Fantasy Funkhouser: Baseball Ranks for 2013 - Round 3

Can Edwin Encarnacion flex his fantasy muscle again in 2013? (sportsnet.ca)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Quick revamp to the format - instead of listing the players by 12 at a time, easier to follow along by fantasy draft round in a standard 12 team league. And yes, due to my format change and generally lacking an idea for how to best lay these rankings out, #25 David Price should be on this list, but I already included him in Round 2. So, with my ranking mismanagement acknowledged; welcome to Round 3, playboy.

Things start to get interesting in Round 3. The first two rounds are reserved for studs, where pending injury or a statistical fall off - those players should produce. Round 3 offers a range of the worst kinds of players. The risky/high ceiling type.

In fact, Matt Cain's stability is why he finds himself at 26. I originally had Cole Hamels there, but early workout shoulder wonkiness has scared me off just enough to swap him with Cain.

Every other player has a substantial amount of question marks. Two of the three shortstops on the list aren't a guarantee to make it to even 120 games played, and the third (Starlin Castro) may have found some extra pop and steals under the Christmas tree for being a good boy, but lost 20 points in batting average and eclipsing 100 strike outs. With his complete lack of ability to walk, is this just a bump on the way to Castro fulfilling his 20/20 destiny - or is a drop off ready to show itself?

Edwin Encarnacion busted on the stage last year, much like his Toronto teammate Jose Bautista did in 2010. Joey Bats kept the ride going, but health will be a major contributor to Encarnacion. Along with him being only OF eligible this year (and likely only UTIL next year, dynasty owners) his value takes a ding.

I do like the two Rangers very much. Ian Kinsler suffers from what ails Castro - no BB's, high K's, but he appears to have shaken the injury bug that side tracked him for a couple of years and has checked into the 30/30 club twice in his career.

Adrian Beltre continues to be one of the most underrated players in fantasy. If his name was David Wright, people would be going bonkers. Aside from the steals Mr. Met brings to the 5x5 scene, Beltre can grip in and rip it. Oddly enough, in a world where players are remembered in the positive for a season or two over multiple years of shaky performance, Beltre seems to be penalized for a couple of lost years in Seattle; even though he hit 25 or more homers in 3 of the 5 seasons there. Since moving to Texas, he's been 30/100 and that includes only playing 124 games in 2011! Age is becoming more a factor, but there will be plenty of runners on base for him to drive home in 2013.

Finally, we have to mention poor Clifton Phifer Lee. He only won 6 games last year, although that's hardly his fault. His peripheral stats were very close to previous years - with his HR number and BABIP rising ever so slightly. After watching many of his starts last year, he certainly seemed to have it some nights, and not have it others, but keep in mind Lee wasn't a starter his whole career. He didn't cross 200 IP until his age 26 season, which is much more in line with how more modern pitchers are being brought along. Don't let his lack of wins scare you off. There's still plenty of gas left in the tank of the 34 year old. He certainly has it in him to finish a top 5 fantasy pitcher.

RANK

NAME

POSITION

26	MATT CAIN	SP
27	STARLIN CASTRO	SS
28	ADRIAN BELTRE	3B
29	IAN KINSLER	2B
30	EDWIN ENCARNACION	1B/DH
31	COLE HAMELS	SP
32	CURTIS GRANDERSON	OF
33	TROY TULOWITZKI	SS
34	DUSTIN PEDROIA	2B
35	JAY BRUCE	OF
36	JOSE REYES	SS
37	CLIFF LEE	SP

On Deck: Ryan Zimmerman, Jered, Weaver, Madison Bumgarner, Yoenis Cespedes

OVERALL RANKINGS THUS FAR

The most significant trade of the off-season finally transpired last week as Justin Upton was mercifully traded by resident looney tune GM Kevin Towers to the Atlanta Braves for Martin Prado and some average prospects. The trade reunited Upton with his brother, Bossman Junior, in the ATL, while the Diamondbacks would have traded arguably two of their three most valuable players in the past couple of months (Trevor Bauer being the other, and the argument being that Tyler Skaggs is better). In return, the Diamondbacks received far too little value for both Upton and Bauer.

Damnit, Towers! How could you trade me? Oh, it was Trevor. NVM.

I mentioned the younger Upton in my rankings last week, and although I approve of his move to the Braves as a means to rid himself of all the stress put on him due to the horrid mismanagement by Towers, overall it's hard to tell how it will affect his offensive output. I was already bullish on him by putting him at 17, so with peace of mind and a better line-up to bat in, I'll keep him there for now - with the caveat being his ceiling gets bumped up a couple of notches.

I'm biased about Upton. I have no qualms about saying that. He's on my dynasty team, and I traded for him 2 years ago also acquiring Cliff Lee for Clayton Kershaw and Tommy Hanson, in what probably still is, the biggest blockbuster trade in the league to date. While last year was a step back for Upton, the insistence on trading the 25 year old is crazy to me both in the real and fantasy realms. Let's look at some numbers.

In my curiosity, I started pulling some numbers for some of the more experienced OF in the game. Some players that have a track record that I ranked over Upton in Round 1 & 2. So no Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, or Giancarlo Stanton. I needed a little more statistical meat on the bone.

Below are some numbers for Upton along with the 4 other most valued OF in fantasy. Through their age 23-26 seasons I compared their WAR (5+ is considered elite) as well as wOBA (.400+ is considered elite) numbers. WAR represents the players overall value (defense included) while wOBA serves more of a fantasy purpose relating to pure hitting numbers.

The two main things I took away from looking at the numbers below: The first is that Upton killed the competition at age 23 in WAR and finished 2nd behind only Ryan Braun in wOBA. The second thing is a lot of the disappointment tied to Upton's 2012 might have stemmed from the fact that the jump from age 23 to 24 looks to be a significant one. All the players listed made significant strides in WAR and wOBA (outside of Braun's wOBA going down from .421 to .376). Upton's age 24 season was a disaster by those standards.

Player	WAR	wOBA	WAR	wOBA	WAR	wOBA	WAR	wOBA
	Age 23		Age 24		Age 25		Age 26
Ryan Braun	3.1	0.421	5.0	0.376	4.9	0.403	4.3	0.378
Andrew McCutchen	3.9	0.359	5.8	0.360	7.4	0.403	Will be 26 in 2013
Matt Kemp	3.5	0.345	5.2	0.362	0.5	0.329	8.8	0.413
Carlos Gonzalez	2.1	0.373	6.2	0.413	3.9	0.380	2.7	0.374
Justin Upton	6.4	0.385	2.5	0.341	Will be 25 in 2013
lockration.blogspot.com
Note: At age 23, Gonzalez played 89 games in the majors. Spending 48 games at the Rockies AAA affiliate.

As you continue to look down the road towards age 26, it hasn't been a steady climb for any of these players. We all remember Matt Kemp's age 25 season, otherwise known as the time he gave up on baseball and stayed in bed all day with Rihanna. Carlos Gonzalez has been on a steady decline since his possible career year at age 24. Andrew McCutchen has been progressing wonderfully, although his WAR numbers are boosted from his excellent fielding. His wOBA showed minimal improvement until last year.

Beyond these numbers, when you add on that Upton has been in the majors since he was 19 and already has another 4.8/.385 season (every other player on the list did very minimal work prior to their age 23 season) makes it even more curious why he was hustled out of town. There's nothing, outside of a down year last year, that indicates Upton will be a bust or anything worse than any of these outfielders, with his ceiling being Braun minus the batting average.

Of course, if you were getting Braun value in return, then yes - trade Upton, but after Diamondbacks dragging Upton through the mud and high balling trades for Jurickson Profar and almost getting a deal done  for Tijuan Walker (which was stupid from the get-go as Upton had Seattle on his no-trade list) effectively set and lowered what the Diamondbacks could get. Things became so caustic and the need to rid themselves of Upton became so apparent that the Diamondbacks couldn't even get Julio Teheran or some of the other name prospects they were interested in from Atlanta.

Whether Upton truly has a lazy or bad attitude or whether his thumb injury bothered him all last year, moving him now - at his lowest value - while he is scheduled to earn less than Shane Victorino over the next 3 years is beyond insane.

Ultimately, if the Diamondbacks did think they can't win with Justin Upton, then why not let 2013 play itself out. See how he performs. Odds are he won't do much worse than 2012, and he has the potential to get right back on the wagon as one of the best talents in baseball. The Diamondbacks would have been no worse off waiting a year.

What Kevin Towers and I can agree on is that this is a big year for Upton. If his power doesn't come back and his wOBA doesn't surpass the .370 mark approaching .400 then it's probably safe to say his career arch has changed. No one can know for sure. As a fantasy player, I do know that he's immensely talented, in a good situation with the Braves, and now has a big chip on his shoulder. Anything is on the table for Upton this year. He can be a top 5 player or settle near the back end of the top 100. It will be interesting to watch.

As for my only adjustment to the rankings, I can't keep Robinson Cano down. After starting at 11, Cano has shuffled his way up to 7th on my rankings. This mostly has to do with researching Upton and seeing CarGo's decline. Factor in his horrific home/road splits and injury history, and I had no choice but to bump Cano up. Especially if you're playing in a head to head league. Pending any updates that Kemp's shoulder is nagging him, I feel pretty confident the top 10 will stay as is moving forward.

RANK	NAME	POSITION	CHANGE	PREVIOUSLY
1	MIGUEL CABRERA	3B
2	RYAN BRAUN	OF
3	MIKE TROUT	OF
4	JOEY VOTTO	1B
5	ANDREW MCCUTCHEN	OF
6	MATT KEMP	OF
7	ROBINSON CANO	2B	↑	8
8	CARLOS GONZALEZ	OF	↓	7
9	ALBERT PUJOLS	1B
10	JUSTIN VERLANDER	SP
11	JASON HEYWARD	OF
12	CLAYTON KERSHAW	SP
13	PRINCE FIELDER	1B
14	GIANCARLO STANTON	OF
15	DAVID WRIGHT	3B
16	FELIX HERNANDEZ	SP
17	JUSTIN UPTON	OF
18	JOSE BAUTISTA	OF
19	EVAN LONGORIA	3B
20	STEPHEN STRASBURG	SP
21	BUSTER POSEY	C/1B
22	ADAM JONES	OF
23	JOSH HAMILTON	OF
24	HANLEY RAMIREZ	3B/SS
25	DAVID PRICE	SP
26	MATT CAIN	SP
27	STARLIN CASTRO	SS
28	ADRIAN BELTRE	3B
29	IAN KINSLER	2B
30	EDWIN ENCARNACION	1B/DH
31	COLE HAMELS	SP
32	CURTIS GRANDERSON	OF
33	TROY TULOWITZKI	SS
34	DUSTIN PEDROIA	2B
35	JAY BRUCE	OF
36	JOSE REYES	SS
37	CLIFF LEE	SP

The Funkman says: "Did you just compare Upton to Ryan Braun? The Hebrew Hammer?"

Looking for a Fight: UFC on Fox 6

Why is the main event not treated like the main event? (goldentickets.com)

In everyday life, it's probably not hard to overlook UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson or number one contender John Dodson. When I mean overlook I mean to literally look over them. They both touch the tape at 5'3 and if anything - to the regular, everyday Joe Schmo* on the street - would probably only garner attention for how small they are. That of course right before they'd leap behind you and choke the consciousness out of you.

**I'm perfectly fine admitting that, although fake deaf, I still find Karlee (Jo Newman) really attractive. I mean even if she was deaf, I'd still date her.

Yes, in the ever growing world of MMA fighters come in all shapes and sizes. No longer can one just pick on a guy at the bar (if you're the kind of guy that's into that sort of thing) because you're bigger or apparently stronger. Keeping it real can go wrong.

Of course, whether you are in the real world or being locked in the Octagon, respect has to be earned. Since the inception of the flyweight division in mid-2012 the fighters haven't earned the respect of the fans as they should in the UFC.

So when the main event on a Fox card is the least talked about, well, where's the respect? In fairness, the UFC did load up this card with Quentin "Rampage" Jackson's apparent exit from the UFC against fellow slugger and sneaky ground guy/hype machine Glover Teixeira and a fight everyone is salivating over Donald Cerrone against Anthony Pettis. It's certainly no crime to be excited about every fight on a UFC event, but the overshadowing of the main event is only partially due to the undercard being so stacked.

What I am finding interesting is the lack of interest in the championship bout. Incorporating new divisions have been hit and miss for the UFC. The featherweight division has been a smash. The division champ Jose Aldo is not only one of the pound for pound best fighters on the planet, but he's also headlining the UFC's spectacular pre-Super Bowl card in February by taking on featherweight n00b and former 155 champ Frankie Edgar. Throw in a Korean Zombie and Erik Koch types and the UFC fans have a lot to look forward to.

Batamweight has been a mixed bag. Dominick Cruz is a formidable champ, but he'll be out coming up on 2 years by the time his second knee injury is fully healed. The UFC should have stripped him of the title and let the batamweight division grow, but at this point it's stagnant.

Most recently, the women's division headlined and developed specifically for Ronda Rousey has come under nothing but fire. This is a much larger discussion for another day, but basically it comes down to the vocal minority not wanting to see "chick's fight." Don't think it's gender bias? Both champs previously mentioned (Aldo and Cruz) were given UFC belts right from the get go. No one seemed to care. Now Rousey gets her belt and it's chaos.

Of course the flyweight division has been building. There have been multiple title fights, and no shortage of fighters that push the pace and have the potential for an exciting fight. Fans, however, must adjust their expectation for what this fight can bring. Much like any other division - you can expect a certain kind of fight based upon the make-up and size of the fighters. Light heavyweight has always been one of if not the most exciting division because at 205 you get a perfect combination of size, speed and power. As the scale tips lighter - the power decreases and speed and technicality increases. Flip the scale the other way, and you're looking for a lot of big powerful fighters. So why shouldn't the fans expect a different style of fights by guys that are 125 pounds?

You cannot end a fight in a more spectacular fashion than a knock out. It's the most exciting and the thought that flyweights can't finish fights is unfounded. Dodson, for example, has finished two of his last three fights by KO. Albeit he is an exception at 125 to be able to throw with that kind of power.

So while the possibility of a KO is much more limited, it's important for fans to watch the fight for what these flyweights are. Extremely fast and athletic fighters that will give non-stop energy for 3, 4, and 5 rounds. I don't buy that fans need the KO or finish. Two of the more memorable fights in UFC history that I can think of off the top of my head went to a decision (Griffin v. Bonnar and Couture v. Silvia). Tack on Georges St-Pierre's last five fights and you'll see more of the same. Fans weren't bored by those. GSP's last pay per view had over 700,000 buys.

It's not the lack of finishes were seeing but the disappointment in setting the wrong expectations. If you've never been to In-N-Out Burger but have heard of it, you're expectations are pretty high. If you order your burger animal style, take a bite and it tastes like the stuff you used to get from your elementary school cafeteria, yeah you'll be disappointed. In starting the flyweight division, there is no real "expectation" for these fights. People don't know what to expect, so when they see something like speed (a skill that doesn't translate well on TV, especially when you're going against other speedy fighters) it comes off as boring or poorly executed.

Both Johnson and Dodson have been booed excessively during their few fights in the UFC so far. The fans haven't set their expectations appropriately and also, there hasn't been a signature flyweight fight so far in the UFC. Johnson v. Ian McCall was marred due to judging, not execution. But this fight on Saturday has the potential to be that fight that provides clarity to the fans exactly what fighting at flyweight is all about.

That, of course, is on both Johnson and Dodson to put on that fight. That doesn't mean knock outs and wheel kicks and back flips everywhere, but a high octane fight that is all go and show from the opening bell until someone's hand is raised. Both these fighters will have the chance to put an emphatic stamp on UFC on Fox card, but also win one for the flyweight division.

Eagles New Head Coach

Chip Kelly is bringing his sassy fashion sense, and high powered offense, to Philadelphia.

Well that was unexpected.

After a coaching search that was running out of coaching candidates the Philadelphia Eagles went back to the well to hire Chip Kelly as their new head coach. This move comes as a shock as Kelly had spurned the Eagles and a couple of other NFL offers to return to the Oregon Ducks. But, much like his fast moving, mis-direction offense, Kelly changed his field and accepted the job shortly after fan and odds on favorite Gus Bradley was boarding a ship to fly to Jacksonville after the Eagles failed to secure his signature.

I'm sure more details will emerge regarding Kelly's decision. Did he return to the Birds after a change of heart? Did a little birdie whisper some not so great things about impending NCAA sanctions for Oregon? Or, after missing out on Bill O'Brien, Matt McCoy, and Gus Bradley - did Jeffrey Lurie realize that the assorted fired NFL coaches (Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith, and Brian Billick) wouldn't fit his vision so he made a Godfather offer?

Could be a combination of all of these things. Overall, while people are skeptical of Kelly's NFL abilities, time will tell about that. He is a leader of men and he has been successful everywhere he's went (which does not include 1 hour in the NFL). This will be interesting to see how he adapts his offense to the NFL and with the Eagles personnel. There are exciting players on offense like LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown, DeSean Jackson, Dion Lewis, and Jeremy Maclin. However, the quarterback is in flux. I would not expect this to change Michael Vick returning to the fold as there is just too much blood in the water and Vick has proven he's just not a winner.

I could see Kelly staying with Nick Foles in a modified - less option happy offense - until the right player comes along. Along with taking a stab at a speed QB in the late rounds of the draft. There are still a lot of holes that need to be filled on defense and getting the offensive line healthy. Should Geno Smith fall to the Eagles in the first round, it would still be an ill-advised pick.

Hiring a veteran staff around him will also be paramount. The positive about the NFL coaching landscape now is that there are a lot of experienced coaches out there looking for work. Being able to bring on the expertise of a Whisenhunt or Smith would be a huge coup for the first time NFL coach.

With him officially in place, Kelly's NFL experience will be bolting ahead as fast as his Oregon offense. As mentioned, staff will be needed, scouting needs to get underway for the draft (although you'd hope Kelly already has some insights into a lot of the players since he was at Oregon), and he needs to build a strategy around this Eagles team with the goal of getting them winning again soon.

Fantasy Funkhouser: Baseball Ranks for 2013 - Round 2

Giancarlo Stanton won't have many MLB worthy players around him, but he's a one man show. (Getty)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

After reviewing my first ranks for the Top 12 players, something struck me. What struck me though was one of those things where when I had the epiphany I wasn't sure if it as one of those things where everyone already knew this/had this idea or I had found clarity in unlocking this mystery of the universe.

Like when you only wash your jeans once every couple of months unless there's a noticeable stain or smell on them. You think you may be the only one that does this, but in reality ... everyone does this.

So when I reviewed my ranks, and recalled how annoyed I would be when other fantasy rankings would be, by and large, by the book - I always found that boring. If these analysts like a certain player, then why not show it? Make a note that I'm expecting this player to finish way above expectations - so that's why I ranked him 8th and not 38th like everyone else has them.

When I had done rankings more or less by the book - I realized that what I'm ranking isn't how I think these players will finish the season, but rather where I would draft these players if I did a draft today. I may think that Manny Machado will have a huge year and be the next Mike Trout, but I wouldn't rank him in my top 12 based on that. If I truly thought that about Machado, then I'd just take him rounds and rounds earlier than anyone projected him. 

Aside from certain concessions, like moving Joey Votto to 4th and ranking Robinson Cano (initially at 11, but now) in the 8th spot make my rankings unique in certain ways, but even if I would bet my life that Machado is destined for 30/30, I wouldn't pick him above either of those guys. Only early enough to secure his services. It's really about drafting value, not drafting where you think a player will end up.

That really helped put things in perspective for me. Not necessarily in my Top 25, but further down my rankings approaching the 100's. So do I think Stephen Strasburg can end up the #1 SP in fantasy this year? I do. Would I draft him and his risk factors ahead of proven players like the 3 SP's I have in front of him? No. For some people, Strasburg's upside might be worth that risk.

The only other notable ranking, at least I think, is valuing Justin Upton at 17. At this point, heading into 2013 - you're either on the Justin Upton bandwagon or not. There have been stories about his production, trade value, and potential that cover every possible outcome. There's no telling how this saga will end, but while I have been discouraged by a lot of the Upton stuff, I still think he can be a superstar fantasy player. His initial career arch of multiple MVP's may never happen, but I'd be surprised if he slipped and became an average baseball player. Where he ends up getting traded will certainly have some affect on his stats, but at this point any move away from Arizona would be welcomed. I can't imagine he'd be happy or still want to play for this team.

A lot of the early projections I see have him slightly improving on his year last year; bringing that homerun total over 25 and approaching 100 RBI and 20 steals. Those are conservative estimates based on how down his 2012 was from 2011. If he really was hampered by injury for most of the season (he posted an .898 OPS in September) then he could easily regain his value as a top 10 pick. This is a big year for him though. There's been a lot of distractions, and it will be telling to see how the 25 year-old handles them. Hopefully the D-Backs move him to greener pastures.

RANK	NAME	POSITION	CHANGE	PREVIOUSLY
1	MIGUEL CABRERA	3B
2	RYAN BRAUN	OF
3	MIKE TROUT	OF
4	JOEY VOTTO	1B
5	ANDREW MCCUTCHEN	OF
6	MATT KEMP	OF
7	CARLOS GONZALEZ	OF
8	ROBINSON CANO	2B	↑	11
9	ALBERT PUJOLS	1B	↓	8
10	JUSTIN VERLANDER	SP	↓	9
11	JASON HEYWARD	OF	↓	10
12	CLAYTON KERSHAW	SP
13	PRINCE FIELDER	1B
14	GIANCARLO STANTON	OF
15	DAVID WRIGHT	3B
16	FELIX HERNANDEZ	SP
17	JUSTIN UPTON	OF
18	JOSE BAUTISTA	OF
19	EVAN LONGORIA	3B
20	STEPHEN STRASBURG	SP
21	BUSTER POSEY	C/1B
22	ADAM JONES	OF
23	JOSH HAMILTON	OF
24	HANLEY RAMIREZ	3B/SS
25	DAVID PRICE	SP

On Deck: Cole Hamels, Starlin Castro, Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Cain, Adrian Beltre

The Funkman says: "I can understand it was tough for you to give in on Cano. But, as a friend, it's the right thing."