Thursday, June 6, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: Unpopular Opinion Alert - Rookies

Tony Cingrani should be back in the majors soon. You really shouldn't care. (cbssports.com)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

h/t Unpopular Opinion Alert to Jacoby +Grantland 

Maybe it is just me, but in this post Mike Trout world that we live in, the focus on prospects affecting fantasy teams has never been higher. There's more written, talked about, and added rookies than ever before. Now, this also appears to be rather reasonable as you can see (this is where I'd have a table showing the average performance of the top 10 rookies over the past 10 years ... you know, if i had time and a research team) that it does appear that rookies are getting to the bigs and having a bigger impact more than ever before.

I'm giving kudos to the advanced stats and scouting community for better honing the skills of prospects and deploying them appropriately once they reach the bigs. Just because you're Darin Ruf and hit a massive amount of homers in the minors doesn't mean your MLB material.

So I can understand when the next big prospect gets called up there will be a lot more fantasy owners perking up their ears. What I don't understand is why owners can't differentiate star prospects from just regular ones. Hey, I know, I know there's a vast history of top prospects bottoming out and 13th round picks making good and no matter how aggressive scouts and sabermatricians look at ballplayers this will undoubtedly be true forever, but there are prospects to give a look see and there are prospects to get excited about. 

A group of prospects made their debut this year to more fanfare than actual production, and while they haven't been disasters, these are guys that I'm more than happy to look past in 2013 and even more so down the road. So at the risk of causing some prospect lovers to go nuts, here's why I don't like these prospects.

Tony Cingrani, SP - Reds

Cingrani was a guy I wasn't interested in at all. His deceptive delivery and lack of a secondary pitch screamed of once through the league type guy. Well, that one time through the league was pretty great. In 6 starts he struck out 41 batters in 33 innings. He started to struggle a bit in his last two starts before he was sent back to AAA once Johny Cueto was healthy, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt as just rough starts. Not project any downward trend.

Well, with Cueto set to go back to the DL, you can expect Cingrani back in the bigs next week. I'm sure he'll pitch fine, but he strikes me as more of a great bullpen pitcher. Not just a LOOGY, but like a Sean Marshall type. Plus, Cueto is expected to be on the DL for the minimum amount of time, so Cingrani should be returning to the minors shortly.

Nolan Arenado, 3B - Rockies

Can we please not use the, "He plays half his games in Coors" excuse for Arenado? Sure, he has the potential to hit for power, but that's been non-existent. Along with his inability to draw a walk, his value is greatly diminished in Colorado. This was more of an Unpopular Opinion a couple of weeks ago, but now it's just obvious.

Michael Wacha, SP - Cardinals

I'm not one to turn my nose up at the Cardinals. They have the best farm system and best major league team in all of baseball. So when a touted prospect comes up, you should take notice. But when people start talking about Wacha like he's Shelby Miller or a potential ace, it's just not true. Wacha has developed some better than average secondary pitches, but long-term, if the Cards could pencil him in as their 3rd or 4th starter, I'm sure they'd take that. 

Yasiel Puig, OF - Dodgers

Puig exploded onto the scene as Dodgers rookies have a habit of doing. I'm more optimistic about Puig than the other prospects mentioned just because since he is from Cuba, I feel his low ranking on prospect lists is mainly not knowing what to make of the guy since he has virtually zero minor league experience. He has the tools and natural strength to make a big impact, and we've already seen some of that already. Ultimately though, you have to shake your head when you hear comps of Bo Jackson

There will always be Brien Taylors and Matt Bushs but the time to act is when the Zack Wheelers  and Oscar Taverases get the call. Nothing is wrong with taking a flier, after all, that's really what these prospects are, but once you have them keep expectations in check.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: Judge Reinhold - Making the Case for ... Corey Kluber

Corey Kluber is worth a look in fantasy. (Getty)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

In spite of being 3-7 over their past 10 games, the Cleveland Indians have exceeded expectations in 2013 under Terry Francona. You don't enter June .5 games back of the all-mighty Detroit Tigers without some luck, but what always comes through in the wash is talent and players stepping up. The Indians have had their fair share of players performing at high levels. Justin Masterson has been a Cy Young candidate so far, Mark Reynolds  has 41 RBI, and Carlos Santana appears to be putting together a full season this year carting around a .390 OBP. These are all subject to change - for better or worse - as the season progresses, but since we are into June, there's no reason to take this team lightly.

One player that hasn't gotten much attention thus far has been starting pitcher Corey Kluber. There's probably good reason for this. He's been overshadowed by Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, and an impressive but recently struggling Zack McAllister. All of these guys have more interesting story lines than the 26-year-old former 4th round draft pick, but his time is coming. He's only started 7 games thus far, his last being a 2 IP rain shortened outing, but what he has shown thus far shows all the indications of a productive season.

The main indicator that caught my attention is the 9.55 K/BB ratio. That's tasty. Any time you can strike out a high amount of players and keep those walks down, it's a great way to stay out of trouble. Take out a horrific start at Detroit (no one other than SP1 and select SP2 should be making those starts) his numbers bounce back even more so. His WHIP is a favorable 1.22, and since we can't erase starts in Detroit from the record book, his ERA of 4.36 should settle once his .342 BABIP does. 

Kluber certainly sent some flairs into the sky on May 26th when he chucked 10K's at Fenway. He was on his way to what looked to be another impressive outing 5 days later against Tampa that was, as mentioned rained out.

He has a tricky start coming up against the Yankees, but in deeper leagues I'd add him and watch from the bench. The Yankees aren't the Yankees, but there's no telling what can happen in the Bronx. If he dominates the Yanks his value will only go up. Ultimately what you're looking at is a pitcher that can get you K's and low peripherals. It wouldn't surprise me if he finished the season as the Indians second best pitcher. For what is shaping into a good team, that's a nice bargain to find.

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Looking for a Fight @ UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Bigfoot 2

UFC fans are hoping this sequel is better than the original.

The Hangover Part III was released on Thursday to begrudging enthusiasm. The tepid response and worse reviews are probably no surprise to anyone that witnessed the glee in which people were ready to jump all over The Hangover Part II when it was released in 2011. As the sequel to the 2009 breakout hit The Hangover, Part II was a giant prosthetic dick slap to the face. Watching it in the theater was a completely jarring experience, as Part II is exactly the same move as the original, only set in Thailand. If you haven't seen it for yourself, I cannot express how outwardly lazy and stupid this movie is. Aside from a couple of minor changes you could probably watch these movies side by side and hit the same notes as the movie progresses.

So appalled was I, that the only thing I can think of is that the writers basically said, "Well, we can put out anything with these guys (Bradley Cooper, Zack Galifanakis, and Ed Helms) in it, and it'll make bank, so instead of trying and making a sequel people hate, let's give them a carbon copy of the first movie, then make money on the second, and then we'll see what we can do on the third." I can accept that in the same way that if you teleported me into the life of Nickelback's bassist, I'd live making the worst music ever created if it meant making tens of millions of dollars. Yes, artistic integrity means little to me. Man has got to eat!

Anyway, sequels are a tough thing to pull off. Usually they are just tired remakes that reuse the same jokes (take note Anchorman2!), stories, or beefing up the characters/number of characters from the original. Making multiple sequels for The Hangover, which cost $35 million and made $467 million makes sense. Making a sequel of Velasquez vs. Bigfoot I is a much more difficult situation. That would be like making a sequel to John Carter from Mars. It doesn't make sense.

The first match took place as the co-main event at UFC 146: Dos Santos Vs. Mir. Velasquez was coming off his loss to JDS, where it was revealed Cain was nursing an injury that caused him to weigh in above his normal fight weight of around 240 lbs. (oh yeah, well when JDS lost to Cain, he had muscle fiber breaking down into his blood stream! You've been one-upped.) JDS had an undisclosed knee injury as well, so chalk that up for what it's worth. So Cain was looking to prove some of the doubters that he was the best heavyweight (ever?) on the planet and switched his cyborg mainframe to kill and obliterated Bigfoot Silva.

People weren't exactly banking on a rematch a year later. But Silva made that happen for himself. After enough blood donations, the Brazilian got back into the ring and knocked out Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem. The Overeem KO was a massive upset considering everyone was already pondering an Overeem fight against Cain. Again, how can you not love a sport where a guy like Bigfoot is taken lightly? The guy is 6'4 over 265 lbs. with hands that would put man-hands to shame, and a head that served as the inspiration for Easter Island. He looks like a children's nightmare. Then again, if you look like an in shape Overeem, you're probably used to thinking you can deal with pretty much anyone.



Well, as history tells us, The Reem carried his hands a bit too low, and Bigfoot's big hands tattooed loser across The Reem's face. So, here we are. The sequel to the movie no one wanted to see.

Thankfully, nothing lends itself to rematches like sports, more specifically combat sports.

Although there isn't much doubt as the outcome of the main event on Saturday, there is always a curiosity to see what will go down. If that's not enough to spark your interest, then the UFC did what the UFC does. Put together fights that are sure to be crowd pleasers.

However, in adding the likes of Donald Cerrone, Junior Dos Santos, and crew they put together a lot of potentially explosive fights, but fights that are fairly one-sided. What that means to me is that we should all be expecting an upset or two.

If the UFC can recreate the excitement that was the 146 card, then they'd be in good shape. That card too was headlined by a perceived easy match as JDS fought Mir, and while it was, in total there were 9 finishes including every main event fight. That's some damn exciting stuff.

So with the upset patrol out in full force, I'm going with James Te Hua over Glover Teixiera as my upset pick. But I am looking forward to the whole card, as it should be a pulse pounding one.



Thursday, May 16, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: Yeah, About That ...2013 Q1 Edition

Don't hate me, Manny. (USAT)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

The quarter point of the baseball season is here, and that gives us enough time to reflect back and see what's really going on in the world of Major League Baseball. Sure, the injury bug seems to be running rampant over the first quarter and there does seem to be a large percentage of players playing way above their pay grade (eh, Jean Segura?). But a quarter of a season does not a baseball season make. Some players will slump and others will rise, but there are some players that have jumped out at me that I didn't expect to at all.

I'm going to list some players that are exceeding my expectations, and I expect them to keep going. I did throw together some fantasy crush picks back in March, and some are looking pretty, preeetty, preeeeettttay good so far. But I'm not just going to rehash the players I missed (although looking back, I do regret not expanding it to all players so I could present my love for some higher ranked players I had tagged early on, like Paul Goldschmidt). Onward!

Manny Machado, 3B - Orioles

Not that anyone didn't expect Machado to be good. He's bred to be a superstar. But that he's this good already is shocking. The Macho Man has 23 XBH, .920 OPS, and plays gold glove defense just for fun. I had him moving along at this pace early in 2014, not right now. His 2012 was solid, but there have been no signs of a slump for Manny. He's a star for years to come.

Carlos Gomez, OF - Brewers

Carlos won't be keeping up his .365 AVG, but everything else is for real. The power, the speed, the increased walk rate. Everything is in line for Gomez to build off his post-sleeper break out last year. Yes, I was a member of the Carlos Gomez fan club last year, but my faith waivered heading into 2013. With his deserved ranking, I was just too nervous to invest in Gomez. I hit pay dirt last year, why not get up from the blackjack table, cash out, smoke a cigar, and let the wonderful memory that was the 2nd half of 2012 remain? Well, this is why.

Justin Morneau, 1B - Twins

The one-time MVP of the AL, Morneau has battled a lot of injuries over the past couple of years. I was happy to drive his fantasy self to the local dump and dispose of the body. Thus far in 2013 though, he's been showing flashes of the old Morneau. Healthy and confident, Morneau leads the team in RBIs and is batting over .300. While his slash line matches up with what he did in 2012 (134 games, 19 HR, 77 RBI) - if he can stay health he can get to 100 RBI. The power is just something that will never be back, but in the wasteland that is 1B, Morneau is looking ready for a bounce back.

Ike Davis, 1B - Mets

Speaking of horrible 1B - it's not all roses for predicting fantasy baseball. I listened to what the other experts said about Ike coming into the year. His strong finish to 2012, the quietest 30 HR you'll ever find, his health coming into the season that will lead to great things. Well, he's as horrible as ever. Delivering a line that if he keeps up for 3 more weeks, will likely see him in the minors. Last year Davis put up similarly horrid numbers, then turned it around on Memorial Day. He's worth keeping an eye on to see if history repeats, but Davis is looking like a complete wash out.

Carl Crawford, OF - Dodgers

Kudos for Crawford for finding health and peace of mind in LA. Few others have. Early favorite along with Justin Upton for the Change of Scenery Award, Crawford has rediscovered himself after a miserable stretch in Boston where health and happiness were not easily found. He's off to a great start, and while he will need to be rested every now and again, he's running and being productive atop a weak Dodgers line-up.

Pitching, by and large, has been a disaster. I'm not sure if I dodged a bullet with my picks or what, but there's very little to report from a disappointment standpoint. I still thought Stephen Strasburg was overrated for this season, I loved Yu Darvish, and who could have guessed that proven stars like David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Yovani Gallardo would go in the tank. If I had to pick one major disappointment, it'd be Roy Halladay. Beating yourself up over injuries is never a good way to go through life, but with Halladay, I wanted to believe he'd be fine just because he's Doc. After admiring him north of the border in Canada and when my Phillies acquired him, I couldn't have asked for a better baseball experience. He's the best pitcher of a generation, and I'd hate to see his career come to a close like this. But history says it will. Sure, he might come back, pitch for some completely weird team like the San Diego Padres, but it won't be the same.

SOME LATE ENTRIES

Willin Rosario - C, Rockies

With Rosario, I was nervous about his propensity to strike out often, and along with his below average defense, a road to the bench or even AAA crossed my mind. Well, the defense might not have gotten any better, but his 8 HR and 3 SB are music to an owner's ears. Sure he's come down off his astronomical start, but that'll happen with a streak-ish player like the Baby Bull. Coors helps anyone, but it's not as apparent for Rosario who is actually only carrying a .664 OPS at Coors compared to mashing at a .960 clip on the road. Both will even out to a certain extent, but the moral of this tale is that the end product is a great offensive catcher.

Anibal Sanchez, SP - Tigers

Sanchez always had the potential to be special. He appears to have gotten past the injuries that slowed him early in his career, but I always thought he was just one of those guys that had the stuff, but would never figure things out. A thrower, not a pitcher - as the derisive crowd would say. After a strong playoffs, Sanchez has apparently figured things out. His K% and velocity is up, and with a porous defense behind him, he is still operating with a fantastic 1.45 FIP, which is tops in baseball.


The Funkman says: "Look at this guy! He drafted Ike Davis in the 10th round!"



Friday, May 3, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: Platooning Isn't Just for the Super Rich Anymore, You Can Do it Too!

Have a day, Brandon Moss! (newswhip.com)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

May is over, and while you shouldn't be panicking about your fantasy team, it's inevitable that on one squad or another, there's cause for concern. While there are a plethora of things that might be ailing your team, let's say you find yourself struggling at first base. The talent at 1B is soooo deep this year ... you heard. If you can't get Prince Fielder or Joey Votto feel free to wait and wait some more. Sure you could have nabbed Allen Craig later than those guys ... the same Craig who hasn't hit a home run yet (and yes I linked to that to show you I picked Chris Davis as a sleepy pick at 1B). Yeesh. 

Needless to say that depth at 1B so far hasn't materialized. A couple of the top guys are right where they belong, but those middle tier/proven veteran guys that are supposed to take a leap/remain consistent have stalled at the gate.

Had your fill of Ike Davis, wondering if Paul Konerko's battle with father time is up, or if you realize that Freddie Freeman can be just as brilliant as he is frustrating, there's answer to your problems. It's platooning. 

Yes, platooning has carried a negative stigma around for quite some time. When a baseball team platoons a position, it's like having two goalies in net ... it basically means you have no one. In this new baseball day and age though, platooning has been used by ball clubs on the cheap to essentially create a well above average player by exploiting match-ups. With the increased dominance of pitching these days, those middle to bottom rung guys might have been able to get by, but if you're Ike Davis and can't hit a lefty (or at this point anyone) then as the game moved into the later innings, there's a lefty coming out of the pen that throws 95 mph and the rest of Davis' night is basically toast - let alone when he's matched up against a Cliff Lee type. You might as well kneel at the alter and pray for at least one base hit.

Now, teams like the A's, Pirates, Yankees, and Red Sox have used platooning to cover up some nasty holes in their line-up. It's added real life value to the Daniel Navas and Travis Hafners of the world. Well, in fantasy players like this are readily available for mass consumption. 

Let's take a look at two failing 3'ers this year. Allen Craig and Paul Konerko. Both were ranked in the top 100 in Yahoo! standard leagues, so if you did draft both of these guys, you were pretty aggressive diving into the first base pool.

As of today's date, their lines are: 

Player AB AVG R HR RBI SB
Allen Craig 103 0.262 11 0 20 0
Paul Konerko 97 0.227 10 4 15 0
Average 100 0.245 10.5 2 17.5 0
Per AB Average 1 N/A 0.105 0.02 0.175 0

Not great. Now maybe you're playing just one of these guys, but odds are you've been hoping for both of them to turn it around in your 1B and CI or UTIL spot. While I certainly wouldn't cut bait on Craig, let's say Paulie just isn't doing it for you anymore. Dump him if you like, as I have no idea what his trade value is unless there's another 1B depressed owner in your league.

It'll take up another roster spot, but if you added two much more available guys like Brandon Moss (57% owned) and Kendrys Morales (48% owned) and played them only when the match-ups favored them (Moss v. RHP; Morales v. LHP) what kind of production would you get?

Player AB AVG R HR RBI  SB
Brandon Moss (v. RHP) 66 0.303 N/A 4 14 1
Kendrys Morales (v. LHP) 40 0.275 N/A 2 5 0
Total 106 0.289 N/A 6 19 1
Per AB Average 1 N/A N/A 0.057 0.179 0.009

On a per at bat average, these two players, when platooned, provide better production out at 1B than Craig and Konerko. The output on Moss' end vastly surpasses Morales', however, there's a decent likelihood there's already someone on your roster that can bash against southpaws better than Morales anyway. Of course, this is a SSS and Moss is coming off of a nice run, but this is something that Moss did last year as well on his way to 21 homers. His slash line last year against northpaws was .290/.363/.643 - that's a 1.000+ OPS.

Certainly, this strategy is more geared towards daily leagues, but it is a viable option to find a cheap way to kick start certain positions. By certain positions, I mean largely 1B and OF as they have the more flexible player options, and power at those positions are more easily projected than say average or speed categories.

Do what you will, but this is a simple option that could lead to some significantly sneaky production.


The Funkman says: Kendrys Morales? You can't be serious.