Monday, July 8, 2013

Looking for a Fight @ UFC 162: The Aftermath

This isn't a dream. Chris Weidman is the UFC Champ. (espn.com)
If Helen of Troy had the face that launched a thousand ships, then the title fight between Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman on Saturday night at the MGM Grand is the fight the launched a million blog comments.

In one of the most surreal fights in the UFC, the pound-for-pound champion was flattened by 9-0 #1 contender Weidman in the early 2nd round. Like most things though, it's not the final outcome, but how the final outcome happened that left fight fans everywhere speechless. People have read, seen, heard, or absorbed what happened Saturday night, but in short Silva goofed around with a very dangerous opponent and for the first time in his UFC career paid for it.

As I was watching the fight, after Silva got back to his feet after an early takedown and submission attempt by Weidman the Maia/Griffin/Bonnar shenanigans began. This time though, Silva must have attended the Actor's Studio because his motions and antics were even more pronounced and foolish. So seeing him horizontal with the floor of the Octagon was jarring enough, once he had a chance to explain himself in the ring to Joe Rogan, that's when things really went crazy.

Silva was gracious in defeat, but he also mentioned not wanting a rematch. He wanted to get back to Brazil with his family. Weidman was the champion and he deserved respect. For a man that had rarely known defeat, a man who many consider the best fighter on the planet to seem so ... relieved at losing his title this led to a whole new world of questions.

Was the pressure getting to him? Was the fight fixed? Was Silva too confident? Did Silva underestimate Weidman? What the hell just happened?

I'm not conspiracy theorist (although I do love hearing about them) so assuming any sort of fight fixing is a bridge too far for me. What makes Silva's in-ring decisions so hard to grasp is that the man himself is hard to grasp. Dana White has said on multiple occassions that Silva can act erratic and odd. "He's like a great artist," White would say when referencing his handling of Silva. Well, you know what happens to great artists? They go fucking nuts sometimes.

They chop their ear off, they break up a gigantic band in their prime, they disappear, they kill themselves, and on and on. Look, being a genius is all kinds of fun until you have to deal with what goes on inside a genius' brain. It's not all clarity and happiness there. There's a constant search for more, being driven and focused so much that all you want or need is the next new challenge.

Ultimately, after several days to run through a bunch of scenarios, I think Anderson Silva just lost his path. By that I mean, he's worked so hard for so long and been so great, he didn't care anymore about winning. He wanted to do things on his own terms. And you know what, doing things on his own terms has worked out pretty darn well for him so far. He was going to put on a show. He was going to showcase his talents and  win and move on. The path he was going down was, frankly, boring to him. In the eventuality of the outcome and in the challenges it presented.

His intent was to win and keep moving, but it wasn't for his legacy or to defend the belt again, it was just a means to an end. You can't tell me that a guy concerned with his legacy and how history would remember him would fight a person that way. You think Georges St-Pierre is going out there and crazy legging it?

Silva has been so undeniably brilliant in the UFC that with the mentality he has to have to be a fighter, he felt like he could not be harmed. Not by Chris Weidman, not by a grizzly bear.

What makes - let me say that again, what MAKES - Silva the best fighter on the planet is that he did things his way. He finished fights, he displayed his craft, and he was able to execute that like no one else.

The ending of the fight left more questions than answers. It didn't discredit Silva (aside from the showboating) and it didn't undo what Weidman accomplished (as he put it, Silva has done what he did in the ring to a lot of other fighters and they couldn't finish him). Hopefully what it does do is give Silva a chance to refocus himself. To remember what losing feels like. What being mortal feels like. Maybe when Silva is at home in Brazil three weeks from now he'll realize that his "boredom" and taking the UFC for granted has cost him a small piece of his legacy that even a dominant rematch win won't get back. He's lost the opportunity to close to book on any GOAT for this lifetime at least.

This isn't boxing. In MMA everyone loses. But the manner and style in which Silva seemingly threw everything away leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouth. If he was to lose to Weidman or Jon Jones or GSP, fans who respect and revere him want to see him go out fighting, not trying to be Neo.

It'd be insane, but not impossible that Jones and GSP both lose their next two fights and all of a sudden we're redoing this whole conversation and Jose Aldo is the best fighter on the planet. But I'd say the odds of GSP losing while breakdancing or Jones losing reciting a scene from MacBeth aren't likely. Should they lose, they'll lose fighting. And while Silva was doing what he wanted, he was doing his best to win, it wasn't what he needed to do. In the fight game, no matter who you are, there's a difference.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Looking for a Fight @ UFC 162 - Silva v. Weidman

Anderson Silva is pure magic inside the Octagon. (bleacherreport.com)

A lot of the time it's important to take a look at and appreciate some of the more unheralded fights on a UFC pay-per-view. Just because a fight isn't the main event doesn't mean it won't be entertaining, and it certainly has the potential to be fight of the night. Times like this though, at UFC 162 in Las Vegas on Saturday, no disrespect to Cub Swanson or Frankie Edgar or Chris Leben, but this is Anderson Silva's show.

The 38-year-old middleweight kingpin puts his title on the line for the first time since the anti-climactic Silva Sonnen II almost a year ago to the date (he threw in a light heavyweight match against Stephan Bonnar in between). Silva has been and is the most electrifying fighter the UFC has ever had. Apart from two fights that basically shouldn't have happened (Thales Leites and Demian Maia) Silva has finished every single opponent in the Octagon. In fact, his last decision was September 11, 2004 against Lee Murray.

Since then, there have been elbows, knees, front kicks and chokes exectued by Silva with near perfection. His toughest fight was Silva Sonnen I, where he submitted Sonnen after being dominated for 4.5 rounds. This might be his most memorable fight to date, but certainly not his most memorable highlight.

What Silva is able to do in the cage is unlike what anyone else can do. When he fights it is like a national holiday. Coincidentally, with his first title defense in a year, his bouts are starting to be literal holidays.

The fantastic thing about MMA though is that no matter what you've done, what you've accomplished, or who you are there is always a new challenge. People will poke holes and cast doubts, that's normal, but with the UFC there's always a new contender. Sure if you're Silva list that contender line isn't as robust as say, Jon Jones', but each person that squares off against Silva has a chance to win or at least push the long-time middleweight kingpin.

This is the opportunity bestowed on Chris Weidman. The #1 contender is 9-0 and after a signature win against Mark Munoz, he was being talked about as a serious threat to Silva's reign thanks to his elite wrestling and apparenlty even more elite jiu-jitsu. Weidman, however, has been injured and he too has been out of action for a year. In hearing him talk, it doesn't seem like a deterrent, only a better chance to prepare for a potentially life changing moment.

Much of the hype surrounding this fight has been built around other fighters saying that Weidman can win. Chael Sonnen, Georges St-Pierre, Frank Mir ... the list goes on of fighters that haven't sided with The Spider in this upcoming fight. Now, you have to look at where these fighters motivations really are. Does Chael want Silva to win? No. GSP's jiu-jitsu coach also coaches Weidman. When you're Anderson Silva and you've wrecked your share of faces in the UFC, you won't have to look far to find a fighter or two who wouldn't like to see some of that brutality served back to the champ.

The fact that Silva is so dominant and that the UFC appears to be making a big deal about fighters giving some hype worth quotes could lead many a Silva fan to skepticism. This shouldn't underrate the skills Weidman has shown in the cage. He does possess the skills that have given Silva the most trouble in his time fighting for the UFC. Wrestling and the ground game (not sure if he has a flying scissor heel hook in his back pocket) are areas where the tall, limb-lengthened champ was dominated by Sonnen in their first fight, and clearly an area where he would be less dangerous than on the feet.

However, this is a gameplan that Silva has gone against before. As the old addage goes, the fight always starts on the feet, well, when you're fighting Silva this is most notably the case. When Weidman engages Silva, he won't just be looking for a take down, he'll be defending against severe leg kicks, the best fast-twitch movements in all of MMA, and oh yeah, he might just get a front kick to the face if he's not careful.

And when Weidman is able to get close, if he wants to try to take Silva down that way, he'll have some knees to the ribs to deal with.

Yes, Weidman's wrestling style is far more of the shoot in, double-leg variety, but he has to keep all options open to not be predictable. There is a dangerous test here, but I think the greater challenge will be in Weidman's end, not Silva's.

BREAKDOWN

Have I bought into the hype for this fight? Has the UFC marketing push brainwashed me? No. I'll watch any Anderson Silva fight with great joy. Since this is MMA, anything could happen, and anyone can win at any time. So nothing is guaranteed.

When I do look at this fight though, I see Weidman having a very tough time closing the distance against Silva. Weidman is suprememly athletic and tough, but he'll have to get through a lot in order to lay his hands on Silva. I say this not only in the wrestling game, but also in Weidman's striking game. He is a pressure and in your face kind of fighter that Silva handles very well.

For the takedowns, this is obviously something both fighters will be aware of. I have enough respect to Weidman to imagine he'll be able to take Silva down and might squeak out a close round or two as a result. Silva does have good take down defense. I'm buying that his rib was busted in Silva Sonnen I, hence Chael being able to take him down at will, but at no other time has he gone down that easily.

I keep coming back to my respect for Weidman. He fought the tough fights, came back from injury, had a great belief in himself. As a result I think he won't quit or be scared of Silva. He's mentally strong enough to push past that. However, I think his toughness, his constant need to pressure, and his overall lack of superior skills compared to Silva will be his downfall. I think Silva keeps Weidman at bay with leg kicks and great movement, and if Silva can block or clinch up with Weidman early on and do some damage, that will be a huge thing moving forward for Weidman's gameplan.

I don't think Weidman is backing down, and I'm not sure how good his chin is, but I do think he'll give the fans one hell of a fight. I can already picture Dana White proclaiming how fantastic this fight was and how much heart Weidman showed. I'm going to say 3rd round TKO for Silva after a close first two.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: What's in a Save when Brandon League is Ruining your Fantasy Team?

 This was the only handshake Brandon League would get last night in LA. (espn.com)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

If there's one thing that could ruin Puig-a-rama in LA, it's Brandon League. The woe-not yet-begone closer of choice for the Dodgers blew his 4th save of the season last night. Even worse, he did so coming off a 3-hit game from Yasiel Puig and took a win away from the holiest of holys Clayton Kershaw. If there was ever a time to seriously consider preemtively dropping League, it's now.

League had been working off of 7 straight appearances that didn't lead to a Dodgers L (5 saves, 1 win, 1 blown save), so there is still a little bit of juice to squeeze from this closer, but it's not looking bright. The plague that is Brandon League has been infecting fantasy owners all season. Either you have him and he's scuffling his way to 13 saves with a 6.00 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and a barely there 4.88 K/9, or you have Kenley Jansen waiting in the wings and have been begging and pleading for LA manager Don Mattingly to let the other blue glove drop and bring in the big man for 9th inning duties. Either way, it's about time to accept that League as the closer isn't going to work out.

Sure, many have said this for quite some time. Many ever since the Dodgers signed League to a ridiculous $22M contract in the off-season after the Dodgers acquired League mid-season. I guess the LA brass shook free a couple of coins from their Aston Martin's cup holder and it was burning a hole in their pockets.

Jansen served admirably last year as closer with 25 saves and dialed up 99 Ks. However, continual hear murmurs put him out of commission during the end of the year, and it appears the Dodgers didn't want their closer to be a question mark. So against common sense, League took the reigns in April.

It really hasn't been as brutal as everyone makes it out to be for League. He's only blown 4 saves this year with most of the damage being done in non-closer related work, but the peripherals all speak to his inability to get the outs necessary to close out games. It's been a smoke and mirrors act thus far for League, which is disappointing as he does sling a mid-90's sinker and did very well filling in for Jansen at the end of 2012. 

The biggest reason the be-Leaguered have pointed to League keeping the gig is his paycheck, but with the Dodgers losing, Puig looking to bump $85 million man Andre Ethier to the pine most certainly in the case of League's job security (as in many) money is not an issue for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

As a League owner in many formats, I took this oppotunity to purge him from my roster - if anything just out of frustration. I'm usually carrying 3-4 closers on a team, and if I could cut bait on League for (I'm fully expecting Jansen to be already owned) Rex Brothers, Vinny Pestano, Trevor Rosenthal, or a Justin Wilson type, or adding another good position player or starter; I am.

I think Jansen will be used in high leverage situations: 8th inning, 1-run leads, or now if League lets a couple runners on. Ultimately, it will take League to bomb out in multiple outings for the axe to finally fall, but for my WHIP and ERA I'm not waiting. The saves at this point aren't worth the aggravation of holding onto League. I'm only keeping him on teams where I'm desperate for saves and there are no other options. Even in those leagues I may waiver a bit. 

I was a believer in League heading into the season. I didn't think it'd be pretty. I knew Jansen would have the nicer numbers, but when things are going this polar you can't keep expecting League to get the call.



The Funkman says: "This is unbelievable. Brandon League, for shame!"

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: Unpopular Opinion Alert - Rookies

Tony Cingrani should be back in the majors soon. You really shouldn't care. (cbssports.com)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

h/t Unpopular Opinion Alert to Jacoby +Grantland 

Maybe it is just me, but in this post Mike Trout world that we live in, the focus on prospects affecting fantasy teams has never been higher. There's more written, talked about, and added rookies than ever before. Now, this also appears to be rather reasonable as you can see (this is where I'd have a table showing the average performance of the top 10 rookies over the past 10 years ... you know, if i had time and a research team) that it does appear that rookies are getting to the bigs and having a bigger impact more than ever before.

I'm giving kudos to the advanced stats and scouting community for better honing the skills of prospects and deploying them appropriately once they reach the bigs. Just because you're Darin Ruf and hit a massive amount of homers in the minors doesn't mean your MLB material.

So I can understand when the next big prospect gets called up there will be a lot more fantasy owners perking up their ears. What I don't understand is why owners can't differentiate star prospects from just regular ones. Hey, I know, I know there's a vast history of top prospects bottoming out and 13th round picks making good and no matter how aggressive scouts and sabermatricians look at ballplayers this will undoubtedly be true forever, but there are prospects to give a look see and there are prospects to get excited about. 

A group of prospects made their debut this year to more fanfare than actual production, and while they haven't been disasters, these are guys that I'm more than happy to look past in 2013 and even more so down the road. So at the risk of causing some prospect lovers to go nuts, here's why I don't like these prospects.

Tony Cingrani, SP - Reds

Cingrani was a guy I wasn't interested in at all. His deceptive delivery and lack of a secondary pitch screamed of once through the league type guy. Well, that one time through the league was pretty great. In 6 starts he struck out 41 batters in 33 innings. He started to struggle a bit in his last two starts before he was sent back to AAA once Johny Cueto was healthy, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt as just rough starts. Not project any downward trend.

Well, with Cueto set to go back to the DL, you can expect Cingrani back in the bigs next week. I'm sure he'll pitch fine, but he strikes me as more of a great bullpen pitcher. Not just a LOOGY, but like a Sean Marshall type. Plus, Cueto is expected to be on the DL for the minimum amount of time, so Cingrani should be returning to the minors shortly.

Nolan Arenado, 3B - Rockies

Can we please not use the, "He plays half his games in Coors" excuse for Arenado? Sure, he has the potential to hit for power, but that's been non-existent. Along with his inability to draw a walk, his value is greatly diminished in Colorado. This was more of an Unpopular Opinion a couple of weeks ago, but now it's just obvious.

Michael Wacha, SP - Cardinals

I'm not one to turn my nose up at the Cardinals. They have the best farm system and best major league team in all of baseball. So when a touted prospect comes up, you should take notice. But when people start talking about Wacha like he's Shelby Miller or a potential ace, it's just not true. Wacha has developed some better than average secondary pitches, but long-term, if the Cards could pencil him in as their 3rd or 4th starter, I'm sure they'd take that. 

Yasiel Puig, OF - Dodgers

Puig exploded onto the scene as Dodgers rookies have a habit of doing. I'm more optimistic about Puig than the other prospects mentioned just because since he is from Cuba, I feel his low ranking on prospect lists is mainly not knowing what to make of the guy since he has virtually zero minor league experience. He has the tools and natural strength to make a big impact, and we've already seen some of that already. Ultimately though, you have to shake your head when you hear comps of Bo Jackson

There will always be Brien Taylors and Matt Bushs but the time to act is when the Zack Wheelers  and Oscar Taverases get the call. Nothing is wrong with taking a flier, after all, that's really what these prospects are, but once you have them keep expectations in check.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Fantasy Funkhouser: Judge Reinhold - Making the Case for ... Corey Kluber

Corey Kluber is worth a look in fantasy. (Getty)
Fantasy Funkhouser will review all things Fantasy Baseball. After all, life is a small sample size.

In spite of being 3-7 over their past 10 games, the Cleveland Indians have exceeded expectations in 2013 under Terry Francona. You don't enter June .5 games back of the all-mighty Detroit Tigers without some luck, but what always comes through in the wash is talent and players stepping up. The Indians have had their fair share of players performing at high levels. Justin Masterson has been a Cy Young candidate so far, Mark Reynolds  has 41 RBI, and Carlos Santana appears to be putting together a full season this year carting around a .390 OBP. These are all subject to change - for better or worse - as the season progresses, but since we are into June, there's no reason to take this team lightly.

One player that hasn't gotten much attention thus far has been starting pitcher Corey Kluber. There's probably good reason for this. He's been overshadowed by Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, and an impressive but recently struggling Zack McAllister. All of these guys have more interesting story lines than the 26-year-old former 4th round draft pick, but his time is coming. He's only started 7 games thus far, his last being a 2 IP rain shortened outing, but what he has shown thus far shows all the indications of a productive season.

The main indicator that caught my attention is the 9.55 K/BB ratio. That's tasty. Any time you can strike out a high amount of players and keep those walks down, it's a great way to stay out of trouble. Take out a horrific start at Detroit (no one other than SP1 and select SP2 should be making those starts) his numbers bounce back even more so. His WHIP is a favorable 1.22, and since we can't erase starts in Detroit from the record book, his ERA of 4.36 should settle once his .342 BABIP does. 

Kluber certainly sent some flairs into the sky on May 26th when he chucked 10K's at Fenway. He was on his way to what looked to be another impressive outing 5 days later against Tampa that was, as mentioned rained out.

He has a tricky start coming up against the Yankees, but in deeper leagues I'd add him and watch from the bench. The Yankees aren't the Yankees, but there's no telling what can happen in the Bronx. If he dominates the Yanks his value will only go up. Ultimately what you're looking at is a pitcher that can get you K's and low peripherals. It wouldn't surprise me if he finished the season as the Indians second best pitcher. For what is shaping into a good team, that's a nice bargain to find.