Fantasy Funkhouser: Fantasy Baseball 2013 Ranks - Round 8

At what point does Gallardo's value and risk intersect to maximize value? (eog.com)

Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

Adam Carolla has a theory. Well, this is one of his many theories. He says that at a certain point as he began to gain celebrity from Loveline, The Man Show, Crank Yankers, and now his eponymous podcast at the same time, somewhere there was a famous person subsequently losing their celebrity. One person is rising; the other falling. At one point, their star paths would cross, and he'd be able to have sex with this (presumably female) celebrity. His reference point is Cheryl Ladd from the hit TV series Charlie's Angels. When Charlie's Angels was on TV Carolla was but a child. Ladd, on the other hand, was a 20-something bombshell. As time and fame altered course, there was a point - so the theory goes - where Carolla not only surpassed Ladd's fading star power, but also when age was factored in - became the more appealing portion of the duo which would allow him to easily bed the fair maiden.

The theory seems implausible, but the tenets are resolute. Weighing in different factors can draw two separate entities together. The further development or recession of these traits gradually tend to flip the value where the escalating individual will surpass the more tenured track record of the other. Now, while this may be a great lead in to discuss Albert Pujols next year, I want to tweak Carolla's theory for fantasy purposes.

Instead of the end game being sex; let's make it something much less appealing. Weighing fantasy baseball player values.

One of the best things and more difficult things I've started to do when looking at player values is try to let the player's name not matter as much as the stats. Looking at the numbers provides reasonable comps for a higher rated player you may be able to get later in the draft. Uncovering this value is very helpful, but as you look at comparisons and keep searching for the best value player you can find; this trip down the rabbit hole can also misguide you. 

Going back to Carolla's theory - I'm looking not at celebrity and age, but rather relative value and risk to see where fantasy baseball players' values intersect to give the best value relative to draft position and risk involved taking the less "valuable" player. I know this is confusing, and may only make sense in my mind right now, so I'd like to present an example por favor. Using a tide and true methodology, please see the below blind test for two players from 2012.

Player A: 16 wins, 3.66 ERA, 204 K's, 9.0 K/9, 2.52 K/BB
Player B: 15 wins, 3.48 ERA, 200 K's, 8.5 K/9, 3.7 K/BB

Pretty close. 

Player A: Yovani Gallardo (Rank: 85)
Player B: Zack Greinke (Pre-injury Rank: 43)

Not close. Pre-Greinke's elbow trouble this spring, there were almost 3.5 rounds that separated both pitchers in my rankings. Now, two things - this example worked better when Greinke wasn't hurt. His wonky elbow has placed his name in red highlight for injury. Also, if it's my rankings, well then, why don't I have these guys closer?

The luxury that blind tests give you is picking and choosing certain stats. While I will admit I was surprised to see Gallardo (a notorious free bagger) to have a lower K/BB than Greinke, that certainly caught my attention. However, with that you're also ignoring park factors, team factors, upside, other advanced stats that shine brightly on Greinke, and the general instability that has plagued Gallardo in the past.

The point of this is more to making notes of similarities among players with differing draft ranks and seeing if it makes sense to wait for and take on the risk of a Gallardo instead of going for the similar, but more reliable Greinke. For me, again pre-injury, I think it is.

In the one draft I had (standard Y! snake) that I could reference, Greinke went with the last pick in the 3rd Round. Not that he was a particular target of mine in that round, but I had the first pick in R3 and took Dustin Pedroia. My last pick in R4 was Madison Bumgarner, and later in R9 when I selected Gallardo, the position players around that selection were Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman, Paul Konerko, Shane Victorino, Desmond Jennings, Willin Rosario, and Carlos Beltran to name a few.

After the dust settled - waiting on Gallardo as my SP3 (Bumgarner, Chris Sale) netted me Pedroia. While if I was bullish on Greinke, I would have been left with a far less valuable position player in the OF, 1B, or C selected. I take that as a win. That is an acceptable cross section of risk compared to reward for me to make this move.

Now, the second part of weighing player value tends to get a bit more self-destructive. Comparing two or three players is all well and good, but when you focus on multiple players it's easy to lose your bearings between value and risk. 

Let's look at Asdrubal Cabrera and the shortstop position. Cabrera had a down year coming off of his breakout 2012 when he smacked a healthy 25 homers and drove in 92 RBI. His 2013 though is nothing to sneer at. He went 70/16/68/9/.270. So while he may have that disappointment stink on him, he still was an above average option at SS. 

Per Andy Behrens at Yahoo!, the average output for the Top 20 6's over the past 3 years has been:

2012 – 74.9 R, 14.2 HR, 63.3 RBIs, 18.9 SB, .271 AVG
2011 – 74.9 R, 12.3 HR, 61.3 RBIs, 17.8 SB, .280 AVG
2010 – 75.3 R, 13.1 HR, 64.2 RBIs, 13.8 SB, .274 AVG

While no one will be reaching for him (ADP: 101) he can very much boost those numbers up a tick towards his 2012 total in Cleveland's new fashioned offense. He seems to be a good middle point for how weighing the value of a player can lead you down a rabbit hole of indecision - that ultimately makes you make the wrong decision. Let's bring out another blind test for SS, but let's use projections for 2013.

Cabrera: 77 R, 16 HR, 73 RBIs, 11 SB, .273 AVG

Player V: 67 R, 17 HR, 68 RBIs, 19 SB, .268 AVG

Player W: 70 R, 15 HR, 62 RBIs, 14 SB, .291 AVG

Player X: 66 R, 13 HR, 65 RBIs, 12 SB, .274 AVG

Player Y: 81 R, 12 HR, 69 RBIs, 9 SB, .292 AVG

Player Z: 73 R, 11 HR, 69 RBIs, 19 SB, .290 AVG

With Cabrera serving as a baseline for average starting SS in a standard fantasy league, the other players on the list seem pretty comparable. Player Y's runs certainly stand out, but other than that, it appears ADP will have a big role in discovering who is worth taking. By just looking at the numbers, it's easy to continue down, down, down the rankings where you become so obsessed with value, that you either can't register who is most valuable out of this group, or you begin devaluing everyone. 

Out of the group of SS's I've selected (a noted shallow position this year) all of the above would fit the criteria for an average fantasy SS. However, once the names are revealed, they all range in ADP from 37 to 221.

Do you want this man as your starting fantasy SS? (GETTY)

Player V: Ian Desmond (ADP: 65)

Player W: Josh Rutledge (ADP: 197 )

Player X: Alexi Ramirez (ADP: 221)

Player Y: Martin Prado (ADP: 112 )

Player Z: Starlin Castro (ADP: 37)

Pretty wide range of players there. Now, as I mentioned the caveat that makes the blind test so wonderful is that it focuses on a limited number of factors. Those projections are in line (and yes, I'm just as shocked at Castro's line as you are, but I don't make projections) but you'd clearly rather have the high floor of a Castro over the complete unknown that is Josh Rutledge. Nor would you be happy coasting past Ian Desmond so you can secure Alexi Ramirez in the last round.

Maybe seeing these projections heightens the value of Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately it's important to know when to say enough is enough. The risk is no worth the reward. If I strike out on Rutledge in a thin position, then I'm completely stuck. 

I recently found myself going through this with an outfielder, who as of now will remain nameless. He projects outside the top 100, but when I looked at comps for him, I saw guys ranked much earlier as well as much later. Soon enough I found myself saying, well he only looks to get x more runs and y more RBI so why not wait? That's exactly the kind of question that leads to find value, but if you start stretching it too far the risk you're taking on is high.

For better or worse, players are ranked not on projections, but their names (i.e. track records). Some times this can lead to overvaluing players. If you can keep your focus and find that perfect intersection point, it's a great way to get some steals in your draft.

RANK	NAME	POSITION
84	YOVANI GALLARDO	SP
85	JAMES SHIELDS	SP
86	JONATHAN PAPELBON	RP
87	ELVIS ANDRUS	SS
88	JORDAN ZIMMERMANN	SP
89	CARLOS SANTANA	C
90	MARTIN PRADO	2B/3B/OF
91	SERGIO ROMO	RP
92	FERNANDO RODNEY	RP
93	CHASE HEADLEY	3B
94	ASDRUBAL CABRERA	SS
95	ALEX RIOS	OF
96	JOSE ALTUVE	2B

On Deck: Ike Davis, Ryan Howard, Brandon Morrow, Ian Kennedy

OVERALL RANKINGS THUS FAR

Injury bug reigns supreme again this week. Roy Halladay, Chase Headley, and Mark Teixiera all drop down. Tex is barely worth owning with possible season ending surgery looming. Headley was looking to be a steady contributor, but a broken thumb will delay his opening day by about a month. 

Also, Halladay has looked shaky at best with his velocity and more importantly his control. As optimistic as I was about him, I'm starting to drop back a bit - even though I hate focusing on spring training stats, he has raised questions in key areas that will carry over into the regular season. As for David Wright's injury, I'm waiting to hear more. It's not going to alter my value on him just yet as several players under him have questions as well.

Finally, Greinke's elbow is scary. As Buster Olney reported, elbow inflammation doesn't just happen, it's usually a by product of something else. The most recent reports seem encouraging, but you have to be hesitant going in for Greinke.

As a note - I only intended to run about my first 100 ranks. I may publish as much as I have in the coming weeks, but I'll try to get one more out before the regular season. After my keeper league draft on Saturday I definitely want to put out a team of guys I want on my team this year. Not necessarily sleepers, but a mixture of guys I have a keen eye on. Might do a draft wrap as well, but that's debatable as there's already enough going on during the draft along with copious amounts of beer flowing at the Tilted Kilt.

RANK	NAME	POSITION	CHANGE	PREVIOUSLY
1	MIGUEL CABRERA	3B
2	RYAN BRAUN	OF
3	MIKE TROUT	OF
4	JOEY VOTTO	1B
5	ANDREW MCCUTCHEN	OF
6	MATT KEMP	OF
7	ROBINSON CANO	2B
8	ALBERT PUJOLS	1B
9	CARLOS GONZALEZ	OF
10	JUSTIN VERLANDER	SP
11	PRINCE FIELDER	1B
12	CLAYTON KERSHAW	SP
13	JASON HEYWARD	OF
14	GIANCARLO STANTON	OF
15	DAVID WRIGHT	3B
16	FELIX HERNANDEZ	SP
17	JUSTIN UPTON	OF
18	JOSE BAUTISTA	OF
19	EVAN LONGORIA	3B
20	STEPHEN STRASBURG	SP
21	ADRIAN BELTRE	3B
22	HANLEY RAMIREZ	3B/SS
23	JOSH HAMILTON	OF
24	BUSTER POSEY	C/1B
25	ADAM JONES	OF
26	DAVID PRICE	SP
27	TROY TULOWITZKI	SS
28	EDWIN ENCARNACION	1B/DH
29	IAN KINSLER	2B
30	MATT CAIN	SP
31	COLE HAMELS	SP
32	STARLIN CASTRO	SS
33	DUSTIN PEDROIA	2B
34	JAY BRUCE	OF
35	JOSE REYES	SS
36	CLIFF LEE	SP
37	ADRIAN GONZALEZ	1B/OF
38	MATT HOLLIDAY	OF
39	RYAN ZIMMERMAN	3B
40	JACOBY ELLSBURY	OF
41	ADAM WAINWRIGHT	SP
42	MADISON BUMGARNER	SP
43	BRYCE HARPER	OF
44	JERED WEAVER	SP
45	BRANDON PHILLIPS	2B
46	ALLEN CRAIG	1B/OF
47	YU DARVISH	SP
48	YOENIS CESPEDES	OF
49	BILLY BUTLER	1B
50	BEN ZOBRIST	2B/SS/OF
51	PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT	1B
52	GIO GONZALEZ	SP
53	R.A. DICKEY	SP	↑	56
54	B.J. UPTON	OF	↑	59
55	ARAMIS RAMIREZ	3B	↑	66
56	ZACK GREINKE	SP	↓	43
57	CRAIG KIMBREL	RP
58	CC SABATHIA	SP
59	IAN DESMOND	SS
60	YADIER MOLINA	C
61	AUSTIN JACKSON	OF	↑	67
62	AROLDIS CHAPMAN	SP/RP
63	MAT LATOS	SP
64	JASON KIPNIS	2B
65	PABLO SANDOVAL	3B	↓	54
66	KRIS MEDLEN	SP
67	DESMOND JENNINGS	OF
68	JOHNY CUETO	SP
69	BRETT LAWRIE	3B
70	JIMMY ROLLINS	SS
71	CHRIS SALE	SP
72	ALEX GORDON	OF	↑	78
73	MAX SCHERZER	SP
74	AARON HILL	2B
75	JOE MAUER	C/1B
76	MATT MOORE	SP
77	MICHAEL BOURN	OF	↓	73
78	SHIN-SOO CHOO	OF
79	ANTHONY RIZZO	1B
80	FREDDIE FREEMAN	1B
81	ROY HALLADAY	SP	↓	62
82	JASON MOTTE	RP
83	MATT WIETERS	C
84	YOVANI GALLARDO	SP
85	JAMES SHIELDS	SP
86	JONATHAN PAPELBON	RP
87	ELVIS ANDRUS	SS
88	JORDAN ZIMMERMANN	SP
89	CARLOS SANTANA	C
90	MARTIN PRADO	2B/3B/OF
91	SERGIO ROMO	RP
92	FERNANDO RODNEY	RP
93	CHASE HEADLEY	3B	↓	71
94	ASDRUBAL CABRERA	SS
95	ALEX RIOS	OF
96	JOSE ALTUVE	2B

The Funkman says: The only holes I go down are when I'm golfing.

Looking for a Fight: UFC 158

Don't be annoyed, homie. (ufc.com)

Nick Diaz interrupting after a reporter asked Georges St-Pierre if he was pampered: “I hope so, motherf-----. If I had that much money, I’d be pampering myself up and having mother-----s pampering my s--- left and right. Every hour, there’d be [someone] showing up to pamper me. That would be that.”

St-Pierre: “Let me tell you something, uneducated fool. Listen to me. I have not always been rich. I started from the bottom. I made myself and worked very hard to be where I am right now. I know you don’t believe this, because you didn’t succeed yet, and maybe you will never succeed in your life because I don’t think you’re smart enough to understand how you should [act] to reach that point.

“When you talk about people doing stuff for me... when you reach a point for your business, you need a team of people to work for you to make the economy, to keep the money rolling. You don’t know anything about me, man. You have no idea where I come from. You’re not the only jealous guy.”

Diaz: “That sounds nice, Georges. That sounds nice. If I wore some tight shorts out there and got a haircut and had someone buttering me up halfway through [my career] and telling me this bulls---, maybe it would have worked out. You don’t even know where I come from. I’m not jealous, OK? You did what you had to do. I don’t mean to be disrespectful. I don’t have anything against you, and I think you’ve done a great job for who you are and what you have to work with. So what if you’re pampered out? I don’t have anything against that. All I’m saying is that I hope so, motherf-----, because this is some f----d up s---. If I had the money and the right people on my side working with me to make sure I had my s--t ready, I would be doing it. But I’m over here still doing that s---. Try doing that s--- from when you’re 21 all the way until you’re 32, which you are now. It’s a bitch.”

St-Pierre: “If you are where you are right now, and I have what I have, that’s not my fault. That’s because of you, man. You did not succeed. It’s on you, man.”

And to think, people wanted GSP to fight Johny Hendricks.

A media conference call for UFC 158 changed the collective course of excitement for the title fight Saturday night between Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz.

On October 29, 2011 Diaz had just finished bludgeoning B.J. Penn into another retirement, and the controversial Stockton, CA fighter didn't mince his words after his hand was raised. He called out GSP, who at the time was nursing a knee injury that kept him out of his scheduled title defense against Carlos Condit. As the camera stayed, as it usually is, transfixed on Diaz and cut to GSP to see his reaction cage side to being called scared and his injury being questioned, it's clear something inside GSP was burning.

Those initial reactions were confirmed in the post fight press conference by Dana White. He said GSP came up to him and demanded to fight Nick Diaz. He thought Diaz was beyond disrespectful, and he wanted to give Diaz the worst beating of his CAR-eer (emphasized for GSP). The fight made sense. The fans wanted it, Diaz deserved it, and the UFC was eager to put on a show that could pit the completely opposite personas of GSP and Diaz against each other.

Of course though, things didn't go as planned. GSP was training for the Diaz fight when he tore his ACL. He would be out for a year before coming back and defeating interim champion Carlos Condit. Condit won the title by defeating Diaz. After that fight Diaz was then suspended by the Las Vegas Athletic Commission for a year for testing positive for marijuana metabolites during his post fight drug test.

All the while a bearded wrestler from Pennsylvania and his left hook were causing all kinds of trouble. In the time of GSP's injury and the interim situation was going on, Johny Hendricks was making a name for himself. He knocked out Jon Fitch in 12 seconds, beat Josh Koscheck, and knocked Martin Kampmann across the Octagon in less than a minute.

Where a lot of fans stood was if it wasn't a superfight, then they wanted Hendricks against GSP. GSP, however, saw it differently. Whatever Diaz had drudged up so many months ago was still burning inside the 170 lb. Francophone. GSP wanted the Diaz fight, and well, the UFC and Dana White agreed to give one of their top fighters and earners what he wanted. We don't need no stinkin' rankings!

Hendricks was perturbed. Fans were iffy on Diaz getting the title shot. People saw Nick's bro Nate get taken down again and again by Benson Henderson and expected this fight to be a carbon copy of that.

Then, a simple, standard conference call completely erased everyone's collective memory.

Now what we have is a highly tense fight that can be talked about in a million different angles. There's been soundbites and Twitter hashtags. New commercials have been cut and I'm sure the UFC brass is already upping the estimated pay-per-view buys. This is marketing even the slickest of marketers at the UFC could have done. There is only one reason, and that's Nick Diaz.

Diaz is as interesting a character study as you will find in the UFC. No one appears to really know what drives him, what motivates him to act the way he does or why? Is it anxiety? Is he jealous of the success of a guy like GSP? His erratic behavior is so uncontrolled it almost appears to be controlled. As a person he always seemed to be more introverted and not interested in the glitz and glamour of fighting because basically he feels he's never had any of that. He complains about lack of sponsorship, turning to boxing to get paid more, or people just constantly hating on him.

Is what Diaz portrays on the camera just as 100% true and authentic as it gets, or does he have any concept that cultivating this bad boy image (a la Floyd Mayweather) is some of the best marketing one can do?

In a verbal attack on GSP that was as voluminous as his stirkes Diaz went off - spouting emotions from respecting GSP to being insanely jealous of him. His reactions took everyone, including GSP, off guard. Just deciphering the point of what Diaz was saying is tough enough - let alone listening to him speak. His words go a million miles a minute, and he doesn't seem to take as much as a breath let alone think to filter his words before saying them.

What Diaz is ultimately getting at though is himself. When people cannot filter themselves, what ultimately comes out is a reflection on themselves and how they feel. Diaz probably does think GSP is pampered, but that's not meant to be a knock on the champ. Diaz says that would be "nice" if he could have it. He's saying he isn't getting the GSP money and is still struggling. He'd like to be that, but he isn't and in his mind I'm sure he knows he never will be that kind of guy.

But ultimately, that's not what makes Nick Diaz Nick Diaz. His comments may serve some kind of internal purpose for his actions: motivation or aggravating the champ so he makes bad decisions during the fight. That seems a little too easy for Diaz. The reason he can act aloof or irresponsible is because he's trying to figure himself out. He wants to know why GSP is there and he's here. Or why this "pampered" guy gets more respect and love from fans than a guy like himself who is anything but pampered. The word self-destructive comes to mind, but that's too harsh. Diaz doesn't appear to be personally harmful ... maybe only professionally. He appears to be a person that just functions better when things aren't going right. When he's not getting paid or being disrespected or not on the right side of a judges' decision.

His head trainer Caesar Gracie certainly has no idea what to expect from Diaz, but in the UFC Countdown for 158, he said that Nick is just a person that needs adversity. If something is perfect, he'll find a way to mess it up. Well, GSP is near perfect. Come Saturday, Nick Diaz will find a way to mess that up too.

BREAKDOWN

If there's ever been a GSP fight better geared to be a "GSP fight" it's this one. GSP has struggled to finish fighters, even though he has dominated in all of his victories. It would seem unlikely that GSP would be able to submit or knock out the steel chinned/willed Diaz. Diaz won't quit outside of some kind of mental breakdown inside the Octagon. And both guys cardio can go for miles.

One doesn't have to watch every Nick Diaz fight to try to figure out his strategy because it's the same. It's always the same. Game plan and Nick Diaz don't jive together. Out of pure stubbornness Diaz would prefer to just fight his fight. Walk forward, not check leg kicks, taunt, and wait to unload a fury of punches. What Diaz does that I find most interesting is that if he does engage GSP in a back and forth he throws a lot of punches. A lot of them are rather slow and just lightly slapping or hitting his opponent, but when you watch on replay mixed in with these light shots are whipping jabs and hooks that break through an opponents defense when the opponent least expects it. With his long frame and excellent boxing, Diaz can catch anyone off guard.

I'm guessing GSP knows this, and GSP will work the leg kicks and take downs to grind Diaz down. GSP does bring something new to the table every time he fights, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him utilize a lot of leg kicks to neutralize Diaz's striking as well as keep him at bay. Diaz will have to work hard to corner GSP in order to start striking with him, as well as being vigilant of any takedown attempt. Diaz might be confident off his back, but that's not where you want to be against GSP for long spells of time.

The whole dark place thing with GSP is being blown out of proportion a little bit. Sure it's a nice thing to type or say to bring up cheap thrills, but the one thing GSP fears most is losing the title. He might be a bit more aggressive to finish the fight, but he's not walking into a Diaz haymaker. GSP was amped up against Koscheck and BJ Penn II - both of which went significantly in the champs favor. If anything, this dark place is a place where GSP goes every time he fights and a little extra dark energy will only help him.

As predictable as it sounds: GSP by decision.