Thursday, November 8, 2012

Looking for a Fight: UFC on Fuel 6

Will you be asleep while people are being put to sleep? (espn.com)

Sleeping in on a Saturday morning has become a bit overrated. Although it's never been a big deal for me. When I was young enough to enjoy television, I'd wake up at 6am, hop out of bed and go watch TV for most of my Saturday morning. I would want to watch this kids game show based around video games. The only thing I can remember about it, is the final "challenge" was running through a fake video game store, grabbing any game you could and velcro-ing it to your body (each kid had a velcro vest they would wear), and in the end I think there was a slide involved. Completely lame, but as a 6 year-old, all I wanted was to be on that show.

By the time I grew into my teenage years, I was never a pro at sleeping in, but at least made an effort to try. I knew that the earlier I woke up, the earlier my dad would send me out to do yard work. So if I was up and moving at 9am; I'd be working alone until like 11am when my brothers would finally get out of bed.

College, of course, was my sleeping in prime on Saturdays. My college was D-III, and all football games started at 11am. I never made it to one. There wasn't much motivation to go in the first place, but then tack on being out til the early morning, probably hung over, and hungry for some diner food, any effort to wake up early and not sleep in would have been a waste of time.

Now, as I age, I'm back to the Saturday mornings where I don't necessarily sleep in, but I'm also compelled to wake up early. This started when I would watch soccer. Fox Soccer Channel, ESPN, and next season NBC Sports Network air live British Premier League matches starting early in the morning - like 7am since it's live from England. So when my team, Arsenal, would be programmed to play, I'd be up early and even set an alarm (! on a Saturday morning) to catch the action.

It is worth noting that due to my work schedule, I was pretty much automatically waking up by 6:30am anyway. And also, the way Arsenal's season is going, my early Saturday mornings might soon be a thing of the past.

So I'd wake up, turn on the game, french press some freshly ground coffee beans and make an omelette and relax. I continue to enjoy this process immensely. When it comes to this Saturday mornings UFC card live from Macao, China there is no question as to if I will be up for the 9am ET live event, as I probably would have been finishing up a pot of coffee and finished updating my fantasy football line-ups by then.

The question remains for those not so morning motivated to interrupt their sleep. In today's day and age, there's DVR and TIVO to make your decision simple. But beyond that, this fight card isn't one to excite nor one that will make it hard to sleep the night before.

In their inaugural trip to China, the UFC hasn't exactly put a lot of fighters with big names potential title contenders on this card. While it's par for the course to trot out countrymen on foreign located cards, so China isn't exactly booming in the realm of actual combat sports.

They've been notably better in the fictional realm of combat sports.

The card not only has no potential #1 contender fights, there isn't a fighter on the entire card that will probably ever be a #1 contender, with the possible exception being Dong Hyun Kim. But again, that'd be a stretch considering how packed 170 has become.

While there are notable fights with fighters looking to call it a career or reestablish themselves as a regular UFC fighter, there aren't even match-ups that in it of themselves seem to portend to an exciting fight.

This aspect is the one I find the most puzzling. To put together an entire card, where obviously you're not going to get a big main event, but to fill it with fighters that don't jump off the page as an exciting fight is something I hardly remember the UFC ever doing. Granted with the end of the year upon us, many of those highlight reel guys already booked in a crazy busy finish to 2012 that might have tied Joe Silva's hands a bit.

Sure Rich Franklin always shows up for a fight, and Cung Le might have some flashy kicks up his iron fists, but it would be shocking if Franklin busted out the Rich Franklin dazed face against Le. In MMA, Franklin's diverse skill set is more than enough to neutralize the smaller Le. Also, a fight like Mac Danzig v Takanori Gomi, I mean, I feel like we've been here a hundred times before with both of these guys.

For my fight pick, I'm opting for the unknown in Thiago Silva v Stanislav Nedkov. Silva was once quite feared in the light heavyweight division before injuries, losses, and submitting something other than human urine for his mandated post fight piss test (which he served a 1-year suspension for) after beating Brandon Vera. Now that Silva is sufficiently humiliated and presumably healthy it'll be interesting to see if he can still rattle some noggins with his punching power.

One guy that certainly can do that is Nedkov. He KO'd Luiz Cane in the first round of his UFC debut, and by all accounts is not a guy to mess around with. The 30 year old is similar to Silva in that they don't bring much grappling to the cage. This is a stand 'em and bang 'em affair, and the best shot we've got for a really exciting fight.

BREAKDOWN

At this point, Silva is hardly the guy anyone remembers as a Top 10 fighter at 205. Winning only 1 of his last 4 fights, along with the suspension doesn't put him in the UFC's favor either. He's going to have to come out swinging to put on a good show and to protect himself from gassing, as he tends to do.

I wish I knew more about Nedkov, but information on him is limited, not only in the UFC, but in Wikipedia. A 7-0 record in Bulgaria doesn't mean much, but it's something; and his impressive win of Cane was a good welcoming card, but there's a lot to get to know about Nedkov. That's why I'll be watching to see what he's got going for him.

Just because I am so down on Silva, I'm going to choose Nedkov 3rd round TKO. Again, I know nothing about his strategy or cardio, but I'd imagine he'll try to resist Silva's opening overture and try to drag him deep into the fight. Unless of course Silva gets careless and clocked.

And if that's not enough to get you to tune in, there will be Chinese ring girls!

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 10

Doug Martin earned his Ray Rice comparison on Sunday. (deadspin.com)

It's been quite a year for fantasy rookies. Robert Griffin III started the party off right with his highlight reel plays. For the first half of the season his Cam Newton 2.0 impression netted him the top slot in the fantasy rankings and leaving owners with the issue of trying to trade the QB they thought would be leading their fantasy team to glory.

RGIII has started to level out a bit, but he's still as exciting a players as there is to watch. The Redskins aren't nearly as good as they've played, and that's thanks to RGIII.

There are 6 rookies (RGIII, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Andrew Luck, Alfred Morris, and Stevan Ridley) in the top 25 fantasy player ranks going into week 10. Let's look at a couple of guys that made their mark on Sunday.

Andrew Luck had been more of a leader of men than a fantasy focal point. His surprising 5-3 Colts are 2nd in the AFC South and with a quick turnaround Thursday night against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars could be in a prime position to make the playoffs. Well, Luck made his fantasy presence known this past Sunday, throwing for an NFL Rookie Record 433 passing yards in a win over the Miami Dolphins.

The guy is doing all you can ask for on the field. He's making his teammates better and under tough circumstances with first year head coach Chuck Pagano undergoing successful treatments for leukemia being out for most of the season; Luck has taken a young mix of players and made them a formidable team. All you would hear about Luck pre-draft was that he was "pro ready." That's a nice term and all, but seeing him in action you really begin to know what that means. His poise and maturity running an NFL offense is shocking. He's able to recognize blitzes and pass coverage to exploit a team's weakness. There are some QB's that have been in the league a decade that can't do that. Along with his smarts, the physical skills are obviously there. He is extremely accurate, daring, and blends pocket presence with mobility on the level of a Ben Roethlisberger or Luck's most frequent comparison, John Elway. For all the praise that is, frankly, overdue for what Luck has done, his time in the Week 9 spotlight lasted about 40 minutes. Why?

J'adore Doug Martin. 
Because in Oakland, California, Doug Martin was slashing and gashing the Oakland Raiders. The Stockton native and Boise State alum dropped 251 rushing yards and 4 TDs causing his owners to swoon like Peppy Le Pew in one of the greatest fantasy weeks ever. After a less than productive couple of weeks, Martin now has this performance coming off his 214 total yard 2 TD performance two weeks ago in Minnesota.

Martin, at this point, is shaping up to be one of the top fantasy players this season. While I wouldn't rule against selling high on him, if you can get some great pieces in return, outside of him hitting the rookie wall I think Martin will be able to continue his duel threat destruction for the rest of the year. The injury to Carl Nicks didn't show itself against the weak Oakland run defense, but it will at some point. However, out of Martin's remaining games the only tough ones appear to be at Denver Week 13 and at Atlanta the last week of the season. But it's time to play my favorite game of looking ahead to the playoff weeks, and he'll be facing New Orleans and St. Louis. Yummy, yum.

Like Pepe, we're not all successful in love, or fantasy rookies. Let's see some potential plays this week.

T.Y. Hilton has been on the tip of my tongue for weeks. Now it's time to click the + button. (Getty)

T.Y. Hilton, WR - IND (8% owned) @JAX

Makes sense to focus on another rookie or two. So what if they're not in the Top 25 or even 50. Ranks ain't nothing but a number.

Hilton has been a guy that's been mentioned a lot without producing significant fantasy output. Two things have changed recently that have made him much more interesting now than say 3 weeks ago. First is that he's been under the tutelage of Reggie Wayne which is clearly beginning to pay dividend. Hilton has topped 5 receptions for two straight weeks and is becoming an increasingly favorite target of Luck. Second, the player I thought would be Luck's security blanket Colby Fleener has been injured opening up targets for Hilton. I'm not sure how much it would cost to land this Hilton, but it's probably cheaper than a stay at the Paris Hilton.

Joique Bell, RB - DET (19%) @MIN

Another victim of the Doug Martin Fantasy Domination was Mikel Leshoure. He had 3 TD scampers in the red zone and made himself a strong case to be the Lions top back. With Javid Best injured as per usual, undrafted rookie Bell has become a solid weapon out of the backfield for his running and pass catching. Leshoure doesn't have the cleanest health record, and Bell is still getting TDs as a secondary back making him worth a flex play.

Chris Ivory, RB - NO (4%) ATL

Opportunity seems to be the issue for Ivory, as it is most running backs in the Big Easy. With Darren Sproles going down for 4-6 weeks with a broken hand, there was a mad dash for Pierre Thomas, but while Thomas is helpful, he doesn't do what Sproles does. In fact, none of the NOLA back do except for Travaris Cadet, but it appears Cadet's Sproles impersonation isn't going to net him any fantasy love. Ivory is a big, tough runner that can provide a good change of pace for the speedy Saints offense. Thomas is more of a pass catching threat, but Ivory has the ability to outplay Mark Ingram as the grind it out back.

Mike Goodson, RB - OAK (11%) @BAL

We all knew this was coming. The Darren McFadden injury has occurred. And it's a fantasy football doozy. The high ankle sprain is tough to gauge when everything will be fully healed and a player will be ready to go. With McFadden's injury history, I'd say his chances of being productive again this year are minimal. He was barely productive when he was playing averaging barely over 3 yards per carry. Overall, McFadden's performance is good for 29 out of 30 ranked backs via Football Outsider's DVOA ranks.

With that being said, Run DMC's back-up is also out with a high ankle sprain, but this appears to be much less severe than McFadden's. Goodson would be a speculative add in that a.) McFadden is out for a while b.) Goodson is healthy c.) Oakland's run game has been horrible as is and d.) the Raiders don't just pack up their lockers and forfeit the rest of the season. At this point of the year though, if you can add a running back that will get a bulk of the carries for a team, it's worth it.


PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Golden Tate, WR - SEA (12%) NYJ

Tate hauled in 2 TD passes on Sunday for a less than eye catching 28 yards receiving. He's become a bit of an end zone threat with 5 TDs, but I guess after that miracle Monday Night Fake Refs call against the Packers, he's got some magic on his side. Like most Seattle players not named Marshawn Lynch, home is where the performance is. Tate isn't a play maker, but rather a guy you need to catch TDs to be any kind of factor on fantasy game day.

THE 1%

Rod Streater, WR - OAK (0%) @BAL

As highlighted in the Goodson write up, the Oakland run game has been poor. I don't necessarily envision Goodson or any other back on their roster to change that, so combine that with constantly being behind in games means that Oakland will be throwing a lot. They really already have been throwing the ball judiciously this year. Denarius Moore and Brandon Myers have benefited, but Streater might be looking to make his mark with Darius Heyward-Bey not looking quite right since his concussion earlier this season. Streater needs to become more consistent and establish his role as a possession receiver to become a key part of the Raiders pass game.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 9

Michael Vick was Andy Reid's choice. And while it looked brilliant for a season, it's been a precipitous drop from glory. (AP)
FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 50% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

As I mentioned last week, this week would be declaration week. A time in which teams have shown their true colors and we can safely assess their prospects as well as individual player "realness" in regards to continued performance and ability to produce through the second half of the season. Hot streaks be damned, each player and team has had more than enough time to put up or shut up.

The Eagles, and not just Michael Vick, are falling apart.

On Sunday, the Eagles lost their first game ever in Andy Reid's tenure after a bye week (12-1). Now that record does mean a little something, but ultimately it's more a novelty record than anything. Overreacting to a crushing loss to the only unbeaten team in football is nothing to be up in arms about, but for the first time in Reid's career in Philadelphia, this team truly seems lost. Appropriately the Eagles dawned black jerseys because Sunday might as well have been a funeral.

There have been good teams and bad, teams that needed a little kneading to turn make that dough rise and achieve success, but this Eagles team is one that has no identity or purpose.

A lot of the conversation circles around Reid and Michael Vick. This isn't surprising, but while Vick has amassed and unseemly amount of turnovers this year, he's not the only person to blame. Most of the blame should in fact fall on Reid. Reid has turned his solid success into a Belichick-ian or Shanahanny type reign where all power and personnel decisions go through him. Out of virtually any team the Eagles have ever had in his tenure, this is Reid's vision. He made Vick one of the most dominant QB's in football (not just a flashy runner, but a true QB threat), he extended DeSean Jackson and signed Nnamdi Asomugha to large extensions. His play calling and clock management have always been in question, but his stubbornness to adapt and improve is what is ultimately leading to his downfall.

It isn't a stretch to say that the Andy Reid that coached his first game in 1999 with Doug Pederson is virtually no different from the coach that took the filed Sunday and led a listless team to an underserving 3-4 record (they could have easily been much worse). Sure he has some more gravitas, some wins and NFC titles under his belt, but the strategic and game management side have only grown more tiresome and frustrating. Once Reid was able to successfully take the reigns of this team a couple of years ago, team owner Jeffrey Lurie, who always has supported Reid, let him know that continuing to fail to adapt, to fail to make key subtle personnel decisions (improving draft picks, developing players, not just QB's) would put Reid in the cross-hairs should the Eagles fail to perform again.

Reid has responded by doing more of the same thing. Exposing Vick by having him throw all game long. Neglecting the run game and establishing or at least attempting to keep the opposing team's defense on their heels. This was an Eagles team, under the helm of Vick, two years ago that was one of the most explosive offenses in football. Now, they've been relegated to dinks and dunks. Wide receiver screens and quick slants to Jason Avant. There is a clear realization that either Reid has no confidence in Vick or himself.

This isn't to get Vick off the dunk tank seat. He's very much in line as his lack of decision making ability quickly enabled defenses to expose weaknesses and make life in the pocket for Vick hell. Vick hardly, if ever, audibles at the line to change protections or make decisions based upon what he sees from other teams. Sure, he'll kill a play or make a quick change from time to time, but when it comes to recognizing what the other team intends to do and fully controlling the situation like the Manning brothers or Tom Brady it's clear he is incapable. If another team wanted to constantly blitz their safeties, you don't think that Eli Manning would make them pay?

Vick's increased difficulties are largely on his shoulders. His accuracy has completely dropped off from two years ago, and along with Reid, he should be no longer a member of the Eagles come 72 hours after the final whistle at the Super Bowl where a $15 million roster bonus would kick in.

Reid took this team as far as he could, but it wasn't good enough. The Eagles are still one of the younger teams in football, so a new coach has a lot to work with. They can build around LeSean McCoy and Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, but with a new regime primed to take the stage and no reliable starting QB, it may be a long time coming before the Eagles will again be a threat in the NFC East. (My head coach pick: Jon Gruden)

A couple other declarations:

Andrew Luck and RGIII are as good as advertised - baseball has Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, football has these guys. Worth noting that while RGIII has garnered more headlines, Luck leads RGIII in many of Football Outsider's DVOA ranks.

The Buc$ aren't half bad - aside from the force that Doug Martin has become and a much improved defense under first year head coach Greg Schiano, the Bucs have been my favorite team to bet on all year. They are constantly underrated by Vegas, and have the ability to keep in close games whether it's a defensive battle or a high scoring affair.

Something is happening with Calvin Johnson - somehow people have figured out a way to stop him from destroying everything in his path. Getting at Matthew Stafford helps, but the fact that Johnson has 1 TD to date in spite of increased targets is an anomaly.

How important is a head coach? - The Saints must be saying a lot. While they've always been a suspect defensive team, without Sean Payton, they've become simply a vehicle for Drew Brees to put up stats.

Alfred Morris is starting and good - easily my biggest missed call thus far has been Morris. He's managed to not only start regularly under Mike Shanahan, but perform well enough to earn Terrell Davis comparisons. I even just traded Brady for him in my one fantasy league (RGIII is my starter).

Don't sleep on AJ Green - he's starting to earn more well deserved attention. Fellow draft mate Julio Jones is getting a lot of hype and we all know what Calvin Johnson has failed to live up to. Green is quickly vaulting into the upper echelon of wideouts. Also, Larry Fitzgerald who is long forgotten in Arizona will be opting out of his mega contract. He's too good to waste away there.

Time to declare some money makers in Week 9.

It was hard not to notice Jonathan Dwyer on Sunday for a lot of reasons. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Cecil Shorts, WR - JAX (11%) DET

It's time to open up my favorite file. The Alshon Jeffrey/Josh Gordon "Someone has to Catch Passes" file. With Blaine Gabbert dinged up and no Maurice Jones-Drew someone had to enjoy themselves against the Packers miserable pass defense Shorts was able to continue a solid season hauling in his 3rd TD pass of the season.

Danny Woodhead, RB - NE (38%) BYE

Especially in a PPR league, Woodhead appears to be the kind of dual threat back that can be helpful, you know, when he's not on a bye week. There's plenty of balls to go around in the Pats offense, it's always a question of which 2nd level offensive player for the Pats will be graced with a solid game.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB - PIT (46%) WAS

There are plenty of unhealthy options in Pittsburgh at running back. While Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman got their first couple of shots at the starting job, injuries have cleared a path for Dwyer. When Mendenhall is healthy you can expect him to get a shot at earning his job back, but with injuries mounting in Pittsburgh like they usually do, Dwyer has an opportunity to be a factor in the backfield.  

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Beanie Wells, RB - ARZ (11%) @GB

He's coming back from injury again. Feel free to waste money on him.

THE 1%

Ryan Broyles, WR - DET (7%) @JAX

Typically I like to try to get this done prior to 12 on Tuesdays because around then is when ESPN's Chris Harris drops his pick up list. Now, obviously, we're not in competition, but personally, I like to see who he picks and who I pick in a given week. A bit of a compare and contrast. Well due to the hurricane I got a bit delayed today, so I read Harris' article and his write up on Broyles is better than I could ever do.


Tuesday, October 23, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 8


Pass happy and catch crazy, Vincent Jackson almost had 3 TD's on Sunday. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

The NFL Regular Season is coming up on the half way point this week. A moment of silence as we reflect on a season that, as per usual, always feels like it just started. While it's about that time to make some season declarations (Note: idea for next week's column) we can still focus on the overall scope of the league. As mentioned a couple of weeks back, while running backs have been featured more this year than last, there are some guys that still like to throw the ball around. As such, match-ups are certainly there to be exploited, and with those poor match-ups comes the most volatile position in fantasy football, the wide receivers.

Value of wideouts are always minimized simply because any given week any stick-um-less player that runs routes can haul in 2 TD's and lah-dee-dah you're getting 18 points out of a guy projected for 4.50 - right, Randall Cobb?

In Week 7 there were 6 WR in the top 21 in scoring for the week. The first (#2 ranked scorer*) Vincent Jackson was a yard away from finishing #1 overall. Cobb was the third ranked scorer followed by Victor Cruz (who pulled off a 77 yard TD catch in the last minute of the game), the on-fire Jordy Nelson, and then 44-year-old Santana Moss (thanks for extending my career, RGIII), and Andre Roberts (former Lockration pick-up selection). So out of the top 6 scorers at wide receiver their average projected draft position was 88.3. 
*Per Yahoo! FFL the ranks are dictated not by overall points, but factors in that along with position and probably some other values and calculations that I have no idea about.  Jackson was technically the 4th highest scorer, but since he's a WR he was ranked #2. Make sense? Kind of? Well whatever, my point is going to remain the same.
While declaration time may have to wait a week, the group of QB's and RB's are certainly more solidified than they were earlier in the season. Jobs are less likely to be won or lost (and those jobs that are lost do you really want the new hire - John Skelton and Felix Jones, much?). Wide receivers offer the best opportunity for a big swing in production. It just so happens there are some talented receivers available in many leagues that could boom over the next half of the season. Let's focus on them first, then some RBs. Also, as we move along in the season, match-ups become more and more important, so I'll highlight who the player is playing in the upcoming week. 

As we throw our cash in the air, let's see who's hauling it in.


If Chris Givens is as good as he thinks he is, he can be a playmaker rest of the season. (Getty)

Titus Young, Sr., WR - DET (26%) SEA

Young had his best game of the season Monday night against Chicago, and yes, that is saying something. His 6 receptions tied his season high and his 81 yards set his season high. The only negative was he didn't score a TD, but apparently the Lions don't do that anymore. He had the second most targets behind Calvin Johnson, Young's longest reception was 23 yards, so he earned his 81, and Nate Burleson left the game with an injury. With zero run game to speak of and teams somehow figuring out how to negate MegaTron, it looks like after a rough start, Young could fulfill his sleeper status many experts had him pegged for. Although his talent was never in question, just what goes on in his cranium during the game. 

Chris Givens, WR - STL (6%) NE

Speaking of head cases, Givens does fall into this category. He has, what us Arsenal fans like to call Nicklas Bendtner disease. Basically it's unbelievable confidence in yourself and abilities, while things like sight and video and performance tend to work against your delusions. While some one's mouth can get them into trouble, Givens abilities have started to shine through in St. Louis as a deep threat.

Brandon LaFell, WR - CAR (20%) @CHI

While no one bought the Panthers early proclamation by now injured offensive lineman Ryan Kalil that these Panthers were Super Bowl threats, the wheels have really come off for Carolina. After the arbitrary mid-season firing of their GM, the Panthers are 1-5 and seem to be heading nowhere. For all Cam Newton did last year, he's been largely ineffective in this offense. Steve Smith hasn't continued his renaissance of last year, and the Carolina running backs...well they're nothing to tweet about.  One positive out of the narrow loss to Dallas last week was the delayed emergence of LaFell. He appeared to be the perfect counter to the speedy Smith, but with the Carolina offense in such a rut, who knows how or why things weren't clicking properly. His match-up this week is not good at all, but if you look past this week there are some goodies against Washington, Denver, and Tampa.

Andre Brown, RB - NYG (42%) @DAL

There was potential for a Brown breakout after Week 3, but a concussion and Ahmad Bradshaw have cooled that fire a bit. Brown came back to minimal work last week, but should build on that moving forward. Bradshaw is also battling a foot injury, but as we saw last year, that may not be enough to keep him out of a uniform. David Wilson may be more of the future, but for heavy workload, Brown has shown he can do it. 

Rashad Jennings, RB - JAX (27%) @GB

Here we go again. Maurice Jones-Drew lasted all of two plays last week due to some sort of foot injury. He's already been ruled out this week against Green Bay, and odds are it'll be a couple more weeks after that. Foot injuries aren't only tough to diagnose, they're tough to come back from. After all the contract posturing that dogged MJD in training camp, I'd be sure he'll take his time coming back from this. Now, Jennings is a serviceable replacement level back. But with this team, and this offense, I wouldn't want to own any Jacksonville players. If you're desperate for touches, then shoot for Jennings, but again, some players are back-ups for a reason. They just aren't that good.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

LaRod Stevens-Howling (18%) SF  

As mentioned before, we've been down this road. Felix Jones showed us how this usually plays out. In case you're talking yourself into LRS-H simply based on carries let's try to use some facts to dissuade you. 

He is averaging 3 yards per carry. The undersized back plays San Francisco next week, and after that Beanie Wells is supposed to return. The rest of the schedule after that is brutal. I'm not convinced he even still is the primary back with William Powell running well. Last week might have just been going with the hot hand.

He has an up-up-up hill battle to return any kind of fantasy value this year.

THE 1%

Vincent Brown, WR - SD (3%) INJURED

It's not out of the question that when Brown returns from injury around Week 9 that he'll be the best wide receiver the Chargers have. Sure there are issues with that team, but getting reps above Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem shouldn't be impossible to do.  For all that ails Philip Rivers this year, the one thing he continues to do is throw the football. Whether it ends up in the hands of a guy with lightning bolts on his helmet or the other team is completely up in the air, but that suits Brown's game very nicely. Good preemptive strike opportunity here.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

FAABulous: Fantasy Football Pick-ups Week 7

Shelling out some cash for Felix Jones is pretty much a requirement. (Getty)

FAABulous will recap the week of football activity and point fantasy owners where to spend their hard earned (not really) FAAB or waiver priority. Players will be owned in at most 30% of Yahoo! FFL. This is the one time where mo' money probably wouldn't mean mo' problems.

Any article about adding football players for your fantasy team this week will undoubtedly mention Felix Jones. The Cowboys back-up running back will re-assume a starting role for at least this week as incumbent/budding star DeMarco Murray has succumb to another injury in his young career.

It's another opportunity for Jones to show some consistency among the early flashes that had him pegged as the future star running back in Dallas. Jones was the 22nd pick in a pretty loaded draft, especially when you take a look at the running backs. Jones was the sentimental pick for owner Jerry Jones, who like Felix, is an Arkansas Razorback alumni (I'm told any and all similarities end there). After Jerry was unable to move up to draft Darren McFadden fourth overall, Felix was selected as the third RB in the draft after McFadden and Jonathan Stewart.

The running backs taken after Jones (in order): Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, and Jamaal Charles.

Outside of Rice - who clearly anyone 54 picks earlier probably should have considered - every one of those running backs have had their ups and downs, but outside of Smith, are clearly and definitively better than Jones.

The point of all of this is, yes, Jones hasn't been able to replicate the early explosiveness that highlighted the first 6 games of his career, but he is talented. When a player of DMM's magnitude goes down, there is a common perception to quickly add his back-up. Well, back-ups are back-ups for a reason. They aren't very good. This isn't always the case. Jones is a decent example. He has the talent and ability and plays for a team that should pack a punch on offense. What always bewilders me is when players that are clearly no good become FAAB darlings.

We all go for fliers, and we love to hit that homerun pick, but it rarely happens. More often than not, you get Vick Ballard or the oft-referenced Brandon Jackson from Green Bay several years back. Jackson is still serving 15 years of a 30 year fantasy prison sentence for all the FAAB dollars he stole. It's not his fault he failed fantasy wise. It's ours! Every owner that spent a large amount of money on a player that his own team dictated as a 2nd fiddle.

While running backs always seem to spring out of nowhere, it's important that when these situations come about, we still keep our heads. We don't get caught up on if this second year back-up is the next Arian Foster. Odds are he isn't. And in Jones' case, he'll be right back to the bench when DMM is healthy. Jones is an add for his potential, but know you're getting the same Jones that has been around for several years now.

Time to shop with our heads, not our hearts.

Felix Jones, RB - DAL (23% owned)

People may be chomping at the bit for Jones, but he's only the second most famous Felix this week.



Daryl Richardson, RB - STL (14%)

A funny thing happened last week when Stephen Jackson was declared healthy for the first time all year; he still split carries with Richardson. Richardson has done a good job sharing the load with Jackson, and it is a positive that he still got touches even with Jackson ready to roll. There's rumors that Jackson is on his way out in St. Louis, which makes sense, but as long as he's still on the roster, he's the best RB they have. Richardson will stick around, and clearly Jackson hasn't been the picture of health in his latter years. Richardson is worth a bench spot to see how this rides out.

Sidney Rice, WR - SEA (63%)

I wanted to put Rice as my Penny Saved this week, but I just...couldn't...do it. Rice has shown his talent before, and he's been gaining steam over the past three weeks. While the Seahawks are built around defense, special teams, and running in that order, Russell Wilson has shown himself able to at least get the ball deep on occasion.

Kendall Wright, WR - TEN (38%)

There was a lot of buzz around the young wideout and while he hasn't been a disappointment, necessarily, he hasn't had a big game yet. Part of that might relate to the teams he's faced thus far: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh. Easier times are ahead, starting this week with Buffalo. Wright has 33 receptions on the year, so he's been involved. Some easier match-ups will lead to bigger numbers even with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington around.

PENNY SAVED IS A PENNY EARNED

Montario Hardesty, RB - CLE (3%) 

Hardesty is the flip side to Felix Jones. People will see Trent Richardson is out, and hustle to pick up the back-up in Cleveland. Hardesty had a decent game last week, but he's never proved himself to be an every down back. If you're looking purely for a guy that will get attempts, then go for him. Other than that, I don't see much fantasy production coming his way. Especially with Brandon Weeden and Josh Gordon beginning an air show with each other.

THE 1%

Tom Crabtree, TE - GB (0%)

Don't look now, but the forever disappointing dynasty of Jermichael Finley in Green Bay may be slowly ending its reign. Tom Crabtree may not ultimately be the man to do it, but with yet another Finley year of inconsistency and dropsies, it's time to seriously start looking at other, more reliable options for Aaron Rodgers. Crabtree is what he is at this point, so maybe he can help with a fluky TD here or there, but let this be a warning sign for Finley owners. Time to make your escape.