Thursday, August 16, 2012

Fantasy Funkhouser: Deadline Passing Doesn't Mean You're Dead

Carlos Gomez apparently needs to hire a fantasy baseball PR firm. (Getty images)

Most fantasy trade deadlines have passed, so the only resource you have is what's out on the waiver wire. Before trades went the way of Brett Gardner's fantasy value, managers should have fortified their team. Top teams should have looked for proven players to make that run through the playoffs, where fringe playoff teams will be looking for more lightning in a bottle (Manny Machado, if you please). Either way, both are in the same boat...the lone bastion of fantasy value available outside of your squad is on the waiver wire.

This doesn't have to be a death sentence, nor a reason to stand pat. This time, above all else, is a time to ride streaks, ditch the "names", and be on the constant look out for players that can have the greatest impact on your team for the rest of the year. Flags fly forever, this is not the time to be stubborn and wait for Mike Napoli to make it back from the DL and turn things around. Where you drafted a player, his perceived value are all irrelevant. All that matters are hot streakers, category stackers, and toe tappers.

I made note of some value plays earlier in the year, so let's see if we can find some treasures. Here are some players to target that are available in half of Yahoo! leagues.

HOT STREAKERS

These are guys that are and have been on a tear for at least a couple of weeks. They contribute across the board, and while their star power may be limited, it should be around long enough to help your squad. This isn't uncommon throughout the year to find a guy on a streak, but finding a player that finishes the season strong is a major win.

Jon Jay, STL - OF (21%)

Did you know Jon Jay played in 159 games for the Cardinals last year? Maybe if you're Jon Jay you did, but for those of you new to baseball, that's almost a full season worth of games. Aside from hitting .297 last year, there wasn't much to write home about for Jay. In the past week, however, he's been placed atop the Red Birds' line-up and responded accordingly. He is 15 for his last 28 (.538), and he's been walking at a higher rate than he ever has.

That ability to get on base has paired nicely with a dramatic turnaround in Jay's stolen base percentage. Prior to this year, Jay was 8-19 in stolen base opportunities. This year: 13-15.

Ryan Ludwick, CIN - OF (45%)

To balance the force in the year of Josh Willingham, the NL has their own version of the Hammer, Ryan Ludwick. Both former power hitting corner outfield prospects have had some success in the bigs, but inconsistent play and injuries have gotten them off track to this point. Now, at 33 and 34 respectively, Willingham and Ludwick have come into their own. While Willingham is long gone in your league, Ludwick has only hit .344 with 8 homers in the last 30 days. Those 8 homers in that span puts him on par with Buster Posey, Carlos Beltran, and, of course, Willingham.

Now, Joey Votto has been out for much of this time, but when he does saunter his way back, Dusty Baker has no choice but to keep Ludwick in the line-up. Now, we all know Dusty can make some interesting decisions (Mark Prior was asked for an interview, but did not return Lockration.'s calls), but to bench or spot start a guy with 21 homers would be a stretch. Also, keep in mind that while Votto will gobble up RBI opportunities like Tim Tebow as Jesus gobbles up web hits, but Votto is an on base machine. Ludwick will still get his chances.


Carlos Gomez, MIL - OF (30%)

The ying to Willingham's yang (sb.mlb.com)
Initially touted by the Piano-man himself, Gomez has come on as of late for the Suds (sorry, Minny). Owned in ONLY 30% OF LEAGUES, this is perhaps the biggest head-scratcher we'll probably find on this list. There is no reports of Carlos Gomez doing something directly reprehensible to 70% of the fake hardball community, but it must be something. Even historically, Gomez may be a bit of a post-hyper, but he's not Alex Rios for god sake! Don't think that name change fooled us victims, Alexi Rios.

Gomez certainly strikes out a lot and doesn't walk. Typical WARNING signs, but in spite of that and Brewers' manager Ron Roenicke curiously dropping Gomez to 7th in the line-up the past couple of games instead of batting him ahead of formerly magnificently quaffed Ryan Braun (maybe that high testosterone test just comes from having a great head of hair?), Gomez over the last month has only [deep breath]: scored more runs (22) than Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Andrew McCutchen; out homered (6) Prince Fielder, Edwin Encarnacion, and Curtis Granderson; out RBI'd (14) Braun, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Adam Dunn, and Robinson Cano; stolen more bases than anyone not named Rajai Davis (who we will get to). [Big exhale]. But, yeah, that's all. Could his run be coming to an end? Possibly, but the owners who have had him aren't regretting their decision like you may be.

Erick Aybar - LAA, SS (37%)

Started off horribly, good team, scoring runs, premium position. Could also go for Josh Rutledge or Machado. I'm still winded and annoyed that more people don't own Gomez...

CATEGORY STACKERS

If you're coming up short in one category, these guys will help push you along. Whereas the hot streakers are more overall contributors, the value for these players comes with the potential to win you a category by themselves, or provide a major boost.

Salvador Perez, KC - C (35%)

At the catcher position, Perez can flat hit. Since coming back from a knee injury that took away most of his 2012, the young catcher has already clocked 8 home runs. That's already more than pre-season faves Joe Mauer and Alex Avila. Granted the amount of people that drafted Mauer for power should be gently told it's not 2009 anymore. His hot finish to the season can provide an upgrade right now for those teams looking for power, but Perez should also be noted for 2013 as a sleeper.

Rajai Davis, TOR - OF (22%)

If the question is, "Where do I get steals from?" Rajai Davis is the answer. He clearly has the green light to do as he pleases on the base paths for the best stealing situation this side of Miami. Now, Davis is notoriously streaky. Getting hot enough at times to melt the hockey rinks in Toronto and can get cold enough, no not to zamboni those rinks to a smooth hockey playing surface, but to play himself out of a job. At the very least, if he can keep it going for a couple more weeks, he's not at risk of losing his job with the likes of Anthony Gose playing everyday.


Eric Young, Jr., COL - 2B, OF (17%)

You waited. Oh, you were complacent. You had Jason Kipnis on his way to a 30/30 year and surefire keeper status, and hey, you drafted him late, but if he got injured or whatever, ultra utility man Michael Young; owner of numerous 200 hit .300 AVG seasons to back him as well as anyone else at 1B or 3B. Yes, life was good back on June 1st.

Kipnis had you sitting pretty in June. (cleveland.sbnation.com)
Since then, not so much. Kipnis hit the wall, and I mean THE WALL for his second straight Summer derailing his momentum into future star this year and raising questions as to what the hell happens to him once the mercury rises in the thermometer. Too many Bud Light limes? He hasn't hit a homerun since June 17th, and his average has dropped 30 points. It's been dark days in Kipnisville.

MY has been more of a year long disaster. Some people, including your humble narrator, bought in to MY's early struggles as a buy low candidate. I didn't buy low enough. Young has batted .257 over the past month with zero homers and 10 RBI. That really takes away from his average for the year of .269 and 45 RBI. Young has always been consistent, the only difference is this year he is consistently bad. The Rangers have done everything outside of cut the brakes on the car he drives to the ballpark everyday to get him out of the line-up. Top prospect Mike Olt has been called up to little fanfare, and there are even rumors tippity-top prospect Jurickson Profar may make an appearance as early as Monday to challenge Young for playing time.

So after the rubble clears, there's EY. Eric Young has too been anointed the everyday lead-off man in Colorado. His speed, and recent power streak, along with 2B eligibility make him an ideal play. Of course, this recent hot streak has coincided with a Colorado homestand at Coors, but high altitude doesn't cure speed. EY can run with the best, and can help stack that category.

TOE TAPPERS

The absolute best strategy down the stretch is playing match-ups and streaming. Some teams, just by the nature of their schedule, will have better match-ups, pitchers can wear down or spring forward this time of year. This might as well be the Doug Fister Memorial because last year and this year he has basically turned into a Cy Young candidate the last 2 months of the season. It's just those other couple months of the season he needs to work on.

Lucas Harrell, SP - HOU (12%)

Buried on the worst team in baseball is a 10 game winning pitcher. Lucas Harrell has been an ace for Houston. Now, that's a little different than being an ace in Houston, where that was Wandy Rodriguez until he was shipped to the Steel City. But Harrell has been on a streak as of late. Since the All-Star break, he carries a 2.06 ERA and 38 K's in 43 2/3 IP. Now, assuming management is still paying attention in Houston, Harrell's late season explosion may be cut short due to an innings cap. He's over 140 as of now and threw a grand total of 68 innings the past two.

Mike Minor/Kris Medlen, SP - ATL (42%/34%)

The Braves have a deep staff with vets and young guys with live arms. Minor and Medlen fit into the latter category. The staff is so deep that with Tommy Hanson's imminent return from the DL and new acquisition Paul Maholm pitching very un-Paul Maholm like, the Bravos are moving to a 6-man rotation battle royale over the next 2 weeks where the best and healthiest will emerge. I'd say Minor has a bit of a lead on Medlen, since Medlen was on bullpen duty before he got thrown in, but Medlen has been pitching better than Minor over the past month. Also, don't sleep on another top prospect, Julio Teheran. He put together some strong outings in AAA, and could see a September call-up. Nothing is guaranteed, but such is life in a post deadline world.

Brett Anderson, SP - OAK (5%)

Anderson is currently on the DL recovering from Tommy John surgery. Recovery isn't pretty for many pitchers, even great one's like Adam Wainwright, but Anderson was an up and coming ace in Oakland. His rehab starts have gotten progressively better and his velocity is where it needs to be, but control is always the last thing to come back from TJ. He's worth a flier because he has the pedigree and plays in that ballpark. Make a note if you have an open DL spot (and if you do shame on you!), Anderson should be back within 2 weeks.


The Funk-man says: "You know, I thought Ryan Ludwick needs more support."(screenrant.com)


Thursday, August 2, 2012

Looking for a Fight: UFC on Fox 4 - Men of Mystery

Rooby-rooby-roo! It's fight night. (wikipedia.org)


Mysteries can be interesting. Most of them are able to bring an entire story full-circle. Develop ideas or drop some hints in the beginning, take the viewer/reader/etc. on a wild chase, and upon the conclusion reintroduce those early hints for the big reveal to get that always important, "Of course!" reaction.

The most consistent form of mystery story telling is of course Scooby-Doo. Just when Shaggy, Scoob (sometimes Scrappy), Fred, Daphne, and Velma roll up in the Mystery Machine and meet the old in-keeper, carnival ringleader, librarian, rich businessman who is apparently in need, by the time the show is over and the literal mask comes off, and every those initial characters were, shock, the villain who would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those meddling kids.

Didn't see that one coming.
Important to how any mystery unravels isn't so much the conclusion, but how everything leading up to that conclusion ties into what you know, what you didn't know, and how unexpected and caught off you were by the result.

UFC on Fox 4 on Saturday will not only be providing potentially the best fight card Fox has ever had, but it will also be taking the viewers on it's on magical mystery tour with some of the most enigmatic fighters in the organization. Mauricio Shogun Rua, Brandon Vera, Lyoto Machida, and Ryan Bader have all shown elite talent and limitless potential, and also seemed incredibly beatable and crushed under the weight of expectations from themselves, fans, and media. Having all been whooped on by Jon Jones doesn't help one's aura of invincibility either.

Each fighter has had their ups and downs. Aside from Shogun's time in Pride, sustained success has been hard to come by. The way the mystery of these fighters' UFC career has converged in Los Angeles. After Dana White's own "Call Me, Maybe" impression with Rua v. Vera being the #1 title contender fight, maybe, after some backlash from fans, the UFC Pres left things a bit more wide open to include both 205 fights.

Sure, this might be to add some excitement to a Fox card, much to Alex Gustafsson's Swedish chagrin, but we do know no matter the winner, should Jones beat Dan Henderson in September it'll be a II.

The fight surrounded in the most mystery is Lyoto Machida v. Ryan Bader.

Machida with his mojo.
Bader himself had a lot of momentum going until he met Jones in the Octagon. Since then, his one-dementional fighting and inability to put the mix in mixed martial arts set him for a shock loss to the nearly (at the time) retired Tito Ortiz and two losses in a row. Two wins followed, and he actually has the most momentum going into this weekend.

Of course, he's also going against a fighter that couldn't be more different from himself, Machida. Bader is a strong, powerful wrestler with a straight-forward mentality has to track down the notoriously elusive Machida. A fighter who once had an era...that lasted for one fight.

As Machida looks to turn around a scary sight after being choked unconscious by you know who. There is a need for him to regain his mojo. The idea that Machida can't be figured out is a myth. People have done it, and the way to do it is to pressure him, but not chase. Overwhelm him, but not open yourself up to counter striking.

It's hard to imagine that the crumpled man on the ground during that fight with Jon Jones also front jump kicked Randy Couture into retirement and one of his canines into press row, but that's how talented Machida is. His reputation of Brockaphobia (fear of punches) has stalled his progression by becoming too passive. He's saying the right things leading up to the fight, although you have to imagine his confidence is high against Bader. Machida should have a big advantage in the striking and footwork categories. A confident Machida is a dangerous one. Also keep in mind he's extremely tough to take down, even for a guy like Bader.

BREAKDOWN


I look for an old school performance from Machida. He wants a shot at the title, and while a presumably great performance by Rua will trump anything Machida does, it will make Machida aggressive and implement his game plan against Bader. Bader will have to move in, lacking the foot speed to really cause Machida much trouble.

With a focused Machida, I would expect a TKO for the former LHW champ. Bader was dropped up close by a punch on the button by Tito, and Machida knows how to pick his spots. 2nd Round TKO.

Interesting note, Jon Jones tweeted that Bader has a big right hand, the same kind of looping punch that Rua used to give Machida trouble. Worth noting because, well, no one solves mysteries like Jonny Bones.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Looking for a Fight: UFC 149 Just for Laughs

Tim Boetsch may provide some drama at UFC 149, but you should see his comedy.


Fun is a word often associated with UFC. Funny, not so much. It's not funny to see someone get KO'd or submitted. It's fun. Funny comes around every so often in the Octagon (I'm not including Mike Goldberg-isms). It's a Denis Siver stumble, Nate Quarry chasing Kalib Starnes around, or Matt Riddle throwing 8,000 punches and landing about 7.

One such funny instance served as a launching pad for Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch. On February 2, 2008 at UFC 81, Boetsch was a late fill-in to face somewhat up and coming David Heath. Boetsch was basically an afterthought until he came out and showed his immense strength working over a bewildered Heath and literally throwing him to the ground like a rag doll.

With only a loss to Phil Davis since then, Boetsch is set up to welcome former Bellator middleweight champ Hector Lombard to the UFC Saturday night at UFC 149.

There are a lot of exciting fighters on this card, but with the intrigue surrounding Lombard and the power and fury of Boetsch, this will be an encounter full of bashing.

Lombard is basically a tank. He demolished Bellator while he was there, and the Cuban-born Florida-based fighter is primed to potentially be Anderson Silva's next opponent should he shine. Lombard though, should learn from guys like Heath and Yushin Okami that if you underestimate Boetsch, you're night may not turn out the way you planned. Cancel that after party at Tao.

BREAKDOWN

These are two big and strong middleweights. Ultimately it's better for the UFC if Lombard can establish himself and get to Silva. Without seeing many of Lombard's fights, I think this it's likely a win will be coming his way. Should Lombard lose or win in blah fashion, Chris Weidman is waiting, although probably not ready to fight Silva, but he's taking the Chael Sonnen route and trying to see if his mouth can get him there.

Lombard has experience with high pressure fights. He's looking to make a splash, and unless he makes a mistake by taking Boetsch too lightly, he should be able to finish the redhead. If Lombard wants that title shot, he's going to have to go for it. I say 1st Round TKO Lombard.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Irresponsible Sports: A Rivalry Begins at the 2012 #ASG

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout Hate Each Other!! (mlb.si.com)
While last night's all-star game was the perfect blend of fan event and actual baseball; meaningful and meaningless; out with the old and in with the new what it will be is the beginning of the blood feud between Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.

Both stars are first-time all-stars and under the legal drinking age in the USA. But with so much hype and bravado, these two ill-adjusted youngsters clearly are keeping one eye on the other. Trout threw the veil off of their hatred for each other during the #ASG presser.

Clearly there is only room in this town for one ultra talented future mega-duperstar in MLB, and as far these two go, there's only one way to settle it. Not on the diamond, but in a mega-galactic crescent sword fight battle!


While already deciding that Harper would be Larry Bird to Trout's Magic Johnson in this rivalry, thus taking more claim as the better overall basketball player and wishing HIV on Trout...although Trout does get to own the Dodgers and some nifty movie theaters in the future, I will expect blood to be spilled over this, and the true question being who is Kirk and who is Spock?

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Looking for a Fight: UFC 148 Silva Silences Sonnen

Anderson Silva was able to retain his title and definitively beat Chael Sonnen (sports.yahoo.com)
When officials were done pulling Anderson Silva off of Chael Sonnen Saturday night in Vegas, and after we all gained clarity that Silva's seemingly controversial knee was actually expertly placed as only he can, the breadth of UFC fans sat back and said, "Well that was anti-climactic."

This is an all too common reaction by MMA fans expecting the seeming unexpected. Not everyone can pull of a wheel kick KO, or even more improbably expect Chael Sonnen to repeat what he did in Silva Sonnen I regardless of how you feel if Silva was injured during that fight or not.

Although the first round did look like some of the greatest hits, it was clear Silva was at least more prepared to be on his back in this fight. He defended Sonnen well, controlled him from guard and minimized damage. It wasn't until the 2nd round when Silva finally stuffed Sonnen, and Chael's infamous ill-fated spinning backfist left him at the mercy of the champ. The fight was over.

So yes, anti-climactic is one way to describe what was deemed by the UFC as their biggest fight ever (this month or this half of the year or whatever) since Chael had the gameplan, it worked for close to 6 rounds but in an audacious move for anyone not named Chael Sonnen attempted to catch Silva off-guard, thus up-and-ending the evening a little faster than the largest gate in Vegas MMA history expected.


There's no way this was going to be a repeat of Silva Sonnen I, and even if it was there would still be some disappointment in the MMA world about this.

What should be happening is before we all start going crazy for Jonny Bones vs. Anderson Silva, let's take some time to appreciate the best MMA artist that ever lived.

Apparently this guy wasn't the last emperor. There's still one out there, and he was able to further cement his throne with a couple more title scraps left under his belt.

Silva took the biggest challenge of his career, met it head on, and finished his greatest threat to date. There's different ways to look at everything that Chael was never that good or 185 division has been the weakest or whatever you like, but that would be, again, taking away from watching a master at work.

Longevity is not a gift in any sport, certainly not MMA. For Anderson to do what he has done is more than any fight fan could ask for. We just know that he needs to be challenged, he needs to be interested, and he needs to be prepared. With those elements in place, you're going to be entertained, and Anderson will probably win.

Now, whether that lurking challenge is coming at 185 or if he elects to move up to 205, that is his decision. He's earned the right to ride off in the sunset the way he wants. Fans shouldn't treat Silva as though he'll be around forever or if he doesn't fight Jon Jones it'd be a tarnished legacy. Chuck Liddell never moved up in weight, Randy Couture has double digit career losses...anyone mad at them?

Fans want what they want. I'd be happy to pay for Silva Jones, but if it never comes so be it. I'll be looking forward to the next time the Spider struts his stuff in the Octagon.