner that spent a large amount of money on a player that his own team dictated as a 2nd fiddle.

While running backs always seem to spring out of nowhere, it's important that when these situations come about, we still keep our heads. We don't get caught up on if this second year back-up is the next Arian Foster. Odds are he isn't. And in Jones' case, he'll be right back to the bench when DMM is healthy. Jones is an add for his potential, but know you're getting the same Jones that has been around for several years now.

Time to shop with our heads, not our hearts.

Felix Jones, RB - DAL (23% owned)

People may be chomping at the bit for Jones, but he's only the second most famous Felix this week.



Daryl Richardson, RB - STL (14%)

A funny thing happened last week when Stephen Jackson was declared healthy for the first time all year; he still split carries with Richardson. Richardson has done a good job sharing the load with Jackson, and it is a positive that he still got touches even with Jackson ready to roll. There's rumors that Jackson is on his way out in St. Louis, which makes sense, but as long as he's still on the roster, he's the best RB they have. Richardson will stick around, and clearly Jackson hasn't been the picture of health in his latter years. Richardson is worth a bench spot to see how this rides out.

Sidney Rice, WR - SEA (63%)

I wanted to put Rice as my Penny Saved this week, but I just...couldn't...do it. Rice has shown his talent before, and he's been gaining steam over the past three weeks. While the Seahawks are built around defense, special teams, and running in that order, Russell Wilson has shown himself able to at least get the ball deep on occasion.

Kendall Wright, WR - TEN (38%)

There was a lot of buzz around the young wideout and while he hasn't been a disappointment, necessarily, he hasn't had a big game yet. Part of that might relate to the teams he's faced thus far: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh. Easier times are ahead, starting this week with Buffalo. Wright has 33 receptions on the year, so he's been involved. Some easier match-ups will lead to bigger numbers even with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington around.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Montario Hardesty, RB - CLE (3%) 

Hardesty is the flip side to Felix Jones. People will see Trent Richardson is out, and hustle to pick up the back-up in Cleveland. Hardesty had a decent game last week, but he's never proved himself to be an every down back. If you're looking purely for a guy that will get attempts, then go for him. Other than that, I don't see much fantasy production coming his way. Especially with Brandon Weeden and Josh Gordon beginning an air show with each other.

THE 1%

Tom Crabtree, TE - GB (0%)

Don't look now, but the forever disappointing dynasty of Jermichael Finley in Green Bay may be slowly ending its reign. Tom Crabtree may not ultimately be the man to do it, but with yet another Finley year of inconsistency and dropsies, it's time to seriously start looking at other, more reliable options for Aaron Rodgers. Crabtree is what he is at this point, so maybe he can help with a fluky TD here or there, but let this be a warning sign for Finley owners. Time to make your escape.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 6

Stay sharp grasshopper. Stevan Ridley has become the apple of Bill Belichick's eye. (ESPN.com)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Guess who's back? The running backs.

We were supposed to be entering the decade of the quarterback. Guys throwing the ball 50 times a game and racking up more 5,000 yard passing seasons in a year than had previously ever existed. Oh, if only Dan Marino were still around. Hell, maybe this would be promising if Don Majkowski were still around.

But, poof, just like that we've returned to the seemingly bygone era of running back heavy football, and needing those players to carry our fantasy squads.

This past week, 16 rushers had more than 15 attempts carrying the rock, and two of them - Jamaal Charles and Ahmad Bradshaw - reached the 30 carry mark. They also ran for 200 and 140 yards respectively.

What could have been for the Majik Man.
The 49ers were "Down" for 311 rushing yards against a shockingly poor Bills defense. On the 666th Monday Night Football game, the Texans opted to run the ball heavily to set up their play action to wear down the Jets. And don't look past a team like Pittsburgh, who with a healthy Rashard Mendenhall back could easily become the running force with Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer they usually are.

Ten teams thus far are averaging over 30 rush Att/G. Of those ten teams that average over 30 rushes per game, only Kansas City has outright fallen on their face. Washington and Miami have losing records, but have exceeded expectations to this point, and the rest of the teams have winning records, including the top two teams in rush attempts - New England and Houston - who are both candidates for best team in football.

What's been the cause of this? Well there are a couple of factors that jump out after 5 weeks.

1. Two Back System

What started as the perceived as the death nail for 30 carry per game rushers, the two back system has become all but mandatory in today's NFL. For every running back no matter how elite, there needs to be a more than qualified back-up to keep the top RB on the depth chart rested, healthy, and keep the offense moving for the team. Even Arian Foster, who just signed a monster deal to stay in Houston, has Ben Tate backing him up. If Tate was traded tomorrow and given the lion's share of the carries, he'd be a top 10 back, easily.

2. New Blood

There have been a lot of impact running backs this year, that were injured, ineffective, or not even in the league in 2011. Guys like Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley, Doug Martin, and Mikel Leshoure have all turned teams with limited run presence into run threats. Aside from Leshoure who just returned form injury, all have helped fantasy teams as well.

3. Offensive Line Value

While manning the o-line will hardly ever be glamorous, it's without a doubt that teams are focusing more and more on developing and paying these players. Pass and run protection are key, and as Michael Lewis pointed out in The Blind Side (it's not just about Michael Oher) that the players on the offensive line are as important as ever. While his initial take is about the development of the left tackle, you can see how every position has increased in significance.

If your team loses a center, all you hear about is the fret and concern about pass protection calls, snapping the ball cleanly to the quarterback, knowing the audibles and everything else that goes into running a smooth offense. Well, with this increased value in the o-line, wouldn't it make sense that players develop and embrace this role more? Become better players at run and pass blocking?

We've yet to have a dominant batch of offensive linemen in a draft class, but there have been linemen emerging on a year to year basis. Last year I had never heard of Josh Sitton, but commentators were talking about him like he's the best player in football.


4. Old Dogs Learning New Tricks

The main reason this is happening is due to two of the most stubborn coaches in the NFL. Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan have both learned to love the run game and one running back. How this happened I have no idea. In all of Belichick's hubris did he choose to zig with the run game when everyone thought he'd zag and throw the ball 50 times a game? Perhaps his offensive line's trouble pass blocking for Tom Brady made running the ball more of a necessity to keep teams at bay. Maybe Aaron Hernandez's injury caused a dramatic shift in strategy, when it appeared BB was looking to unleash Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski on unlucky defenses. For whatever reason, he found Ridley/Brandon Bolden/Shane Vereen/Danny Woodhead and he's trudging along.

The bigger shocker is Shanahan. He's never stuck with a RB like this since Clinton Portis. Alfred Morris has been a beast thus far. With Robert Griffin III getting dinged up, you would imagine Shanahan would rely on Morris even more this week if RGIII can't go. Has Shanahan finally bought in to a running back? Is this his last ploy to suck all fantasy owners in only to have him pull the rug out from under us one more time? Get out of my head Mike Shanahan, get out!

And yes, I know I picked Morris as a stay away in Week 2. If you added him, then hey, you definitely got value. He's even getting the Terrell Davis comparisons I joked about! As far as a season long player, I need two more weeks. If he does that, I'll throw in the towel on Alfred.

Can Alex Green get the Packers' offense back on track? (Andy Lyons/Getty)

Those waiver picks are getting slimmer and slimmer. Time to look at some players with $$ signs in our eyes.

Brandon Bolden, RB - NE (47% owned)

It'd kind of kill the momentum of the article if I didn't suggest a running back add this week. Bolden is clearly behind Ridley in carries, but he has the ability and the opportunity to emerge any given week. He's more of a straight line back than Ridley, so he's not going to break out on a lot of long runs, but with Ridley's potential fumbling issues, Bolden could sneak his was in as a goal line back. Sort of a Kevin Faulk/BenJarvus Green-Ellis hybrid player.

Davone Bess, WR - MIA (32%)

For all the Brian Hartline love that was going around last week, I feel that Bess is the better play in Miami. If you had the will power to pass on Hartline, you should invest in Bess. With Ryan Tannehill getting more and more comfortable, he'll be throwing a lot more, and I would look for the Dolphins to increase their play action pass plays with Reggie Bush running so well. He'd be a WR3 start for me this week in St. Louis.

Alex Green, RB - GB (10%)

Let's not get all Brandon Jackson 2.0 over here. With Cedric Benson injuring his foot, he could be out 6 weeks in the cheese state. Some things to keep in mind is that the Packers are having trouble running the ball, and on top of that they aren't much of a run team. However, with their recent struggles and a clear need for a change in mentality among the offensive players, the 2nd year man Green could take this opportunity to impress. He was a yards per carry beast, leading NCAA Division 1-A with 8.2 YPC in 2010, and in his first limited action last week, he pulled off runs at a 6.1 average (granted with a 41 yard run thrown in). He looks to be tough to bring down, and the Pack just may look to feature him a bit more.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Santana Moss, WR - WAS (33%)

Is he really owned in a third of leagues? He's the 3rd WR on the Redskins when everyone is healthy, and there's nothing to look forward to here as far as upside. With the lack of chemistry he's created with RGIII along with doubts Kirk Cousins will be throwing many more 77 yard TD's, this is a stay away. Many better wide receivers to click on for your roster needs.

THE 1%

Josh Gordon, WR - CLE (2%)

I'm filing this one under the "Someone has to Catch Passes" corollary. It's Cleveland. Someone has to catch passes! Brandon Weeden has been sneaky not terrible since his Week 1 fiasco, complete with getting sacked by the American flag. I wouldn't look to much into a 2 catch day against the weak Giants secondary as a coming out party, but he can serve as a big play threat for the Browns.